sveumrules

Despite all the injuries, underperformers, and inconsistencies they are playing at a 101 Win pace at the moment. I don't think they are True Talent Level 101 Win team so of course I'd expect them to play at a lower W% from here on out. A team getting a .667 W% out of their #3 through #8 starters like the Brewers are is impossible to maintain, but it sure is fun to celebrate while it's happening. The good news is the Brewers know very well they will need more than the 13 pitchers on the OD roster to get through a season, which is why they normally stack their 40 Man with better depth options than most organizations, or keep a guy like Woodford around longer than fans would like to soak up those mostly meaningless innings. They typically add at least one arm every deadline as well. Some of those 6 or 7 pitchers on the IL will come back at some point down the road, others will inevitably go onto the IL in the meantime. The Brewers allowed the fewest R/G in 2023, the 4th fewest in 2024, the 3rd fewest in 2024, the 3rd fewest so far this year, and the fewest in total from 2023 thru present. Regression is incoming no doubt, but given their history with run prevention (they allowed the 7th fewest runs in MLB from 2017-22 also) I'd imagine they should be able to keep things within the top half dozen or so teams at limiting runs by the end of 162 games.

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games. In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games. In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (56.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games. In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games. So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games. Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

How bad has the Pirates defense been so far this year? Team FIP PIT (3.76 | 8th) STL (4.20 | 17th) CHI (4.48 | 24th) Team ERA PIT (4.00 | 13th) STL (4.14 | 17th) CHI (4.17 | 18th) Runs Allowed per Game CHI (4.41 | 15th) STL (4.48 | 16th) PIT (4.57 | 20th)

The Brewers are 16 W - 7 L (.696 W%) in games started by Misio and Harrison. The Brewers are 0 W - 5 L (.000 W%) in games started by Gasser or Ashby/Hall openers. The Brewers are 22 W - 11 L (.667 W%) in the games started by Sproat (6 W - 4 L), Patrick (5 W - 1 L), Woodruff (4 W - 2 L), Crow (3 W - 1 L), Henderson (3 W - 2 L), and Drohan (1 W - 1 L).

In yesterday's thread Mass Haas noted a pregame interview form a few days back where Rick Sweet mentioned there was a bug going around the Nashville clubhouse.

The Blue Jays signed Kaz Okamoto (4/$60M) and traded for Jesus Sanchez ($6.8M) to reinforce their offense, plus signed Dylan Cease for 7/$210M, Tyler Rogers for 3/$37M, and old friend Cody Ponce for 3/$30M on the pitching side. They went from a 112 wRC+ and 4.93 R/G in 2025 to a 95 wRC+ and 4.08 R/G so far this year and currently sit at 30 W - 33 L with a -7 run differential on the season. The Brewers mailed it in and went from a 107 wRC+ and 4.98 R/G in 2025 to a 101 wRC+ and 5.02 R/G so far this year. They are at 37 W - 23 L with a +89 run differential. The Brewers have gone from 86 to 92 to 93 to 97 wins over the last four seasons, from +37 to +81 to +136 to +172 run differential, all while shedding player, coaching, and front office talent every year along the way. They are on pace to improve on both of those totals again this year, where they might get another shot at the Dodgers in the postseason. Maybe they'll lose to the superior team again, or maybe they'll strike a blow to Capitalism on the eve of offseason labor negotiations. Toronto performed better than us in their short series against the Dodgers last fall, and beat us in Offseason Activity no doubt, but they somehow aren't as well positioned for a rematch as the mail it in Brewers are.

Who would you have gone after for 3B/SS instead? Perusing the positional leaderboards I don't see many names that moved teams this offseason. Doubt the Cardinals were trading Arenado or Donovan in the division. They could have signed proven 49 HR hitter Eugenio Suarez for a mere $15M but he's got a 78 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR so wouldn't have been much of an upgrade anyway. I think a more realistic scenario than mailing it in is that they turned over a bunch of stones looking for a 3B/SS that was available at a reasonable price, found nothing, so instead decided to wait it out until the prospects are ready.

