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sveumrules

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  1. sveumrules
    Woodruff | 82 ERA-/67 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/3.3 fWAR (#2) Davies | 80 ERA-/102 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR/1.6 fWAR (#2/3) Chase | 94 ERA-/107 FIP- | 2.2 rWAR/1.3 fWAR (#3/4) Lyles | 55 ERA-/99 FIP- | 2.0 rWAR/0.8 fWAR (#3/4) Gio | 85 ERA-/95 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR/1.2 fWAR (#3) Adrian | 103 ERA-/94 FIP- | 0.9 rWAR/1.1 fWAR (#4) Jhoulys | 130 ERA-/127 FIP- | -0.3 rWAR/0.1 fWAR (#6) Lauer | 105 ERA-/97 FIP- | 1.3 rWAR/2.2 fWAR (#3) Brett | 87 ERA-/102 FIP- | 3.6 rWAR/2.0 fWAR (#2/3) The most impressive thing about the 2019 rotation to me is how much they were able to limit truly awful outings besides the 34 games started by Jhoulys, Burnes, Peralta & Nelson.
  2. sveumrules
    Seems like there is always a lot of discussion this time of year if a pitcher is a number one, a number two, et cetera, but there is really no consenus what any of that really means. I looked back at 2019 & there were 105 starters who threw at least 110 innings. Since I don't think anyone believes there are truly 30 "number one" starters, this seemed like a good cutoff since I could put the top 15 as "number ones", the next 30 as "number twos", the next 30 as "number threes", the last 30 as "number fours" & then anything worse that that is essentially a "number five". The approximate ranges for each spot in 2019 were... #1: 4.7-7.4 fWAR | 54-74 FIP- #2: 2.8-4.5 fWAR | 75-93 FIP- #3: 1.6-2.7 fWAR | 93-105 FIP- #4: 0.5-1.6 fWAR | 106-115 FIP- #5: < 0.5 fWAR | > 115 FIP- (I used fWAR/FIP-, but the ranges were pretty much the same for rWAR/ERA-.) Please feel free to use or ignore these hastily put together back of the napkin figures as you do or do not see fit.
  3. sveumrules
    Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6). None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production. Suter's 18 relief innings last year were amazing & integral to our success, but if he pitches all of 2020 out of the bullpen, the odds of him putting up 75+ innings with ERA-/FIP- marks around 60 & WAR/WPA marks of 2.5 (AKA an average Hader season), are extremely low. Would be beyond cool if it happened, but I certainly would bet the under.
  4. sveumrules
    Coming into 2016 Frazier was ranked between #27-53 by BA/MLB/BPro, Sheffield was #81 per BA & unranked by the other two sources. Kelenic was ranked between #56-68 by BA/MLB/BPro before being dealt, Dunn was #91 per MLB & unranked by the other sources. None of those guys were anywhere near the level of prospect that Lux or Adell are. Torres is the only elite, top 10 level prospect traded for a reliever in recent history & that was a very unique case & is universally regarded as an extreme overpay. I don't see any teams lining up to repeat that mistake, but again, would love to be proven wrong.
  5. sveumrules
    Any team dealing for Hader will be a contender, so if they are dealing MLB ready guys they will likely be doing so from a position of depth. No organization has tradable depth in the area of proven TOR arms.
  6. sveumrules
    Those numbers show you how ridiculous the simulator can be. It treats prospects like they were continous MLB all-stars. It actually attempts to establish a median value between the astronomically high surplus value provided by top prospects who live up to the hype versus the near zero value provided by some top prospects who inevitably flame out. FanGraphs research indicates a 60/65 FV position player prospect, guys like Adell or Lux, typically produce around 55-62 million in surplus value over their period of team control... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ If anything the publicly available valuations might actually undersell how much value teams place on true top prospects given how infrequently they are traded.
  7. sveumrules
    I don't think the current Dodgers are as desperate as the Cubs were when they traded Torres to end the longest Championship drought in pro sports history. If your expectation is a historical fleecing, you will likely think whatever return a hypothetical Hader trade brings is a pile of garbage. But I would love to be wrong.
  8. sveumrules
    Over the last three years our starting pitchers have posted a 94 ERA-, 10th best in baseball. Combined with our bullpen, offense & defense that has been good enough for the team to win 271 games, 8th most in MLB. Same as the Cubs, more than the A's or Rays or Cardinals. Our rotation has been good enough for us to miss the postseason in 2017 by 1 game when no one dreamed we would be that competitive, get us to Game 7 of the NLCS in 2018 & get us to the Wild Card game with a lead over the eventual WS Champs before our bullpen & defense lost the game in 2019. Is that "good enough"? Clearly, individual mileage will vary, but for me personally I think it has been very entertaining to observe over the last few years.
