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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Phillies, and Reds joined the Brewers among playoff teams that had three relievers at 65 or more games. The Padres had five guys with at least 65 games who helped their bullpen put up +10.68 WPA, 10.5 rWAR and 7.6 fWAR which were all tops in MLB. The Yankees had two over 65 plus two more at 64/59, the Tigers had two over 65 plus a third at 64, the Red Sox had two over 65 games plus two more at 62/61, the the Guardians had two over 65 plus two more at 63/57, Cubs had two over 65 games and a third at 57. That’s all twelve playoff teams this year with at least two guys making 65 or more appearances. I would guess most seasons follow a similar pattern.
  2. sveumrules
    I don’t think the order of operations matters at all, if Woody hits FA the Brewers can make a QO. Big questions with the QO would be (1) are the Brewers wiling to pay Woody $22M for one year if he accepts and (2) if he declines will Woody be able to get at least $50M in free agency coming off injury with the QO attached heading into his age 33 season? If he gets at least $50M the Brewers get a pick before Comp Round A, if he comes in under that number the pick would be after Comp Round B.
  3. sveumrules
    Only eight pitchers have ever hit a $35M AAV or higher…Scherzer, Verlander, Wheeler, deGrom, Snell, Cole, Strasburg and Burnes. I think Freddy’s top end is more in that Carlos Rodon 6/162 ($27M AAV) or Tyler Glasnow 5/136.5 ($27.3M AAV) neighborhood.
  4. sveumrules
    Woody & the Brewers decline the mutual option, then Woody accepts a qualifying offer or agrees to a one year deal with some kind of option tacked on the end.
  5. sveumrules
    Last night was the first time I feel like the script finally flipped on UM. Up until then it followed the classic sine wave plot line almost perfectly…ugly first four games and slow start in general to sow the seeds of doubt, insane stretch in the middle with not one but two double digit win streaks (& free burgers), then the coast into the finish line to get some of those doubts back but still did just enough to set the franchise win record on the last day of the season. Win two, then lose two, before knocking out the Cubs at home. Even losing the first two against LAD follows UM, sets them up perfectly for the out of nowhere improbable comeback…but dropping G3 moves it to an almost impossible comeback at this point. The last bit of Uecker Magic appears to have been exhausted on that nutso Frelick play.
  6. sveumrules
    Brewers in six, for the culture.
  7. sveumrules
    BRef says there were 4,172 PA and 2,935 RBI with the bases loaded this year. That shakes out to an average of 0.70 RBI per PA, so your assumption is over double the league average in 2025.
  8. sveumrules
    Peak Youkilis was at 144 BB+ | 111 AVG+ | 145 ISO+ for a 140 wRC+ over 2,786 PA from 2007 to 2011. Like you mention that average is way above what Adams is likely to ever achieve so that knocks a ton of value off right away. I also don't think Adams will get quite up to a 145 ISO+ like Youk did, that would be a Top 20 mark over the last three years (min. 1000 PA) just below guys like Corbin Carroll and Rafael Devers. I'm thinking Adams comes in closer to 140's for BB+, 90's for AVG+, and 120's for ISO+.
  9. sveumrules
    My starting point for comping Adams would be to see who walks a ton, but isn't a superstar like Judge, Soto, Ohtani and go from there. Out of 229 hitters with at least 1,000 PA from 2023-25 Happ comes in with a 155 BB+ ranking 10th on the leaderboard, so that is definitely a good start. Going off that same leaderboard, here are some other guys who will take their walks but aren't necessarily elite hitters that might provide a range of potential outcomes for Luke as a hitter... Max Muncy (127 wRC+) 179 BB+ | 91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ LaMonte Wade Jr (106 wRC+) 166 BB+ | 96 AVG+ | 81 ISO+ Trent Grisham (107 wRC+) 157 BB+ | 87 AVG+ | 119 ISO+ Ian Happ (118 wRC+) 155 BB+ | 99 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Joc Pederson (117 wRC+) 146 BB+ | 95 AVG+ | 120 ISO+ Mitch Garver (105 wRC+) 145 BB+ | 88 AVG+ | 112 ISO+ JJ Bleday (105 wRC+) 137 BB+ | 92 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Matt Chapman (116 wRC+) 133 BB+ | 97 AVG+ | 126 ISO+ Willy Adames (108 wRC+) 131 BB+ | 93 AVG+ | 125 ISO+
  10. sveumrules
    Collins posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR over his last 120 PA to close the season, that’s a couple cliffs down from the 141 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR he posted over his first 321 PA of the year.
