sveumrules

One other thing the Mitchell / Cameron comparison does is exemplify the effect that batted ball profile can have on BABIP. 97-09 Cameron (109 wRC+) 125 BB+ | 147 K+ | 101 BABIP+ 96 LD+ | 82 GB+ | 123 FB+ 107 Pull+ | 98 Cent+ | 93 Oppo+ 22-26 Mitchell (114 wRC+) 137 BB+ | 154 K+ | 130 BABIP+ 107 LD+ | 116 GB+ | 78 FB+ 89 Pull+ | 101 Cent+ | 118 Oppo+ Two very fast players, with similar walk and strikeout heavy profiles, but one was a righty pulling a bunch of fly balls and ended up with an average BABIP while the other sprays a bunch of ground balls and line drives the other way out of the lefty box.

Yeah, I mostly framed it that way just to point out how compressed of a time it really was that the bullpen was melting down (even though it is still the majority of the season to this point). Over their last 486 games prior to this season the bullpen was credited with 78 losses (16% of all games). Their worst season out of the last three was 28 losses (17.2%) in 2024. From 2017 thru 2022 before that they were credited with 154 losses in 871 team games (17.7%). The bullpen losing eight of 33 games (24.2%) is still a healthy clip ahead of those paces and with those eight losses all occurring over a stretch of just 23 games (34.8%) positive regression was bound to be incoming. Maintaining that 16 to 18 percent clip from the last nine years might be tough with eight losses already on the books, but I'd hope by the end of all 162 we're closer to 20% than the current rate.

Looking at the individual WAR components Mitchell is at +9.1 batting, +5.2 base running, and +5.3 fielding runs so far for his career. Over that 1997-2009 window looks like Cameron was at +6.2 batting, +3.9 base running, and +8.7 fielding runs per 557 PA. Part of that base running edge for Mitchell also comes down to UBR (going 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc without making outs on the bases) not being tracked for the first five years of Cameron's run so he's probably losing a couple two tree tents of a run there.

When Cameron played from 1995 thru 2011 the league average strikeout rate gradually rose from 15.7% to 18.1%, so his 24.1% K rate shook out to a 147 K+. During the last five years that Mitchell has been active the league average strikeout rate has been between 22.1% and 22.7%, so his 34.3% K rate has shaken out to a 154 K+. Still worse than Cameron, no doubt, but not as much as the raw 10% difference might imply given how much the K rate exploded in the decade between their respective careers. Thru 557 career PA Mitchell has a 114 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR. During his prime from 1997 to 2009 Cameron had a 109 wRC+ and averaged 3.9 WAR per 557 PA.

2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 33.9 K% and .376 BABIP. 2026 Mitchell currently has a 36.0 K% and .408 BABIP. 2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 10.2 BB% and .179 ISO. 2026 Mitchell currently has an 18.4 BB% and .121 ISO. 2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 114 wRC+ over 443 PA. 2026 Mitchell currently has a 114 wRC+ over 114 PA. Garrett has somehow managed to take his already extreme plate profile to even farther out reaches so far this year with no change in the end of line results. Pretty remarkable, really. I'm just happy he's been healthy.