Heisting Harrison plus Drohan & Hamilton too for Durbin and a Comp B pick was a pretty inspired move if they were just mailing it in. It takes hundreds of people working hard and doing their jobs incredibly well for the Brewers to experience the kind of top to bottom organizational success they are having now for the fourth consecutive season (2nd most wins in MLB since 2023 with a brimming farm system behind it), a marked improvement over the already pretty successful 2017-22 stretch (7th most wins in MLB).

Second game in a row too it looks like. Adams played all twelve of his games at 1B before being injured and since returning it has been four at 3B, two at DH, and one at 1B including his ACL stint. Might also be that Lara has that same bug that's been going around (last played June 2nd) and Jett is the best CF option left.

Could just be a little mental break? From May 14th thru his last game on the 27th he had 50 PA of 081/300/108 (37 wRC+) with a 34.0 K%.

I think it's mostly a byproduct of having such a deep system, there were 15 more or less consensus guys in the May voting which left Dylan as one of like a dozen guys fighting it out for those last five or so spots, though it looks like he did make it onto seven ballots with a high rank of #13 so did get some love. With Drohan and Crow coming up on graduation, plus Pratt, Jett, Lara, Yoho and maybe even Hardin as possibilities by the end of the year that should open up a few slots in the Top 20. Guys like JD Thompson and Brock Wilken at the back of the list might be candidates to drop off too if their performance doesn't step up in the interim. But yeah, couldn't ask for a much better return from injury than to come back strong in the Southern League where he was so overmatched (298 PA of 67 wRC+) back in 2024. Thought it was kind of interesting how similar his line this year is to his stint with Carolina back in 2023... 2023 Carolina (107 PA) 330/439/375 (137 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 13.1 K% .045 ISO | .387 BABIP 2026 Biloxi (220 PA) 313/436/381 (130 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 17.3 K% .068 ISO | .388 BABIP 2029 Milwaukee ?!?!?!?!?

"continue to lose" is an interesting characterization for a team with the 3rd best winning percentage in MLB for the season as a whole and the best record in MLB since April 26th. The Brewers were on a 24 W - 8 L run before these last two losses, when you play to a .750 W% for over a month losses are inevitably incoming because that kind of pace just isn't sustainable over 162 games. For the season as a whole the Brewers .617 W% is a 100 win pace. Do we believe the Brewers are a true talent 100 win team? I know I'd take the under, but 98 or 99 would still be a new franchise record at least. If the Brewers can play to a 100 win pace punting on five roster spots (primarily because guys like Woodruff, Henderson, Koenig, Lockridge are injured [unless they aren't legit enough either]) how many teams do you believe actually run 26 deep? If that is your expectation you might be setting yourself up to never be satisfied.

The Brewers offense as currently constituted has received... 210 PA of 72 wRC+ from Sal Frelick 182 PA of 53 wRC+ from Luis Rengifo 164 PA of 78 wRC+ from David Hamilton 141 PA of 58 wRC+ from Joey Ortiz 74 PA of -7 wRC+ from Blake Perkins Put it all together and those five players have combined for -37.3 batting runs. Throw in another 43 brutal PA from Greg Jones and Luis Matos earlier in the season and that is 814 PA (36% of the team total) adding up to -43.1 batting runs. Fun side question, at the end of the year will those seven players PA be more or less than 36% of the team total? So three to four less than zero lineup spots per game, plus Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich each missing sizable chunks of the season to date, and I'd say being 6th in MLB at 5.02 runs per game so far is more cause for celebration than for concern. The Brewers will undoubtedly make changes to the offense twixt now and September, so I'm not sure how relevant the offense as constructed today really is. Will adding rookies like Pratt, Jett, and/or Lara plus maybe trading for a bat at the deadline be enough to close the gap between the Brewers and the presumably more legit offenses of the Dodgers, Braves, Nationals, Pirates, and Yankees ahead of them in the R/G column? Probably not. Will it raise the floor of the bottom third of the lineup? Maybe, maybe not. The future is uncertain, but what is more certain is that should the Brewers ever happen to win a World Series before any of our peepholes close up on this world it will involve no shortage of miracles along the way, and probably won't be because they had a team that instilled the most confidence on an internet screen.

