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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Congrats to Ashby & the Brewers’ scouting/coaching/development staff. Bummer about Jace, that he’s been our best position player by BRef WAR so far pretty much says it all about the offense. Cot’s has Burnes listed as a free agent after 2024 though?
  2. sveumrules
    Jones upside is tantalizing, but seems like the Brewers have kind of shied away from the boom/bust guys in the first round since Ray. Hiura was always at least supposed to hit even if he never figured out defense and then Turang, Small, Mitchell and Frelick have been more high floor with a chance to pop if something clicks kind of guys.
  3. sveumrules
    Reading through the FanGraphs scouting reports of guys in our range & with full admission that I know absolutely nothing, some of my personal favorites &/or guys that sound like they kind of have Brewer-y profiles to me are #23 Tyler Locklear (1B), #29 Connor Hjerpe (P), #31 Parker Messick (P), #36 John Kasevich (3B), #41 Malcolm Moore (C/1B), #45 Dylan Beavers (RF), #48 Cade Doughty (3B), #66 Tanner Schobel (SS), #84 Ivan Melendez (1B), #87 Jake Madden (P), #95 Hayden Dunhurst (C), #98 Carter Young (SS), #106 Tyler Cleveland (P), #107 Spencer Giesting (P), #111 Jackson Cox (P), #117 Alan Roden (1B), #124 Andrew Taylor (P) and #125 Jurrangelo Cijntje (P).
  4. sveumrules
    Awesome that they are giving Low a shot to try the two way thing out. Hopefully he can keep the early success going. As frustrating as Mitchell's fits & starts are, I'm holding out hope for the long run that he maybe takes a similar path to DBacks CF prospect Corbin Carroll, who after being drafted 16th overall in 2019 only played in 49 games from 2019 to 2021 on account of injury/pandemic, but has gone on to post a 315/434/635 line this year to justify his draft slot/prospect hype.
  5. sveumrules
    FanGraphs posted their latest 2022 Draft Board with scouting reports for over 100 players… https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000
  6. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, Mass. Think that makes Ramon a more realistic option for sure then. Has mashed LHP for a 916 OPS this year & 828 OPS for his career.
  7. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, Mass. Think that makes Ramon a more realistic option for sure then. Has mashed LHP for a 916 OPS this year & 828 OPS for his career.
  8. sveumrules
    Problem is none of these guys are really CF. Even Reynolds is -11 DRS | -6.8 UZR out there since last year. Laureno would be postseason ineligible I assume. Benintendi could be interesting, but it’s a lot easier to hit singles at Kaufman than at AmFam & his LHP splits aren’t encouraging, 655 OPS this year & 708 career. I wouldn’t want to give up anybody in the top dozen or so prospects for that dice roll. Michael Taylor seems more Stearns-y out of the KC outfielders having breakout/fluke (you decide which) seasons. Legit CF defense at +7 DRS this year & +48 career. Not much, but a lil better vs LHP 686 this year & 728 career. Has an extra year of team control though so Royals might not be motivated to deal. Bell for 1B/DH would be the true get as he’s crushing everything this year with a 163 OPS+ overall and 871 OPS vs LHP, but he’s also the best rental bat so bidding could get steep. Mancini wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize & seems like the best mix of need vs acquisition cost to me out of the guys likely to be dealt.
  9. sveumrules
    Problem is none of these guys are really CF. Even Reynolds is -11 DRS | -6.8 UZR out there since last year. Laureno would be postseason ineligible I assume. Benintendi could be interesting, but it’s a lot easier to hit singles at Kaufman than at AmFam & his LHP splits aren’t encouraging, 655 OPS this year & 708 career. I wouldn’t want to give up anybody in the top dozen or so prospects for that dice roll. Michael Taylor seems more Stearns-y out of the KC outfielders having breakout/fluke (you decide which) seasons. Legit CF defense at +7 DRS this year & +48 career. Not much, but a lil better vs LHP 686 this year & 728 career. Has an extra year of team control though so Royals might not be motivated to deal. Bell for 1B/DH would be the true get as he’s crushing everything this year with a 163 OPS+ overall and 871 OPS vs LHP, but he’s also the best rental bat so bidding could get steep. Mancini wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize & seems like the best mix of need vs acquisition cost to me out of the guys likely to be dealt.
