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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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The Brewers managed Burnes workload in 2021. -
I went through the schedule a bit ago & with where the days off fall it looks like there’d be about 20 games that would require a sixth starter. Could line it up as a modified six man rotation hoping for something like (33 GS) Burnes & Woody (25 GS) Freddy, Lauer & Miley, which leaves 21 games for some combo of Houser/Ashby. Having Adrian/Aaron in the bullpen stretched out for multi inning work/spot starts would also add some nice depth to the relief corps.
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That 7.4 BB% really kills him, though I included HBP too & he gets drilled a lot (34 HBP ranks 19th since 2019) so that bumped his TTO% up a bit.
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Chris definitely gets a spot on the Brewers All Time Three True Outcomes Team... Ca: Grandal (44.5 TTO%) 1B: Carter (51.6 TTO%) 2B: Hiura (51.3 TTO%) 3B: Branyan (52.3 TTO%) SS: Hernandez (42.0 TTO%) LF: Thames (50.2 TTO%) CF: Gorman (42.5 TTO%) RF: Deer (48.5 TTO%) DH: Domingo (54.4 TTO%)
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If there were some kind of shenanigans going on how come only Yelich saw his production skyrocket?
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Yeah, that 510 PA with a 44 OPS+ In 1973 is about as low as it gets, but it was before my time. Schoop & Yuni are way more visceral for me.
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Ca: Estrada 1B: Stubbs 2B: Schoop 3B: Helms SS: Yuni LF: Leonard CF: JBJ RF: Hammonds DH: Newfield UT: Sogard SP: Soup pitched great! CL: Gagne RP: Machado
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Give us your best tips on watching a game at AmFam
sveumrules replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Never used any of them myself, but Paulie’s, Mo’s in Tosa or Brewski’s look like they would be the easiest options coming down on 41. -
No doubt deserves to be in the convo for the #5 spot with 2.8 rWAR | 1.4 fWAR | +2.12 WPA as a reliever. Just not sure I’d put him over Chad Fox (2.4 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.96 WPA) or Bill Castro (6.5 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR plus almost 20 years as the bullpen coach). Even someone like Boxberger had similar impact (2.4 rWAR | 1.5 fWAR | +2.45 WPA) in 75 fewer IP because all his appearances were high leverage.
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If JJ, Knebel and Devin are being saved for the RP list (plus no doubter Chuck Crim) there might even be a spot left for the Raptor.
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01 Hader (316 IP) 58 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 9.4 fWAR | +14.22 WPA 02 Plesac (455 IP) 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 10.3 rWAR | 8.4 fWAR | +1.52 WPA 03 Rollie (259 IP) 65 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 8.4 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | +8.24 WPA 04 Devin (155 IP) 48 ERA- | 56 FIP- | 5.0 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | +8.06 WPA 05 Jeffress (302 IP) 63 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 7.7 rWAR | 4.1 fWAR | +7.61 WPA HM Fetters (334 IP) 64 ERA- | 84 FIP- | 7.6 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR | +5.71 WPA Axford (263 IP | 86 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 2.0 rWAR | 2.4 fWAR | +3.10 WPA) and Sanders (321 IP | 67 ERA- | 86 FIP- | 5.7 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR) are a pretty clear notch below the Top 6 for me. I’d have Knebel (227 IP | 77 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 4.7 rWAR | 3.9 fWAR | +5.29 WPA) and Wickman (315 IP | 71 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 6.8 rWAR | 4.0 fWAR | +4.37 WPA) comfortably ahead of Axford/Sanders too.
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Give us your best tips on watching a game at AmFam
sveumrules replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Tailgating or getting food from whichever bar one catches a shuttle from are probably the best pre-game options. Haven’t been over there in awhile, but there used to be a couple restaurants by like 52nd & Blue Mound where you could street park for free, grab a bite and then walk in to AmFam through Mitchell Blvd Park. I don’t think the food or selection inside the stadium are bad, necessarily, it’s just that the quality is inconsistent and people love to complain about overpriced things in general. For me personally, I normally get in a lil early so stuff is fresher off the grill & lines aren’t crazy, and rotate through the staples. Burger, dog, brat. Buy a couple two tree tallbois of Champagne to support my local beer vendor. Personal fave are the cheese fries on loge level. They have a better sauce that isn’t just nacho squeeze. If you’re on club level they have a carving station with different sandwiches throughout the year. Also think Ian’s Pizza is on field level by the kids area now and they have Mac n Cheese plus the more standard slices. -
He kind of is a unicorn, though. Among 104 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2020 he is at 428 IP (9th) | 63 ERA- (1st) | 58 FIP- (1st) | 14.0 rWAR (1st) | 14.4 fWAR (1st) In the two seasons before signing his 9/324 mega deal Cole clocked 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR. If Burnes puts up another two seasons like his last couple few he’ll be hitting FA with a track record of dominance twice as long as Cole’s was before getting 9/324.
