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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Here are Burnes breakdowns by year with 2022 split in half at the ASB... 2020 59 IP | 155 K%+ | 109 BB%+ | 23 HR9+ | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP- (first glimpse of CY Burnes calibre performance, though the walks were still high) 2021 167 IP | 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- (Ks and HRs about the same, massive improvement in walks brought the FIP down 8%) 2022 H1 113 IP | 144 K%+ | 79 BB%+ | 86 HR9+ | 53 ERA- | 73 FIP- (Ks down slightly, walks and HRs especially up big time, ERA still fine but FIP showing cracks) 2022 H2 88 IP | 123 K%+ | 75 BB%+ | 102 HR9+ | 98 ERA- | 86 FIP- (Ks falling off more, HR climbing higher, ERA now in league average-ish range) Overall 2023 is pretty ugly so far at 27 IP | 86 K%+ | 95 BB%+ | 85 HR9+ | 106 ERA- | 102 FIP-, remove the first two clunkers and Burnes is at a lil more respectable 18 IP | 106 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 43 HR9+ | 46 ERA- | 71 FIP- over his last three starts, which isn't that far off from the first half of 2022 at least from a bottom line standpoint, though the Ks are still way down. Add it all up, and from the 2nd half of 2022 through today Burnes is at 114 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 98 HR9+ | 100 ERA- | 90 FIP- over his last 116 IP.
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The short version is the projections believe the Brewers are over performing on both offense (4.90 R/G vs 4.31 R/G projected rest of season) and run prevention (3.29 RA/G vs 4.25 RA/G projected rest of season) through the first 13% of the season. Conversely, the Cardinals have been about as expected on offense (4.62 R/G vs 4.52 R/G projected rest of season) while their pitching probably isn’t quite as bad as their current ERA (4.90 RA/G vs 4.28 RA/G projected rest of season) suggests.
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What do you mean by accurate? 100% accuracy? That is impossible. More accurate than any one individual’s brain can muster on its own given the nearly infinite variables involved? Surely. This article’s a few years old at this point after the Rays hired Sullivan, but it does a good job of showing how even after the season is halfway over the projections are still much better at predicting what happens in the second half than either of what had already happened (actual record) or what should have happened (pythag record) during the first half.
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Also have to give a little love to two other Fielder instances that proved he wasn’t to be trifled with, when he jacked up Manny Parra against the dugout wall and the time he tried to go fight the entire Dodgers team in their own clubhouse. Whoever answered the door earned their money that day for sure. -
Prince ending his career with the exact same number of Home Runs as his dad has to be one of my favorite fun facts of all time. Good thing Prince was always hustling, without those two inside the park HR he would have come up a couple dingers short of Cecil.
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Was kind of surprised they sent him back out to the field after he had obviously tweaked something on the slide. Super small MLB sample so far, but Garrett has been a man of extremes. Of 484 players with at least 100 PAs since 2022 only Hiura, Mav Phillips and somebody named Dermis Garcia have struck out at a higher clip than Mitchell’s 40% rate. On the other end of the spectrum, no one has approached Garrett’s .468 BABIP with the next best mark Stone Garrett at .422. Hopefully he can come back before the season ends as the main thing Mitchell needs is reps, still only at 176 total games and 687 combined PAs since 2021.
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Sounds like target date is Opening Day 2027, so that gives them three plus years to return to being an MLB calibre organization before they relocate. Will the A’s AAA team currently in Las Vegas just move to Oakland then?
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Rookies having valleys that outnumber their good stretches is totally expected as they adjust to MLB, I don’t see how it’s any more or less of a not great look than when veterans with an established track record and thousands of MLB PAs do the same thing. Turang’s 9.3 BB% and 25.9 K% are considerably ahead of Mitchell’s 6.5 BB% and 38.7 K% on both fronts. Wiemer has the worst actual results (56 wRC+) but somehow the best plate discipline with a 13.3 BB% and 21.7 K% so far. Throw in positive defense & base running and BRef has the trio down for 1.4 WAR already, even with all their to be expected struggles.
