sveumrules

Over the nine games since this thread was posted the Brewers have posted a 147 wRC+ (2nd in MLB) and scored 56 runs (1st in MLB). Not sure if that was the intended effect, but it worked anyway.

Hudson’s 24.1 IP rank 8th among relievers this year, Vieria’s 20.2 IP rank 32nd, Milner’s 19.1 IP rank 56th, Peguero’s 18.0 IP rank 82nd. Koenig’s 16.1 IP rank 137th. Two of the three best relievers on the team have thrown zero (Williams) and 10.2 IP (Megill) so far. Hudson’s the only reliever with any kind of real workload concern at this point and even then he’s been pretty carefully rested… 0331: 3.0 IP (four days off) 0405: 1.1 IP (two days off) 0408: 1.0 IP (no days off) 0409: 0.1 IP (three days off) 0413: 1.0 IP (no days off) 0414: 0.1 IP (two days off) 0417: 2.1 IP (three days off) 0421: 2.1 IP (two days off) 0424: 1.2 IP (one day off) 0426: 1.0 IP (two days off) 0429: 2.0 IP (one day off) 05/01: 1.0 IP (two days off) 0504: 2.0 IP (three days off) 0508: 2.0 IP (two days off) 0511: 1.0 0 IP (two days off) 0514: 2.0 IP So that’s zero days off (x2, only threw 0.1 IP each time), one day off (x2, only threw 1.0 IP each time), two days off (x7), three days off (x3) and four days off (x1).

It’s been two weeks now since the Yankees poundings. Since then Brewers batters have posted a 119 wRC+ (5th) and have scored 81 runs (4th). Brewers pitchers have posted a 3.41 ERA (11th) since then, which is a slight improvement over the 3.46 ERA they posted prior to the two NYY blowouts.

Carlos Rodriguez (the outfielder) might be the best single prospect that illustrates how much the depth of the system has improved over the last few years. Back before the pandemic and as recently as 2022 when he put up a 114 wRC+ at Wisco before a season ending injury he would get some votes in the teens and back end of BF Top 20. Now he’s posting a 134 wRC+ at Biloxi (before today’s 3-3) and probably won’t get a single vote.

Zero Club is HOPPING today... Enoli Paredes 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 3 K James Meeker 2.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Tobias Myers 2.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 2 K Kevin Herget 1.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 1 K Darrell Thompson 1.0 IP | 0 H | 2 BB | 0 K Tate Kuehner 4.0 IP | 3 H | 2 BB | 3 K Chase Costello 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K Aidan Maldonado 2.1 IP | 0 H | 2 BB | 4 K

One of the issues with getting rid of Vieira is that the only two relief arms performing at a high level in Nashville - Enoli Paredes (1.02 ERA | 1.58 FIP) and Rob Zastryzny (1.65 ERA | 1.66 FIP) - are both out of options too.

Brewers First 25 Games 3.46 ERA | 86 ERA- (two games giving up 15 runs to Yankees) Last 15 Games Before Today 3.50 ERA | 87 ERA-

AI-Generated 26th Man. Was a new feature in the last CBA.

Been a lot more hot than cold, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OPS for all MLB before today's ten spot.

Today is the 6th game of the season the Brewers have scored double digit runs. They had ten such games all last year.

Yeah, here is the LHH vs LHP leaderboard for 2021 to present, minimum 200 PA. That's like maybe a dozen impactful bats tops.

Today is only their 7th game against a LH starter. Turang started in three of the previous six and came into the game as a pinch hitter in two more. He has gotten one entire game off the whole season. He isn't being strictly platooned, just strategically rested.

Yeah, that trade was so lopsided I thought Stearns might be working for the Tigers instead of the Mets.

I get that regression is incoming for Rea and Wilson, I just believe it will be less severe than many are anticipating given the Brewers history with those kind of arms. 2018 rotation ended up at 97 ERA- | 110 FIP-, this year’s version isn’t too far off that pace at 102 ERA- | 113 FIP-. After 41 games the 2018 rotation was at 105 ERA- | 117 FIP-.

The odds of Turang bettering Monasterios’s 1.000 OPS over those two PAs is extremely low. Even if Brice stays in and homers both times for a 5.000 OPS, the Brewers still lose 8-7.

Frelick (79 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR | .267 xwOBA) is not putting up better numbers than Jackson (64 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR | .265 xwOBA). Considering Frelick is four years older and already got a couple hundred MLB PAs last year, his lack of production is more concerning to me in the immediate term. Either way, no one is going anywhere until Mitchell is ready so until then just ride it out and see where everybody’s at once it’s time to make that call.

You said, “…Hoskins will not be opting out of the 22 million the Brewers will owe him in ‘25.” I was just pointing out that Hoskins would only be opting out of $18M since he gets the $4M either way. I wasn’t arguing semantics, just clearing up the details on the contract.

