sveumrules

I’d guess Anderson is holding out for a 40 Man Spot, but is only getting Arroyo offers right now, aka come to camp and earn it. He is pretty much the poster boy for the perils of BABIP dependency though. When he was going good from 2019-21 (among 159 players with at least 1,000 PAs) he came in at .322 AVG (1st) | 126 wRC+ (37th) | 11.5 WAR (15th) He never walked (3.6 BB% | 157th) and hit for below average power (.173 ISO | 110th) but rode an insane .394 BABIP (1st) to the very top of the batting average column and Top 15 WAR. To give some context as to how out there his BABIP was, the next best over that same stretch was Yoan Moncada all the way down at .368. The highest over the two years prior was Judge/Altuve at .362. The highest over the last two years is Freeman at .364. Speaking of last two years (among 177 players with at least 800 PAs), Anderson still doesn’t walk (4.6 BB% | 172nd), and his power completely disappeared (.068 ISO | 176th). His heavily regressed .333 BABIP is still good at 22nd, but not good enough as his 80 wRC+ (168th) and 1.5 WAR (149th) are both precipitous drops. Feels like a National or Angel to me. Rockies as a dark horse because if he can’t regain form at Coors that’s prettty much a wrap.

Yeah, all the plus stats adjust for ballpark and leaguewide offense. Like Moose had a raw ISO of .221 from 2015-18 with KC which shook out to a 133 ISO+ once all the adjustments were made. He followed that up with a raw ISO of .241 from 2018-19 with MIL, but that also shook out to a 133 ISO+ since Miller Park is easier to slug in than Kaufmann and offense was up in 2019 (.187 leaguewide ISO) compared to 2015-18 (.153 to .175 leaguewide ISO).

In the three years before the Brewers acquired Moose he went for 1742 PA | 115 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR compared to 1824 PA | 110 wRC+ | 11.7 WAR for Chapman. In addition to defense (+24 DRS | +21 OAA for Chapman vs -11 DRS | -4 OAA for Moose), Matt also had a notable edge on the bases at +7.4 BsR over the last three years compared to -14.4 BsR for Mike over the three years before we acquired him. They also get to their offense in pretty different ways... Moose walked below average (82 BB%+), struck out less than average (68 K%+), got hits above average (105 AVG+) and slugged big time (133 ISO+). Chapman has a whole different approach with a ton of walks (139 BB%+), strike outs (129 K%+), not as many hits (92 AVG+) and a good amount of power (121 ISO+). Moose was a big time fly ball hitter (121 FB%+) with more of an all fields approach at 102 Pull+ | 95 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ whereas Chapman sells out even more for flyballs (133 FB%+) to the pull side and up the middle at 105 Pull+ | 105 Cent+ | 85 Oppo+

For real. Of the 320 players that have racked up 6,000 plate appearances since Gantner debuted in 1976 he ranks 301st with an 87 wRC+ and 280th with 19.5 WAR. His two closest comps are Eric Young Sr. with a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 WAR or Adam Kennedy with an 88 wRC+ and 18.3 WAR over that stretch. I guess he maybe holds the distinction of being the longest tenured, most mediocre single franchise player in history?

Polanco/Raya is maybe half of Burnes excess value, I’d guess that’s why nothing materialized there. White Sox would probably want Quero to headline any Cease deal, which is a no go for me. If the Brewers have room to still push payroll a bit just sign a veteran bat like Turner, Belt or Urshela for additional lineup depth.

I think Garrett Mitchell is a good position player comp for Ashby. Both have dealt with injury issues, both have the look and toolbox to succeed at their respective positions yet have struggled to put it all together in their limited field time. The best thing Ashby has going for him is he gets grounders. Among 352 pitchers with at least 130 IP since 2021, his 133 GB%+ ranks 20th. That’s just outside top 5th percentile. His strikeout rate isn’t quite as impressive, but a 119 K%+ is still good enough to rank 73rd, just outside the top 20th percentile. Closest comp to him over that stretch in terms of ground balls and strikeouts would be Jordan Hicks (115 K%+ | 137 GB%+). Other guys in the neighborhood are Lance McCullers (117 K%+ | 130 GB%+), Hunter Brown (116 K%+ | 129 GB%+) or Emmanuel Clase (111 K%+ | 147 GB%+). Problems aside from health for Aaron have been walks (115 BB%+ | 270th) and home runs (109 HR9+ | 243rd). Given his command and health woahs, I think his best role would be as a MIRP (multi inning relief pitcher), but there is number two tree starter upside in there so I can understand trying him in the rotation.

