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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Say Hader's Arby's numbers are 6, 9 & 12 million the next three years. That comes out to 27 million. Even if Hader puts up 2 WAR per season (no easy feat for a reliever), that would be 6 WAR. At say, 8 million per WAR that's about 48 million in value, or 21 million in surplus value. Now adjusting any of the Arby figures, Hader's projection or the dollar per WAR changes the math around somewhat, so I don't think 15.5 is too far off. Recent history has shown that teams are more likely to "overpay" for relievers at the deadline than in the offseason & that, combined with the paucity of data (especially as it relates to prospects) from the pandemic altered season, is why my gut tells me no Hader deal comes together this winter.
  2. sveumrules
    Cots currently has us at 83 million for 2021 with Arby's estimates. Opening Day 2020 was 97 million pre-pandemic. Not offering roast beef sammys to Knebel (5.0), Arcia (3.0), Claudio (2.25), Manny (2.0), Gamel (1.75), Vogelbach (1.0) & Peterson (0.8) nets about 12 million in savings, bringing it down to 71 million. I don't think it'll happen, but a Hader deal could free up another 5 million or so. How much money there will be for free agency all depends on just how much the payroll is getting cut, arbitration decisions, any possible trades & how the market plays out. I'd guess payroll comes in around 80-85 million which would mean something like 15 million for free agency depending on how all the other moving pieces fall into place.
  3. sveumrules
    I feel like there has to be more to that story. Just really strange. Also, I hope Tepera has an “MVP votes” performance bonus in his contract so it will at least cost the Cubs a few extra dollars. I thought maybe he had like 4 or 5 dominant outings against the Cardinals this year since the writer was from STL so I looked up his splits, 2 games, 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 7.71 ERA...nope.
  4. sveumrules
    Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post Dispatch thought Ryan Tepera was the 10th most valuable player in the National League this year.
  5. sveumrules
    60 games is about 37% of a regular 162 game season. When you consider extenuating circumstances like the pandemic, no fans in the stands, the season starting then stopping then starting back up again, the results deserve even more skepticism. The sample is objectively neither HUGE nor GIANT, so I guess I don't see how the results can be accurately classified as such.
  6. sveumrules
    But would he have been a huge help this year? I've read here that our hitting coach was terrible at his job & that's why our hitters drastically underperformed across the board. Or is Grisham so good that he would have transcended Haines's apparently lacking instruction? Simple fact is, at this point in time, 60 games have happened, so the Padres have won less than 10% of the total window of team control covered by the trade. The only thing HUGE & GIANT is the remaining five years that will play a much larger role in determining who actually won the trade. The Padres are currently up about 4 wins on the deal, if that is a fleecing what would you call the 20 wins we are up on the Yelich trade so far?
  7. sveumrules
    Some great visualizations in this FanGraphs article to really demonstrate just how special Devin's 2020 was... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/devin-williams-was-preposterous/
  8. sveumrules
    I don't blame anyone for the Wild Card loss in 2019. Hader had rough stretch from July 30 to August 17th where he gave up runs in six of seven appearances, but figured it out & finished the season with clean outings in 14 of 16 appearances totalling 19 IP with 32 K vs only 3 BB. For the season as a whole he finished 3rd in FIP based WAR, 6th in runs allowed based WAR, 7th in Win Probability Added. His K% of 47.8 was six whole percentage points higher than the next best reliever in MLB, his WHIP of 0.81 the lowest, his .155 average against 2nd lowest in MLB. Even after K - HBP - K - 1B - BB, there was no better option to face Soto in that spot. One of the best relievers in the game gave up a single to one of the best hitters in the game. Baseball happens. As for Grisham, if he doesn't draw a leadoff walk before Yasmani's bomb that's one less run to begin with & the ball taking a weird skid past him in the outfield (Baseball happening again) is rendered even more irrelevent. Baseball happened twice, in very quick succession, both breaking against the Brewers, I don't see why blame must be assigned for the whims of the Baseball Gods... https://southerncrossreview.org/12/diamond.htm
  9. sveumrules
    Not bad for the #16 prospect on the BF.net pre-season Top 25. If we've got 15 guys better than Devin we should be in pretty good shape for some time to come.
