sveumrules

From 2018-19 Smoak posted... wRC+: 112 | BB%: 14.8 | K%: 23.9 | ISO: .208 Average 1B from 2018-19 posted... wRC+: 108 | BB%: 10.0 | K%: 22.3 | ISO: .196 Brewers 1B from 2018-19 posted... wRC+: 118 | BB%: 11.3 | K%: 25.9 | ISO: .244

Teheran is younger, more durable & strikes out more batters, yes. That is probably why he cost almost twice as much. Does that necessarily mean he is a better pitcher though? Brett 2017-19 | FIP- 100 | 3.7 fWAR Julio 2017-19 | FIP- 114| 3.3 fWAR Even though Anderson pitched considerably less innings (311 vs 538) than Teheran over the last three seasons, he still provided more value as he was about 14% better on a per inning basis.

This is what I’ve alluded to a couple times this offseason as well. Infield defense is becoming less important and I think that might be the newest trend Stearns is spearheading and giving a shot. Maybe a Castellanos signing for 3B isn’t out of the realm of possibility! This article (which is now two years old, K rate has risen another 1.5% since it was published) shows that defensive opportunities at every position except 1B & 3B have declined markedly (between 18.9% & 27.2%) since 2007 as strikeouts have become more & more prevalent... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/

Sogard has played 6 full-ish seasons & posted the following WAR totals... 2019: 2.6 bWAR | 2.7 fWAR 2018: -0.9 bWAR | -0.8 fWAR 2017: 1.9 bWAR | 1.1 fWAR 2015: 1.0 bWAR | 0.4 fWAR 2014: 0.6 bWAR | 0.1 fWAR 2013: 1.9 bWAR | 1.5 fWAR Add it all up & over six full-ish seasons Sogard has averaged about 1.2 bWAR & 0.8 fWAR per season. That is about as close to a 1 WAR player as you are going to get & probably about all the Brewers are expecting for 4.5 million.

Dan Szymborski has been wrapping up his 2019 Team Elegy series over at FanGraphs & today is the Cardinals piece which indicates that since the 2008 season, the Brewers have been the 6th most above averagest team in all of MLB. Print the banners now. If you're interested in reading more about a division rival, or perusing how the entire league stacks up in terms of consistent above averageness since 2008, you can do so here... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-are-baseballs-above-averagest-team/

Jeff McNeil played his first MLB game on 7/24/18. Since then there are 115 qualified batters with McNeil ranking... PAs: 815 (64th) | wRC+: 141 (13th) | K%: 12.1 (7th) | WAR: 7.3 (15th) Now of course, that doesn't compare to the current version of Yelich, though it is not that far off since there are only 13 players closer to Yelich in overall value than McNeil has been since he debuted, but this version of Yelich certainly wasn't the version of Yelich we acquired, or even saw at the outset of his tenure with the Brewers. The seemingly relevant comparison would be how McNeil compares to Yelich's most recent performance before his breakout following the 2018 ASG. So, Chrsitian Yelich from 2017 through the 2018 ASG, of 129 qualified batters, ranked... PAs: 1,052 (27th) | wRC+: 119 (48th) | K%: 20.9 (78th) | WAR: 6.8 (27th)

I'm not a member of the Brewers front office, but I can virtually guarantee that Stearns & company give zero regard to how sexy their moves appear to the average fan.

Brewers 1B Melvin Years (2011-15) 104 wRC+ (20th) 2.6 WAR (25th) Brewers 1B Stearns Years (2016-19) 119 wRC+ (8th) 9.1 WAR (10th)

And what I'm saying is that I would not bet on that to continue in 2020. I wouldn't count on it as a given either, but certain elements of team building (namely a strong bullpen, though I am sure there are others) can contribute to a team's likelihood of beating their pythag/baseruns estimated records. If anyone has figured out a way to gain even the most marginal of advantages in this realm, I would bet on Stearns & company being those anyones. My predictions for 2020 given how things stand today would be pretty straight forward, I believe the Reds will have a better starting rotation than the Brewers (again) but the Brewers will win more games than the Reds (again) because their team is deeper & their front office has better processes.

