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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Splits for current bullpen look like this... Megill (37 IP) 54 ERA- | 64 FIP- | +1.14 WPA Uribe (51 IP) 52 ERA- | 79 FIP- | +0.90 WPA Koenig (43 IP) 91 ERA- | 90 FIP- | +0.83 WPA Hall (28 IP) 47 ERA- | 91 FIP- | +0.68 WPA Ashby (30 IP) 50 ERA- | 70 FIP- | +0.57 WPA Anderson (51 IP) 77 ERA- | 93 FIP- | +0.41 WPA Mears (40 IP) 71 ERA- | 69 FIP- | +0.11 WPA McGee (7 IP) 63 ERA- | 59 FIP- | +0.01 WPA Kind of hard to complain too much when you're eight of eight across the board on run prevention, peripherals and WPA. Obviously McGee is a tiny low leverage sample out of the shuttle spot, but the other seven regulars have been pretty solid all year. Mears WPA was higher a week ago, but -0.58 between his 07/22 and 07/25 outings knocked him down a bit. Overall the bullpen's +2.82 WPA is 11th in MLB this year, well behind the historic +24.87 WPA they posted from 2023-24, but a lot of that is a function of the rotation (+5.62 WPA | 4th) and lineup (+2.06 WPA | 6th) chipping in far more than they did from 2023-24 with a more middling +2.89 WPA (14th) from the rotation and -4.76 WPA (16th) from the lineup the last two years.
  2. sveumrules
    The Brewers 102 wRC+ vs LHP (10th in MLB) so far this year is pretty remarkable given Yelich (136 PA of 74 wRC+) and Turang (126 PA of 87 wRC+) are top two on the team in plate appearances versus southpaws. No matter, the Brewers 21 W - 10 L record vs LH starters is best in MLB, half game ahead of DET. Would imagine Jansen (90 PA of 129 wRC+) will be either DH-ing or catching today with William in the opposite spot. Collins (92 PA of 115 wRC+) and Sal (124 PA of 118 wRC+) have been good vs LHP this year and Blake (221 PA of 90 wRC+) has been fine for his career. My totally futile lineup guess,,, Sal RF Durbin 3B Contreras C Vaughn 1B Collins LF Jansen DH Perkins CF Monasterio 2B Joey SS
  3. sveumrules
    Going back to last year Ashby is one of 296 relievers with at least 40 IP, here are some of his ranks... 17 HR+ (3rd) | 50 FIP- (3rd) | 42 ERA- (5th) | 144 GB+ (7th) | 143 K+ (22nd) On a rate basis he's been elite, all he's missing is volume at only 47 IP. Even his 89 BB+ is better than average and ranks 83rd of those 296.
  4. sveumrules
    One big difference between Small and Henderson is age. Small was already 24 when he posted his shiny 1.98 ERA (but with a 3.44 FIP and 4.30 xFIP) over 77 IP at AA/AAA in 2021. Henderson was only 22 last year when he put up a 3.32 ERA | 3.66 FIP | 3.26 xFIP over 81 IP between AA/AAA last year. The other huge difference is command. Small had a 12.7% walk rate with the Brewers from 2021-23, Henderson has posted a 6.2% walk rate the last two years.
  5. sveumrules
    Cortes came over from the Yankees along with Caleb Durbin. I don’t think anyone was necessarily tricked as both teams were aware of the involved players strengths, weaknesses, and range of possible outcomes.
  6. sveumrules
    Setting themselves up for another year with the youngest pitchers in the ACL... 2021 Brewers Gold 19.2 Brewers Blue 19.9 Rangers 19.9 2022 Brewers Blue 19.8 Brewers Gold 19.9 Angels 20.3 2023 Mariners 20.6 Brewers 20.7 DBacks Red 20.7 2024 Brewers 19.9 Dodgers 20.2 Guardians 20.3 2025 Brewers 19.3 Angels 20.6 DBacks 20.7
  7. sveumrules
    Couple losses On The Island with DSL Blue losing 15-2 and DSL Gold falling 8-3 in ten innings. Some highlights perusing the boxes... Moises Polanco (two singles, stolen base) Frandy LaFond (single, two walks, stolen base) Juan Martinez (two doubles) Isais Chavez (single, two walks, stolen base) Francis Sosa (double) Cristian Montilla (two singles) Christopher Acosta (single, walk) Alexander Frias (single, walk) Yoneiker Lugo (single, walk) Albert Vargas (3 IP | 0 R | 3 H | 0 BB | 1 K)
  8. sveumrules
    Lawlar hasn't played in a month on account of a hamstring and only has 84 games | 376 PA going back to last year on account of various injuries. Might be hard to count on him being an everyday guy right out of the gate. Small samples of course, but some shades of Coby Mayo in the early going too... Mayo AAA career 852 PA of 128 wRC+ (24.9 K%) Lawlar AAA career 388 PA of 139 wRC+ (22.9 K%) Mayo MLB career 138 PA of 42 wRC+ (31.9 K%) Lawlar MLB career 56 PA of -23 wRC+ (35.7 K%)
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, that's why I said Reds version hopefully. From 2017-18 there were 26 players that got at least 500 PA at second base. Among those 26 players Scooter ranked 3rd with a 129 wRC+ and 5th with 6.0 WAR. In a macro sense its the same kind of profile, questionable second base defender whose bat is going to have to carry the profile.
