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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    This plan is essentially the same one the Brewers have been running since 2017, a seven season stretch during which they’ve won the 6th most games in MLB. Given the front office’s track record of knowing what they’re doing more often than not, combined with the highly ranked farm system they’ve assembled without the benefit of high draft picks, I feel pretty good about their odds of avoiding long term mediocrity or worse. The first wave way back in the day was all hitters and Yo, the second wave was all pitchers and Orlando. This next wave looks to have the best mix of both. The writing has been on the wall for the the end of this era since trade deadline 2022, bring on the new. I’m excited to see how exactly the wave crests or crashes.
  2. sveumrules
    ChatGPT needs help, Brewers went 7-12 in the postseason during the Burnes/Woody plus Freddy years. Sure, they’re only 1-9 over their last ten postseason games going back to Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS, but whatcha gonna do, even the mighty Dodgers are only 2-8 in their last ten postseason games. Same record as the small market ideal Rays over their last ten. For all their money the Yankees are 3-7, with all their devil magic the Cardinals are 1-9, (and neither even made it at all last year), heck, the best in baseball Braves are 2-6 since winning the 2021 WS.
  3. sveumrules
    ZiPS is currently showing Ortiz (1.8 WAR), Hall (1.1 WAR) and Burnes (4.4 WAR) on their FG player pages. Isn’t that more like 1.5 wins?
  4. sveumrules
    He was playing his age 24 season in 2023. He will be playing his age 25 season in 2024. Like purt near every player drafted before 2020, his development was delayed a full year by a global pandemic.
  5. sveumrules
    The Brewers are never well thought of. But they’ve made a regular habit of beating those prognostications over the last seven, eight years.
  6. sveumrules
    Because the Brewers FO thinks the sum total of all moves made so far (and maybe even some yet to be made) will allow them to remain competitive in 2024 while also increasing their chances of competing in 2025 and beyond.
  7. sveumrules
    Trade for Cease at $8M.
  8. sveumrules
    Getting Wilson, Rea and Perkins for free was another four wins for nothing.
  9. sveumrules
    Burnes last three years… 35.6 to 30.5 to 25.5 on K%. 5.2 to 6.4 to 8.4 on BB%. 0.38 to 1.02 to 1.02 on HR9. 1.63 to 3.14 to 3.81 on FIP. 2.43 to 2.94 to 3.39 on ERA. 6.3 to 5.3 to 4.8 on rWAR. 7.5 to 4.6 to 3:4 on fWAR. Corbin has regressed pretty hard two years in a row across the board with only one year of control remaining. That’s why Mayo has a higher surplus value on BTV and was always a pipedream.
  10. sveumrules
    Mitchell has pretty divergent splits so far in his limited professional career... MiLB (592 PA) 13.2 BB% | 25.5 K% | 60.7 GB% MLB (141 PA) 9.2 BB% | 38.3 K% | 38.9 GB% In the minors he has had a reasonable plate discipline profile and hit everything on the ground, in the majors his Ks have exploded and he's hit everything in the air. The main problem though (besides the ridiculously unsustainable .441 BABIP in the majors) is only 733 total PA over three full seasons.
  11. sveumrules
    To lock Contreras up now have to imagine you gotta top Murphy at 6/73 minimum. I don't think William early extending was ever a realistic option though because beating his brother at 5/87.5 is probably the ultimate goal, that’s bragging rights for life.
  12. sveumrules
    Not saying BTV is infallible by any means, but they’ve got this package like $11M short on Milwaukee’s end. By their calcs subbing Payamps for Wilson adds just shy of $10M in value, or a Frelick for Woo one for one would be essentially a wash. Seattle has JRod locking down CF, so they probably aren’t the ideal trade partner for our surplus there. Scanning CF depth charts I think the best fits are COL, SDP, CLE, KCR or TBR.
  13. sveumrules
    It’s not crazy, but it’s probably not consensus either. Depending how one weights ceiling/floor & likelihood of reaching that ceiling, you can really put Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer in any order. Frelick has the least power of the three, but his approach and contact ability give him the highest floor and best chance to realize his ceiling. Wiemer has the most power of the three, but needs to fix his swing to get there. Michell has the best total package, but is injured all the time and has a couple big red flags in his limited MLB performance so far with a career 38.3 K% and .441 BABIP.
  14. sveumrules
    New year, new MLB misc news thread. New Orioles owners finally? Looks like Angelos family is cashing out the tune of 1.725 Billion Dollars. Sale needs to be approved at the upcoming owners meetings, and sounds like it might be more of a gradual transfer for tax purposes, but maybe now they’ll start locking up and adding to their young core.
  15. sveumrules
    I’d guess Anderson is holding out for a 40 Man Spot, but is only getting Arroyo offers right now, aka come to camp and earn it. He is pretty much the poster boy for the perils of BABIP dependency though. When he was going good from 2019-21 (among 159 players with at least 1,000 PAs) he came in at .322 AVG (1st) | 126 wRC+ (37th) | 11.5 WAR (15th) He never walked (3.6 BB% | 157th) and hit for below average power (.173 ISO | 110th) but rode an insane .394 BABIP (1st) to the very top of the batting average column and Top 15 WAR. To give some context as to how out there his BABIP was, the next best over that same stretch was Yoan Moncada all the way down at .368. The highest over the two years prior was Judge/Altuve at .362. The highest over the last two years is Freeman at .364. Speaking of last two years (among 177 players with at least 800 PAs), Anderson still doesn’t walk (4.6 BB% | 172nd), and his power completely disappeared (.068 ISO | 176th). His heavily regressed .333 BABIP is still good at 22nd, but not good enough as his 80 wRC+ (168th) and 1.5 WAR (149th) are both precipitous drops. Feels like a National or Angel to me. Rockies as a dark horse because if he can’t regain form at Coors that’s prettty much a wrap.