Over the last two years the Brewers +13 differential versus their pythag is the second largest margin behind only Baltimore at -14, so over the last two years anyway, pyhtag has been awfuller at predicting the Brewers record than all but 28 other teams. Full list if anyone is curious... BAL -14 MKE +13 LAD -11 SEA +11 WAS -10 KCR -9 SFG +9 ARI -7 CIN -7 CLE -7 HOU -6 COL +6 PHI +6 CHC -5 NYY +5 MIN +5 ATL +4 TBR +4 CHW +3 PIT +3 DET -2 BOS +2 OAK +2 NYM -1 STL -1 LAA -1 TEX -1 SDP +1 MIA +1 TOR 0

Reds starters 2019: 4.12 ERA (92 ERA-) Brewers starters 2019: 4.40 ERA (99 ERA-) Reds wins 2019: 75 Brewers wins 2019: 89 Somehow Stearns & company won 14 more games than the Reds last year even though their rotation was 7% worse by ERA. I'd say the bad look is trying to find the negative in every transaction Stearns & company do or don't make when they clearly know more than we do & have the track record of success to prove it. Disagree but do you. Anyone arguing that the Brewers rotation as it stands today is looking better than the Reds should switch to football takes. What do you specifically disagree with? The 2019 team ERA, ERA-, win totals & the differences between said numbers are all verifiable facts. So you disagree that Sterans & company know more than we do or that they have a track record of success to prove it or both?

Anderson's injury history is very real & a legitimate concern. If he does get hurt & misses significant time (or is ineffective) you plug in his spot & you're out 5 million bucks. If Miley gets hurt or is ineffective this year (coming off a horrendous finish to last season increases the odds of this outcome, imo) you're out 7.5 million plus you have 7.5 million reasons to give him a shot again in 2021 coming off a possible injured/ineffective season to maybe provide zilch again. Anderson provides much more flexibility & is likely to provide similar results as Miley in 2020. Viewed through that lens I can understand why Stearns & company preferred Brett at 1/5 to Wade at 2/15.

Reds starters 2019: 4.12 ERA (92 ERA-) Brewers starters 2019: 4.40 ERA (99 ERA-) Reds wins 2019: 75 Brewers wins 2019: 89 Somehow Stearns & company won 14 more games than the Reds last year even though their rotation was 7% worse by ERA. I'd say the bad look is trying to find the negative in every transaction Stearns & company do or don't make when they clearly know more than we do & have the track record of success to prove it.

Will be interesting to see how his hands measure at the combine. A lot easier to hold a clipboard with big mitts.

Sure, Miley is probably a better pitcher than Anderson. That's why he got a contract for twice as long & thrice as much. But considering Anderson at the very worst matched Miley's production just last year, lucky or not, I'd say his chances of doing so again in 2020 would be better than the chances a snowball stands in hell.

You can buy a lot of Skyline Chili with 15 million. Then again, after he wins the 2020 NL Cy Young & World Series MVP awards, they'll probably just give it to him for free.

Speed is an interesting one because it obviously helps your OBP by getting those extra infield hits, but it also seems like often times "speed guys" end up having over agressive approaches and/or limited power, so any BABIP gains are cancelled out & more by the lack of walks and/or power.

Actually that's only 1 million 290 thousand. You're missing a few zeros. Haha, whoops. I often feel the same way about my pay checks.

The Cain deal is by far dicier? In his three seasons prior to free agency Lorenzo posted 12.5 fWAR/15.6 bWAR. He has already posted 7.2 fWAR/9.7 bWAR in the first two years of his deal. Over the last three years MadBum has posted 6.2 fWAR/8.7 rWAR. The only advantage he has over Lorenzo is being two years younger when he signed his deal.