  9. sveumrules
    Would you have traded Hiura for Edwin Diaz last year? That's essentially what you're asking for with Lux or Adell for Hader. Diaz 2016-18 | 191 IP | 64 ERA-/60 FIP- | 5.9 rWAR/6.3 fWAR Hader 2017-19 | 204 IP | 57 ERA-/63 FIP- | 7.2 rWAR/5.9 fWAR I personally wouldn't have traded Hiura for Diaz & I don't believe either LA club would trade Lux or Adell for Hader because 6 years of an elite position player prospect is more valuable than 4 years of a reliever, even thee very best one in the game.
  10. sveumrules
    It's likely that Noah would throw more innings over his two years of control than Josh would over his four. Now of course, Hader's innings have been of a higher quality & come almost entirely in only the highest leverage spots, so the Mets would have to include one of Davis/Smith & more to even it out. If you want an established "ace" in return for Josh, I don't see us getting one that has equal or more control, just based on the volume difference between SP/RP. If Hader is dealt I would imagine that Stearns & company go for as much team control as possible in return. I still don't think Lux is going anywhere, but something like Ruiz/Gray from LAD plus a couple low level fliers the scouting/analytics department likes makes the most sense to me.
  11. sveumrules
    Just for a few other recentish Strasburg comps... Strasburg (age 23-30) 1,346 IP | 79 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 30.6 rWAR / 33.3 fWAR Greinke (age 23-30) 1,537 IP | 80 ERA- / 77 FIP- | 34.4 rWAR / 35.9 fWAR Greinke (age 31-35) 1,000 IP | 70 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 28.3 rWAR / 20.7 fWAR Verlander (age 23-30) 1,760 IP | 78 ERA- / 79 FIP- | 44.7 rWAR / 43.0 fWAR Verlander (age 31-36) 1,210 IP | 77 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 32.6 rWAR / 28.8 fWAR CC (age 23-30) 1,776 IP | 76 ERA- / 77 FIP- | 45.1 rWAR / 42.2 fWAR CC (age 31-37) 1,105 IP | 99 ERA- / 98 FIP- | 12.9 rWAR / 14.1 fWAR Hudson (age 23-30) 1,651 IP | 79 ERA- / 85 FIP- | 38.2 rWAR / 31.9 fWAR Hudson (age 31-37) 1,162 IP | 83 ERA- / 92 FIP- | 23.3 rWAR / 15.3 fWAR Hamels (age 23-30) 1,669 IP | 80 ERA- / 84 FIP- | 39.6 rWAR / 34.8 fWAR Hamels (age 31-35) 893 IP | 84 ERA- / 94 FIP- | 19.1 rWAR / 14.3 rWAR Lester (age 23-30) 1,514 IP | 82 ERA- / 87 FIP- | 34.5 rWAR / 28.4 fWAR Lester (age 31-35) 941 IP | 85 ERA- / 91 FIP- | 17.9 rWAR / 16.7 fWAR Oswalt (age 23-30) 1,622 IP | 72 ERA- / 75 FIP- | 43.6 rWAR / 40.3 fWAR Oswalt (age 31-35) 623 IP | 97 ERA- / 86 FIP- | 10.3 rWAR / 12.3 fWAR Johan (age 23-30) 1,580 IP | 66 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 49.6 rWAR / 40.4 fWAR Johan (age 31-33) 316 IP | 96 ERA- / 95 FIP- / 5.7 rWAR / 5.2 fWAR Peavy (age 23-30) 1,289 IP | 81 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 30.4 rWAR / 31.5 bWAR Peavy (age 31-35) 795 IP | 99 ERA- / 102 FIP- | 10.7 rWAR / 9.7 fWAR Sheets (age 22-29) 1,428 IP | 87 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 26.2 rWAR / 31.9 fWAR Sheets (age 30-33) 168 IP | 105 ERA- / 113 FIP- | 1.4 rWAR / 1.1 fWAR
  12. sveumrules
    Even with all the little injuries, Strasburg is still 18th in games started (222) & 17th in IP (1,346) since 2012. With a 79 ERA-/76 FIP- during that stretch he comes in at 30.6 by runs allowed based WAR (10th) & 33.3 by FIP based WAR (7th). ZIPS is projecting 1,093 IP (156 per season) & a total of 27.5 WAR (about 4 per season) over the life of the deal. I'd probably take the under on those, though Stephen's comps are largely encouraging... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nationals-couldnt-let-stephen-strasburg-leave/ "We don’t know for sure how Strasburg will age, and injuries could certainly derail the latter half of his career, but pitchers who have pitched like Strasburg have aged incredibly well. The average WAR totals for these pitchers from age-31 through age-37 was 32.1 WAR with a 28.7 WAR median, even beating the ZiPS projections." Even if the Brewers internal projections were similarly optimistic, I don't think it is remotely realistic given the financial limitations of our market/TV deal to match, much less top, this offer.
  13. sveumrules
    Hiura got 45/50 glove & 45/45 arm grades from FanGraphs prior to 2019 compared to 50/55 glove & 50/50 arm grades for Urias. Keston has played 1,945 innings all at 2B in his professional career. Urias has 2,000+ innings at SS & 500+ innings at 3B in his professional career. If one of the two were to play 3B in 2020 it looks likely that Urias would be better equipped to do so.