  11. sveumrules
    Shortstop was the worst position on the roster, so it theoretically should be the easiest to upgrade, but I'm not sure I'm seeing many guys among these thirty three with at least 200 PA playing SS this past year who are going to be realistically available for the Brewers. Someone like Zach Neto (116 wRC+ | 3.2 WAR) is probably taking up the most space in the "good player / bad team" overlap, but the Angels are delusional. They'd probably ask for Chourio and Misio. If the Rangers are truly tearing it down (& the Brewers aren't part of his limited no trade protection) I'd be interested in Corey Seager, but not sure paying $186M plus prospect capital for the age 32 to 37 seasons of a SS (maybe future 3B) is in the Brewers MO.
  12. sveumrules
    Out of one hundred eleven players with at least 200 PA in the outfield this year Collins came in at 123 wRC+ (24th) and and 2.5 WAR (32nd). Obviously he has fallen out of the lineup after fading down the stretch (120 PA of 73 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR to close the season), and there is a very real chance this was his career year as an older prospect who kind of came out of nowhere. That said, looking at the guys above him in wRC+ or WAR on that leaderboard and I'm not seeing too many trade targets. Would perennial rebuilders MIA ship out Kyle Stowers (154 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Jakob Marsee (133 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR) after going 54 W - 42 L (third best record in the NL) from June 13th thru the end of the season? How about TEX dealing Wyatt Langford (118 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR) if they want to tear it down so soon after flying that flag forever? Maybe BOS would move one of Jarren Duran (111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Wilyer Abreu (119 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR) with Roman Anthony (133 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR) and Cedanne Rafaela (109 wRC+ | 4.6 WAR) also in the fold? Are any of those guys realistically acquirable without giving up Jesus Made? Say a package of Luis Pena or Cooper Pratt / plus Logan Henderson / then Marco Dinges / and maybe even more?
  13. sveumrules
    Durbin (101 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR) was one of only eleven players to put up at least 2.0 WAR while playing third base this year. Of the nine guys above him on the leaderboard I would guess that Jose Ramirez (132 wRC+ | 5.5 WAR), Maikel Garcia (117 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR), Junior Caminero (126 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR), Manny Machado (126 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR), Matt Chapman (118 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR), Max Muncy (140 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR), and Isaac Paredes (135 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) aren't going anywhere. Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) and Alex Bregman (125 wRC+ | 3.5 WAR) are the free agent options.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, like PCA had a great age 20 season hitting 312/376/520 (146 wRC+) against pitchers a year or two older than him on average between A/A+. When Chourio was 20 he was hitting 275/327/464 (118 wRC+) against MLB pitchers who were eight years older than him on average. One of those is considerably more impressive than the other. In the 79 seasons since MLB integrated there have been just 47 players to reach at least 1,000 PA thru their age 21 season like Jackson has. Move that age limit up to 23 for PCA and the player pool blows up to 333 guys.
  15. sveumrules
    Barring a miraculous return and some postseason heroics, I think the lat injury likely torpedoed Woodruff's chances at a multi year deal. I'd guess the mutual option gets declined and Woody comes back on a one year deal, likely with some kind of option or another tacked on at the end again.
  16. sveumrules
    Was surprised by the pitch selection to Chourio after he was down 0-2. Thought for sure that Palencia would at least waste a couple sliders trying to get Jackson chasing before coming back anywhere near the strike zone.
  17. sveumrules
    Their minor league numbers are increasingly irrelevant when they both have over 1,000 PA against MLB pitching (& one guy was facing much more age appropriate competition on his way up). PCA has hit 240/285/437 (98 wRC+) with a 4.9 BB% and 24.2 K% in MLB. Chourio has hit 272/317/483 (115 wRC+) with a 5.9 BB% and 20.8 K%. Age, scouting reports, batted ball profiles and MLB performance all lead me to believe Jackson has a higher offensive upside than PCA.
