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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    McNeil batted 311/380/442 (~135 wRC+) with an 11.2 K% in his minor league career. In the majors he has batted 321/383/513 (141 wRC+) with a 12.1 K%. He has always been a high average, low strikeout hitter. Power is often the last tool to develop, especially for players matching his profile.
  2. sveumrules
    With Alonso at first, Smith/Davis are superfluos, so they're really only trading 1/8 of their offense. Sure they can keep trying JD at 3B/LF, but he's -24 DRS in 1,100 career innings at those two spots, so probably best not to try & keep square peg round holing him. Because (even without a second pitch & a HR problem last year) Hader is thee best reliever in MLB since he debuted. There are players as good or better than McNeil (or whoever else we might get back in a possible Josh deal) on the FA market, there are none as good or better than Hader.
  3. sveumrules
    I have no issues with any of these decisions.
  4. sveumrules
    Old players are boring. The mystery of potential new players is much more exciting.
  5. sveumrules
    The Winter Meetings haven't even happened yet. There have been like five moves of any significance so far in the entire offseason & the Brewers made one of them.
  6. sveumrules
    David Laurila's Sunday Notes column leads off with Lauer this week... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-new-brewer-eric-lauer-is-a-cutter-y-craftsman-in-search-of-depth/ My guess is the Brewers have something in mind with his pitch mix they think can help unlock better results.
  7. sveumrules
    When your opponents shoot 149 for 371 (40.2%) from 3P over a ten game stretch & still lose all ten games by a combined 96 points...you might be a pretty good basketball team.
  8. sveumrules
    Woodruff/Houser/Lauer would be the only sure bets at this point, I'd imagine. Suter & Peralta would seem like the best options currently on the 40 man to fill out the last two spots unless you like any of Burnes, Faria, Guerra/Guerra, Nelson or Supak better.
  9. sveumrules
    Davies frustrated the crap out of me...nibble, nibble, nibble(go to 3-0), then groove a fast(if you can call it that)ball and get tattooed. If he didn't have his control, he was useless, and that happened way too much...especially down the stretch this last year. I'm not sad to see him go, at all. Except that isn’t what usually happened, or his career ERA wouldn’t be under 4 Davies in September 2019... 5 GS | 4-1 | 23.1 IP | 6 ER | 2.31 ERA | .169/.222/.277 batting line allowed
  10. sveumrules
    Davies has definitely been the best player in this deal through 11/27/2019. He is also the oldest, most expensive & has the least years of team control remaining of any player in the deal.
  11. sveumrules
    That's fair. It's certainly a judgement call. I guess I was just never a big Ozzie guy. He always had a knack for timely hits, but I always saw him as a terrific defender who simply had a good enough bat to stay in the lineup. I mean, I know there is much more to offensive success than power, batting average and OPS, but when you look at Ozzie's career numbers in those areas, they don't scream HOF to me. So when I hear the argument that Omar shouldn't be in the HOF, Ozzie is the first guy I always think of. I think Ozzie & Omar are comparable in a fashion similar to the way that Rickey & Raines were comparable. The difference is that Rickey was an inner circle great (111.2 WAR), so Raines' 69.4 WAR looked kind of shoddy by comparison, whereas Ozzie (76.9 WAR) is around the same neighborhood as Raines, so his inferior same styled counterpart Omar ends up down on the borderline (45.6 WAR).
  12. sveumrules
    The Ozzie/Omar comparison is a pretty straightforward WAR breakdown. Ozzie = 10,778 PAs @ 87 OPS+ = -117 batting runs Omar = 12,013 PAs @ 82 OPS+ = -244 batting runs Ozzie was a slightly better (less bad?) hitter, over many fewer plate appearances, so his WAR is not penalized as much as Omar's, because he made considerably less outs at the plate. Base running Ozzie comes in at +102 compared to only +8 for Vizquel, this seems fairly intuitive considering Ozzie went (580 SB / 148 CS, 167 GDP) compared to (404 SB / 167 CS, 207 GDP) for Omar. Fielding metrics from those days are obviously far from perfect, but based on the best estimates available we have Ozzie saving 239 runs on defense compared to only 129 for Omar. Even if you think they were closer in value as fielders, Ozzie was a far superior offensive player across the board, which accounts for double the WAR difference (+221 runs on offense) than does the fielding element (+110 runs).
  13. sveumrules
    IF we were to sign Didi & Moose, clearly a big IF, we could end up with a lineup something like this (with extremely back of the envelope possible median 2020 wRC+ ranges)... Cain (95-105 wRC+) Yelich (165-175 wRC+) Hiura (125-135 wRC+) Moose (105-115 wRC+) Braun (105-115 wRC+) Didi (100-110 wRC+) Grisham (95-105 wRC+) Manny (85-95 wRC+) That's a pretty nice/deep lineup with one truly elite guy in Yelich, a budding superstar in Hiura, two really solid veteran run producers in Moose/Braun, two positive regression candidates in Lorenzo/Didi, a young guy that should be solid with a lot of potential upside in Grisham & then Pina, a really good defensive catcher who hits about average for the position.