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He kind of is a unicorn, though. Among 104 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2020 he is at 428 IP (9th) | 63 ERA- (1st) | 58 FIP- (1st) | 14.0 rWAR (1st) | 14.4 fWAR (1st) In the two seasons before signing his 9/324 mega deal Cole clocked 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR. If Burnes puts up another two seasons like his last couple few he’ll be hitting FA with a track record of dominance twice as long as Cole’s was before getting 9/324.
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The only Brewers in history with a higher WAR than Sheets are Yount, Molitor, Braun, Lucroy, Cooper and Higuera. Unless someone is calling him a Top 5 Brewer he isn't really being overrated. Similar to Gallardo? Sheets is essentially Higuera across the board with a superior FIP... 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR Yovani is a pretty clear tier below for me... 1289 IP | 93 ERA- | 91 FIP- | 17.1 rWAR | 17.5 fWAR Gallardo's best year by rWAR was 3.8, Sheets had two seasons far superior to that at 7.0 and 5.4. Yo's best by fWAR was 3.7 with Sheets topping that three times (8.0, 4.8, 4.0) and matching it three more times (3.8, 3.8, 3.7).
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The only Brewers in history with a higher WAR than Sheets are Yount, Molitor, Braun, Lucroy, Cooper and Higuera. Unless someone is calling him a Top 5 Brewer he isn't really being overrated. Similar to Gallardo? Sheets is essentially Higuera across the board with a superior FIP... 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR Yovani is a pretty clear tier below for me... 1289 IP | 93 ERA- | 91 FIP- | 17.1 rWAR | 17.5 fWAR Gallardo's best year by rWAR was 3.8, Sheets had two seasons far superior to that at 7.0 and 5.4. Yo's best by fWAR was 3.7 with Sheets topping that three times (8.0, 4.8, 4.0) and matching it three more times (3.8, 3.8, 3.7).
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01 Sheets 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR 02 Higuera 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR 03 Burnes 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR 04 Woody 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR 05 Sabathia 130 IP | 39 ERA- | 56 FIP- | 5.9 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR
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01 Sheets 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR 02 Higuera 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR 03 Burnes 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR 04 Woody 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR 05 Sabathia 130 IP | 39 ERA- | 56 FIP- | 5.9 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR
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Yelich’s peak makes him an easy #1 for me. I’d have Sixto (125 OPS+ | 19.1 WAR) at #2 over Burnitz (123 OPS+ | 15.7 WAR) and Hart (116 OPS+ | 15.5 WAR) in the 3/4 spots. Deer (112 OPS+ | 6.9 WAR) is obviously a sentimental favorite for a lot of people (myself included) but I’d probably give a nod to the late Darryl Hamilton (100 OPS+ | 11.0 WAR) for that #5 spot.
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Always liked Thornburg as one of the rare Melvin era pitching prospects to make it through. Was kind of a bummer how things shook out for him after the deal, believe he hurt his arm doing the Red Sox offseason throwing program? Guess it was kind of a bummer how things ended up for Travis too, losing it (getting figured out?) after a couple years as a Top 10 third baseman. Also flipped Dubon for Pomeranz so the Thronburg trade ended up having pretty sizable impact on one surprising almost made it out of nowhere year in 2017, the DC/NLCS in 2018 and then the crazy September Wild Card run in 2019.
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BRef has the splits available, pretty even for Sal last year… Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS
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On the one hand comparing Frelick and Taylor is tricky. They’re two completely opposite hitters. One is (hopefully) high AVG/OBP with low ISO, the other is known low AVG/OBP with high ISO. But on the other hand, it really isn’t that tricky after all. We might have our aesthetic preferences, but ultimately production is production. The shape of that production is largely irrelevant to run scoring. Taylor has a 106 wRC+ for his career, if Frelick can beat that he’ll provide more value in the box. Last year there were 205 players with at least 400 PA. Among that sample there were 79 players with an ISO+ of 95 or below. Of those 79 players, only 20 had a wRC+ higher than Taylor’s 106 mark. Being an above average hitter with below average power is hard, Sal will have his work cut out for him. I’m excited to see if he’ll be one of the few that can pull it off.
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Yeah, it’s pretty close. Splits so far with the Brewers… LF: 1489 PA | 123 wRC+ | 8.2 WAR RF: 854 PA | 173 wRC+ | 10.6 WAR DH: 207 PA | 78 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR GET THIS MAN BACK IN RF WOAH SOLVDD
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Jenkins has the edge in raw OPS, but he also played in a more hitter friendly era and stadium. Once that is accounted for, Oglivie (124 OPS+) comes out a decent bit ahead of Jenkins (116 OPS+). I’d agree with @JimH5 on flipping Briggs/ Vaughn too. Their WAR totals with the Brewers are similar, but Briggs did it in like 300 fewer games / 1,500 less plate appearances on account of being all wheat & no chaff during his time in Milwaukee.
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The Brewers won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years. That’s quite a bit of actual winning regardless of payroll. Relative to the franchise’s history, yes, that is objectively the best they’ve done in 40 years. Sure, they didn’t win the World Series during Stearns tenure, only six teams did. That’s a pretty high bar to clear. If one’s threshold for an enjoyable Brewers season is “World Series”, they are setting themselves up for misery on purpose.