I don't have any data to back this up but my guess is about 10% of these types of FA deals favor the team and the other 90% favor the players. Free agent deals rarely end up being worth it when you go to 5 years. Looking at the 2014 offseason here are all the contracts signed for at least 3 years & decent money, with how they turned out (so far in Max & Lester's cases)... Max Scherzer | 7/210 | 32.5 fWAR, 34.7 rWAR | TEAM Jon Lester | 6/155 | 16.8 fWAR, 17.9 rWAR | FAIR Pablo Sandoval | 5/95 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR | PLAYER Hanley Ramirez | 4/88 | 1.3 fWAR, 1.4 rWAR | PLAYER Russell Martin | 5/82 | 12.5 fWAR, 8.4 bWAR | FAIR James Shields | 4/75 | 0.8 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER Victor Martinez 4/68 | -3.7 fWAR, -1.8 bWAR | PLAYER Yasmany Tomas | 6/68 | -0.6 fWAR, -2.5 bWAR | PLAYER Nelson Cruz | 4/57 | 15.7 fWAR, 17.0 bWAR | TEAM Ervin Santana | 4/55 | 7.2 fWAR, 10.8 rWAR | FAIR Chase Headley | 4/52 | 5.9 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR | PLAYER Brandon McCarthy | 4/48 | 2.7 fWAR, 1.9 rWAR | PLAYER David Robertson | 4/46 | 6.0 fWAR, 5.8 rWAR | FAIR Nick Markakis | 4/44 | 5.8 fWAR, 6.6 bWAR | FAIR Melky Cabrera | 3/42 | 2.2 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR | PLAYER Francisco Liriano | 3/39 | 4.6 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER Andrew Miller | 4/36 | 7.2 fWAR, 8.8 rWAR | TEAM Billy Butler | 3/30 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR | PLAYER By my count that's 18 deals with the team "winning" three, five more that were fair then the last ten being overpays of varying degrees. In total it looks like $1,290,000 (yes, that is one billion two hundred ninety million dollars) were spent on those 18 players, who have produced in the neighborhood of 105-132 WAR, with three years total left to go between Max & Lester. Assuming another 10 WAR for those last three Max & Lester seasons & you're looking at somewhere between 9.1 & 11.2 million per win. You could almost say when it comes to free agency, it often pays to not spend.

Soler, Schwarber, Eloy would be a horrendous defensive outfield.

In general, I agree, but if we acquired Marco Gonzalez or Eduardo Rodriguez (who were both top 30 by fWAR) you'd have a hard time convincing many they were #2 pitchers much less a #1. Looking at it somewhat outside the "30 teams" grouping system, since talent/results are not evenly distributed, there were 146 starters with at least 70 IP in 2019. Of that sample I would say there were 6 aces (6.0+ WAR), 10 number ones (4.5-5.9 WAR), 25 number twos (3.0-4.4 WAR), 51 number threes (1.5-2.9 WAR), 34 number fours (0.5-1.4 WAR) & everyone else is a five or didn't throw 70 IP.

Are you classifying Woodruff as a #2 based on WAR? His FIP- was in the range of a #1. WAR is a counting stat, and Woodruff missed almost two months due to the oblique injury, hindering his ability to accumulate WAR. One could argue that based on ability (FIP-), Woodruff is a #1. Yeah, the FIP is in the #1 range, but with the injury/limited innings the actual production comes out in the #2 range. Guess you could say #1/2 since he's borderline. If he tops 180 IP this year I think he has a good shot at being a top 15ish pitcher in all of MLB. Montas, Glasnow & Greinke w/Astros were a few other guys like Woodruff where they had the #1 peripherals, but not enough IP to meet the WAR threshold, so I put him down as a #2. Ultimately, for me anyway, to be a "true" #1 you need the peripherals & innings.

Interestingly, to me anyway, there are exactly 150 starters with at least 500 IP since Ryu's first MLB season in 2013. For his career as a whole has pitched like a #1 (ERA-: 79, 13th | FIP-: 83, 17th) when on the mound, but he hasn't always been on the mound (736 IP, 83rd) so his actual production (rWAR: 17.3, 34th | fWAR: 15.0, 40th) is more in line with a solid #2. His yearly results look like this... 2013: 192 IP | 84 ERA-/87 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR/3.8 fWAR (#2) 2014: 152 IP | 97 ERA-/72 FIP- | 2.4 rWAR/4.0 fWAR (#2/3) 2015: (hurt) 2016: (hurt) 2017: 126 IP | 91 ERA-/112 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR/0.6 fWAR (#3/4) 2018: 82 IP | 51 ERA-/75 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR/1.9 fWAR (#2/3) 2019: 182 IP | 55 ERA-/71 FIP- | 6.7 rWAR/4.8 fWAR (#1)

