sveumrules

Yeah, among 418 pitchers with at least 30 IP this year, Boyle’s 16.5% walk rate ranks 416th. Brewers batters’ 9.7% walk rate is 2nd in MLB (behind only the Judge Soto Show in the Bronx) so it should hopefully be a good match up for them.

21 Burnes (167 IP) 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ 84 AVG+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- 22 Burnes (202 IP) 135 K%+ | 77 BB%+ | 93 HR9+ 81 AVG+ | 72 ERA- | 78 FIP- 23 Burnes (193 IP) 115 K%+ | 97 BB%+ | 83 HR9+ 80 AVG+ | 77 ERA- | 86 FIP- 24 Burnes (159 IP) 100 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 87 HR9+ 97 AVG+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP- Obviously 2021 was never going to be any kind of multi season baseline, but the extent to which Corbin’s K rate has regressed to literal average would make me hesitant to dish out the 8/250 Boras will likely be shooting for this winter. The big jump in AVG+ really caught my eye too. Obviously pitching in front of the Brewers defense with +147 DRS (1st) from 2021-23 is a big difference from pitching in front of the Orioles with -1 DRS (21st) so far this year, but still pretty concerning either way.

The gap between AAA (especially the PCL where LAA has their affiliate) and the Majors is much wider than just a cusp. MLB Average 244/313/400 (4.41 R/G) IL Average 255/345/421 (5.14 R/G) PCL Average 268/357/446 (5.77 R/G)

Brewers and Athletics have matching 18 W - 12 L records since the All Star Break. Looks like Oakland’s hot streak has actually been going on since the beginning of July with their 25 W - 17 L record ranking 4th in MLB over that stretch.

...and a 30.9% K rate. Nolan Schanuel is kind of locked into 1B as the Angels 1st Round Pick (11th overall) in 2023 and one of their only decent players. When Hiura was up with LAA for a spell in July he started 4 games at 2B and 3 at DH. The last week or so the Angels have been giving those reps to Brandon Drury (264 PAs | 27 OPS+), Michael Stefanic (82 PAs | 80 OPS+), Niko Kavadas (13 PAs | -51 OPS+), and Jack Lopez (13 PAs | -100 OPS+). Pretty stiff competition.

Todd Helton had 61.8 career WAR | 46.6 peak seven WAR over 9,453 PAs with a 131 OPS+. Votto comes in at 64.5 career WAR | 46.9 peak seven WAR over 8,746 PAs with a 144 OPS+. Took Helton six years to get in. Guessing Votto comes in around there, maybe a little shorter since he doesn't have Coors Field hanging over his head and as you note he has always been a writer & fan favorite.

Bernie's been roasting the Cardinals all year... Despite A Huge Payroll Advantage, Cardinals Are Inferior To The Brewers. There’s No Excuse For That.

Over the last two years, covering 287 games and 2,553 innings, the Brewers have posted a 3.69 ERA | 4.25 FIP. That -0.56 margin is the best in MLB with Houston second all the way down at a -0.34 margin. The gap between the Brewers in 1st and Astros in 2nd is the same as the gap between the Astros in 2nd and the Cubs in 10th. Over those same last two years, the Rockies have posted a 5.61 ERA | 5.06 FIP. That +0.55 margin is the worst in MLB over that stretch by an even larger extent with the Cardinals second to worst with a +0.30 margin. Now obviously more goes into beating (or not beating) one's FIP than just defense and home ballpark, but the Brewers defense over the last two years has essentially been so good that their pitchers have gotten to pitch their games in the opposite of Coors Field.

Yup. Have to imagine that pitching in front of the Brewers defense (+64 DRS | 3rd) instead of Cincy’s (-34 DRS | 27th) has made some difference for Frankie too.

Timmerman has some pretty impressive numbers for an under the radar guy. Think he definitely would be getting more attention if there weren’t so many other arms from last years draft just going completely nuts. At a just turned 22 he is still about half a year younger than the average pitcher in the Carolina League. His 3.35 FIP ranks 10th among Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 50 IP. The only pitcher younger than him with a lower FIP was the recently traded Yujanyer Herrera. 9.91 K9 is good, but that 5.11 BB9 will probably need to come down as he moves up because he won’t keep on giving up 0.00 HR9 forever.

