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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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That’s Sveumer’s senior picture stolen from the internet. My earliest Brewers specific memory is pulling an Earnie Riles from my first ever pack of 1986 Topps baseball cards.
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I’m not old enough to remember those teams first hand, but it’s pretty tight by raw winning percentage. 1978-83: 518-400 (.564 W%) 2018-23: 487-384 (.559 W%) 1978-83 played the same 12 teams for all 918 of those games with a much tighter payroll spread league wide. Didn’t the whole collusion scandal go on during this time? 2018-23 played much more varied competition while facing a greater payroll disparity. They definitely got to those very similar winning percentages in drastically different ways. 1978-83 pitchers posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 104 FIP- (21st) compared to a 91 ERA- (5th) and 95 FIP- (5th) for 2018-23. On the position player side 1978-83 came in at 114 wRC+ (1st) and -57.7 DEF (16th) compared to a 99 wRC+ (16th) and +107.5 DEF (1st) for 2018-23.
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So last played 3B at AA in 2019 with zero innings anywhere other than 2B since. Some adventurous team might be willing to try India at 3B after a five year, two level layoff at the position but I highly doubt it would be the Brewers giving up assets to roll those dice. -
No thanks on India. Among 27 second basemen with at least 1,500 innings since 2021 he is 26th in DRS (-21) and 27th in OAA (-23). That puts him in the bucket where he pretty much has to hit for a 120 wRC+ to have any value. He’s at 960 PA of 98 wRC+ shaking out to 1.7 WAR since his ROY campaign.
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He had 34.2% and 26.9% K rates over just under 60 IP each at A+/AA with TBR in 2021. For whatever reason (injury, wasn’t ready for AAA yet) that bottomed out to 14.1% over 60 IP at AAA with CLE in 2022. This year he bounced back to a 28.7% K rate over 137 IP at AA.
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That was my first thought, but we only got four guys for Hader, not six…so a 1/3 dozed nobodies?
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Nice comeback after an ugly first quarter, but just ran out of steam there at the end. Gotta think they hold on if Dame was closing it out instead of gassed Giannis turning it over twice in a row down the stretch.
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Got a good chuckle out of this in Ben Clemens chat at FanGraphs today… Sanford: Where would you have ranked Craig Counsell’s managerial services in the top 50? Ben Clemens: Haha hmmmmmmm Ben Clemens: I think I’d rather add Counsell to my team than Wacha, so at least in the top 25
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Redd Vencher’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint
sveumrules replied to Redd Vencher's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Yeah, last two years Baez is at 75 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR over 1137 PAs. Adames is at 101 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR over 1255 PAs last two years. Willy in Tampa put up a 103 wRC+ and 5.7 WAR over 1254 PAs. Kind of uncanny how close those PAs and wRC+ are with improved defense accounting for the WAR difference. Outside of the 135 wRC+ he posted over 413 PA when we first acquired him he has been a little above average in aggregate over his other 2,500 career PAs. -
Royals had a couple middling seasons after their WS runs, but have won 338 games since 2018, fewest in MLB. Tigers at 355 are second worst. Until they turn out more than Bobby Witt, I'd have them down there with the Rockies and A's among the bottom three or four run franchises in the game currently. Brewers player development is on the entire other end of the spectrum.
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What is “a 1/2 dozed nobodies” even supposed to mean?
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Definitely a fun game last night. Pistons predictably went on a run after Giannis was tossed, then Dame came in down by eight points with like nine minutes left and just did his thing. Brook also came up huge at the end with a nice deep three - blocked shot combo for the dagger and knife twist. B2B with Indy tonight who are currently 2nd in pace and 1st in scoring on the young season with Tyrese Haliburton leading the way (& doing Oshkosh proud) at 23 PPG | 12 APG | 4 RPG on .627 TS% so far.
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Well put, I've pretty much emotionally dis-attached myself from sports entirely at this point. More out of logical necessity than anything else. Outside of the stretch run and playoff games, I get more emotionally charged watching the various iterations of MTV's The Challenge every week than I do the Packers, Bucks or Brewers. Following the minor leagues might be the biggest consistent thrill left for me in sports. Some of my favorite baseball moments this summer were watching Chourio ABs on GameDay on my phone, then sliding over to the game thread to post CHOO-CHOO-CHOURIO...OH-OH.