That is largely a function of Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich being hurt for a good chunk of the season. Bauers has two fewer PA because they were still shielding him from LHP early in the year. Sal has gotten the majority of his PA in the 7th spot (88), followed by 8th (46), and 6th (41), plus six games batting leadoff (30 PA), and one in the five hole (5 PA).

Yeah, with 50 IP last year and a career high of 128 IP back in 2022 my best guess is the Brewers won't want Crow going much over 100 IP this year. Maybe planning to continue with the shorter starts (he's averaged about 80 pitches in his ten appearances this year) until he reaches a certain point then transition him to shorter relief outings.

Here is how their minor league numbers stack up going back to 2025... Hardin (144 IP) 3.50 ERA | 2.78 FIP | 2.94 xFIP 26.2 K% | 6.0 BB% | 0.50 HR9 47.3 Groundball% | 4.36 K/BB Crow (85 IP) 3.92 ERA | 3.25 FIP | 3.07 xFIP 29.5 K% | 7.4 BB% | 0.85 HR9 47.4 Groundball% | 3.96 K/BB I'd say the main differentiators are that Hardin is a little more built up at the moment with 96 IP last year versus only 50 IP for Crow coming off injury. Sounds like Coleman has more advanced secondaries leading to the better K rate, where I believe Tyson has a little more juice on the heater.

He's got two. Here is how Jackson's early season batting line compares to his overall 2024-25 numbers... 2024-25 (1,162 PA) 272/317/463 (115 wRC+) 5.9 BB% | 20.8 K% | 51.0 Swing% 2026 (112 PA) 284/348/431 (122 wRC+) 8.9 BB% | 26.8 K% | 45.5 Swing% Lowered swing rate leading to elevated BB and K rates is a pretty good indicator that he is trying to get his ideal approach dialed in. Let's see how long it took him to make those adjustments in his previous seasons... 2024 (first 176 PA) 207/251/323 (60 wRC+) 5.7 BB% | 27.3 K% | 52.2 Swing% 2024 (last 397 PA) 305/360/527 (144 wRC+) 7.3 BB% | 18.4 K% | 47.2 Swing% 2025 (first 209 PA) 236/254/419 (82 wRC+) 1.9 BB% | 22.5 K% | 56.4 Swing% 2025 (last 380 PA) 289/338/488 (127 wRC+) 6.8 BB% | 19.5 K% | 51.5 Swing% If the last couple years are any indicator sometime in the next 50 to 100 PA or so Jackson should figure things out, which could be extra scary since he is already starting from a much higher early baseline than in either of his other two seasons.

Hardin last pitched on 0528 and Crow last pitched on 0529 so starting them tomorrow and Thursday in that order would would give each that extra fifth days rest between appearances. With a full 40 Man and no other real good options to send back down to Nashville on the active roster it could finally mean a DFA for Woodford if Tyson is indeed getting the call.

Home stadium was one of my first thoughts too, but StatCast actually has Oracle with slightly higher overall Park Factors (98 3yr | 97 for 2026) than AmFam (97 3yr | 96 for 2026). Looks like the elevated HR factor that primarily propped up scoring at Miller Park has dwindled over the years... 2011 3yr HR Factor: 121 2014 3yr HR Factor: 132 2017 3yr HR Factor: 112 2020 3yr HR Factor: 110 2023 3yr HR Factor: 109 2026 3yr HR Factor: 103

Misio's game log on BRef has two starts on standard four days rest this year, seven starts with an extra fifth day of rest, and then two more on six days rest.

I'm seeing 63.1 IP at AAA, then 66 IP in MLB, plus another 12 IP in the postseason totaling 141.1 IP for Misio last year.