With a pair of NL Central series kicking off today (MIL vs STL and CHC vs CIN) and the season a lil over 1/5th in the books, now seems like as good a time as any to check in the on the five NLC teams to see where they are at, how they got there and how some of the prediction models think they might end up. Every team in the division is currently at least three games over .500, largely on account of playing each other only 32 times so far versus 72 games against the American League with a combined 44 W - 28 L record. CHC (22 W - 12 L) RunDiff: +42 (5th) BaseRuns: +53 (4th) PECTOA (93.6 W) 80.9% WinDiv | 95.2% Plyffs FanGraphs (89.3 W) 52.9% WinDIv | 83.2% Plyffs Position Players 122 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.44 R/G (2nd) +3.27 WPA (3rd) | +13 DRS (6th) Starting Pitchers (179 IP | 12th) 96 ERA- (13th) | 96 FIP- (11th) +0.97 WPA (11th) | 2.9 rWAR (13th) Relief Pitchers (123 IP | 21st) 95 ERA- (14th) | 109 FIP- (22nd) +0.77 WPA (10th) | 0.6 rWAR (15th) [preseason favorites and they have lived up to that billing mostly on account of an across the board dominant position player group while the pitching has been better than average but nothing particularly eye popping] STL (20 W - 14 L) RunDiff: 0 (10th) BaseRuns: -5 (16th) PECOTA (74.4 W) 0.1% WinDiv | 6.0% Plyffs FanGraphs (80.2 W) 6.1% WinDiv | 26.0% Plyffs Position Players 106 wRC+ (7th) | 4.88 R/G (9th) +2.04 WPA (4th) | +15 DRS (4th) Starting Pitchers (177 IP | 13th) 106 ERA- (20th) | 119 FIP- (27th) +0.15 WPA (19th) | 2.3 rWAR (17th) Relief Pitchers (130 IP | 15th) 122 ERA- (27th) | 109 FIP- (23rd) +0.81 WPA (9th) | -0.8 rWAR (27th) [kinda like the Cubs but with a not quite as good position player group and way worse pitching staff. To their credit, the bullpen has held leads with a WPA rank that sticks out and an MLB fewest three credited losses] CIN (20 W - 14 L) RunDiff: -22 (24th) BaseRuns: -29 (27th) PECOTA (78.8 W) 2.0% WinDiv | 22.7% Plyffs FanGraphs (80.6 W) 6.0% WinDiv | 27.1% Plyffs Position Players 88 wRC+ (26th) | 4.15 R/G (23rd) -0.29 WPA (16th) | -3 DRS (23rd) Starting Pitchers (171 IP | 18th) 112 ERA- (24th) | 106 FIP- (22nd) +0.33 WPA (16th) | 2.0 rWAR (21st) Relief Pitchers (132 IP | 10th) 96 ERA- (15th) | 110 FIP- (24th) +2.96 WPA (1st) | 1.3 rWAR (7th) [surviving almost exclusively on Win Probability Added from the bullpen] PIT (19 W - 16 L) RunDiff: +31 (6th) BaseRuns: +35 (5th) PECOTA (81.9 W) 6.5% WinDiv | 39.9% Plyffs FanGraphs (85.2 W) 23.1% WinDiv | 59.6% Plyffs Position Players 105 wRC+ (8th) | 5.14 R/G (6th) -1.41 WPA (22nd) | +3 DRS (19th) Starting Pitchers (175 IP | 15th) 89 ERA- (8th) | 82 FIP- (2nd) +1.40 WPA (6th) | 3.3 rWAR (10th) Relief Pitchers (143 IP | 6th) 88 ERA- (8th) | 96 FIP- (12th) +1.52 WPA (4th) | 1.0 rWAR (8th) [right there with the Brewers for the best pitching in the division but have been held back somewhat by an unclutch group of hitters so far with that negative WPA ranking] MIL (18 W - 15 L) RunDiff: +45 (4th) BaseRuns: +22 (7th) PECOTA (83.7 W) 10.5% WinDiv | 54.3% Plyffs FanGraphs (82.6 W) 11.9% WinDiv | 40.6% Plyffs Position Players 96 wRC+ (18th) | 5.21 R/G (4th) +1.29 WPA (7th) | +11 DRS (8th) Starting Pitchers (158 IP | 23rd) 85 ERA- (5th) | 88 FIP- (7th) +1.30 WPA (8th) | 3.7 rWAR (6th) Relief Pitchers (135 IP | 7th) 90 ERA- (9th) | 87 FIP- (7th) -1.10 WPA (25th) | 0.4 rWAR (17th) [offense has run boom or bust largely on account of injuries and being among the worst with bases empty (74 wRC+ | 29th) but among the best with RISP (136 wRC+ | 2nd). Pitching has been great outside of a 23 game stretch where the bullpen was credited with eight losses]

Mitchell was hitting 393/528/714 for a 238 wRC+ with RISP that ranked 3rd out of 132 batters with at least 30 PA with RISP entering the game today. His 20 RBI are 5th on that same leaderboard. Hard to be much more productive than that.

Yeah, for as much of a head start as Tatum, Giannis, and Jokic had on their playoff careers it's looking like SGA might be the first superstar of the post-LBJ/Curry Era to end up with two rings.

Entering today the Reds have scored 4.27 runs per game (20th) with a 90 wRC+ (25th) and +0.44 WPA (13th) The Brewers were at 5.31 runs per game (3rd) with a 99 wRC+ (14th) and +1.74 WPA (5th). The Reds record is primarily because of their bullpen at this point with an MLB best +3.12 Win Probability Added though their run prevention (94 ERA- | 14th) and peripherals (109 FIP- | 24th) suggest they are ripe for regression as the season rolls along. All of run differential (+45 to -22), BaseRuns (+24 to -29), PECOTA (58.0% to 25.2% playoff odds), and FanGraphs (42.3% to 26.9% playoff odds) favor the Brewers at this point.