  14. sveumrules
    FanGraphs splits go back to 2002. During that time NL 7th hole hitters have posted league average wRC+ marks between 85 & 93. Last year it was 89. Manny's wRC+ the last three years has ranged from 86 to 95.
  15. sveumrules
    I've always thought a tournament between the non playoff teams to determine the #1/2 picks would be an interesting idea. Think it would all but eliminate outright tanking & raise the floor of the league considerably. Sure, you might have teams in the 7/8/9 range trying to lose at the end of the season to get in the draft pick playoffs instead of the championship playoffs, but that sounds better to me than multiple teams tanking entire seasons at a time. Also think they should incorporate a 1 on 1 tournament somehow for All Star Weekend. Maybe top 4 or 8 vote getters are seeded, then the two who make it to the final get to be captains with winner picking first?
  16. sveumrules
    I believe the Braves & White Sox are the only teams that have signed anybody of note so far, so I guess that means 28 other GMs haven't gauged the market either?
  17. sveumrules
    Grandal had the 2nd most HR, the 2nd most doubles & had the 2nd highest isolated slugging among all catchers in 2019. Combine that with the most walks & plate appearances & he produced the most batting runs (17.7) among all 2019 catchers. If you were disappointed by the best hitting catcher in the league in 2019, you are about as close to guaranteed as it gets to be disappointed by the Brewers 2020 catchers batting line.
  18. sveumrules
    RBIs get written off because they are largely opportunity dependent, but certain hitters are better at converting those opportunities than others & Abreu is quite possibly thee best at it. Since his debut in 2014, 133 batters have hit with at least 1,500 runners on base. Jose's RBI% of 18.47 ranks second behind only Nolan Arenado (19.22%). The only other guys over 18% are Daniel Murphy (18.37) & Charlie Blackmon (18.11).
  19. sveumrules
    Walker had 8,030 PAs with a 141 OPS+ which by BRef's calculations works out to 420 batting runs. Dave Winfield had 12,358 PAs, but only managed 416 batting runs. Rod Carew 10,550 PAs/403 batting runs. Tony Gwynn 10,232 PAs/403 batting runs. Eddie Murray 12,817 PAs/392 batting runs. Even with 2,000-4,000+ fewer plate appearances, Larry still managed to provide more value with his bat than a number of first ballot selections. He was also a superior defender & baserunner when compared to the four players above who he also outhit. Outproducing multiple first ballot Hall of Famers in considerably less playing time makes Walker even more deserving in my eyes, but then again I'm not a Baseball Writer of America, so what do I know?
  20. sveumrules
    The rule as I understand it is 3 batters or the end of the inning, so Claudio (or any other reliever) can still pitch to only 1 or 2 batters in an outing.
  21. sveumrules
    Rendon would be awesome, but I'd imagine we end up with something closer to Didi, Moose, one of Lyles/Pomeranz, a catcher & some pitching flyers.
  22. sveumrules
    My rankings: 1. Cream 2. Grey 3. Pinstripe 4. Navy
  23. sveumrules
    So by fWAR, they are equally deserving, but since the coin flipped Belli instead of Yeli the writers are idiots? Sure, Christian was a better hitter & baserunner. But Cody played more games, was a more versatile/better defender by all of Outs Above Average (7 vs -4 & this doesn't account for throwing in the OF or his time at 1B), UZR (+9.8 vs +1.9) & DRS (+26 vs -1), plus his team won more games, which has always been important to voters. I'd say both were about equally deserving, but given how these things have historically turned out it was pretty obvious this would be the most likely outcome. That it was somewhat close is actually a sign of the writers evolving a little & I think a lot more thought is put into it now than even ten years ago. Ryan Howard finished 2nd in 2008 voting with 1.8 WAR (but 46 HR & 146 RBI!!) while Chase Utley put up 9.0 WAR on the same team but only finished 14th.
  24. sveumrules
    Will be curious to see if the Braves will be able to figure out a way to keep Big Willie fresh through the second half. In his five full seasons as a reliever he has posted first half ERAs of... 3.09, 1.87, 2.12, 1.23, 1.98 compared to second half ERAs of.... 4.91, 3.64, 4.24, 4.18, 3.72
  25. sveumrules
    Pretty sure they have to file in every state they play in throughout the season... https://deadspin.com/lets-take-a-look-at-andrew-mccutchens-pay-stub-1706188663
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