sveumrules

bWAR has it... Higuera (30.3) Sheets (25.6) Bosio (18.6) Wegman (17.8) Caldwell (17.3) Haas (15.7) Slaton (15.5) Gallardo (15.3) fWAR has it... Sheets (31.9) Higuera (26.7) Haas (20.9) Bosio (20.5) Gallardo (17.5) Caldwell (16.2) Wegman (13.7) Slaton (13.5) Who do you believe the WAR calculations are over/undervaluing & why? When two WAR's tell different stories doesn't that pretty much sum up the problem with WAR in general? I don't believe so, since they are trying to communicate two different things, the results should be different. bWAR is based on runs allowed with an adjustment made for team defense, while fWAR is based on FIP so only strikeouts, walks and home runs are taken into account since those are the three outcomes pitchers exert the most control over. Both WARs are telling the same general story though, Higuera & Sheets are the best, then there is a grouping of six pitchers who provided relatively similar value, how you want to order those six pitchers could be argued in any number of ways. Here are all the pitchers listed above with their career Brewers IP then ERA-/FIP- marks, which is essentially what bWAR/fWAR distill to one number. WAR is not perfect, but it is the best stat I know of to use as a starting point when comparing players from different eras. Which stat do you believe does a better job? Sheets | 1428 IP | 87/81 | ERA-/FIP- Higuera | 1380 IP | 86/85 | ERA-/FIP- Haas | 1542 IP | 103/96 | ERA-/FIP- Bosio | 1190 IP | 93/89 | ERA-/FIP- Gallardo | 1289 IP | 93/91 | ERA-/FIP- Caldwell | 1605 IP | 97/104 | ERA-/FIP- Wegman | 1482 IP | 98/105 | ERA-/FIP- Slaton | 2025 IP | 104/110 | ERA-/FIP-

Some recent catchers & their age 31-34 WAR totals per Bref... McCann 5.5 Suzuki 5.6 Yadi 9.6 Martin 11.9 Obviously the attrition rate is high at catcher, but I think 8 WAR would be a pretty fair median projection for the next 4 years of Yaz. I think a 3/51 offer for Yaz & 2/22 for Moose (maybe with a 3rd year vesting option), especially if offered early in FA after both have had looong winters recently, could get it done & be solid deals for all parties.

I think this is proof that WAR is indeed NOT the best stat. bWAR has it... Higuera (30.3) Sheets (25.6) Bosio (18.6) Wegman (17.8) Caldwell (17.3) Haas (15.7) Slaton (15.5) Gallardo (15.3) fWAR has it... Sheets (31.9) Higuera (26.7) Haas (20.9) Bosio (20.5) Gallardo (17.5) Caldwell (16.2) Wegman (13.7) Slaton (13.5) Who do you believe the WAR calculations are over/undervaluing & why?

I think it is just readily assumed the Yankees would just outbid us or make us massively overpay. They have money and no clear replacement that I am aware of. Considering the dismal market I can't imagine they let Didi go for some acceptable amount we would be willing to pay. Gleyber came up at SS & played about half of 2019 there, so Yanks could always give him the spot if they don't want to pay Didi & they'd still have DJ/Urshela for 2B/3B with Andujar also due back at some point in 2020.

2008 was such a fun summer. I was so excited when we traded for CC that I immediately went on stubhub to buy tickets for his first start, only to realize after buying them we already had tickets for the game in our 20 pack. Who makes your Mt. Rushmore of Brewers pitchers? Higuera, Sheets & CC seem like an obvious first three, but the fourth face is a little trickier. Fingers had one epic year, but Plesac & even Hader have provided similar or greater value out of the pen. Vuke won CY, while guys like Haas, Caldwell, Bosio, Slaton & Yo had solid runs too, but none of them seem quite worthy of the last spot. I think I go with Nieves for now until we get another no-no with Hader in line to replace him with another couple two tree years as the best reliever in MLB.

Or maybe all the Ivy League educated GMs believe that even the very best relievers are incredibly volatile & therefore not worth overpaying for (unless you are selling out to win your first WS in a century plus).

Has to be a 13 pitcher, 13 position player split. With 13 pitchers, 12 position players kinda the new normal most teams 26th spot will be an additional position player.