Nashville holds on to win 5-1. Rom & Yoho combine for 4.1 scoreless hitless relief innings with 1 BB | 5 K.

HOLY HANDELFRY walks it off with a two run bomb in the tenth.

TRats picked up a pair of runs via Bitonti bomb, Dickinson single and Ragsdale double in the second but trail 4-2 heading to bottom of four.

Wilson tied up two each after eight. Handelfry double (& walk), Luis Lameda two RBI single (& walk), Juan Ortuno single (& walk), and Pedro Ibarguen (two singles) have accounted for most of the offense. Enderson Mercado went three scoreless (3 H | 2 BB | 5 K).

Looks like Cooper Pratt was a late scratch from the Sounds game today as they go up 1-0 bottom three via a Leonard single, Matos walk, Lara HBP, Wilken ground out sequence, and Jett walks to load the bases for Quero who walks home the second run of the inning.

Five Sunday Games so far with 31 runs scored equals 6.2 R/G when they should be resting. 27 Other Six Days of the Week Games with 139 runs scored equals 5.1 R/G on secular days, MoAr SuNdAy LiNeUpZ pLeAze

After hitting 10 HR over his first 1,727 pro PA, Luis Lara has gone deep for the SIXTH time already this year (over 131 PA) in the bottom of the first.

Handelfry with a three run HR and Jacob Morrison has 4 K | 3 BB over three scoreless frames so far as the Warbirds lead 4-0 heading into the fourth.

In 2025 the Brewers got a 123 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR at 1B, with both marks ranking 10th in MLB. At DH they had a 120 wRC+ (9th) and 2,4 WAR (7th). With all of Yelich, Vaughn, Bauers and Contreras turning in good results and returning for 2026 there wasn’t much playing time available at 1B/DH this offseason. The White Sox had much more run available coming off an 87 wRC+ and -0.9 WAR at DH plus an 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR at 1B in 2025.

Correa has a full no trade clause and is owed $85M through the 2028 season. Could see him maybe waiving the NTC again for a marquee big market WS contending franchise, but not sure he'd do it for Milwaukee or that Mark A would sign off on such a big ticket expenditure even if Carlos was willing to come here.

I think it's more a reflection of Zerpa and Megill's early struggles. Brewer's relievers were credited with 78 losses (16% of all games) from 2023 to 2025. So far this year they have been credited with eight losses in 31 games (25.8% of all games), with Zerpa and Megill a combined 0 W - 4 L. If the bullpen had maintained that 16% rate here in the early going the Brewers would have three fewer losses and be right on the nose for their pythag even with those handful of games running up their differential.

Has the offense been generally scuffling though? Average runs per game is 4.51 so far this year and they have 16 games scoring five or more runs (14 W - 2 L) with the other 14 games scoring four or fewer runs (2 W - 12 L). I’d say they’ve been more feast & famine, but either way to be running a 99 wRC+ and scoring 5.33 R/G (5th in MLB) with no Chourio or Vaughn, no Yelich for half the season, plus a number of spots with terrible production is more impressive than not all things considered. Things could and probably should be much worse than they’ve been. A big part of the Brewers positive run differential is that they are also 6th in MLB at 4.07 RA/G.

Have to wonder if the tepid interest he received in free agency this winter didn't lead to some sort of re-dedication to some of the finer points of his craft. His base running is also at +1.8 in the early going after posting slightly negative marks each of the last six seasons for a combined -5.8 BsR.

Yeah, after Pratt's first 75 PA he was sitting at 156/270/172 (30 wRC+). This recent hot streak (22 PA of 268 wRC+) has raised his seasonal line all the way up to an 85 wRC+. Over his first 99 PA at AAA as a 21 year old back in 2021 Brice Turang posted an 81 wRC+.

Offensive production at 3B has been down for a few years now. League average wRC+ for 3B ranged between 100 and 107 every season from 2012 through 2022. This is the image of a slugging third basemen that most fans still have in their head. Starting in 2023 it has been 96, 97, 96, and now a 98 wRC+ in the early going this year. As far as "power positions" go, LF is even worse with a league average 96 wRC+ so far this year that would be the lowest since at least 2002, the first season FanGraphs has positional splits available.

Perhaps yesterday's Spaghetti Policy game can be this year's Cribbage Board game.