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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Heard there are supposed to be some pretty good commercials for the Rihanna concert tonight. Who knows, a football game might even happen at some point too.
  2. sveumrules
    Any way one wants to slice it, being in the 8-15 range or thereabouts is pretty impressive given the team has been drafting towards the end of the first round for the last five years & the only real prospect of note acquired from trading MLB players is Gasser. Whole lotta development going on.
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, ended up 11th in wRC+, 10th in runs scored and 8th in position player WAR last year. Mariners, Guardians, Phillies, Padres and Rays all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers ended up 14th in rWAR. Only Toronto made the postseason with lower rWAR from their pitchers. The offense was much closer to playoff calibre than the pitching was in 2022. So in a macro sense, to improve on 2022 this year we’ll need the pitching to bounce back closer to 2021 levels and hope the offense can hold serve or maybe improve slightly. Outgoing players (Renfroe, Wong, Omar, Cain, Jace, Cutch) accounted for about 8 WAR so we’ll need Winker, Contreras, Anderson and the various rookies to make that up. Something else I found kind of interesting was that Cain (-12.4), Omar (-10.0), Jace (-1.5) and Cutch (-1.2) combined for -25.1 batting runs in their 1,360 PAs, essentially canceling out the good that Renfroe (+14.5) and Wong (+9.6) provided in their 1,019 PAs.
  4. sveumrules
    2027 is the farthest out the spreadsheets go on Cots. They list the Padres currently having six players (Machado, Xander, Yu, Musgrove, Tatis Jr and Robert Suarez) under contract for $124M combined. Here are some other big spender salary obligations in 2027… NYY (4/119): Judge, Cole, Stanton, Rodon TEX (3/95): Seager, Semien, deGrom ATL (5/90): Olson, Riley, Harris II, Murphy, Strider NYM (4/88): Lindor, Díaz, Nimmo, Sengai BOS (3/77): Story, Devers, Yoshida PHI (2/55): Harper, Turner LAD (2/50): Freeman, Mookie HOU (2/48): Alvarez, Javier Kind of interesting that the two best teams of the last six ten years or so haven’t really jumped into the fray as of yet. Maybe we’ve reached the point where the “new Moneyball” is just good old fashioned money.
  5. sveumrules
    Bucks played three mostly blah quarters last night, but a dominant 38-23 Q3 was enough to get them that 9th straight W, matching their season opening win streak. Back to back tonight against LAC going for #10. Haven’t had a B2B on the schedule since Khris came back so wouldn’t be surprised if he sits this one out. Really liking where the roster currently stands after the deadline with a couple open spots still for buy out guys… Jrue | Jevon | Green (TW) Grayson | Pat | Wes Khris | Jingles | MarJon Giannis | Jae | Thanasis Brook | Bobby | Sandro (TW) Pretty much just gonna come down to health from here.
  6. sveumrules
    Crowder hasn't played at all this year so he should be pretty fresh once he shakes the rust off.
  7. sveumrules
    That doesn’t mean they weren’t trying. The 2017 Giants won 67 games with the 5th highest OD payroll. In 2018 it was 73 wins on the 2nd highest OD payroll. In 2019 it was 77 wins on the 6th highest OD payroll. Looks to me like they were trying and failing. The Angels have had seven straight losing seasons with a Top 10 payroll, have they not been trying either? Were the Mets ($195M | 77 W) or Padres ($174M | 79 W) in 2021 or Red Sox ($206M | 78 W) in 2022 not trying because they finished under .500?
  8. sveumrules
    The Giants won an MLB best 107 games in 2021 and ran the 12th highest OD payroll for 2022 at $155M. They weren’t trying to compete?
  9. sveumrules
    Even with "only" two Super Bowl wins in the last 30 years, the Packers have still been the second best team in the NFL over that stretch. I would have loved to win another couple two tree, sure, but I'm guessing once Rodgers is gone we'll be crossing our fingers for one Super Bowl over the next few decades and odds are we'll be significantly worse than the second best team in the NFL over the next 30 years.
  10. sveumrules
    How many teams have won more than two SB in the last thirty years?
  11. sveumrules
    Could you please provide a link to where Mark A has “cried poverty”? The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years, that is more than illusory contention. If some sort of merit based contraction were to occur they wouldn’t even be under consideration.
  12. sveumrules
    Right, after making it through 2021 with a carefully managed workload, they took the kid gloves off for Corbin in 2022. Peralta has yet to make it through a full season, so he will continue to be on a carefully managed work load in an attempt to do so.
  13. sveumrules
    28 GS | 2594 pitches in 2021 = 92.6 pitches per start. Went over 100 in six total starts, three of which were in September. 33 GS | 3274 pitches in 2022 = 99.2 pitches per start. Was at 32 GS | 3234 pitches for 101 pitches per start before his last outing of 3 IP | 40 pitches to close the season. Threw 100 pitches or more 20 times.