Here's the 2019 playoff teams (plus the Cubs!!) rotations... Brewers (10.5 rWAR, 8.7 fWAR) Woodruff | 82 ERA-/67 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/3.3 fWAR (#2) 0.6 million Davies | 80 ERA-/102 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/1.6 fWAR (#2/3) 2.6 million Chase | 94 ERA-/107 FIP- | 2.2 rWAR/1.3 fWAR (#3/4) 6.5 million Lyles | 55 ERA-/99 FIP- | 2.0 rWAR/0.8 fWAR (#3/4) 0.7 million Gio | 85 ERA-/95 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR/1.2 fWAR (#3) 1.7 million Adrian | 103 ERA-/94 FIP- | 0.9 rWAR/1.1 fWAR (#4) 0.5 million Jhoulys | 130 ERA-/127 FIP- | -0.3 rWAR/0.1 fWAR (#6) 6.8 million Yankees (11.3 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR) Paxton | 83 ERA-/83 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/3.5 fWAR (#2) 8.6 million Tanaka | 97 ERA-/92 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR/3.2 fWAR (#2) 22 million German | 93 ERA-/105 FIP- | 2.2 rWAR/1.5 fWAR (#3) 0.6 million Happ | 109 ERA-/114 FIP- | 1.9 rWAR/1.1 fWAR (#4) 17 million Sabathia | 108 ERA-/122 FIP- | 0.8 rWAR/0.4 fWAR (#5) 8 million Braves (13.8 rWAR, 11.3 fWAR) Soroka | 60 ERA-/79 FIP- | 6.1 rWAR/4.0 fWAR (#1/2) 0.5 million Teheran | 86 ERA-/106 FIP- | 3.3 rWAR/1.6 fWAR (#2/3) 11.2 million Fried | 94 ERA-/85 FIP- | 2.5 rWAR/2.9 fWAR (#2/3) 0.6 million Dallas | 85 ERA-/108 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR/0.8 fWAR (#3) 13 million Folty | 102 ERA-/114 FIP- | 1.2 rWAR/0.8 fWAR (#4) 5.5 million Gausman | 139 ERA-/96 FIP- | -0.6 rWAR/1.2 fWAR (#4/5) 6.5 million Cubs (13.8 rWAR, 15.7 fWAR) Hendricks | 79 ERA-/81 FIP- | 4.0 rWAR/4.1 fWAR (#2) 7.4 million Darvish | 91 ERA-/94 FIP- | 3.6 rWAR/2.6 fWAR (#2/3) 20 million Hamels | 87 ERA-/92 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/2.5 fWAR (#2/3) 20 million Lester | 102 ERA-/96 FIP- | 1.4 rWAR/2.8 fWAR (#3) 27.5 million Quintana | 110 ERA-/87 FIP- | 1.3 rWAR/3.3 fWAR (#3) 10.5 million Twins (14.7 rWAR, 16.6 fWAR) Odorizzi | 75 ERA-/73 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR (#2) 9.5 million Berrios | 79 ERA-/84 FIP- | 4.1 rWAR/4.4 fWAR (#2) 0.6 million Pineda | 86 ERA-/87 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/2.7 fWAR (#2/3) 8.0 million Gibson | 105 ERA-/93 FIP- | 0.9 rWAR/2.5 fWAR (#3/4) 8.1 million Perez | 107 ERA-/102 FIP- | 1.1 rWAR/1.8 fWAR (#3/4) 3.5 million Rays (16.0 rWAR, 17.6 fWAR) Morton | 69 ERA-/64 FIP- | 5.8 rWAR/6.1 fWAR (#1) 15 million Glasnow | 40 ERA-/52 FIP- | 2.9 rWAR/2.3 fWAR (#2) 0.6 million Snell | 96 ERA-/75 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR/2.7 fWAR (#3) 1.6 million Yonny | 79 ERA-/94 FIP- | 