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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Feliciano’s breakout at A+ (129 wRC+) came during his age 20 season and was accompanied by a 6.0 BB% and an alarming 28.8 K%. Quero just finished up his age 19 season split between A/A+ and while he didn’t hit quite as well with only a 116 wRC+ he showed a much better plate discipline profile with a 7.4 BB% and 18.8 K%. I don’t think anyone is haunted by anything, but to carry out the analogy I’d wager Quero ends up more helped along by the ghost of Maldonado past than he ends up spooked by the spectre of Feliciano (or other catchers with completely different profiles).
  2. sveumrules
    Right, because all of them (except Giancarlo) can field a position and none of them struck out thee very most out of the 317 players with at least 250 PA in 2022. Keston’s lack of playing time is tied directly to those two factors. The reason say Joey Gallo, gets more playing time than Keston despite them both being high strikeout power hitters is because Gallo walks more (16.0 BB% from 2019-22 vs 7.4% for Hiura), slugs more (.249 ISO vs .216 ISO) and fields better (+37 DRS vs -16 DRS).
  3. sveumrules
    Yet, they all finished with higher WAR than Keston (0.8). OPS is only one portion of a players value. If a player can’t field a position, and strikes out 41.7% of the time (worst in 2022 min 250 PA), its difficult to get consistent playing time.
  4. sveumrules
    "He’s a promising prospect defensively behind the plate. But so was Mario Feliciano, who ultimately ended up on waivers and claimed by Detroit." Quero is an advanced defender behind the plate, Feliciano was always a bat first prospect who needed to figure out the actual catching part. Outside of being teenage Brewers catching prospects the two have very different profiles.
  5. sveumrules
    Benintendi 2020-22 1111 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR Yelich 2020-22 1393 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 4.5 WAR Benintendi just signed for 5/75 vs 6/162.5 remaining for Yelich, so that’s a difference of $87.5M. Throw in however much negative value Yelich’s full NTC carries as another obstacle to any deal and the -112.5 number on BTV feels like it’s in the right range to me. Figuring out Tatis is a fair bit trickier. Has 12/324 left on his deal with a full NTC and had injury issues before wrecking his motorcycle multiple times & getting busted for PEDs. But there is no doubt about the quality of his play when healthy with a 153 wRC+ ranking 5th since 2019 while his 13.6 WAR still ranks 26th despite missing 270 games during his career.
  6. sveumrules
    Ruiz has proven twice now to have divisive value. First we got robbed for only getting him and Gasser as the prospects back for Hader. Then we committed robbery to turn him into Contreras plus. BTV value seems to be in line with the consensus, but clearly the A’s, Brewers (& likely other organizations as well) value him more highly than the consensus. If he gets a full season PAs with the A’s we’ll have a lot better idea whose valuation was more accurate.
  7. sveumrules
    In terms of the immediate, he has a full NTC and only makes $7M in 2023, so would obviously have to approve any deal and would fit in the budget. Salaries climb to 11, 20, 20, 25, 25 through 2028 (Yelich’s last guaranteed year) before hitting $36M annually from 2029-36. If we can get him without giving up Chourio, there wouldn’t be a much higher upside play that could be made. Obviously the injury and PED stuff are huge mitigating factors, but he wouldn’t be theoretically available otherwise.
  8. sveumrules
    Thanks Brock for spearheading the charge that transitioned BF.net/com from a remnant of the “old internet” into something more contemporary and easily accessible to Brewer Fans. Here’s to continued growth in 2023, I’d imagine a World Series win would be alright for site traffic.
  9. sveumrules
    I can kinda understand Renfroe/Wong since they were just traded, but Hader was dealt in August. Please don’t say Burnes is April.
  10. sveumrules
    Nice bounce back win last night after the worst loss of the year at the Bulls. The 9-0 start was fun, but the team had continuity and a soft easy schedule. 14-12 since with a tougher schedule, dealing with injuries and trying to work in Khris and Jingles, who gave his first glimpse of being “back” last night. Middleton not looking himself so far and dealing with various injuries isn’t encouraging, but there’s still over half the season to get things in order there. Will be curious too see if Horst can pull a rabbit out of his hat at the deadline.
  11. sveumrules
    Was really surprised by Matt Moore’s season (& that he was even still pitching at all really). Looks like there might have been some luck involved though, especially his HR/FB rate with his splits at 50 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 98 xFIP-. That the drunken sailor Rangers didn’t resign him straight away gives me some pause too.
  12. sveumrules
    Suter is out of options and not good enough to be used in high leverage spots. If they weren’t willing to pick up their dependable 7th inning guy two years running at $3M (Box’s 2023 option), they were never paying that same $3M for a long reliever.