Yeah, exactly. Hoskins on average will probably cost you a couple two tree runs in the field over a full season versus Rowdy at closer to like -7 to -10. Another big difference between the two is that Hoskins is slow with -7.8 BsR since 2019 (154th of 202 players with at least 1,500 PA), but Rowdy is a whole other level of stationary at -14.8 BsR (184th) over that same stretch.

Among 27 players with at least 2,500 innings at 1B since 2017, Hoskins comes in at -7 DRS (22nd) and -11 OAA (20th). He did all that in 4,195 innings. Rowdy comes in at -13 DRS (24th) and -19 OAA (25th), but he did all that in only 2,969 innings. If you prorate that out to Rhys playing time it would be something like -18 DRS and -27 OAA.

Yeah, Conforto went for a 99 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR, Bell came in at 104 OPS+ and 0.4 WAR. Unsurprisingly, neither opted out. That's why it's a better idea to not just give guys 4/80 for no real reason when you can get them for 2/34 and an opt out.

Not sure where people are getting this from. Last year was $119M on Opening Day and $126M at the end of the season. Roster Resource currently has them at $122M, Cot's at $120M, Spotrac at $105M but no Hoskins on their ledger yet.

Minor League deal so only needs to be added to the 40 Man if he makes the team out of spring training.

Roster Resource has them at $122M projected for OD 2024 compared to $119M for OD 2023 and $126M to end last season, so they’re right in that range already. I’d guess there’s room for one more FA in the five to nine million range if they could pull one of Urshela, Turner or Belt as a veteran hedge for the young position players.

Houser and Taylor combine for about $7M in 2024 salary. Every team has a budget, so who would you have dealt instead to save that same $7M?

Yeah, biggest difference between Wagner and Nathan is that Wagner has the second highest league adjusted K rate in MLB history (min. 900 IP). The incomparable Dazzy Vance put up a redonkulous 225 K%+ over a Century ago, but after him it's Wagner (190), Nolan Ryan (183), Satchel Paige (183), Randy Johnson (176), Sandy Koufax (173), Lefty Grove (170), Dizzy Dean (169), Bob Feller (168), Pedro Martinez (168), JR Richard (166), etc. Other advantage Billy has on Joe are that all 903 of his IP came as a dominant reliever. From 1996 to 2008, outside of an 81 ERA+ in 2000, Wagner's lowest ERA+ was 141. That is a dozen dominant relief seasons. Nathan has 761 IP of stellar but not quite as dominant as Wagner relief work, plus 162 IP as a below average starter at the beginning of his career which drags down his career totals. He was only a top tier reliever for nine seasons.

Assuming Contreras and Haase start in Milwaukee, Clarke will be behind Quero, Austin Nola and Brian Navarreto for catching reps in Nashville to open the year. Of course, the Brewers could always coach up Clarke's defense like they have with other guys (though those other guys were already established MLB catchers who had been primary catcher all through the minor leagues too), but reading between the lines I don't believe they would have signed Nola or re-signed Navarreto if they intended to give Clarke significant time behind the dish at Nashville.

Jake Bauers has moved down the depth chart.

Salary saved re-invested and then some.

I’d have no problem with that either, I just don’t think Boras and Hoskins want to commit to DH only or primary DH sometimes 1B on the defensive spectrum so soon because it eats into future earning potential. Coming off surgery, and with the opt out, they are going to want to get 120-130 games at 1B to show he’s healthy and deserving of a three four year deal. That’s why I think guys like Turner or Belt, who are already in the primary DH sometimes 1B phase of their career are more likely than Santana if the Brewers decide to add another bat.

I’d guess the deal is contingent on Rhys being the primary 1B, so probably no Santana. Assuming $17M per year that brings payroll to around $122M versus $126M to end last year using the numbers on roster resource. Probably enough room to add a “legit” DH like Turner or Belt (Joc or JDM likely too rich) if they want to push things a little more in the last year with Burnes/Adames.