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Did the same thing the other day. Only six games vs NLC teams of the first 18 games so far. Don’t play another NLC team until game 41 on May 15th. Don’t play CIN for the first time until June 2nd (57th game), don’t play PIT for the first time until June 16th (69th game).
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Obviously super early still, but refreshing nonetheless to look at the standings and see the Rays, Twins, Rangers and DBacks all joining the Brewers atop their respective divisions. Even the Braves topping the NLE is kinda underdog vibes given Cohen’s offseason spending spree.
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With 10% of the season in the books, here’s how the projections have shifted… BPro MIL: 89 W | 67% Div | 80% PO STL: 84 W | 26% Div | 44% PO 538 MIL: 92 W | 64% Div | 81% PO STL: 83 W | 19% Div | 44% PO FanGraphs MIL: 88 W | 51% Div | 71% PO STL: 86 W | 36% Div | 59% PO Cubs still projected just under .500 in that 78-80 win range. Next opponents for MIL are at SEA, vs BOS, vs DET and vs LAA. Cardinals have vs ARI, at SEA, at SFG and at LAD coming up.
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Crowd looked decent (for the Trop) on the highlights I saw. Checked their attendance and it was 21K last night vs 25K (which is a sellout for the Trop) on opening day and as low as 11K earlier in the week on Sunday. Outside of four Yankees games and Opening Day, the Rays only had two home games over 21K in 2022, so I guess that’s a pretty strong turnout for them.
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Awesome to see Sparks starting off hot out of the gate. Thought the AA placement out of Indy ball was aggressive, but looks like he had reached A+ previously with the Orioles in 2021 (and posted a respectable 102 wRC+) so maybe not. Would be pretty rad to unearth a possible gem on the position player side to go along with all the potential arms. Has anybody ever compiled a full list of pitchers in the system signed out of the Indy leagues? I know Topa was traded, but Cousins, Meeker, Middendorf, Thompson all come immediately to mind and I’m sure I’m missing some others.
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Brewers team ERA of 2.83 ranks 4th, their 4.28 FIP is right in the middle at 15th and their 4.57 xFIP ranks 17th. Regression is surely incoming, it’ll just come down to how much, though it should also be noted the Brewers team ERA has beaten their FIP in every full season since 2016 leading to the 4th best cumulative margin in MLB during that time. Tough to read too much into the numbers when the samples are still so small and noisy this early on, even at the team level. Here are the ranges from best to worst for last year vs so far this year… Team ERA 2022: 2.80 to 5.08 2023: 2.17 to 7.54 Team K/9 2022: 9.79 to 7.38 2023: 10.61 to 6.35 Team HR/9 2022: 0.83 to 1.56 2023: 0.42 to 1.97 Looking at the projections, FanGraphs has them 12th for rest of season runs allowed and BPro has them around 8th/9th. That range feels more accurate to me of where they’ll likely end up than either of their current ERA or FIP/xFIP rankings to this point.
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Of course it’s arguing semantics, words have meaning and Tyrone has put up four WAR over 729 PAs in his career. That kind of production is not generally available for a dime a dozen. From 2021-22, Taylor ranked 146th in WAR among all position players. He ranked 55th among OF. That’s pretty excellent production for a fourth OF considering there are 30 teams with nine players and three OF each. A mediocre, or average player will clock around two WAR per 600 PAs. Players who actually are a dime a dozen typically come in closer to zero WAR when they receive MLB playing time. Thus the replacement level or AAAA moniker. If you said Taylor “was only ever considered a legit prospect one time but that was eight years ago” that would be accurate, but it is not the same thing as never being considered a prospect.
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A dime a dozen is a subjective figure of speech. Typically, replacement level or AAAA players would best fit this characterization in baseball parlance. The numbers I provided are objective measures which demonstrate how much TT deviates from mediocrity (for good or bad) in those specific facets of the game. Yes, the end result is a mediocre overall player who still has value as a CF capable 4th OF at minimum salary, but that doesn’t mean he arrived at that destination by being “mediocre at every facet of the game”. Like pretty much every other player he is better at some things and worse at others. TT also came in at #93 on the 2015 BA Top 100, so your characterization of him “never being a prospect” is off too.
