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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Just about every pitcher would be better as a reliever. It's just easier to go through an order once at max effort than a couple two tree times with increasing familiarity to the batters & fatigue as you go along. What the question really boils down to is, given our other options is Houser more valuable to the 2020 Brewers as say 150 IP of 100 ERA+ (league average starter) or 75 IP of 150 ERA+ (top end reliever)? Obviously it's not that simple & there are myriad factors at play, but FanGraphs had a pretty interesting article going over the various SP/RP scenarios using Carlos Martinez as an example that seems pretty applicable to Houser's potential usage situation(s)... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-martinez-epitomizes-contextual-value-and-other-business-school-buzzwords/
  2. sveumrules
    In 2018, we won 96 games & lost in Game 7 of the NLCS. In 2019, we won 89 games & lost in the Wild Card game. Anyone talking about how much better we were ended up wrong, just like most January prognosticators.
  3. sveumrules
    Of course he is meh, it’s a minor league deal. If he was good, he probably would’ve gotten a major league deal.
  4. sveumrules
    People said the same thing last year, then Chacin, Peralta & Burnes all bombed. Those three plus Jimmy Nelson combined for 34 starts, 154 IP, 119 ER, 6.95 ERA & -4.88 Win Probability Added in the rotation. We still made the playoffs & almost knocked out the eventual WS champs. The only thing I'm willing to proclaim with any degree of certainty at this point is it's too early for any proclamations.
  5. sveumrules
    I will continue to call it Borchert Field.
  6. sveumrules
    So far this season, the Bucks are shooting 625/1733 (.361) on threes while their opponents are shooting 631/1753 (.360). It has essentially been about as close to a wash as you can get. On two points attempts the Bucks are shooting 1345/2356 (.571, 1st in NBA. 2nd is .554!!) while their opponents are shooting 1097/2466 (.445, 30th in NBA. 29th is .489!!!!). So, even on threes plus elite at converting twos plus even more elite at defending twos plus an extra 90 made free throws = an historic point differential.
  7. sveumrules
    For guys I have actually seen I would probably rank them (all numbers SS only)... ARod | 5687 PA | +38 BSR | +18 FLD | 144 OPS+ | 63.6 WAR Ripken | 10329 PA | -20 BSR | +181 FLD | 117 OPS+ | 88.8 WAR Larkin | 9057 PA | +84 BSR | +18 FLD | 116 OPS+ | 70.4 WAR Ozzie | 10778 PA | +102 BSR | +239 FLD | 87 OPS+ | 76.9 WAR Jeter | 12602 PA | +63 BSR | -243 FLD | 115 OPS+ | 72.4 WAR
  8. sveumrules
    Bryan LaHair was an All Star for the Cubs back in 2012 & never played in MLB again. They couldn't even deal him for a Jake Faria. Nondescript 1B only types have been viewed as largely interchangeable for some time now. Looks like Jesus will be battling it out with another BF.net favorite Garrett Cooper for playing time in MIA this year.
  9. sveumrules
    Since the Philly loss Bucks are 12-1 with a +13.7 point differential. Opposing teams have shot .339 (league average is .354) on 40.4 3PA per game over that stretch. With Denver/Philly at Fiserv & Indy on the road our only tough games, we should probably be heading into the break with at worst a 46-8 record. Khris Middleton is putting up a career best season. Brogdon has already missed a dozen games. Obviously none of it matters until they make it to or win the Finals, but this has been an extremely entertaining season to watch unfold, both on & off the court. Looking forward to Paris on Friday.
  10. sveumrules
    He will always be one of my favorite Brewers players ever, such a special talent and personality. He was one of the only bright parts in those rebuilding years. Agreed. Those 2013/14 seasons rank 9th & 22nd by fWAR in franchise history among 580 qualified individual seasons. That he begat Hader, Houser, Domingo & Maverick is a nice bonus too. If you consider Yount as a SS, Carlos is probably the best CF in franchise history. Even if you don't, Gomez put up around 77% of Robin's CF bWAR in only about 51% of the plate appearances... Yount CF | 1185 G | 5101 PA | 117 OPS+ | +20 BSR | -66 FLD | 24.9 WAR Gomez | 697 G | 2576 PA | 110 OPS+ | +5 BSR | +57 FLD | 19.1 WAR
  11. sveumrules
    If we can score three more touchdowns & not allow any more points...I like our chances.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, the Nets court definitely pops on TV in a unique way. Kyrie was right though, they need a couple two tree more pieces.