  18. sveumrules
    PCA has more WAR than Chourio so far because he is a better defender yes, Chourio will likely accrue more WAR going forward because he is two years younger, is already a better hitter, and possesses more offensive upside. One of the main riffs on WAR is that "defense and offense count the same" which is true, they each get one column in the formula. At the same time, this last year on BRef the range in qualified player fielding values went from +22 down to -23, but batting values ranged from +82 down to -24 so there is a lot more room for Chourio to make headway than there is for PCA, whose fielding is pretty much already maxed out.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, 179 singles for Jackson versus only 133 for Crow-Armstrong is a huge drag on PCA's offense. Chourio's 110 AVG+ puts him inside the Top 50 hitters since 2023 (min. 1000 PA) versus a 97 AVG+ for PCA that places him around 175th on that same list. Jackson also has a much more well balanced batted ball profile... 96 LD+ | 106 GB+ | 95 FB+ | 88 Pull+ | 113 Center+ | 101 Oppo+ ...compared to PCA who is trying to lift and pull everything... 97 LD+ | 79 GB+ | 129 FB+ | 120 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 88 Oppo+
  20. sveumrules
    The Brewers went 4 W - 1 L in the five games they used an opener for Priester this year.
  21. sveumrules
    Getting to be that time of year that we'll start seeing some new prospect reports, lists, rankings, et cetera being released. Looks like FanGraphs updated their Top 100 heading into the offseason... #2 Jesus Made (65 FV) #29 Luis Pena (50 FV) #56 Cooper Pratt (50 FV) #89 Jeferson Quero (50 FV) #90 Logan Henderson (50 FV)
  22. sveumrules
    Contreras has a $12M option for 2026, then his third and final year of Arby's in 2027 after which he will be heading into free agency as a 30 year old. Assuming the option is picked up, then say $18M for his final year of Arby's, then five free agent years at $24M each (current record AAV for a catcher is $23.1M) throw in a $2M signing bonus and you'd be at 6/140 in new money. That would tie him with Will Smith for the third highest total value for a catcher contract behind Posey ($167M) and Mauer ($184M), and give him a new record AAV for a catcher. Mark A can definitely afford it, just a matter of how much sense it makes for Milwaukee to invest so much of their limited payroll space in a catcher and how interested Contreras is in extending before FA.
  23. sveumrules
    Yes, Manny Rodriguez 29 postseason HR are most all time, two ahead of Jose Altuve with 27. That was #12 for Machado.
  24. sveumrules
    Bichette is going to be trying to get more money than Adames did this past offseason. If the Brewers were prepared to pay free agent prices for a SS I think they would have just stuck with the guy they were already familiar with. Adames 2021-25 3,184 PA | 110 wRC+ | 19.8 WAR 121 BB+ | 118 K+ | 96 AVG+ | 129 ISO+ 0 DRS | +21 FRV Bichette 2021-25 2,952 PA | 121 wRC+ | 17.7 WAR 69 BB+ | 84 K+ | 120 AVG+ | 104 ISO+ -24 DRS | -23 FRV Also questionable how much of a shortstop Bichette will truly be moving forward with those defensive metrics.
  25. sveumrules
    Based on how everybody hit in each of the various line up spots this year best batting order would be… #1 Frelick (265 PA of 136 wRC+) #2 Contreras (172 PA of 127 wRC+) #3 Yelich (336 PA of 120 wRC+) #4 Chourio (42 PA of 219 wRC+) #5 Vaughn (131 PA of 157 wRC+) #6 Collins or Bauers (133 PA of 124 wRC+) (38 PA of 126 wRC+) #7 Turang (102 PA of 171 wRC+) #8 Durbin (190 PA of 122 wRC+) #9 Ortiz or Mona (339 PA of 88 wRC+) (62 PA of 177 wRC+) Couple random notes about league average wRC+ and batting order positions… - lineup construction has shifted to the point that over the last three seasons lead off hitters (111, 109 & 110 league average wRC+) have slightly better results than clean up hitters (108, 106 & 108 league average wRC+). - league average #9 hitter had a 79 wRC+ this year, so Joey was actually better than average when batting ninth. His seasonal wRC+ was dragged down by abysmal results in other lineup spots…27 wRC+ batting 8th, -49 wRC+ batting 7th, 68 wRC+ batting 6th.
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