2.5 rWAR/1.6 fWAR (#3) 0.6 million Yarbro | 97 ERA-/81 FIP- | 1.3 rWAR/1.9 fWAR (#3) 0.5 million Stanek | 47 ERA-/64 FIP- | 1.6 rWAR/1.3 fWAR (OPNR) 0.4 million A's (17.3 rWAR, 11.8 fWAR) Montas | 59 ERA-/67 FIP- | 2.9 rWAR/3.0 fWAR (#2) 0.4 million Brett | 87 ERA-/102 FIP- | 3.6 rWAR/2.0 fWAR (#2/3) 1.5 million Fiers | 87 ERA-/111 FIP- | 4.0 rWAR/1.7 fWAR (#2/3) 6.0 million Bassitt | 89 ERA-/101 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR/2.0 fWAR (#3) 0.6 million Bailey | 96 ERA-/82 FIP- | 1.3 rWAR/1.7 fWAR (#3) 0.3 million Mengden | 95 ERA-/99 FIP- | 0.9 rWAR/0.7 fWAR (#3/4) 0.3 million Roark | 103 ERA-/126 FIP- | 0.7 rWAR/0.1 fWAR (#4/5) 1.2 million Cardinals (17.4 rWAR, 10.9 fWAR) Flaherty | 65 ERA-/80 FIP- | 6.9 rWAR/4.7 fWAR (#1) 0.6 million Hudson | 79 ERA-/113 FIP- | 3.3 rWAR/1.1 fWAR (#2/3) 0.6 million Mikolas | 98 ERA-/99 FIP- | 2.9 rWAR/2.5 fWAR (#3) 8.8 million Waino | 99 ERA-/100 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR/2.2 fWAR (#3) 10 million Wacha | 110 ERA-/128 FIP- | 1.1 rWAR/0.0 fWAR (#4/5) 6.4 million Astros (21.8 rWAR, 19.4 fWAR) Cole | 56 ERA-/59 FIP- | 7.8 rWAR/7.4 fWAR (#1) 13.5 million Verlander | 58 ERA-/73 FIP- | 8.8 rWAR/6.6 fWAR (#1) 20 million Miley | 89 ERA-/100 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR/2.0 fWAR (#3) 5 million Greinke | 68 ERA-/73 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR/1.7 fWAR (#2) 4.5 million Peacock | 95 ERA-/96 FIP- | 1.5 rWAR/1.1 fWAR (#3/4) 3.1 million McHugh | 143 ERA-/116 FIP- | -0.3 rWAR/0.2 fWAR (#5) 5.8 million Dodgers (22.8 rWAR, 19.8 fWAR) Ryu | 55 ERA-/71 FIP- | 6.7 rWAR/4.8 fWAR (#1) 17.9 million Buehler | 78 ERA-/69 FIP- | 3.9 rWAR/5.0 fWAR (#1/2) 0.6 million Kershaw | 73 ERA-/89 FIP- | 5.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR (#1/2) 31 million Maeda | 99 ERA-/91 FIP- | 2.2 rWAR/2.3 fWAR (#3) 3.1 million Hill | 58 ERA-/94 FIP- | 1.8 rWAR/0.9 fWAR (#3) 18.7 million Stripling | 86 ERA-/84 FIP- | 1.4 rWAR/1.5 fWAR (#3) 0.6 million Nationals (24.9 rWAR, 21.4 fWAR) Scherzer | 65 ERA-/54 FIP- | 6.0 rWAR/6.5 fWAR (#1) 37.5 million Strasburg | 74 ERA-/72 FIP- | 6.4 rWAR/5.7 fWAR (#1) 35 million Corbin | 72 ERA-/77 FIP- | 5.5 rWAR/4.8 fWAR (#1) 12.9 million Anibal | 86 ERA-/98 FIP- | 3.5 rWAR/2.5 fWAR (#2/3) 6 million My personal takeaways (if you made it this far) are that A) the only "number one" we could have realistically acquired in the last couple two tree years is probably Charlie Morton & 2) the general composition our staff most resembles the Rays & A's; two other smart, poor (by MLB standards), yet still successful teams. Make of all of it what you will or won't.