No doubt the Brewers starters aren’t as good as last year, but “grim” seems like a little bit of a dire adjective choice. Brewers rotation is currently 15th with an ERA- of 102 and 15th with 2.9 rWAR. Those overall numbers are also dragged down somewhat by the eleven starts from Ashby (242 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR), Hall (190 ERA- | -0.3 rWAR), Miley (158 ERA- | -0.1 rWAR) and Myers (131 ERA- | 0.1 rWAR). For the current five: Peralta (89 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR), Rea (72 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) and Wilson (46 ERA- | 1.1 rWAR) have all been giving good starts while Gasser had an encouraging debut. Ross (117 ERA- | -0.1 rWAR) is the only real grim starter at the moment. Back to Rea specifically, he is looking more and more like one of the many FIP beaters the Brewers have been able to run out to the mound since Stearns & company arrived back in 2016… Chase Anderson 590 IP | 90 ERA- | 111 FIP- Zach Davies 580 IP | 91 ERA- | 99 FIP- Junior Guerra 416 IP | 89 ERA- | 107 FIP- Brent Suter 394 IP | 84 ERA- | 95 FIP- Eric Lauer 335 IP | 100 ERA- | 115 FIP- Jhoulys Chacin 281 IP | 100 ERA- | 108 FIP- Wade Miley 208 IP | 71 ERA- | 101 FIP- Colin Rea 175 IP | 102 ERA- | 112 FIP- Hoby Milner 170 IP | 73 ERA- | 85 FIP- Carlos Torres 155 IP | 79 ERA- | 100 FIP- Gio Gonzalez 112 IP | 73 ERA- | 90 FIP- Bryce Wilson 110 IP | 61 ERA- | 102 FIP- Joel Payamps 83 IP | 70 ERA- | 85 FIP- Alex Claudio 81 IP | 92 ERA- | 106 FIP- Jordan Lyles 75 IP | 61 ERA- | 91 FIP- No doubt Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader and Williams were hugely impactful to the Brewers recent run of success, but the organization’s ability to help guys without dominant stuff to still prevent runs at lower than average rates (and at much lower rates than their peripherals would imply) has been even more hugely impactful and a big reason why I didn’t expect the Brewers rotation to dip much below average even without Burnes and Woodruff.

I never said Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting AB against lefties, I try to stay away from bi-modal thinking and hyperbole. You said the move was made “just for kicks” so I explained what I believed to be the reasoning behind it and pointed out that subbing in Monasterio (team best +.126 WPA) helped facilitate the improbable comeback (2.8% Win Probability when he entered) in the first place.

The Brewers owe him the $4M no matter what so it’s either 1/16 or 2/34, an $18M decision for Hoskins.

Hoskins gets the $4M buyout either way - whether he opts out after this year or the mutual option isn’t exercised after next year - so “only” an $18M decision.

Yes, they almost won the game. A contributing factor to them almost winning the game was Monasterio walking in both his PAs. His +.126 WPA was literally the highest on the team last night. The move wasn’t made “just for kicks”, it was made because Murph thought Monasterio pinch hitting for Turang in that spot gave them their best chance to come back in the game…and he was right. If Turang can’t handle being pinch hit for late in a blowout, well that sounds like he just needs to put on the Big Boy Pants ™

Lots of factors play into it. The composition of the player pool changes somewhat steadily throughout the season and then pretty drastically from year to year as well. Certain leagues are historically more hitter or pitcher friendly based on geography, stadium sizes, etc. Even the “juiciness” of the baseball itself isn’t constant and contributes to the offensive environment of each league. Early season weather also tends to suppress offense and then things pick up as the temperature rises. Here are the average runs per game and OPS for each of the Brewers full season affiliate leagues over the last few years from BRef for some degree of context… Carolina League 2021: 5.21 R/G | .721 OPS 2022: 5.01 R/G | .704 OPS 2023: 4.68 R/G | .687 OPS 2024: 4.59 R/G | .656 OPS (steady decline) Midwest League 2021: 4.93 R/G | .721 OPS 2022: 4.63 R/G | .710 OPS 2023: 4.60 R/G | .702 OPS 2024: 4.62 R/G | .702 OPS (most consistent) Southern League 2021: 4.47 R/G | .714 OPS 2022: 5.01 R/G | .752 OPS 2023: 5.09 R/G | .740 OPS 2024: 3.82 R/G | .650 OPS (crazy drop this year) International League 2021: 4.80 R/G | .743 OPS 2022: 4.98 R/G | .750 OPS 2023: 5.50 R/G | .794 OPS 2024: 5.18 R/G | .763 OPS (big jump with ABS in effect)

The Brewers were down 5-0 with a 2.8% Win Probability when Monasterio pinch hit for Turang against a lefty. Andruw walked in both his plate appearances.

And Anfernny Reyes strikes out the side to nail down the win. That makes it eight of eleven outs secured via K on the young season for Anfernny.