sveumrules

Interesting. Would imagine FG is the only outlet with Ashby ranked above Mitchell/Turang. If his secondaries are as advanced as the scouting report implies we could be seeing him in Milwaukee sometime this summer. “While he can struggle with his command and his fastball is more good than great, Ashby has one of the better sliders around and knows how to use it. Ashby showed up at instructs sitting 94-97 (I saw him twice), with two routinely plus breaking balls, and flashed a firm, diving changeup on occasion. It’s fair to wonder whether the context of the look impacted how hard Ashby was throwing (it’s not as if he’d been throwing every fifth day for several months, though it was toward the end of instructs) and he isn’t exactly a precise strike-thrower, but his fastball velocity has been trending up for a few consecutive years now, and all three of his secondary pitches have bat-missing action. I think he’ll either end up in a strikeout-heavy, five-and-dive role or become a vicious multi-inning reliever. (Fall Instructional League)”

Urias probably would have been the opening day SS last year if it wasn't for breaking his hamate/getting Covid. Assuming he's healthy this spring I'd imagine he gets every opportunity to win the job. We know the front office is analytically driven & ZiPS projects Luis (90 OPS+, 2.1 WAR) better than Orlando (80 OPS+, 1.0 WAR) for 2021. I'd guess the Brewers own internal projection system spit out similar results.

Based on the 2020 results, it looks like the Blue Jays didn't trust & believe in Travis enough either.

Fisher's 2020 consisted of 39 PAs & 90 innings in the field, pretty miniscule samples. For his career Derek has posted a +2 DRS/+0.7 UZR in 1,023 innings in the field.

Yeah, but would you go with mtrebs field or mtrebs park? Maybe go old school, the mtrebs grounds, has a pretty nice ring to it.

Always preferred my burgers in a wrapper, much less environmental impact than a box, but whatever.

For whatever it is or isn't worth, BPro projects the Brewers to score the 13th most runs in 2021 even without Turner... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ Between that and Stearns & company's track record assembling cromulent offenses in the four full seasons prior to the pandemic altered 2020, I'd imagine they'll end up closer to average than the worst in the league for 2021... 2016: 99 wRC+ (19th) 2017: 100 wRC+ (15th) 2018: 105 wRC+ (11th) 2019: 103 wRC+ (12th) 2020: 89 wRC+ (25th) Even with the poor showing in an abbreviated 2020 they still weren't really among the worst in the league with a healthy gap between their 89 wRC+ & the 73/76/76 marks posted by PIT, TEX & COL. If the pitching holds up their end of the bargain we could be in store for a fifth consecutive summer of competing for a postseason appearance.

It's not like Joe Ingles is just some guy. He's made the most threes in Jazz history by shooting 40.8% on 2,101 career attempts. Sometimes guys like that will go 6 for 7 from deep in a half.

Looking like Arrieta going back to the Cubs. MLBTR saying one year around 6.5/7 million. Phillies gave him 3 years & 75 million (about 62 million Covid Adjusted) for 352 IP of 99 ERA+ which comes out to 4.4 WAR by BRef's calculations. ZiPS projects him for 114 IP at 94 ERA+ (1.1 WAR) for 2021.

Moose's first All Star season was 2015, here's how he & Kolten stack up over that time per BRef... Moose | 2707 PA | 262/326/490 (114 OPS+) | -13 BSR | -11 FLD | 12.1 WAR Kolten | 2549 PA | 266/343/389 (98 OPS+) | +19 BSR | +46 FLD | 15.1 WAR FanGraphs uses UZR for their defensive input, so it's a little closer there with Kolten (99 wRC+ / +18.3 BSR / +28.0 FLD / 13.8 WAR) still edging Moose (113 wRC+ / -17.2 BSR / +1.2 FLD / 12.5 WAR). It's pretty much Moneyball 101, dingerz get paid, but the guy who walks & runs the bases & fields can provide more overall value for a lower cost.

Which leads me to another sub-question. Do agents lose money when their clients get suspended for PEDs? Don't know for sure, but I would guess agents get their percentage taken out of every paycheck, so they probably don't get paid for years opted out of & their pay was likely also cut during the shortened season in proportion with their clients' salaries. Likewise with PEDs I would imagine, though maybe suspended players still pay their agents out of pocket during that time as kind of a retainer or good faith gesture?

