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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    It's never a good idea to throw out advanced metrics, especially with someone like Seager who has played his entire career in one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in MLB. A .304 OBP/.740 OPS might look ugly on the surface, but it's still essentially league average (101 OPS+) once you consider Kyle's home park. As for the glove, a run saved is just as valuable as a run scored. Last year JD Davis posted a 136 wRC+ with -9.0 defense for 2.4 WAR. Seager posted a 110 wRC+ with +8.3 defense for 2.4 WAR.
  2. sveumrules
    Lutz has been 2.5 years young for his level each of the last two years & still managed a 110 wRC+ in A ball & a 120 wRC+ in A+. If you are just focusing on batting average without league context, OBP & SLG included you might be undervaluing Lutz.
  3. sveumrules
    Not enough power to play 3rd regularly IMO. To me, your corner infielders should be a minimum of 25-30 HR guys, and if you have a SS, C or 2B that have above average power for their position, that's just a huge bonus. MLB average 3B wRC+ 2017-19: 103, 106, 107 Asdrubal wRC+ 2017-19: 112, 111, 98 As long as Cabrera can rebound closer to his 105 career wRC+ mark he should be around a league average 3B in 2020.
  4. sveumrules
    The Yankees had a top 3 bullpen in all of MLB last year & from what I can tell, all the top guys (Chapman, Ottavino, Britton, Green, Kahnle) are coming back in 2020. They don't really need Hader. The names floated so far seem to reflect that. I don't think any of the smarter teams (& especially the ones that are rich to boot) really need Hader to the extent that they'd overpay (in their estimation) by including an elite young position player or prospect like Gleyber or Lux, because they understand that even an elite reliever like Hader is still incredibly volatile & (unless you magically turn him into a starter) is already at his peak value, where guys like Gleyber or Lux have both more control & much higher ceilings than Josh.
  5. sveumrules
    I think something like Dom Smith, Steve Matz, one of Gimenez/Mauricio (Mets top 2 SS prospects) and then someone like David Peterson (LH starter, 1st round pick in 2017, should open 2020 in AAA) would have been pretty fair value. Mets probably pulled out because they thought it was too much, many Brewer fans would probably think we sold low since it's more of a quantity package without one big marquee name & therein lies why a Hader deal is unlikely to come together. Teams are going to be hesitant to include that one guy that puts it over the top & makes it a clear win for the Brewers, especially with guys like Will Harris, Collin McHugh & Daniel Hudson still on the market that require no prospect capital to obtain.
  6. sveumrules
    They better be. They spent a ton. All in all it's discouraging as a Brewer fan to watch a team that drew a million or so fewer fans spend like that while the Brewers continue to shop in the bargain bin Sure the White Sox drew a million fewer fans. They also just signed a new TV deal that will dwarf the revenue produced by a million fans.
  7. sveumrules
    We've exceeded the expectations of even the most astute national experts every season since Stearns & company got here. What to you may clearly seem to be Stearns gambling on himself, to me clearly seems to be Stearns & company using the same processes they've been employing to find value & beat the projections the last four years running.
  8. sveumrules
    Advanced metrics go back to 2002. In that time there have been 344 qualified 3B seasons. The worst by DRS are... 2007 Braun: -32 (344th) | 2014 Castellanos: -30 (343rd) | 2018 Andujar: -25 (341st) UZR has it... 2007 Braun: -28.5 (344th) | 2018 Andujar: -16 (341st) | 2014 Castellanos: -10.6 (322nd) We know what happened to Braun, hello OF!! Over the next three years Castellanos improved from historically awful to merely worst in MLB with a -34 DRS & -15.3 UZR in 3,000+ innings at 3B until, he too said, hello OF!! Andujar was also historically awful as a rookie, then got injured, but considering he is three years younger & has played 3B more recently than Castellanos, I'd imagine that Miguel would be better (less bad?) afield in 2020. But, Castellanos looks to be OF only at this point so we'll probably never get to find out.