Wes Clarke has zero PAs above AA. Wilken has 25 PAs at AA. Non-roster invitation to spring training or not, neither of these guys is in a position to impact the MLB club on Opening Day. At some point later in the season? Sure, maybe, but that should be viewed as more of a bonus outcome than an expected one. I certainly hope he makes it and is the starting 3B, but even Tyler Black isn’t a lock for the OD roster. There’s plenty of room in the org for Hoskins, Black, Clarke and Wilken.

I’m not a member myself, so can’t see the whole thing, but he has a LinkedIn page. Apparently he creates effective, impactful communication projects and events.

Yeah, Wes Clarke is a catcher like former Clancy #1 prospect Cooper Hummel is a catcher or former Clancy #1 prospect Ernesto Martinez is a CF. If Clarke (34 games at catcher) was viewed as a legit backstop he would have been closer to Quero (74 games at catcher) in games behind the dish at Biloxi. Instead he split back up duties with Nick Kahle (26 games at catcher). To say nothing of the huge discrepancy in CS% and scouting reports.

Not sure I'd have any other reliever as Hall worthy besides Wagner at this point. Obviously Mariano is a class of his own at 1233 IP | 46 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 53.6 rWAR | 38.6 fWAR | +55.76 WPA for his career. After that I'd have Wagner grouped in a tier with Hoffman and Smith... Lee Smith 1252 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 157 K%+ | 27.7 rWAR | 25.8 rWAR | +24.36 WPA Trevor Hoffman 1089 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 150 K%+ | 28.6 rWAR | 25.9 fWAR | +32.78 WPA Billy Wagner 903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 30.1 rWAR | 24.0 fWAR | +28.40 WPA On a per inning basis Wagner is closer to Mariano than these guys. That he has the highest rWAR and is ballpark on fWAR and WPA despite a 186 and a 255 IP deficit to Trevor and Lee is pretty remarkable really. I'd have Francisco in the HoVG tier with guys like Nathan, Papelbon, Kenley, Kimbrel, Aroldis, Quiz and Henke... Francisco Rodriguez 976 IP | 69 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 159 K%+ | 24.4 rWAR | 16.3 fWAR | +23.80 WPA Dan Quisenberry 1003 IP | 69 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 67 K%+ | 25.1 rWAR | 14.5 fWAR | +20.37 WPA Tom Henke 789 IP | 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 183 K%+ | 24.2 rWAR | 20.6 fWAR | +20.89 WPA Joe Nathan 761 IP | 59 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 165 K%+ | 25.9 rWAR | 19.5 fWAR | +30.73 WPA Jonathan Papelbon 709 IP | 58 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 151 K%+ | 22.1 rWAR | 19.2 fWAR | +28.11 WPA Kenley Jansen 813 IP | 64 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 169 K%+ | 22.3 rWAR | 23.4 fWAR | +24.82 WPA Craig Kimbrel 757 IP | 58 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 187 K%+ | 23.5 rWAR | 21.3 fWAR | +24.70 WPA Aroldis Chapman 698 IP | 62 ERA- | 57 FIP- | 190 K%+ | 20.5 rWAR | 21.8 fWAR | +20.67 WPA Here K-Rod has the massive edge in IP on the non-Quiz field, but isn't able to leverage it into any meaningful advantage in WAR or WPA because he just wasn't as good on a per inning basis. His FIP- being so much worse than everybody else except a 1980's sidewinding submariner who didn't strike anyone out is a pretty good representation of the frequent "heart attack" nature of Francisco's saves. Feel like this also does a nice job showing just how hard it is for a reliever to stick around and dominate long enough to put up HoVG, much less HoF numbers. Even if Hader were to double his career totals from age 23-29 over the next seven seasons from age 30-36 he'd come in at 776 IP | 60 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 186 K%+ | 25.6 rWAR | 22.6 fWAR | +30.80 WPA.

I like Dunn as a late bloomer upside play with a combo of patience, pop and wheels. Breakout at AA and in the AFL was nice, now he’ll have to keep it going in AAA. Scouting reports on his defense are less than stellar though. Sounds like his ceiling is maybe average at 2B. Will be interesting to see if the Brewers try him more at 3B and LF in Nashville than the Phils did last year…2B (89 GS) DH (23 GS) 3B/LF (2 GS each). He did play 3B for five of his eighteen games afield in the AFL, so a little more frequency there.

Bobby and Marjon isn’t enough salary going out to match. Would need to be Bobby, Marjon, Beasley and AJax to get there.