FanGraphs projected standings/playoff odds have gone live... https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Here's how the NL stacks up ranked by largest divergence between FG & BPro... TEAM | FG Wins | BP Wins (diff) MIL | 81.4 | 88.8 (7.4) ATL | 89.2 | 82.4 (6.8) COL | 66.9 | 60.3 (6.6) CHI | 79.0 | 85.1 (6.1) ARI | 73.4 | 79.3 (5.9) LAD | 97.5 | 102.9 (5.4) PIT | 65.6 | 61.1 (4.5) PHI | 78.8 | 83.0 (4.2) NYM | 91.7 | 95.5 (3.8) WAS | 82.4 | 85.0 (2.6) SFG | 77.8 | 75.3 (2.5) MIA | 70.4 | 68.1 (2.3) STL | 81.5 | 80.6 (0.9) CIN | 78.2 | 79.1 (0.9) SDP | 95.3 | 95.6 (0.3)

"This team as it sits now, can not compete with NY and BOS, it is just silliness to think otherwise. Financially, we simply have no shot." -DevilRaysFan.net On February 10th 2018 did you think the Brewers could compete with the Cubs or Dodgers? I'm guessing you didn't but that didn't stop them from beating the Cubs for the division & going to G7 of the NLCS with LA.

Yeah, on the one hand our pitching staff is already the clear strength of the team. They finished 11th by ERA- (93), 5th by FIP- (86) & tied for 1st in xFIP- (84) during 2020. BPro projects them for the 4th best run prevention in 2021. FanGraphs depth charts has the starters projected 9th & relievers 8th for 2021. On the other hand, our offense will probably need all the help they can get to be a league average unit. If this sounds somewhat familiar at all it might be because from 2017-20 the Brewers have combined above average run prevention (94 ERA-, 9th) & defense (+111 DRS, 7th) with average-ish offense (101 wRC+, 14th) en route to winning the 10th most games in MLB.