  13. sveumrules
    To answer your first question, not necessarily. Say we're contending with Suter, Knebel, Burnes & Peralta, or even three of the four, pitching well out of the pen in addition to Hader. You could deal Josh for a haul, deal a lesser prospect for another reliever (think Soria/Swarzak/Pomeranz trades) & still have plenty of bullpen depth for the stretch run. To answer your second question, the praise the offseason moves have drawn from some is because they are low dollar, short term deals. If they don't work out, as some inevitably won't, we aren't stuck. We can move on with little hindrance. There are no guarantees of anything. I can realistically see scenarios where we are in contention at the deadline & keep Hader, in contention at the deadline & deal Hader, are out of contention at the deadline & keep Hader or are out of contention at the deadline & deal Hader. Stearns & company seem to have constructed the roster with specifically that sort of future flexibility in mind.
  14. sveumrules
    I think this is partly a byproduct of how often they get up big, like 20+ points. I wanna say last night it was a few minutes into the second quarter, they were already up 20+ & I was laughing about how it was already garbage time.
  15. sveumrules
    I wouldn't be surprised if anyone was doing anything, least of all the most successful players. I heard that the Cleveland Indians once sacrificed a live chicken in the clubhouse (or maybe they ended up just getting KFC?) in the heat of a pennant race to satisfy their slugger's religious beliefs.
  16. sveumrules
    You didn't think Rendon, or Cole or Strasburg were needle movers?? Yes, they move the needle far into the red, so they were never signing here.
  17. sveumrules
    Last year we won 89 games with literally thee most average-est pitching staff in all of MLB... SP: ERA- 99 | FIP- 103 | xFIP- 105 RP: ERA- 99 | FIP- 96 | xFIP- 94 All: ERA- 99 | FIP- 100 | xFIP- 100 ZIPS projects both the rotation & bullpen to improve upon their 2019 results, for whatever that is or isn't worth. I don't necessarily see it myself looking at the current collection of names, but I'm guessing the Brewers proprietary internal projections also believe impovement upon 2019 is a feasible, though of course by no means certain, outcome.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah but the Green Bay and Madison television markets are both decent size and overlap the Milwaukee market. True. Either way, the Twins still have a TV deal that pays them about 20 million more annually than the Brewers. Looking at the two teams' historical payrolls on Cots, both clubs broke 70 million in opening day payroll for the first time in 2007. Starting then, the Twins have spent about 1,334,600,000 dollars to go 1,019-1,089. They've made the postseason four times in that span going 0-10. Since 2007, the Brewers have spent about 1,258,400,000 dollars to go 1,077-1,030. They've also made the postseason four times in that span going 12-14. If you narrow it to just the Stearns years we've spent about 416,600,000 to go 344-305 compared to the Twins spending about 529,500,000 to go 323-325. Spending more money does not guarantee winning more games.
  19. sveumrules
    Numerous posters stated the same thing with regards to the Cubs signing Kimbrel last season... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38553&hilit=Kimbrel Arrested Developement Narrator: "He did not make them better."
  20. sveumrules
    Look at all the hate someone like Gyorko gets (or Wade Miley got) when they sign for even two million bucks. Helms signed for TWICE that & that was fifteen years ago when two million dollars was A LOT of money. Wonder if he'll bring in his old platoon partner Russell Branyan to control the clubhouse thermostat.
  21. sveumrules
    FanGraphs write up on the deal included Donaldson's four year ZIPS projection... "Projection-wise, ZiPS forecasts a steep fall-off from Donaldson’s age-34 to age-37 seasons, but just a hair under 10 WAR for the four guaranteed years — which is to say that this contract isn’t likely to be a bargain, but it should easily be worth the money on the front end, if not the back." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/josh-donaldson-upgrades-already-potent-twins-lineup/
  22. sveumrules
    According to Cots we are at around 96 million now against about 122 million on opening day 2019, so something like 26 million. Things to consider are that we had six more postseason home games plus whatever other playoff income there was coming into 2019 vs 2020 & comments have also indicated signing Grandal/Moose (28 million combined) put us some amount over budget, but an exception was made since they were one year deals.
  23. sveumrules
    Arraez does not appear to be blocked. He is likely slated as the Twins starting 2B... C: Garver/Avila | 1B: Sano | 2B: Arraez | 3B: Donaldson | SS: Polanco | LF: Rosario | CF: Buxton | RF: Kepler | DH: Cruz | Util: Marwin
  24. sveumrules
    At the very beginning of the offseason before any moves had even been made, we pretty much knew the Brewers weren't gonna sign Josh Donaldson.
  25. sveumrules
    Cain & Braun are our old guys getting seven figures. Those are our high dollar bets at the moment. The way Stearns & company clearly seem to value flexibility I don't think we'll ever have more than one or two old guys getting seven figures on multi year deals rostered at any given time, barring massive changes to the CBA.
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