  10. sveumrules
    Was just scrolling thru trying to find that out & it looks like Scott Williamson for the 1999 Reds. His 19 saves were 2nd on the team to Danny Graves' 27, but he threw 93 IP in 62 games. Graves had 111 IP in 75 games. They also had Scott Sullivan with 73 games & 113 IP. Those three combined for 6.5 WAR. Pretty crazy how much bullpen usage has changed in the last 20 years.
  11. sveumrules
    The Titans are 6th in rushing offense & Henry personally has the 2nd most yards in the NFL, they have been running over everybody. Luckily, they are the only remaining team we face with a good rushing offense. The other teams we have yet to play rank 13th (PHI), 18th (CAR), 23rd (IND), 25th (DET), 27th (JAX) & 32nd (CHI) in rushing yards per game currently.
  12. sveumrules
    Longo has 2/45 left on his deal & has put up a 94 wRC+ with 3.3 WAR over the last three seasons. Lorenzo has 2/35 left on his deal & has put up a 104 wRC+ with 7.4 WAR over the last three seasons. Based on contract/production it looks like the Giants would likely have to send some cash or prospect capital along with Longo.
  13. sveumrules
    The Padres definitely won the first sixty games of the trade. Davies is a free agent after 2021, Lauer 2024 & Grisham/Urias 2025 so it should be an interesting half decade.
  14. sveumrules
    Here are Josh Bell's career OPS splits by half season... 2016 2nd Half: 729 2017 1st Half: 793 2017 2nd Half: 808 2018 1st Half: 738 2018 2nd Half: 823 2019 1st Half: 1042 2019 2nd Half: 780 2020 1st Half: (cancelled) 2020 2nd Half: 669 He's had essentially one good half in four seasons, I wouldn't give up anything of value for him. Maybe something like the Narvaez deal from last year would be as high as I'd be willing to go.
  15. sveumrules
    I'm more or less of the mind that no one gets billions, or even hundreds of millions dollars, by behaving on the up & up. Ultimately that wealth was amassed at the expense of countless individuals one way or another. Sure, there are degrees to everything, & maybe Cohen is depraved even by billionaire standards, but being a sports fan is essentially like cheering for competing factions of an organized crime syndicate, & I guess I'm okay with that.
  16. sveumrules
    Half way through the season, the Packers are surrendering 111 rushing yards per game, 12th fewest. NFL average is 119 yards per game. Yards per attempt against the Packers is 4.5 compared to a league average of 4.4 yards per attempt. The seven teams remaining on the schedule rank 4th (TEN), 15th (PHI), 18th (CAR), 25th (IND), 29th (DET), 30th (JAX) & 31st (CHI) in rushing yards per game currently.
  17. sveumrules
    BRef keeps track of a lot of baserunning minutiae, though only so much can be gleaned from the raw totals without additional context... https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-baserunning-batting.shtml In the shortened season, we made the fewest outs on the bases (7), with only three coming at home plate, 6th fewest. Sound pretty good, right? Stealing bases, our 58% SB success rate was the worst in MLB. We took an extra base 35% of the time, 5th lowest. We grounded into 53 double plays, thee most. Add it all up & Fangraphs had us dead last on the bases at -17.6 runs, next worst was the Mets at -11.1, that's a pretty massive gap for 60 games. BRef had it a little closer at -13 to -12, but 3rd worst was up at -6 so again a sizable gap. Would not be surprised at all if our acquisitions this offseason are geared towards guys who can contribute positive value on the bases.
  18. sveumrules
    Some might argue it is impossible to absolutely KNOW anything, especially when it comes to something as subjective as judging the performance of a third base or hitting coach. Sure, Sedar has made some terrible sends over the years. Has he made a lot? I probably get to see about 130 Brewers games in a regular season, which means there are 2,300 other MLB games I don't get to see.