Crazy to think 2021 will be the 30th season of the Favre/Rodgers era. Three whole decades. I was curious how the Packers stacked up against the rest of the NFL over the last 29 years so I awarded teams one point for every regular season win, two points for making the playoffs, four points for losing a conference championship game, eight points for losing a superb owl and twenty five points for winning the whole dang enchilada & this is how it all added up... FAVRE YEARS (1992-2007) 01 NEP (255) 152 W | 10 PO | 1 CCL | 2 SBL | 3 SBW 02 DAL (236) 145 W | 10 PO | 1 CCL | 3 SBW 03 DEN (218) 154 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 2 SBW 04 PIT (218) 159 W | 11 PO | 4 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 05 GBP (216) 161 W | 11 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 06 IND (194) 147 W | 10 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBW 07 SF4 (189) 142 W | 9 PO | 3 CCL | 1 SBW 08 PHI (173) 143 W | 9 PO | 3 CCL | 1 SBL 09 NYG (173) 130 W | 7 PO | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 10 MIN (165) 143 W | 9 PO | 2 CCL 11 TBB (164) 125 W | 7 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBW 12 KCC (161) 145 W | 7 PO | 1 CCL 13 RAM (157) 118 W | 5 PO | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 14 BUF (154) 130 W | 6 PO | 2 SBL 15 MIA (154) 136 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL 16 SDC (148) 128 W | 6 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 17 SEA (145) 127 W | 6 PO | 1 SBL 18 CHI (130) 116 W | 4 PO | 1 SBL 19 JAX (129) 113 W | 6 PO | 2 CCL 20 RAI (129) 113 W | 4 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 21 ATL (128) 112 W | 4 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 22 NYJ (125) 113 W | 5 PO | 1 CCL 23 NOS (122) 114 W | 3 PO | 1 CCL 24 WAS (121) 113 W | 4 PO 25 BAL (120) 89 W | 4 PO | 1 SBW 26 TEN (117) 99 W | 5 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 27 CAR (113) 97 W | 3 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBL 28 DET (111) 101 W | 5 PO 29 CIN (96) 94 W | 1 PO 30 ARI (94) 92 W | 1 PO 31 CLE (84) 80 W | 2 PO 32 HOU (75) 71 W | 2 PO RODGERS YEARS (2008-2020) 01 NEP (262) 153 W | 11 PO | 3 CCL | 2 SBL | 3 SBW 02 GBP (183) 132 W | 10 PO | 4 CCL | 1 SBW 03 PIT (182) 135 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 04 BAL (174) 129 W | 9 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBW 05 NOS (174) 133 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBW 06 SEA (168) 121 W | 9 PO | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 07 KCC (163) 116 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 08 PHI (150) 111 W | 7 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBW 09 DEN (149) 110 W | 5 PO | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 10 IND (143) 119 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 11 ATL (133) 113 W | 6 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 12 MIN (126) 110 W | 6 PO | 2 CCL 13 NYG (125) 96 W | 3 PO | 1 SBW 14 SF4 (125) 101 W | 4 PO | 2 CCL | 2 SBL 15 DAL (120) 112 W | 4 PO 16 CAR (119) 103 W | 5 PO | 1 SBL 17 ARI (118) 102 W | 4 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 18 HOU (115) 103 W | 6 PO 19 SDC (113) 105 W | 4 PO 20 TEN (111) 101 W | 4 PO | 1 CCL 21 CIN (109) 97 W | 6 PO 22 CHI (108) 100 W | 3 PO | 1 CCL 23 TBB (107) 82 | 1 PO | 1 SBW 24 NYJ (106) 98 W | 2 PO | 2 CCL 25 BUF (105) 97 W | 3 PO | 1 CCL 26 MIA (102) 98 W | 2 PO 27 RAM (98) 86 W | 3 PO | 1 SBL 28 WAS (87) 81 W | 3 PO 29 DET (85) 79 W | 3 PO 30 RAI (83) 81 W | 1 PO 31 JAX (68) 64 W | 1 PO | 1 CCL 32 CLE (64) 62 W | 1 PO (BRETT & AARON 2 GETHA 4 EVA 1992-2020) 01 NEP (517) 306 W | 21 PO | 4 CCL | 4 SBL | 6 SBW 02 PIT (400) 294 W | 19 PO | 5 CCL | 2 SBL | 2 SBW 03 GBP (399) 293 W | 21 PO | 6 CCL | 1 SBL | 2 SBW 04 DEN (367) 264 W | 13 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL | 3 SBW 05 DAL (356) 257 W | 14 PO | 1 CCL | 3 SBW 06 IND (337) 266 W | 18 PO | 3 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 08 KCC (324) 261 W | 15 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 07 PHI (323) 254 W | 16 PO | 4 CCL | 1 SBL | 1 SBW 09 SF4 (314) 243 W | 13 PO | 5 CCL | 2 SBL | 1 SBW 10 SEA (313) 248 W | 15 PO | 2 SBL | 1 SBW 11 NYG (298) 226 W | 10 PO | 1 SBL | 2 SBW 12 NOS (296) 247 W | 11 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBW 13 BAL (294) 218 W | 13 PO | 2 CCL | 2 SBW 14 MIN (291) 253 W | 15 PO | 4 CCL 15 TBB (271) 207 W | 8 PO | 1 CCL | 2 SBW 16 ATL (261) 225 W | 10 PO | 2 CCL | 2 SBL 17 SDC (261) 233 W | 10 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 18 BUF (259) 227 W | 9 PO | 1 CCL | 2 SBL 19 MIA (256) 234 W | 10 PO | 1 CCL 20 RAM (255) 204 W | 8 PO | 2 SBL | 1 SBW 21 CHI (238) 216 W | 7 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 22 CAR (232) 200 W | 8 PO | 2 CCL | 2 SBL 23 NYJ (231) 211 W | 7 PO | 3 CCL 24 TEN (228) 200 W | 9 PO | 2 CCL | 1 SBL 25 ARI (212) 194 W | 5 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 26 RAI (212) 194 W | 5 PO | 1 CCL | 1 SBL 27 WAS (208) 194 W | 7 PO 28 CIN (205) 191 W | 7 PO 29 JAX (197) 177 W | 7 PO | 3 CCL 30 DET (196) 180 W | 8 PO 31 HOU (190) 174 W | 8 PO 32 CLE (148) 142 W | 3 PO