Looking at pitch usage, they’ve de-emphasized his splitter and slider in favor of more four seamers, cutters and sinkers… CIN: FA (33.8%) FC (17.2%) SP (21.2%) SI (16.4%) SL (11.4%) MIL: FA (41.0%) FC (20.5%) SP (10.8%) SI (23.2%) SL (4.6%) Run Values on the four seam and cutter have gone from -1.3 and -7.0 with the Reds to +2.1 each with the Brewers. It’s hard to measure command, but that’s what Location+ tries to do and Montas has improved slightly there too from 100 to 102. In terms of results it’s almost a complete script flip. His 85 K+ | 123 BB+ | 121 HR+ with the Reds were all on the wrong side of average. With the Brewers it’s been 105 K+ | 109 BB+ | 77 HR+

Eflin (35 ERA- | 72 FIP-) was shoving for the Orioles but just landed on the IL. Kikuchi (61 ERA- | 75 FIP-) has been a scooch better peripherally than Montas (62 ERA- | 86 FIP-). Lorenzen (67 ERA- | 115 FIP-) & Martin Perez (69 ERA- | 115 FIP-) have been in the neighborhood by run prevention but with ugly secondaries. Only two starts, but gotta throw one Bradley Blalock (68 ERA- | 69 FIP-) in there too.

Montas has posted a 2.57 ERA and the Brewers have won all four of his starts. Junis has a 5.40 ERA in 10 innings of low leverage relief work. Wiemer has hit 075/140/075 (-47 wRC+) in 43 AAA PAs with the Reds.

Brewers reliever depth is insane. Enoli Paredes, Rob Zastryzny and Kevin Herget have put up pretty ridiculous numbers in AAA and their brief MLB looks and still might not even make the cut for September and beyond... AAA combined 90.0 IP | 23 ER | 60 H | 32 BB+HBP | 125 K 2.30 ERA | 2.38 FIP | 1.02 WHIP MLB combined 33.0 IP | 5 ER | 17 H | 15 BB+HBP | 24 K 1.36 ERA | 3.43 FIP | 0.97 WHIP | +0.92 WPA

Obviously only four innings, but Yoho has a 0.01 FIP in Nashville. If he had one more strikeout it would be negative.

Hey, whaddya know, Brewers 17 W - 10 L record so far in the second half is tied for the 3rd best in all of MLB. In the 2nd half of 2018 they went 41 W - 24 L In the 2nd half of 2019 they went 42 W - 29 L In the 2nd half of 2021 they went 42 W - 28 L In the 2nd half of 2022 they went 36 W - 33 L In the 2nd half of 2023 they went 43 W - 28 L Guess it really shouldn't be that much of a surprise anymore. In the first half Brewers batters put up a 106 wRC+ (9th) | 4.80 R/G (8th) and 17.4 WAR (5th) so far in the second half they are at a 107 wRC+ (12th) | 4.74 R/G (9th) and 4.8 WAR (8th). In the first half Brewers SP posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 6.5 rWAR (15th) so far in the second half they are at an 82 ERA- (5th) and 2.6 rWAR (9th). In the first half Brewers RP posted an 81 ERA- (4th) and +7.76 WPA (2nd) so far in the second half they are at a 67 ERA- (3rd) and +2.75 WPA (3rd).

The hyperbole was so over the top. My favorite was Heyman at the NY Post… Mets Landing Craig Counsell As Next Manager An Absolute Necessity

Looks like Hall had a decent start from the box anyway… 6.0 IP | 1 R | 2 each H, BB, HBP | 4 K

Sweep of Cleveland improves the Brewers MLB best inter-league record to 29 W - 14 L.

438 innings in LF he is +5 DRS and -1 FRV. 453 innings in RF he is +9 DRS and +7 FRV. Among 93 OF with at least 500 innings this year his +14 DRS is 3rd and his +6 FRV tied for 16th. SABR Defensive Index which is used for Gold Glove purposes has him the top RF in the MLB at +7.9.