  9. sveumrules
    The issues I would take with your methodology is that while rate stats are great, you have used the raw numbers as opposed the park/seasonal adjusted numbers. You have also completely excluded volume (both in terms of IP & 2017 numbers) & leverage from your analysis. From 2017-19, among 196 relievers with at least 100 IP, Josh ranks... IP: 204 (13th) | ERA- 57 (7th) | FIP- 63 (9th) | xFIP- 59 (1st) | rWAR: 7.2 (1st) | fWAR: 5.9 (2nd) | WPA: +7.26 (2nd) While their may be a handful of pitchers better than or equal to Hader on a per inning basis, once you include leverage & IP, the only reliever better over the last three years is Vasquez, who is probably never pitching in MLB again.
  10. sveumrules
    Here were the closest Shaw comps I could find in the last 25 years that went on to have success (or at least return to their normal level of production) after an abysmal season (minimum 250 PAs)... Shaw pre-2019 | 1,971 PAs | 111 wRC+ Shaw 2019 | 270 PAs | 47 wRC+ Shaw post-2109 | ??? Jermaine Dye 1999-2002 | 2,582 PAs | 118 wRC+ Jermaine Dye 2003 | 253 PAs | 36 wRC+ Jermaine Dye 2004-09 | 3,560 PAs| 119 wRC+ Tony Clark 1997-2001 | 2,692 PAs | 122 wRC+ Tony Clark 2002 | 298 PAs | 45 wRC+ Tony Clark 2003-05 | 956 PAs | 117 wRC+ Ronnie Belliard 1999-2001 | 1,608 PAs | 99 wRC+ Ronnie Belliard 2002 | 317 PAs | 42 wRC+ Ronnie Belliard 2003-05 | 1,755 PAs | 100 wRC+ That's about it. Next closest is probably Scott Brosius who had a three year stretch where he went 500 PAs/131 wRC+ followed by 526 PAs/50 wRC+ then rebounded to 603 PAs/123 wRC+. Most of other guys over the last 25 years with at least 250 PAs in a single season & a wRC+ in the same range as Shaw's 47 mark from 2019 were back up catchers, utility infielders or guys at the very begining or ends of their careers.
  11. sveumrules
    Smoak (-5 DRS / +0.3 UZR, 2017-19), Garcia (-1 DRS / +0.3 UZR, 2017-19) & Sogard (+2 DRS / -2.2 UZR, 2017-19) have all been pretty much average afield over the last three years. Urias doesn't have a large MLB sample, but scouting reports indicate he is plus at 2B & adequate at SS. The only acquisition this offseason with truly terrible defense is Narvaez, but that can be mitigated considerably by subbing in Pina for the last couple two tree innings of close games when we're ahead & possibly even moreso down the road with our potential new robot umpire overlords. Sure, no true plus defenders have been acquired, but saying Stearns has shown a total disregard for defense this offseason seems a little hyperbolic. The other thing to consider, is that there is far more opportunity (& we can much more accurately quantify) offensive contribution versus defensive. In 2019 there were 135 qualified batters ranging from Mike Trout at +68.2 runs of offense at the top to Orlando Arcia at -27.3 runs of offense on the bottom. The range for DRS from top to bottom among 107 qualifiers was +29 (Roberto Perez) to -21 (Xander Bogaerts) while the range for UZR was +14.8 (Matt Chapman) to -10.6 (Charlie Blackmon).
  12. sveumrules
    If, 1/2 season Aroldis = 6 years Gleyber... &, 4 seasons Josh = 8 x 1/2 season Aroldis... Then, 4 seasons Josh = 48 years Gleyber. Since Gleyber is now down to 5 years of control, I think 9 Torreses should suffice.
  13. sveumrules
    Right. Many other players in Middleton's salary range will also see their salaries increase in coming seasons as most high dollar NBA contracts are structured in that fashion. For the season at hand, it appears he is overpaid by less than 5 million dollars, which ultimately is a relatively paltry sum & far less than the die hard Khris detractors make it out to be.
