sveumrules

Another 10%-ish of the schedule is in the books and its been rough going here for NL Central clubs the last week or so with the Brewers just breaking a six game losing streak, the Cardinals just breaking an eight game losing streak, the Pirates in the midst of a seven game losing streak, while the Cubs had their own little 1-6 streak before the weekend and the Reds, well they played some games too. The projections are a little slower to react to chaos than the average fan, but they are starting to see the NLC as a little more interesting race than they did before the season started or after the first 10% of games played. Current computations... BPro MIL: 87 W | 75% Div | 79% PO CHI: 78 W | 9% Div | 14% PO STL: 77 W | 9% Div | 13% PO PIT: 76 W | 6% Div | 9% PO 538 MIL: 88 W | 61% Div | 74% PO CHI: 80 W | 18% Div | 33% PO PIT: 78 W | 12% Div | 25% PO STL: 75 W | 7% Div | 16% PO FanGraphs MIL: 86 W | 57% Div | 65% PO CHI: 80 W | 17% Div | 26% PO PIT: 79 W | 13% Div | 21% PO STL: 79 W | 13% Div | 20% PO I probably agree with the more evenly distributed FanGraphs spread the most at the moment, seems a little too early in the season still for the degree of confidence BPro is showing in the Brewers.

Cavaliers got bounced in the first round. Mitchell and Garland are kind of redundant as undersized guards while they don’t really have much at SF. Maybe a sign and trade around Middleton/Garland with other pieces added as needed?

Magic could maybe make sense as a sign and trade for Middleton. Hammond is the GM and it would give Wagner/Banchero/this year’s lotto pick that Champion Veteran to help them start their rise towards contention. Don’t really like any of the young players they’d potentially send back though, would have to be some combo of Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Bol Bol…blah blah.

Yeah, wonky site last few days + losing streak + Sunday afternoon game + beautiful weather in SE Wisco = sparse game thread. Hopefully they can hold on to this one and head back to Milwaukee on a high note.

Sounds like Willson Contreras will primarily be playing DH/OF for the Cardinals moving forward.

I know it’s kind of the boring answer, but a lot of it is just regression to the mean and small sample results that were always going to be difficult to replicate over larger samples. 2020 59 IP | 155 K%+ | 109 BB%+ | 23 HR9+ | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP- (breakout Burnes, but relievers put up numbers like this over 59 IP every year) 2021 167 IP | 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- (Cy Burnes, but the challenge was always going to be doing it for 200 IP) 2022 pre-ASB 113 IP | 144 K%+ | 79 BB%+ | 86 HR9+ | 53 ERA- | 73 FIP- (mostly up to task first half of last year, ERA was even lower, but FIP showing the cracks with K, BB and especially HR rates all slipping) 2022 post-ASB to now 128 IP | 112 K%+ | 82 BB%+ | 94 HR9+ | 95 ERA- | 90 FIP- (these are not the kind of numbers that make a compelling arbitration case and certainly won’t net a quarter billion in FA) I don’t know what the fixes are, I’m just some guy on the internet, but I do know that no one maintains a 155 K%+ or 23 HR9+ or 38 FIP- or 53 ERA- over multiple seasons and hundreds of innings. I also don’t think Corbin’s struggles over his last 128 IP are necessarily indicative of a new true talent level moving forward either. Add it all up and since 2020 Corbin is at a 65 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 67 xFIP- over 468 IP. Give his most recent performance a little more weight and I feel like somewhere around a 75 ERA-/FIP- is probably something like a realistic ceiling for Burnes until he starts stringing together some outings. Thats still a great SP and someone you’d love to have on the hill for a playoff game, just not OMG Pedro reincarnate…cuz no one ever is for more than a little while.

Bad news: Brewers are losing 5-4. Good news: LHP out, RHP in

Sounds like Black was a late scratch tonight, hopefully nothing serious and he’ll be back out there Saturday. Think Tobias Myers is lined up to start on the mound. Enjoy the game!! I took a minor league road trip back in 2017 where I saw Burnes throw an 8 inning gem with Biloxi then caught a “stacked” Carolina squad that had Trent Grisham, Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, Jake Gatewood and (still a 3B then) Lucas Erceg.

Eh, looked like a genius move first time up when he roped a nice opposite field double on a fastball. Second time up when he flailed at three off speed it looked like the more familiar Brewers vs LHP experience.

Eh, looked like a genius move first time up when he roped a nice opposite field double on a fastball. Second time up when he flailed at three off speed it looked like the more familiar Brewers vs LHP experience.

Tonight will be William’s first time batting leading off in MLB. He has historically (937 OPS in 185 career PA) and this year (953 OPS in 30 PA) been the best hitter we have vs LHP so might as well try to get him as many PAs as possible to maybe shake things up given our southpaw struggles.

Monasterio three run bomb the only early action with Nashville up 3-2 in the 2nd inning. Biloxi down 2-0 in the fourth with just a single (Murray) and three walks (Clarke, Quero, Lopez) so far.