  10. sveumrules
    Chad Patrick won the International League Triple Crown last year. He had a 62 ERA- and 85 FIP- over 136 IP. Carlos Rodriguez was much closer to average with a 96 ERA- | 100 FIP- over his 129 innings in 2024. I'd say one of those guys looked like he was ready for MLB to start the season and the other needed another year in AAA to figure some stuff out.
  11. sveumrules
    Everyone loves comparing current Brewers prospects to former Brewers players so I'll throw out Scooter Gennett (Reds version though hopefully) for an Adamczewski comp.
  12. sveumrules
    Player has to be on the team all year to get a QO so guys traded at the deadline are disqualified.
  13. sveumrules
    It would be pretty out of character for the Brewers to send out 24 years of team control for two rentals. If they were trading a package like that I'd hope it would be for someone with multiple years of team control remaining.
  14. sveumrules
    I'd be pretty surprised if the Brewers landed the premier power bat on the market for three spare pieces. For the Brewers to win that bidding war I'd guess they'll need to include one of their excess SP with long term control and MLB success under their belt already (Henderson, Patrick, Myers, Gasser) plus a second piece better than any of CRod, Black or Cortez.
  15. sveumrules
    The Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB since Arnold took over in 2023 at 246 W - 180 L after today. Mediocrity would be more like the Red Sox 213 W - 214 L since 2023, the Giants 212 W - 214 L since 2023, the Reds 211 W - 215 L since 2023, the Cardinals 206 W - 220 L since 2023, etc. Mediocre teams don't get the chance to lose playoff games.
  16. sveumrules
    Ashby's pitched twice (the 19th and 21st) since returning from the paternity list.
  17. sveumrules
    Too bad. Missed a good one.
  18. sveumrules
    Terrible six through nine hitters at 4 for 10 with four RBI, three runs scored, two doubles, an HBP (& a partridge in a pear tree).
  19. sveumrules
    The Pirates aren't trading Skenes. If they did it wouldn't be in division for three mid rotation starters, a back end starter, and two bat only prospects that haven't hit in awhile. Any proposal that doesn't start with both Misio and Made just isn't a serious proposal. Same goes for Jose Ramirez.
  20. sveumrules
    Jesus MadeLuis PenaLogan HendersonCooper PrattJeferson QueroRobert GasserMarco DingesLuke AdamsAndrew FischerBraylon PayneColeman CrowTyson HardinBryce MeccageEthan DorchiesCraig YohoJosh KnothBishop LetsonJD ThompsonFrank CaironeJosh Adamczewski 21 to 25: Jadher, Wichro, Lara, Burke, Handelfry.
  21. sveumrules
    As long as he isn't talking about this Quintana...
  22. sveumrules
    All time age difference record...
  23. sveumrules
    Obviously only four games, but cool to see Jesus come back strong (6 for 13 with two doubles & three walks) after his week long break around the Futures Game.
  24. sveumrules
    Ortiz was originally drafted as a glove first player, the foundation of his profile was always that he had the glove for SS. Once he got a regular MLB chance shortstop was already taken, so he played third base where both DRS and FRV saw him as solidly above average to the tune of +8 runs. It's somewhat rare for the defensive metrics to be in lock step on their evaluation of an infielder though as we've seen this year with DRS pegging Ortiz for -6 runs while FRV says he has been +4 runs afield. That's a swing of a whole win in less than a full season, pretty extreme stuff. In the more frequent cases where the metrics arrive at different conclusions, I like to consider the player's history along with my own amateur eye test assessment. For Ortiz it seems like the -6 DRS from SS this year is the obvious outlier, so I tend to think that FRV is doing a better job of capturing his defensive value as a SS to this point.
  25. sveumrules
    Last two years... Otto 95 wRC+ | +3.4 BsR | +21.0 DEF | 4.7 WAR Ortiz 90 wRC+ | +0.8 BsR | +18.1 DEF | 3.8 WAR So Otto is pretty much Ortiz just with a slightly higher floor? Not sure that's worth dishing out Pratt plus for. Especially when the plus would probably have to be considerably better than the proposed Black, C-Rod, Hudson sweeteners. Also not sure how motivated the Marlins would be to deal Lopez in the first place. They've shown some signs of life over the last couple months going 31 W - 27 L. Might not seem like much, but if the Marlins can hold on for a winning record in July after posting a winning record in June it will be their first time with back to back winning months since they ran off three winning months in a row in 2017 when they still had Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna & Realmuto.
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