  10. sveumrules
    Hendry seems like a good lead off option given what we can discern about his approach from BB/K numbers. Among the Carolina teens… Hendry 45 BB / 48 K / 265 PAs Quero 24 BB / 45 K / 245 PAs Chourio 15 BB / 65 K / 219 PAs Hedbert 14 BB / 86 K / 256 PAs Garcia 11 BB / 96 K / 285 PAs Obviously age is a huge factor, but that 30% K rate for Jackson was one thing keeping him behind Wiemer on my rankings, for now anyway. Those BB/K rates for Hedbert & Garcia are downright scary though. Definitely need to make strides there if either is going to really tap into their potential. Good news is they all have plenty of time on their side.
  11. sveumrules
    Hendry seems like a good lead off option given what we can discern about his approach from BB/K numbers. Among the Carolina teens… Hendry 45 BB / 48 K / 265 PAs Quero 24 BB / 45 K / 245 PAs Chourio 15 BB / 65 K / 219 PAs Hedbert 14 BB / 86 K / 256 PAs Garcia 11 BB / 96 K / 285 PAs Obviously age is a huge factor, but that 30% K rate for Jackson was one thing keeping him behind Wiemer on my rankings, for now anyway. Those BB/K rates for Hedbert & Garcia are downright scary though. Definitely need to make strides there if either is going to really tap into their potential. Good news is they all have plenty of time on their side.
  12. sveumrules
    It had been the first part of June for years, but they switched it to coincide with the All Star Break last year I believe.
  13. sveumrules
    Sometimes I wonder how some of these Brewers fans who get all hot & bothered on the internet over a couple close losses to the Cubbies in the early going of what looks like a 5th consecutive playoff season managed to make it through 1993-2004 (when only the Tigers & two expansion teams won fewer games than the Brewers) without their heads exploding.
  14. sveumrules
    Sometimes I wonder how some of these Brewers fans who get all hot & bothered on the internet over a couple close losses to the Cubbies in the early going of what looks like a 5th consecutive playoff season managed to make it through 1993-2004 (when only the Tigers & two expansion teams won fewer games than the Brewers) without their heads exploding.
  15. sveumrules
    College pitching is the obvious choice given the current composition of the system, which means it will likely be another hit/run/defense college CF ? Of the guys mentioned though Hjerpe (big K numbers in a major conference) and DeLauter (guy that falls on draft day) seem to fit the recent Stearns & company 1st round MO.
  16. sveumrules
    College pitching is the obvious choice given the current composition of the system, which means it will likely be another hit/run/defense college CF ? Of the guys mentioned though Hjerpe (big K numbers in a major conference) and DeLauter (guy that falls on draft day) seem to fit the recent Stearns & company 1st round MO.
  17. sveumrules
    Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now. As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season.
  18. sveumrules
    Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now. As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season.
  19. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  20. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  21. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  22. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  23. sveumrules
    So when you say real upside you mean power then? Sounds like he has plenty of upside in the hit, field and run (& intangibles for whatever that is or isn’t worth) categories. Brewers scouting department doesn’t seem to think height is an eliminating factor. Frelick, Hedbert & Quero are listed 5’10”, Valerio is 5’ 7”, Urias & Wong 5’ 9” at the MLB level. Almost feels like maybe they think short players are an undervalued player type, especially with the looming automated strike zone where shorter players will have smaller defined zones.
  24. sveumrules
    Who are some players projected to be available around pick #27 that would excite you?
  25. sveumrules
    Small also slipped in the rankings because he didn’t have the high velocity to match his eye popping strikeout totals. Turned out he has elite spin & other qualities that have made his fastball so effective. I believe he has also added velocity since the Brewers drafted him. Brewers also seem to be believers in attack angle, extension & other secondary traits that can help pitchers translate their success at higher levels. Given his size, I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell checks some of those boxes as well.
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