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All I am arguing is that your characterization of Taylor as being “mediocre at every facet of the game” is lazy and factually incorrect. He is well above average at hitting fly balls (118 FB%+), hitting for power (131 ISO+), running (80th percentile sprint speed) and playing defense (+13 DRS | +12 OAA) He is well below average at walking (70 BB%+) and hitting line drives (81 LD%+) which are massive contributing factors to him posting a mediocre 94 BABIP+ | 95 OBP+ | 98 AVG+ for his career.
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Sure it means something, it means that once adjusted for park factors Tyrone’s isolated slugging was equal on a rate basis to those players during that time span. Of course, those other players have exponentially more PAs, the rest of their abilities make them better all around hitters. Rizzo had a 122 BB%+, Machado had a 112 BB%+ and 112 AVG+, Bregman had a 170 BB%+ and 110 AVG+, Altuve had a 112 BB%+ and 115 AVG+. Tyrone’s main problem is he isn’t close to mediocre at walking. His 70 BB%+ is thirty percent below league average. He also isn’t particularly good at getting hits with only a 94 BABIP+, likely because of his 118 FB%+ (which also isn’t mediocre).
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Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras
sveumrules replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Raw numbers don’t do Murphy’s offense justice since OAK is one of the toughest hitters parks in MLB. Since debuting his 117 wRC+ has only been bettered by Will Smith (134), Sal Perez (123) and Willson Contreras (119) among qualified catchers. He has also graded out positive by DRS (+11) and framing (+18.7) for his career. Add it all up and only JTR (12.8) and Smith (10.4) have topped Murphy’s 10.2 WAR since 2020. Contreras has a 120 wRC+ over 603 career plate appearances, so he has only been about 3% better with the bat than Murphy, and also has much more uncertainty around his future performance since he has less than half of Sean’s sample size to this point. William’s defense (-9 DRS | -6.8 framing) has also graded out negatively in his brief career. The Braves likely preferred Murphy (even at a higher price point) because he is a better catcher with much more certainty around his future performance. -
Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras
sveumrules replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Having pitchers that are consistently around the zone helps as it increases opportunities. The reputation of the pitcher on the mound certainly plays a role too. At the same time, Lucroy broke all the framing record posting +146 FRM from 2010-14 with the closest thing to an elite starter in that stretch being a season and a half of Greinke. -
Except Isolated Slugging. Tyrone's 131 ISO+ ranks 54th out of 330 players with at least 700 PA from 2019-22. Rizzo, Machado, Altuve, and Bregman also clocked in with a 131 ISO+ over that stretch. And playing defense. Taylor's +13 DRS ranked 30th out of 106 OFers with at least 1,500 innings from 2019-22, while his +12 OAA ranked 22nd among that same sample of 106 OFers.
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Ichiro was a superb defender (3rd all time in DRS for a RF) with one of the best OF arms of all time. Frelick is a maybe CF/probably LF with a middling arm. Cain and Gomez were elite defensive CFers, ranking 2nd and 10th among all CFs since DRS was created 20 years ago. Frelick is highly unlikely to match that kind of production in the field. Speedy OF with plate discipline and contact over power, but not quite skilled enough with the glove to be an everyday CF…sounds a lot like former Brewer Darryl Hamilton to me.
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Clayton will be lucky to carve out a career as anything more than an up/down optionable reliever at this point. Asking him to face AAA pitchers after four years of not hitting professionally might be stretching him a little thin.
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Sounds like Oneil Cruz fractured his left ankle in a play at the plate today.
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Obviously super early still, but league average BA was at .248 entering today vs .231 in April of last year. Ball might be a little juicier again this year too with a .161 Isolated Slugging and 12.6 HR/FB% so far. Last few Aprils for reference… 2022: .137 ISO | 10.0 HR/FB% 2021: .157 ISO | 13.3 HR/FB% 2019: .176 ISO | 14.4 HR/FB% 2018: .156 ISO | 11.9 HR/FB% 2017: .160 ISO | 12.8 HR/FB%