  19. sveumrules
    Yup, big difference between walking away from 5.5 million when there were a lot more unknowns & a Cardinals breakout in your backyard versus walking away from 16 million. I'd peg Cain for a wRC+ in the 90s & something like 15 defensive runs saved in 2021 which comes out to around 3 WAR...or, perfectly cromulent production for his salary.
  20. sveumrules
    I'm pretty confident you just made all of that up. Haha. I had to type that whole thing out precisely because of how ridiculous it all is. But hey, you never know, I feel like I remember the Indians picking up a pitcher out of the California Penal League some years ago that pitched them right into the playoffs.
  21. sveumrules
    Sure, Yelich is not Trout & their contracts reflect that, Trout has 10/354 left compared to only 9/202 for Yelich. In 2022, when Yelich's deal kicks in, his 26 million salary is currently tied for 16th in MLB. With two more offseasons to go until then, Yelich likely won't even be a top 20 paid player in MLB at that point.
  22. sveumrules
    Erceg hit 180/245/202 in 98 PAs with the Sugar Land Lightning Sloths of the Constellation Energy League in 2020.
  23. sveumrules
    Something else interesting I came across, Brewers ranks since 2017 (wRC+ is position players only)... 2017 | wRC+ 100 (15th) | Wins 86 (10th) 2018 | wRC+ 104 (12th) | Wins 96 (5th) 2019 | wRC+ 102 (12th) | Wins 89 (11th) 2020 | wRC+ 89 (25th) | Wins 29 (17th) Total | wRC+ 101 (13th) | Wins 300 (10th) Every year of the competitive Stearns era & cumulatively, our team wins have outpaced our position player wRC+ (& we know its not because of clutch hitting) so it must have something to do with pitching &/or defense... 2017 | FIP- 97 (12th) | ERA- 91 (8th) | DRS +12 (15th) 2018 | FIP- 98 (11th) | ERA- 92 (10th) | DRS +107 (2nd) 2019 | FIP- 100 (17th) | ERA- 99 (15th) | DRS +40 (11th) 2020 | FIP- 85 (3rd) | ERA- 92 (11th) | DRS -14 (23rd) Total | FIP- 97 (10th) | ERA- 94 (9th) | DRS +110 (9th) I think one thing it seems like people are still wrapping their heads around, even four years in, is that the Brewers win more because of pitching (specifically the bullpen, FIP- 92 (7th) ERA- 91 (10th) from 2017-20) & defense than because of hitting.
  24. sveumrules
    Sure, the Brewers 89 wRC+ was 25th in MLB for the pandemic altered 2020, but it's hard for me to call that pathetic when the Rangers, Pirates & Rockies registered 67, 73 & 76 marks. Unless you want to say those three were abhorrent, putrid, laughable or just downright stunk, I guess. Vogelbach actually outpaced Gyorko in both wRC+ (164 to 118) & batting runs (5.5 to 3.1), so if they decide not to offer him Arby's they could be down their two best hitters from 2020 heading into 2021. Luckily, Yelich (112 wRC+) Hiura (87 wRC+) Garcia (81 wRC+) Urias (66 wRC+) & Narvaez (59 wRC+) will all project for significant positive regression in 2021. Cain will be coming back. They'll add a couple two tree four guys in the offseason. Looks like a pretty easy over on an 89 wRC+ for 2021 before a single acquisition is made.
  25. sveumrules
    The splits definitely back this up... Gyorko OPS vs RHP 2017: 763 | 2018: 702 | 2020: 699 Gyorko OPS vs LHP 2017: 975 | 2018: 919 | 2020: 1048 If they want to bring back Jedd as a lefty bashing backup at 1B, 2B, 3B I'd imagine they will have no problem signing him for less than the option amount given the flooded market & near leaguewide cost consciusness that will likely be on display this winter.
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