Wisco currently trailing 4-3 in the 4th. Moore, Miller, Eduarqui and Je’Von have all doubled while Metzinger chipped in a two run bomb.

Carolina up 3-1 in the 7th. Guilarte with a double and pair of RBI while Rudy had a nice debut striking out 7 against only 1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB over 4.1 IP

Noticed something similar last night where new posts weren't showing up under my Unread Content tab. Wasn't sure if the site was just being buggy or if I maybe changed the settings on accident

Excited to see what Edgardo Ordonez can do stateside. Over the last two seasons, as a 17-18 year old in the DSL, playing mostly catcher (273 innings) and some first base (118 innings) he has hit 293/413/424 (136 wRC+) over 223 PAs with a 14.3 BB% and 21.1 K%.

All things considered, think Quero and Chourio have at least held their own given the aggressive placement starting in AA. Jeferson is at 279/311/419 (100 wRC+) in 45 PA while Jackson is 264/298/414 (92 wRC+) in 94 PA. Both have been pretty aggressive at the plate (4.4 and 5.3 BB%) which is probably to be expected, but haven’t struck out at ridiculous rates (24.4 and 23.4 K%) which is encouraging. Hopefully as they get more exposure to AA pitching they’ll start to get a little more selective in the zone and start putting up some bigger numbers as the season progresses.

Not to get too morbid on a Sunday afternoon, but I just realized that when Colin eventually passes he will die a Rea.

Has been absolutely brutal in 9 AAA IP this year… 13.03 ERA | 9.49 FIP | 14.9 K9 | 12.1 BB9 | 3.72 HR9 Did manage a 3.29 FIP (84 FIP-) in 45 MLB IP last year though.

Neto Trout Ohtani Renfroe Drury Thaiss Urshela Lamb Rengifo (Suarez) will try to avoid being swept by Brosseau Adames Contreras Anderson Tellez Voit Wiemer Miller Perkins (Rea)

They’ve been brutal vs LHP again with a 72 wRC+ entering tonight, but they are above average overall on R/G (4.76 vs 4.56 MLB average) and vs RHP with a 108 wRC+. Last year they scored the 10th most runs in baseball, I’d say that is functional.

Before the season started there were probably six to eight teams that looked like sure sellers at the deadline. Now that we’re a couple dozen games in we’ve got a little more clarity. These are the teams who I’ll be paying a little closer attention to than their winning percentage and current BPro playoff odds warrant with an eye towards the deadline… Likely Sellers OAK (5-21 | 0%), KCR (6-20 | 0%), CHW (7-19 | 4%), COL (8-18 | 0%), WAS (9-15 | 0%), DET (9-15 | 0%), CIN (10-15 | 1%) Probable Sellers SFG (11-14 | 15%), SEA (11-14 | 17%), BOS (13-13 | 12%) MIA (13-13 | 20%) Then there are the fast starters who the projections are going to need some more time to buy into completely before their playoff odds catch up with their current standings… Need to Keep it Up ARI (14-12 | 12%), PIT (18-8 | 13%), BAL (17-8 | 15%), TEX (14-11 | 17%), CHC (14-10 | 17%)

MLB has him at #16 on their Brewers list with this scouting report… Jackson Chourio is likely going to be the headliner of the Brewers’ Jan. 15, 2021, international signing class for years to come, but Guilarte, who signed for $1 million out of Venezuela, is making a name for himself too. He moved stateside to the Arizona Complex League in 2022 with promising results – a .306/.403/.371 line and eight steals in 36 games against competition roughly two years older than him on average. Brewers officials quickly started paying more and more attention to Guilarte the longer he performed in the domestic complex circuit. He demonstrated a strong knowledge of the strike zone by walking in 13.2 percent of his ACL plate appearances, and he tended to make contact on pitches that did land in the zone. That contact was mostly on the ground, however; his 64.1 percent ground-ball rate was highest among all Brewers Minor League qualifiers. There is some physical projection remaining in his 6-foot, 160-pound frame, but it may take more than just added strength to give him anything close to average power. That said, Guilarte has a promising floor because of his overall athleticism. He’s a plus runner already, and his range, defensive actions and significant arm strengths should keep him at the six the higher he climbs. Those skills could also translate well at second and third base, where he got some looks in 2022. He’ll be an asset on the dirt no matter what, and any more impact out of the bat would send him flying up the Brewers' prospect ranks in his first full season.

Not sure what the big board pick values are, but feel like I ended up pretty close here. Only real difference is getting the 2nd rounder this year instead of 3rd rounders in both of this year & next year, plus I missed the crucial 5th/6th swap.

Yeah, something like that. His K/BB ratios are still better than average, but the HR rate and ERA have been essentially right at league average over that stretch. I think the Ks will bounce back as the season goes on, but that historic level of HR prevention from 20/21 very likely isn’t coming back again for any extended stretch of IP, which puts his ceiling moving forward much closer to 1st half of 22 for me. That’s still an All Star or #1/#2 starter depending how you want to slice it, just not OMG best pitcher in baseball level like 21/22.