sveumrules

Yeah, they’re just two different profiles. Rooker is more boom or bust, both in terms of track record and plate discipline profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up a 70 wRC+, a 130 wRC+ or anything in between over the next two months. Canha is who he is at this point, a guy with a good idea what he’s doing at the plate, but not quite enough pop for a corner. Maybe he gets hot and puts up a 115 wRC+ for two months, but I also wouldn’t expect him to drop much below 90 either. Its basically Hiura vs Cutch from last year. I guess for me it seems like Canha would cost less to acquire just because he’s a rental, more expensive and has limited ceiling. Rooker has way more questions about his future performance, but also more potential upside at a lower cost, which is why I think the A’s would want at least one interesting prospect for him.

Haven’t watched any PAs besides on gameday here or there or highlights, but my best guess reading between the lines is, mostly a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking him, not chasing out of the zone, and doing damage when he does get pitches to hit. Before tonight his season was almost two equal halves in terms of PAs… April/May (195 PA) 254/308/418 (89 wRC+) 6.7 BB% | 24.6 K% June/July (196 PA) 311/372/531 (136 wRC+) 8.2 BB% | 13.8 K%

Lucroy, Brantley and Cain all turned out pretty decent. Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick have all just cracked MLB in the last year. Turang too, though he’s more of a fielder than a hitter. Chourio, Black and Quero are lined up to have a shot at MLB in the next year. There was a lull there no doubt between the end of the Melvin era and the beginning of Stearns tenure, but we’re in the middle of the best wave of positional prospects the org has produced in like fifteen years.

Brewers scored 7, 5 and 6 runs this series. With their normal run prevention they would have swept the Braves. I still believe run prevention is important.

Edwin with another 1-2-3 inning and two more punch outs. Currently at 74 pitches per the box. Checking his game logs he has gone six IP twice, but it does not look like he has come back out for a 7th inning yet this year.

Wisco tacks one more on via a Joe Gray Jr. single and Hendry Mendez double. Jimenez back on the mound top of six.

Rattlers up 3-0 with a Jose Acosta bomb scoring Darrien Miller and Ben Metzinger, who had each singled prior. Edwin Jimenez with five hitless scoreless frames and 3 BB | 7 K.

Is Eloy really a star though? There are 177 players with at least 1,500 PA since 2019. He comes in at 123 wRC+ (44th), -39.2 DEF (151st) and 5.8 WAR (129th).

Yeah, Devin Williams +11.20 WPA since 2020 is best among all pitchers, starters or relievers. His 7.2 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR are first among all relievers. His 178 K%+ is 3rd. He has faced 725 batters as a high leverage reliever used only in specific circumstances. Eloy, a supposed everyday player, has 1,081 PAs over that same stretch. Ohtani, JDM, Cruz, Giancarlo, Yordan, Ozuna, Vogelbach, Soler, Harper and Turner all have more DH PAs with an equal or better wRC+ as Eloy since 2020. Devin will also make considerably less than $48M over the next three years.

Is the DH penalty overly punitive? Maybe. But the one year Eloy played OF regularly he put up -10 DRS and -12 OAA in 957 innings. Playing DH is likely giving him a WAR boost because it theoretically keeps him healthier and for sure keeps his brutal glove out of the field.

Probably a couple things going on here. Its a small sample, so lotsa noise from the outset, though the plus stats are supposed to stabilize pretty quickly relative to other stats. But I think it’s mostly a case of measuring different things. xERA essentially just converts xwOBA to an ERA scale so it is measuring K/BB/HR rates together with StatCast batted ball results. The various plus numbers are only telling us about the raw pitch characteristics, I don’t believe they take actual results into account. What they tell me all together is AJSS hasn't had the best stuff or command in his 16 IP this year, but he has been inducing weak contact.

BTV lists him at -0.6, so essentially even value. Sure he has seasons of 138 and 144 wRC+, but those were only over 226 PAs and 327 PAs due to pandemic and injury. His career high in WAR is 1.7 because he has no defensive value and can’t stay healthy, has only topped 500 PAs once five years ago. If he had a bunch of seasons with 500 PA and a 140 wRC+, he’d be incredibly valuable, but he has yet to do both at the same time, or even crack 2.0 WAR in a season yet. Something like Jarvis or Moore would be the highest I would go on the BF Top 20.

Could still catch the Dodgers for that #2 seed (3 games back currently) and skip the first round completely. Or get the Reds in the first round, who we’ve owned this year. No doubt this team is a longshot to do much of anything in the playoffs, but it’s all just so random that it’s hard for me to say anyone is incapable of anything.

Whoops, bolded wrong team. So 4-3 for the underdogs over the last seven WS.