Good observation. Currently on pace for the first season since 2014 where there is no 100 Win team. There was a pretty decent article on the topic at Yahoo the other day that looked at some possible reasons why like injuries, new balanced schedule, and team building philosophies.

Had the same thought sequence last night when I was flipping to LAD/STL on commercials. Like, what kind of world are we living in where I’m hoping the Cardinals win a game in mid-August? FanGraphs has our chances of losing the division at 3.2% but out chances of securing the bye at 20.9% so for the next two days it’s Go Cards, I guess.

Today presents as the toughest game in the series from a pitching standpoint. Bibee leads Guardians SP in virtually every category at 127.1 IP | 84 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 118 K+ | 72 BB+ | 94 AVG+ | 87 WHIP+ with Cleveland going 18 W - 5 L in his 23 starts. Three Headed Bullpen Monster of Clase / Gaddis / Smith hasn't pitched since Tuesday either so they should all be fresh and ready to go too. Also wanted to check back in on how the Brewers have continued to bounce back strong after their respective three game losing streaks so far this year... started at 10 W - 3 L (0 W - 3 L) 7 W - 2 L (0 W - 3 L) 3 W - 0 L (0 W - 3 L) 16 W - 9 L (0 W - 3 L) 8 W - 4 L (0 W - 3 L) 8 W - 2 L (0 W - 3 L) 2 W - 1 L (0 W - 3 L) 13 W - 7 L (0 W - 3 L) 3 W - 0 L Following their two italicized mini swoons of 3 W - 6 L from 0427 to 0506 and 2 W - 7 L from 0704 to 0713 they responded with their two longest extended winning stretches since the beginning of the season in bold. That's some pretty impressive resilience from a team with the second youngest position player group in MLB per BRef, a rotation that doesn't pitch enough innings, and an overworked bullpen of castoffs without their all world closer until three weeks ago.

Tonight was Kwan’s 31st game with 5 AB, it was only the second of those 31 games in which he failed to record a hit.

Looking at how the Brewers have performed post-ASB I think their ideal lineup would be something like this... Chourio (101 PA | 178 wRC+) Contreras (104 PA | 157 wRC+) Mitchell (76 PA | 98 wRC+) Adames (101 PA | 132 wRC+) Hoskins (87 PA | 130 wRC+) Sanchez (36 PA | 167 wRC+) Frelick (81 PA | 45 wRC+) Ortiz (94 PA | 65 wRC+) Turang (89 PA | 28 wRC+) Chourio is fast and the best player on the team give him the most PAs, Contreras is the best all around hitter, Mitchell is the best lefty at the moment so he gets third to break up all the righties, Adames/Hoskins are your best regular run producers, El Gary fits the same mold in a smaller sample, after that its the struggle bunch so just went LRL to split the lefties. Monasterio (21 PA | 147 wRC+) and Haase (20 PA | 169 wRC+) have both performed the small handful of times their names have been called, I'd be calling Andruw a little more often for sure given recent performance of Joey/Brice, keep Sanchez DH only and use Haase behind the dish for Contreras off days. Bauers (52 PA | 88 wRC+) has been Bauers. Zooming out a bit here is the league average wRC+ at each batting order spot for each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 so far (with the Brewers wRC+ and league rank this year in parentheses at the end)... Batting 1st 103, 111, 106 (90 | 22nd) Batting 2nd 115, 114, 114 (107 | 18th) Batting 3rd 116, 111, 118 (139 | 7th) Batting 4th 109, 108, 106 (125 | 6th) Batting 5th 98, 103, 103 (93 | 22nd) Batting 6th 96, 94, 93 (80 | 23rd) Batting 7th 90, 89, 95 (119 | 3rd) Batting 8th 87, 86, 84 (107 | 6th) Batting 9th 81, 81, 75 (99 | 1st) So leadoff, #5 and #6 have been the weak spots this year for the Brewers. Number two has been below average by lineup position but still above average overall. #3, #4 and the bottom three spots have been where most of their big gains have come from.