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I don’t think they necessarily need to do or not do anything specific. If they get good offers for Burnes, Adames, maybe even Williams, sure, deal them and try to do a quick reload or whatever one wants to call it. If teams are only offering up poo poo platters, keep them, add some pieces this winter, and try to compete again in 2024. Who knows, maybe with how things shook out with Counsell, Mark A gets aggressive this winter and we see another Yelich/Cain 2018 kind of offseason.
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Well said, that is the essentially the crux of the whole thing. Of the names mentioned by Rosenthal, my preference would be one of McCullough, Espada, or Snitker. Someone that hasn’t managed before from outside the organization. A fresh voice/approach as we transition to whatever the future holds. Of the other three I’d probably order it Weeks, Murphy, Mattingly. But ultimately I know enough to know I don’t really know anything about any of these guys so I’ll hope Arnold makes the right call, even if it doesn’t align with my personal feelings.
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How can you not be pedantic about baseball?
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Depends on where one draws the line of ace-hood. There are 112 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last two seasons. Burnes ranks... 395 IP (7th) | 75 ERA- (13th) | 82 FIP- (24th) | 79 xFIP- (13th) | 125 K%+ (14th) | 87 BB9+ (63rd) | 88 HR9+ (40th) | 10.1 rWAR (5th) | 8.0 fWAR (12th) Compare that to 2021-22, where there were 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP and Burnes ranked... 369 IP (6th) | 66 ERA- (8th) | 60 FIP- (2nd) | 64 xFIP- (1st) | 143 K%+ (3rd) | 69 BB%+ (23rd) | 65 HR9+ (11th) | 11.6 rWAR (3rd) | 12.0 fWAR (1st) Looking at that I'd say he has gone from being an ace over 2021-22 to just a standard #1 starter from 2022-23.
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Depends, does he blame his agent or Mark A for that under market extension he signed?
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That is correct, yes. The Brewers players, assembled by Stearns/Arnold, paid by Attanassio, and managed by Counsell have lost eight playoff games to three World Series winners and one World Series loser since video game Yelich fouled a ball off his kneecap.
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Some things that could make people think Rickie is a less than ideal managerial candidate... The kind of player he was. The worst fielding second baseman of the advanced metrics era. Struck out a lot (133 career K%+) 111th out of 120 batters with at least 5,000 PA from 2003-17. Normally people think of managers as guys who didn't have the athletic gifts, but did all the little things right. Rickie is kind of the opposite of that archetype. Their perception of his personality. Prince Fielder was always considered the "leader" of those Brewers teams. Rickie was more soft spoken and I believe has a bit of a stutter which some could perceive as not lending itself well to being a leader of men.
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You keep referencing this 1-7 playoff record, Counsell has a 7-12 playoff record.
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Would have some Obi-Wan vs Anakin vibes going on for sure.
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Who’s resting laurels on anything? I was just pointing out that it would be impossible to reach the NLCS with the 1-7 playoff record another poster attributed to him. Counsell didn’t get fired, he managed through the end of his deal then signed a new record setting contract. To me, that indicates that the Cubs believe his 573-460 regular season record over 1,033 games since 2017 is more indicative of his managerial ability than his 1-8 playoff record since 2019.
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The last four full seasons their OD payroll ranks have been 20th, 19th, 19th and 17th per Cots. From 2007 through 2015 Cots has them 15th, 15th, 17th, 17th, 17th, 13th, 19th, 16th and 20th on opening day. The only time they went cheap in the last 15+ years was 2016-18 when they ranked 30th, 30th and then 26th in their NLCS year.
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The new manager the Brewers hire will either be better, worse, or about the same as Counsell. I’ll reserve judgement until they’ve played some games next year. Right now there is no way to know if this will be a positive, negative or marginal transaction. Anyone acting like they already know the future is just projecting their own biases and pre-conceived notions.