  14. sveumrules
    This team's identity is 2019 NFC North Champs.
  15. sveumrules
    That is the third.
  16. sveumrules
    -3 turnovers. -1 point.
  17. sveumrules
    According to Spotrac, Middleton is the 19th highest paid player this season at 30.6 million. Coming into the season Forbes averaged the results of over a dozen preseason top 100 player lists, with some other predictive inputs mixed in & Khris came in at #32. The 32nd highest paid player this year is making 27.3 million. I'm sure there are plenty of players around the league that overpaid by more than Middleton's 3-4 million-ish.
  18. sveumrules
    Absolutely running Malcolm Brogdon & the Pacers out of the FourOneForum on the second game of a back to back & third game in four days.
  19. sveumrules
    If you listen to the majority of fans, pretty soon you're sitting in the stands with them. Sogard has averaged around 1 WAR per year over the last six seasons he has played & is most likely, though certainly by no means guaranteed, to come in around that level of production in 2020. Four & a half million dollars is a perfectly cromulent salary for a player of Eric's ilk.
  20. sveumrules
    If you listen to the majority of fans, pretty soon you're sitting in the stands with them. Sogard has averaged around 1 WAR per year over the last six seasons he has played & is most likely, though certainly by no means guaranteed, to come in around that level of production in 2020. Four & a half million dollars is a perfectly cromulent salary for a player of Eric's ilk.
  21. sveumrules
    I'd imagine Justin is a fan of tailgating in the parking lot before the game since Smoak-ing is not allowed once inside the stadium.
  22. sveumrules
    I'd imagine Justin is a fan of tailgating in the parking lot before the game since Smoak-ing is not allowed once inside the stadium.
  23. sveumrules
    MLBTR saying that the Indians are showing a lot of interest in Jeff McNeil in any potential Lindor deal, but the Mets aren't willing to deal him. Probably means he would be out of consideration in any possible Hader deal as well.
  24. sveumrules
    Failed to the tune of a 20+ bWAR career with the Braves. You know how many pitchers have achieved that wearing a Brewer uniform? Hint, you can count them all on one hand, even if that hand is missing some fingers. I like Teheran as a reliable, mid-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guy and would have picked him over Anderson, even with the difference in salary. And this is the primary reason why. Teheran became a full time starter in 2013, and from 2013-2019 he's made 222 starts (32 starts per year) and has thrown 1334 innings (191 innings per year). Over that same time-frame, Anderson has made 108 starts (15 starts per year) and has thrown 591 1/3 innings (84 innings per season). The other thing is that people will knock Teheran on his peripherals, but the bottom line is run prevention and Teheran has posted a better ERA than FIP for SEVEN consecutive seasons. Over the last three seasons his ERA has been 4.09 and it dropped when going from 2017 to 2018 and then dropped again when going from 2018 to 2019. Looking at durability and run prevention, I think he's a really solid investment at 9 million. Chase Anderson 2016-19 | 3.83 ERA | 4.70 FIP Julio Teheran 2016-19 | 3.86 ERA | 4.53 FIP If the Brewers thought 8.5 million was too rich for perennial FIP beater Chase Anderson, I can see why they might think 9 million is too rich for Julio Teheran.
  25. sveumrules
    Since 2017 there are 93 pitchers with at least 350 IP. Cleveinger ranks... IP: 447 (52nd) | ERA- 65 (5th) | FIP- 76 (13th) | rWAR: 14.4 (11th) | fWAR: 10.8 (18th) A top of the rotation arm like Clevinger will still probably throw around 200 more innings during his three years of team control than even an elite reliever like Hader will in his four. I don't think Arcia & Ray would be enough to overcome that value deficit. Cleveland's in the same position with Clevinger that we are with Hader where they don't need to deal him so it would probably take something more like Hader, Urias, Ray & Burnes to get their attention. Maybe they throw in someone like Yu Chang or Sam Hentges to even it out & get us some more service time coming back.
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