There had been some talk in yesterday's IGT about who the most consistently good Brewers hitter is so I thought I'd pull some splits going back to July of last year when Vaughn joined the team and see what they have to say about things... Contreras (559 PA | 120 wRC+) vsRHP: 406 PA of 122 wRC+ vsLHP: 153 PA of 115 wRC+ Home: 280 PA of 158 wRC+ Away: 279 PA of 82 wRC+ Empty: 297 PA of 108 wRC+ Runners: 262 PA of 135 wRC+ Turang (556 PA | 140 wRC+) vsRHP: 395 PA of 157 wRC+ vsLHP: 161 PA of 99 wRC+ Home: 281 PA of 158 wRC+ Away: 275 PA of 123 wRC+ Empty: 306 PA of 110 wRC+ Runners: 250 PA of 179 wRC+ Yelich (426 PA | 122 wRC+) vsRHP: 289 PA of 122 wRC+ vsLHP: 137 PA of 122 wRC+ Home: 205 PA of 135 wRC+ Away: 221 PA of 110 wRC+ Empty: 222 PA of 108 wRC+ Runners: 204 PA of 137 wRC+ Vaughn (327 PA | 147 wRC+) vsRHP: 213 PA of 109 wRC+ vsLHP: 114 PA of 220 wRC+ Home: 160 PA of 163 wRC+ Away: 167 PA of 133 wRC+ Empty: 156 PA of 172 wRC+ Runners: 171 PA of 125 wRC+ Chourio (322 PA | 126 wRC+) vsRHP: 244 PA of 125 wRC+ vsLHP: 78 PA of 131 wRC+ Home: 160 PA of 104 wRC+ Away: 162 PA of 148 wRC+ Empty: 189 PA of 143 wRC+ Runners: 133 PA of 102 wRC+ Bauers (295 PA | 132 wRC+) vsRHP: 239 PA of 141 wRC+ vsLHP: 56 PA of 94 wRC+ Home: 148 PA of 128 wRC+ Away: 147 PA of 135 wRC+ Empty: 154 PA of 134 wRC+ Runners: 141 PA of 129 wRC+ Adding up the total deviance for each of those six splits from their overall wRC+ mark in bold italics gives us a most to least consistent order of Yelich (54), Bauers (59), Chourio (91), Contreras (110), Turang (162), and Vaughn (188).

Overall production is pretty similar with the Brewers at an even 100 wRC+ for the season while the Giants are a couple points back at a 98 wRC+. I'd say the Giants lower run scoring is probably a convergence of a few different factors working in conjunction... Shape of Production: while their wRC+ marks are pretty close, how the two teams have gotten there is quite different. The Brewers have an OBP heavy 334/366 line, while the Giants are SLG heavy at 300/403 with a 5.9 BB% that is historically bad. Runners in Scoring Position: with their high OBP / low SLG approach the Brewers have gotten 100 more PA with RISP (652 to 552), and have hit much better in those opportunities (135 to 91 wRC+), resulting in an extra 62 RBI (228 to 166). The base running you noted plays into it as well. FanGraphs has the Giants at -4.8 BsR (worst in MLB) and while the Brewers haven't been running quite as hair on fire as recent years they are still on the right side of the ledger at +1.1 BsR (12th). Base Runs is a tool that estimates how many runs team would score with neutral sequencing. Based on the sum total of their offensive outcomes Base Runs thinks the Giants should have scored 4.27 R/G and the Brewers should have scored 4.51 R/G so far. Not too far off. But the Brewers have been so good (& the Giants so bad) with RISP that their actual runs per game end up at 4.98 (+0.47 R/G) for the Brewers and 3.90 (-0.37 R/G) for the Giants.

Seven games likely spanning over twelve hours of minor league action from the first pitches on the Island to the final out on the Complex, and all available via a single link to boot? Summer has officially begun.

Third year RHP Lukas Gonzalez of DSL Blue opens the season with that most elusive of Island Sightings -- 2.1 clean IP of 0 R | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K work. The aforementioned 16yo Leanders Matos added a double to his HR for a five RBI day as the Azules prevailed 11 to 5 despite five errors afield. DSL Gold lost 5 to 2 in a much more subdued affair with second year 1B Jefer Lista doubling and walking thrice while LF Manny De Los Santos debuted with a double, two walks, and two stolen bags (plus a caught stealing).