  13. sveumrules
    Even with sporadic playing time spread out over multiple seasons, two things can be accurately forecasted. His K% and defensive ineptitude. Barring a major adjustment or approach change he is going to strikeout at an alarming rate and never be relied upon to provide any defensive value. This is the primary reason he only has 1.5 seasons of PAs over four years. Well, that and he stunk from 2020-21. His results moving forward will depend entirely on batted ball luck just as they have in the past.... 2019: 348 PA | .402 BABIP | 24.1 HR/FB% | 139 wRC+ 2020-21: 443 PA | .271 BABIP | 18.9 HR/FB% | 71 wRC+ 2022: 266 PA | .355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB% | 115 wRC+
  14. sveumrules
    Winker had a 109 wRC+ last year. That is horrendous? I guess if you want to compare it to the 145 wRC+ he posted from 2020-21, sure.
  15. sveumrules
    One year samples are too small to draw meaningful conclusions from. Keston has been in MLB since 2019, here is how both players have performed vs RHP during that time… Hiura: 743 PA | 34.5 K% | 122 wRC+ Winker: 1250 PA | 17.0 K% | 133 wRC+ Seems pretty close (besides the PA and K%), but Most of Hiura’s damage vs RHP was done in 2019 with the juiced ball (265 PA | 30.2 K% | 159 wRC+ | .415 BABIP). Since then, from 2020-22 Keston has posted a 102 wRC+ and 36.8 K% with a .294 BABIP in 478 PA vs RHP. Over that same 2020-22 time frame Winker is at 137 wRC+ and 17.2 K% in 916 PA vs RHP.
  16. sveumrules
    Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G. "WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general. From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G. They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with. It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).
  17. sveumrules
    If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time. Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent. Seems pretty straight forward to me.
  18. sveumrules
    In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in? Since 2019 there are 226 batters with at least 300 PAs vs LHP, Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 221st. Career vs LHP Hiura is at 39.5 K% and 29.9 HardHit% compared to 34.5 K% and 41.4 HardHit% vs RHP. If Keston is indeed gone by OD that would be one more member of the Addition By Subtraction Club for the Brewers 2022 WOAHs vs LHP… Hiura (109 PAs | 75 wRC+), Omar (39 PAs | 75 wRC+), Wong (96 PAs | 37 wRC+) and Lorenzo (49 PAs | -17 wRC+) combined for about -17.5 wRAA vs LHP. Caratini (123 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -4.7 wRAA) could be less exposed vs LHP with the addition of Contreras as well.
  19. sveumrules
    If Hiura could field like Adames this might mean something. As it stands, Willy’s combination of bat and glove yielded 4.7 WAR last year. Hiura’s combination of bat and glove yielded 0.8 WAR. That’s an apples to pumpkin comparison.
  20. sveumrules
    There is so much turnover in the scouting/development department (the Brewers were literally among the worst in all of MLB before they started overhauling things once Mark A bought the team and that process continued further once Stearns & company got here) that I'm not sure how big of a developmental indictment some of these guys actually are. Another thing to consider is that developing catchers is literally the hardest thing to do, so every team's top prospect lists are likely similar rife with "failures". The most informative thing I think with regards to future expectations would be that despite whatever developmental shortcoming they may have had, since Stearns and company have gotten here Brewers catchers rank 3rd in WAR among all MLB clubs. Outside of the one year of Yaz, most of that WAR came from players that came up through the system (Lucroy/Maldonado) or were targeted by Stearns & company in trade (Pina/Narvaez). Between Contreras on the MLB side and Quero in the pipeline, I think the catching situation is probably the best its been organizationally since Lucroy/Maldonado were coming up.
  21. sveumrules
    Wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers were in on Myers around that price range. May have just been a case of picking the Reds because there is a clearer path to playing time.
  22. sveumrules
    Looks like Feliciano was claimed by the Tigers. Thanks for everything, Mario. We'll always have May 1st, 2021.
  23. sveumrules
    This is essentially what happened in 2021 when Burnes (6.2), Woodruff (6.3), Peralta (4.5), Houser (2.8) and Lauer (2.8) combined for 22.6 rWAR and the Brewers won 95 games. Throw a breakout year from Ashby in there instead of what we got from Brett Anderson and you’re getting pretty close to 100 wins. Those same five only combined for 13.1 rWAR last year though and the Brewers dropped to 86 wins.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, then perfect clueless Harold Reynolds at the end, “how crazy were the fans during that 18 inning game!” Winker, “I wasn’t there, I was having surgery on my knee and getting a second opinion on my neck.”
  25. sveumrules
    Had a thought that the Rockies are so out of touch with the rest of MLB, and they have the perfect stadium for Keston (or any hitter really) to have success that maybe we could dump him off on them, but they have Cron, Bryant and Blackmon already for the 1B/DH mix so not really a clear path to playing time there. I’d take any teenager in the DSL with a nice K/BB ratio at this point, and I’d guess the Brewers front office would too. That such a deal hasn’t happened yet likely means that GMs for rebuilding clubs are just waiting out that inevitable DFA. Checking the current 1B/DH projections at FanGraphs it looks like the A’s, Nationals, Tigers and Marlins are the non-divisional teams that could “use” Keston the most if there is a deal to be made somewhere out there.
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