  14. sveumrules
    The Brewers managed Burnes workload in 2021.
  15. sveumrules
    I went through the schedule a bit ago & with where the days off fall it looks like there’d be about 20 games that would require a sixth starter. Could line it up as a modified six man rotation hoping for something like (33 GS) Burnes & Woody (25 GS) Freddy, Lauer & Miley, which leaves 21 games for some combo of Houser/Ashby. Having Adrian/Aaron in the bullpen stretched out for multi inning work/spot starts would also add some nice depth to the relief corps.
  16. sveumrules
    Since 2020 Tyrone’s 3.6 WAR ranks 61st among OF ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Considering all those guys (minus Jurickson) are making $13M+ and they all (minus Conforto) needed hundreds more PAs to accrue their WAR, I’d say TT is an incredible value at less than $1M still. The Varsho comp is an interesting one, looking at 2020-22 they are pretty even in wRC+ (104 vs 101), TT slugs more (131 vs 123 ISO+), DV walks more (98 vs 70 BB%+), they strike out about the same (105 vs 106 K%+). Both hit the ball in the air a lot (120 vs 119 FB%+) with TT being more all fields at 106 Pull+ | 100 Mid+ | 89 Oppo+ vs DV being more of a dead pull hitter at 117 Pull+ | 94 Mid+ | 80 Oppo+. Main advantages for DV are being three years younger, being catcher capable, better on the bases (+8.3 vs +1.5 BSR) and being a notch above as an outfielder at +26 DRS | +26.4 UZR | +23 OAA compared to +14 DRS | +7.5 UZR | +11 OAA for TT.
  17. sveumrules
    That 7.4 BB% really kills him, though I included HBP too & he gets drilled a lot (34 HBP ranks 19th since 2019) so that bumped his TTO% up a bit.
  18. sveumrules
    Chris definitely gets a spot on the Brewers All Time Three True Outcomes Team... Ca: Grandal (44.5 TTO%) 1B: Carter (51.6 TTO%) 2B: Hiura (51.3 TTO%) 3B: Branyan (52.3 TTO%) SS: Hernandez (42.0 TTO%) LF: Thames (50.2 TTO%) CF: Gorman (42.5 TTO%) RF: Deer (48.5 TTO%) DH: Domingo (54.4 TTO%)
  19. sveumrules
    If there were some kind of shenanigans going on how come only Yelich saw his production skyrocket?
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah, that 510 PA with a 44 OPS+ In 1973 is about as low as it gets, but it was before my time. Schoop & Yuni are way more visceral for me.
  21. sveumrules
    Ca: Estrada 1B: Stubbs 2B: Schoop 3B: Helms SS: Yuni LF: Leonard CF: JBJ RF: Hammonds DH: Newfield UT: Sogard SP: Soup pitched great! CL: Gagne RP: Machado
  22. sveumrules
    Never used any of them myself, but Paulie’s, Mo’s in Tosa or Brewski’s look like they would be the easiest options coming down on 41.
  23. sveumrules
    No doubt deserves to be in the convo for the #5 spot with 2.8 rWAR | 1.4 fWAR | +2.12 WPA as a reliever. Just not sure I’d put him over Chad Fox (2.4 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.96 WPA) or Bill Castro (6.5 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR plus almost 20 years as the bullpen coach). Even someone like Boxberger had similar impact (2.4 rWAR | 1.5 fWAR | +2.45 WPA) in 75 fewer IP because all his appearances were high leverage.
  24. sveumrules
    If JJ, Knebel and Devin are being saved for the RP list (plus no doubter Chuck Crim) there might even be a spot left for the Raptor.
  25. sveumrules
    01 Hader (316 IP) 58 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 9.4 fWAR | +14.22 WPA 02 Plesac (455 IP) 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 10.3 rWAR | 8.4 fWAR | +1.52 WPA 03 Rollie (259 IP) 65 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 8.4 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | +8.24 WPA 04 Devin (155 IP) 48 ERA- | 56 FIP- | 5.0 rWAR | 4.9 fWAR | +8.06 WPA 05 Jeffress (302 IP) 63 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 7.7 rWAR | 4.1 fWAR | +7.61 WPA HM Fetters (334 IP) 64 ERA- | 84 FIP- | 7.6 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR | +5.71 WPA Axford (263 IP | 86 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 2.0 rWAR | 2.4 fWAR | +3.10 WPA) and Sanders (321 IP | 67 ERA- | 86 FIP- | 5.7 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR) are a pretty clear notch below the Top 6 for me. I’d have Knebel (227 IP | 77 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 4.7 rWAR | 3.9 fWAR | +5.29 WPA) and Wickman (315 IP | 71 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 6.8 rWAR | 4.0 fWAR | +4.37 WPA) comfortably ahead of Axford/Sanders too.
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