  14. sveumrules
    Predictions for Didi were around 3/42 (MLBTR) to 3/48 (FanGraphs). Given it's been a spendier offseason than anticipated so far it will probably take more than those figures. Since 2013 Didi has played 7,127 innings at SS (7th most in MLB), with a -12 DRS & a +12 UZR, so right around average glovework. League average wRC+ for a SS has been steadily creeping up, here is how Didi has fared vs his fellow SS since 2013... 2013: 87 LgAvg SS vs 91 Didi 2014: 87 LgAvg SS vs 75 Didi 2015: 90 LgAvg SS vs 89 Didi 2016: 92 LgAvg SS vs 97 Didi 2017: 92 LgAvg SS vs 109 Didi 2018: 97 LgAvg SS vs 122 Didi 2019: 100 LgAvg SS vs 84 Didi If Didi can get back into the 109-122 wRC+ range (Being a year healthier & AmFam Field playing friendly for LH pull power could help), I'd be fine going to 4/60 for his age 30-33 seasons with 8-12 WAR seeming like a pretty reasonable median outcome range for the deal. Didi 2017-19: 1483 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 9.8 fWAR | 8.5 bWAR Moose 2017-19: 1817 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 7.2 fWAR | 7.6 bWAR
  15. sveumrules
    Urias bat needs to be HUGELY improved to play at 3rd Exactly this...you need your corner IF positions to provide power...he can't do that, at least not enough of it. 2016 A+: (531 PAs) 330/397/440 (130 wRC+) 2017 AA: (526 PAs) 296/398/380 (124 wRC+) 2018 AAA: (533 PAs) 296/398/447 (127 wRC+) 2019 AAA: (339 PAs) 315/398/600 (137 wRC+) His MLB numbers might not be pretty so far in 300 PAs, but Urias has hit at every level of the minors while being extremely young for his league at each stop. If he's got enough arm, the bat should play at 3B, though it'd obviously be more valuable at SS or 2B.
  16. sveumrules
    Owners don't spend enough!! (Player signs for a quarter billion dollars) Players get paid too much!!
  17. sveumrules
    Archer is on the opposite end of the spectrum from guys like Guerra (3.78 ERA/4.53 FIP) & Chase (3.83 ERA/4.70 FIP), or even Davies (3.92 ERA/4.24 FIP), in that his ERA (4.31) has conistently underperformed his FIP (3.89), by the 6th largest margin of 74 pitchers with at least 500 IP since 2016. Now, if the Brewers could maybe work any potential FIP beating magic they might have on Archer, suddenly you're looking at a much more cromulent pitcher.
  18. sveumrules
    For a thirteen year stretch, from 1981-1993, Raines posted the 4th highest position player WAR behind only Henderson, Boggs & Ripken. Bout time for Simba & Marvin, both long overdue. Bummer about Sweet Lou, maybe some day.
  19. sveumrules
    From 2016-19 there were 115 pitchers in MLB who threw at least 400 innings. Guerra's ERA (3.78) outperformed his FIP (4.53) by the third largest margin in the sample. Number one? Chase Anderson with a 3.83 ERA to 4.70 FIP. Will be interesting to see if they are able to replicate that with their new clubs.
  20. sveumrules
    Not sure who “we” are, but I thought the rotation plan last year of giving the youngsters a shot was both right & necessary. Our starting pitchers ended up the season with a 99 ERA-, so essentially league average & we made the playoffs, hard for me to classify that as a huge mistake.
  21. sveumrules
    Paltry TV Contract https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ + Tiny Market https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/ = league average payroll in 2019 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2019/ Where will 2020 payroll end up? Stay tuned, I guess.
  22. sveumrules
    FanGraphs with a pretty good breakdown of the trade here, including a look at the differing framing metrics & some interesting info on Omar's batted ball profile... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-found-their-grandal-replacement/
  23. sveumrules
    Not to derail a pretty good discussion, but IMO it's a real black eye for MLB if Steve Cohen becomes a majority owner. I'd imagine many MLB/pro sports franchise owners have similarly shady dealings in their past. Maybe I'm just too cynical, but I believe the kind hearted honest billionaire is an exceedingly rare breed.
  24. sveumrules
    We have one of the worst tv contracts in baseball... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ ...likely a result of being in one of the smallest markets in all of pro sports... https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/ ...so my perspective is that having a league average payroll... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2019/ ...despite the aforementioned constraints is pretty impressive.
  25. sveumrules
    There are 183 players with at least 800 PAs in MLB between 2018-19. Of those 183 players McNeil ranks 13th in wRC+ (141) & 10th in K% (12.1). Even without plus power in the minors McNeil still ran about a 135 wRC+ while striking out a paltry 11.2% of the time. The guy can flat out hit.
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