  16. sveumrules
    Yeah, all the plus stats adjust for ballpark and leaguewide offense. Like Moose had a raw ISO of .221 from 2015-18 with KC which shook out to a 133 ISO+ once all the adjustments were made. He followed that up with a raw ISO of .241 from 2018-19 with MIL, but that also shook out to a 133 ISO+ since Miller Park is easier to slug in than Kaufmann and offense was up in 2019 (.187 leaguewide ISO) compared to 2015-18 (.153 to .175 leaguewide ISO).
  17. sveumrules
    In the three years before the Brewers acquired Moose he went for 1742 PA | 115 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR compared to 1824 PA | 110 wRC+ | 11.7 WAR for Chapman. In addition to defense (+24 DRS | +21 OAA for Chapman vs -11 DRS | -4 OAA for Moose), Matt also had a notable edge on the bases at +7.4 BsR over the last three years compared to -14.4 BsR for Mike over the three years before we acquired him. They also get to their offense in pretty different ways... Moose walked below average (82 BB%+), struck out less than average (68 K%+), got hits above average (105 AVG+) and slugged big time (133 ISO+). Chapman has a whole different approach with a ton of walks (139 BB%+), strike outs (129 K%+), not as many hits (92 AVG+) and a good amount of power (121 ISO+). Moose was a big time fly ball hitter (121 FB%+) with more of an all fields approach at 102 Pull+ | 95 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ whereas Chapman sells out even more for flyballs (133 FB%+) to the pull side and up the middle at 105 Pull+ | 105 Cent+ | 85 Oppo+
  18. sveumrules
    For real. Of the 320 players that have racked up 6,000 plate appearances since Gantner debuted in 1976 he ranks 301st with an 87 wRC+ and 280th with 19.5 WAR. His two closest comps are Eric Young Sr. with a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 WAR or Adam Kennedy with an 88 wRC+ and 18.3 WAR over that stretch. I guess he maybe holds the distinction of being the longest tenured, most mediocre single franchise player in history?
  19. sveumrules
    Polanco/Raya is maybe half of Burnes excess value, I’d guess that’s why nothing materialized there. White Sox would probably want Quero to headline any Cease deal, which is a no go for me. If the Brewers have room to still push payroll a bit just sign a veteran bat like Turner, Belt or Urshela for additional lineup depth.
  20. sveumrules
    I think Garrett Mitchell is a good position player comp for Ashby. Both have dealt with injury issues, both have the look and toolbox to succeed at their respective positions yet have struggled to put it all together in their limited field time. The best thing Ashby has going for him is he gets grounders. Among 352 pitchers with at least 130 IP since 2021, his 133 GB%+ ranks 20th. That’s just outside top 5th percentile. His strikeout rate isn’t quite as impressive, but a 119 K%+ is still good enough to rank 73rd, just outside the top 20th percentile. Closest comp to him over that stretch in terms of ground balls and strikeouts would be Jordan Hicks (115 K%+ | 137 GB%+). Other guys in the neighborhood are Lance McCullers (117 K%+ | 130 GB%+), Hunter Brown (116 K%+ | 129 GB%+) or Emmanuel Clase (111 K%+ | 147 GB%+). Problems aside from health for Aaron have been walks (115 BB%+ | 270th) and home runs (109 HR9+ | 243rd). Given his command and health woahs, I think his best role would be as a MIRP (multi inning relief pitcher), but there is number two tree starter upside in there so I can understand trying him in the rotation.
  21. sveumrules
    Yeah, exactly. Hoskins on average will probably cost you a couple two tree runs in the field over a full season versus Rowdy at closer to like -7 to -10. Another big difference between the two is that Hoskins is slow with -7.8 BsR since 2019 (154th of 202 players with at least 1,500 PA), but Rowdy is a whole other level of stationary at -14.8 BsR (184th) over that same stretch.
  22. sveumrules
    Among 27 players with at least 2,500 innings at 1B since 2017, Hoskins comes in at -7 DRS (22nd) and -11 OAA (20th). He did all that in 4,195 innings. Rowdy comes in at -13 DRS (24th) and -19 OAA (25th), but he did all that in only 2,969 innings. If you prorate that out to Rhys playing time it would be something like -18 DRS and -27 OAA.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, Conforto went for a 99 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR, Bell came in at 104 OPS+ and 0.4 WAR. Unsurprisingly, neither opted out. That's why it's a better idea to not just give guys 4/80 for no real reason when you can get them for 2/34 and an opt out.
  24. sveumrules
    Not sure where people are getting this from. Last year was $119M on Opening Day and $126M at the end of the season. Roster Resource currently has them at $122M, Cot's at $120M, Spotrac at $105M but no Hoskins on their ledger yet.
  25. sveumrules
    Minor League deal so only needs to be added to the 40 Man if he makes the team out of spring training.
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