With Brad Nelson (-81 wRC+ in 2009) popping up in the other thread, it got me wondering just how many other players couldn't even muster the 6 wRC+ that Freitas posted in 2019. Among Brewers only with at least 10 PA in a season there have been 53 non-pitchers to post a lower wRC+ than Freitas including such memorable names as Laynce Nix, Irving Falu, Corey Patterson, Yadiel Rivera, Chris Barnwell, Luis Jimenez, Blake Lalli, Juan Centeno, Enrique Cruz, Pete Zoccolillo, Erick Almonte, Nevin Ashley, Brooks Conrad (& those are just the Melvin years!!) If you extend it out to all of MLB since the Brewers first season in 1970 there have been 1,383 batter seasons with at least 10 PA & a wRC+ lower than 6. Pretty much every team, every year, has a player as bad or worse than Freitas on their 40 man roster.

Or maybe they’re truly concerned their “best young hitter” has struck out in nearly 40% of his at bats. If he can’t get it under control, he won’t stay a starter Hiura has 192 Ks in 594 PAs, a 32.3 K%. If he has struck out nearly 40% of the time he has also struck out nearly 25% of the time.

No. Davis strikes out way less than Hiura Peak Khris (2015-18) had a 133 K%+, Hiura is at a 144 K%+ for his career, but he's also done so during his age 22/23 seasons. Davis was still in A/A+/AA at the same age & didn't play his first full season until age 26, so it's not quite a one to one comparison. Peak Khris also walked more than Keston has (113 vs 77 BB%+), though Hiura has made up for it by posting a higher BABIP+ (118 vs 92) leading to better AVG+ (105 to 97) & OBP+ (103 to 100) marks. Where peak Khris really had the edge was in raw power with a 170 ISO+ vs only 131 for Keston, which accounts for his overall edge in wRC+ at 128 to 118. All told peak Khris posted 79.5 batting runs over those four seasons, 25th best in MLB. I'd like to think Keston can top that given his edge in terms of age & pedigree, but if he ends up around there over the next four years I'd take that outcome. Of course, there's always the possibility Keston can't reign in the Ks & he falls short of that level of production by anywhere from slightly to considerably. Hopefully Keston can get 600+ plate appearances in 2021 to state his case.

Luckily Stearns & company have been able to extract more value (118 wRC+, 9th & 9.5 WAR, 12th among 1B 2016-20) out of the post-Prince morass than Melvin & associates did (90 wRC+, 29th & -1.8 WAR, 29th among 1B 2012-15).

Reds apparently in discussions with Villar. Moose at 2B & Jonathan at SS would definitely be some kind of defense up the middle.

Can't believe it took 25 posts to get to Lou Palsmo.

Not sure how those two fit the thread since no one was really clamoring for them to be called up (Brantley was in AA with an MLB outfield of Braun/Cameron/Hart when he got dealt & Cain was stuck behind Braun/Gomez/Hart when he was dealt) & they both have had extended MLB success. We barely had enough pitching to make the playoffs with Sabathia & Greinke in 2008 & 2011, if we don't make those two deals, 2018 is probably breaking a 36 year playoff drought. I'd say more of a DOH from the 2006 list would be how the Brewers development staff at the time couldn't get anything out of Jose Capellan (#3), Zach Jackson (#5), Dana Eveland (#7), Mark Rogers (#8), Will Inman (#10), Ben Hendrickson (#12) or Manny Parra (#14). If they could have, maybe we wouldn't have had to deal Brantley/Cain in the first place.

Dodgers essentially get Bauer for 2/85, but the luxury tax hit will only be 34 million a year. Sneaky. Barring injury or underperformance Trevor is almost guaranteed to opt after year two with the 3rd year salary only 17 million.

Yeah, those 16 pinch hit plate appearances really torpedoed the season in 2019.

Since 2018, Bauer is 6th in IP (433), 10th in K%+ (133), 12th in HR9+ (74), 10th in ERA- (69) & 12th in FIP- (76). Add it all up & he is 7th in runs allowed based WAR (12.6) & 6th in FIP based WAR (11.6) the last three seasons. Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom & Cole are the only pitchers over that time that beat him in both varieties. ZiPS projects him as the 6th best starter for 2021 at 4.4 WAR with the only the three active guys above plus Bieber & Giolito projected higher. No way he comes close to Cole's 9/324, but I'd guess he ends up picking between like a 7/225 deal if he wants the long term security or like a 3/120 deal if he wants to set the AAV record.