The first paragraph pretty perfectly encapsulates how much randomness is truly at play over any three game series. Sure, the better team wins the series more often than not, but not always. Over fifty some series a year, even the very best team will inevitably lose some, even to bad teams. The playoffs are a little different with a gauntlet of slightly longer five and seven game series, but how often does the “favorite” actually make it through? FanGraphs historical Playoff Odds go back to 2014, let’s check it and see with WS Odds at the start of the playoffs in the parentheses… 2014 Faves: DET (18.6%) WAS (19.5%) Actual: KCR (4.9%) SFG (3.2%) 2015 Faves: TOR (13.6%) LAD (22.9%) Actual: KCR (11.0%) NYM (9.2%) 2016 Faves: BOS (18.1%) CHC (18.7%) Actual: CLE (8.8%) CHC (18.7%) 2017 Faves: CLE (22.1%) LAD (16.6%) Actual: HOU (15.1%) LAD (16.6%) 2018 Faves: HOU (24.0%) LAD (21.0%) Actual: BOS (15.4%) LAD (21.0%) 2019 Faves: HOU (35.2%) LAD (16.7%) Actual: HOU (35.2%) WAS (7.6%) 2020 Faves: NYY (8.1%) LAD (20.0%) Actual: TBR (5.6%) LAD (20.0%) 2021 Faves: HOU (15.5%) LAD (16.9%) Actual: HOU (15.5%) ATL (9.6%) 2022 Faves: HOU (17.2%) ATL (16.9%) Actual: HOU (17.2%) PHI (5.9%) Being the best team certainly helps but didn’t mean anything in 2014-15. Over the last seven WS the Cubs Dynasty once and the Dodgers/Astros thrice each have made the WS as favorites, but the other seven WS entrants over that stretch came from the field. The underdogs have gone 4-3 in those most recent seven WS with the 2016 Cubs, 2020 Dodgers and 2022 Astros the only “favorites” to win it all.

Are they likely to have a similar price in trade though? Rooker is cheaper, younger and has way more team control remaining, with better numbers in 2023 on top of it all. I’m not saying they are infallible, but BTV has Rooker at +10.8 and Canha at -0.8 in median value.

According to MLBTR, Mets are also sending around $35M to TEX in the deal. Scherzer waived his NTC to facilitate the deal. Mets get Acuña the younger, currently sporting a 121 wRC+ with 42 SB | 5 CS as a 21 year old in AA.

Timber Rattlers did win the suspended game as Tanner Shears walked two and struck out three in the top of the tenth. Bottom half saw Matthew Wood intentionally walked, but Joe Gray Junior’s grounder to SS only yielded an out at first. Hendry Mendez was then intentionally walked to load the bases before Eduardo Garcia’s dribbler to 3B scored Robert Moore for the walk off.

Lotsa big nights for Biloxi with Tristen Lutz (2-3, 2xHR, BB), Wes Clarke (2-4, HR), Chourio (2-5, 3B), Isaac Collins (2-4, SF), Zavier Warren (1-3, BB), Freddy Zamora (2-3, SF, SB) and Lamar Sparks (2-4, 2B) all spending lotsa time on or circling the bases as the Shuckers roll 9-4.

Joe Gray Jr. big three run bomb. Hendry Mendez, Ben Metzinger, Jheremy Vargas all went 2-4. Robert Moore (single, two walks), Matthew Wood (single, walk) each on base multiple times. But Karlos Morales (1.1 IP | 2 BB | 3 K) had the only scoreless line as Wisco falls 11-3.

Logan Henderson with a gem, 5 IP | 2 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 8 K. Tyler Wehrle and Yerlin Rodriguez then combined for four scoreless and 2 H | 1 BB | 3 K. Luke Adams (who else?) with the big game at 2-2 with a double and two walks, while Gregory Barrios plated all three runs via a single and ROE as Carolina prevails 3-2.

You weren’t kidding on that Corniel line, 5 IP | 1 ER | 4 H | 0 BB | 8 K. Seems like if he can iron out his command (7.97 BB9), there’s some good stuff to work with at 10.62 K9 and a 51.0 GB% before tonight.

Yeah, think it will definitely be fluid between the four 2B/3B options, plus Anderson when he comes back too. And maybe even Turang in the mix again come September for defense/speed. Riding the hot hand, trying to play matchups. Toro being the only switch hitter among a bunch of righty options could play in his favor too.

Good summary, I’ve been trying to put together something like this, but there are just so many moving pieces. My best guess at the position player group post-deadline is… Ca: Contreras, Caratini 1B: Santana 2B/3B: Urias/Monasterio SS: Adames LF: Yelich CF: Wiemer RF: Frelick DH: TRADE Bench: three of Miller, Perkins, Taylor, Toro

Put me in the camp that none of the bats moved at the deadline will be both good enough and have enough team control remaining to require anyone in our top nine or so prospects. Even Lara and EBJ at 10/11 would be a tough pill to swallow for the kind of bats I believe are likely to be dealt. If anybody from the current BF Top 20 gets moved I’d hope it’s Moore or Jarvis, they’re probably the highest ranked position player and pitcher I’d be willing to give up personally. My guess is Black and Chourio get promoted to AAA after the deadline lining them up to start impacting the MLB club sometime in 2024.