Mike Trout played in the big leagues in 2011, had 123 at bats hit .220 with 5 HRs... OBP .281 SLG .390 OPS .672 OPS+ 89 A sample as small as 75 plate appearances is completely meaningless when you have years of scouting reports & elite minor league performance already established. Lux wRC+ | A+: 147 AA: 147 AAA: 188 Hiura wRC+ | A+: 156 AA: 116 AAA: 155 Trout wRC+ | A+: 117 AA: 156 AAA: 179 Gavin also has superior BB/K rates, is a better defender & younger compared to Keston.

I would, because Lux is likely to provide more surplus value over the next six years than Hader will over the next four. 3,600 plate appearances + 7,500 innings in the field give a player much more opportunity to add value than do 300 of even the highest leverage relief innings.

Brinson (60 FV, 55 million), Harrison (55 FV, 46 million), Diaz (50 FV, 28 million) & Yamamoto (40 FV, 1 million) combined for a median projected surplus value of about 130 million. Yelich had five years left so a reasonable projection would have been around 20 WAR pre-breakout, about 140-150 million if you assume the price of a win was around 7-7.5 million a couple years ago. The big difference is even the most optimistic projection for Hader would only be about 10 WAR over the next four years.

Everyone knows the Cubs drastically overpaid by giving up Torres for Chapman. Was it foolish? I don't know, they won the World Series. Maybe without that trade they win more, though. Who knows? What I think I know is that the Dodgers won't drastically overpay for any single player because their front office likely believes doing so to be foolish. Why repeat mistakes made by inferior teams that, while successful in the short term, likely had a negative long term impact?

Braun is owed 20 million in salary/buyout for 2020. What would he get as a free agent 1/5, maybe 1/8? The value seems right in line with reality to me, especially if they are assigning a further negative dollar value for the NTC, which I'd imagine they take into account. Even if Lux is only a 2B, he is a younger Hiura with better defense. How much is that worth? The Dodgers know more about him than any other team, so they are likely the most bullish on him, just like they were with Urias, Pederson, Seager, Bellinger & Buehler before him as highly ranked prospects whose pre-Arby years were too valuable to the Tax Capped Dodgers for them to find a suitable trade package in return.

Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers. Surplus value is not meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Both the links upthread discuss the methodology & front offices perform their own proprietary versions of the same exercise to aid in determining the values of prospects in their & other team's systems. Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen & Jose LeClerc were all as good or better than Hader in 2018, how did they do in 2019? Look at the top 10 relievers in 2017, how did they do in 2019. Relievers, even elite ones, carry just as much if not more risk than elite position prospects with a broad range of across the board skills like Lux.

The 55-80 million surplus value estimation range for Lux already has the risk baked into it... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though... Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries) Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.

Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology. Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value. Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value. The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers. Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.

I saw Orlando Arcia walking down Wisconsin Avenue today, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

Three years of Gavin Lux at league minimum pre-Arby salaries is even more valuable to the Dodgers than it is to other teams given their Luxury Tax situation. I don't think the Dodgers would entertain dealing Dustin May, Will Smith or Kelbert Ruiz for Hader for the same reason, even if they are just prospects or recently graduated.

That's pretty much the exact type of package I think it's going to take to pry Hader away from Milwaukee. That's a couple surefire blue chip prospects. Lux is MLB ready and there's a strong chance that Gray will be sometime in 2020. It would be interesting to find out if the Dodgers value Lux and Seager the same way. I'd be stoked to have either one of those guys. Seager has less team control, costs more & has a pretty long injury history for a 25 year old. Lux is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, I don't believe the Dodgers value them similarly at all. I think six seasons (three at league minimum salaries) of an elite up the middle position prospect carries more value than four Arby seasons of an elite one pitch reliever, so Lux is probably off the table completely. Seager/Gray (or other comparable prospect) is much more realistic than Lux/Gray, in my estimation.

Kapler, plus the pitching/hitting coaches & head/assistant trainers, fired in Philly.

Can't imagine too many Pirates fans are pumped for tonight's Glasnow/Cole match up.

Not your imagination... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/10/05/the-case-against-pitching-on-short-rest-in-mlb-playoffs/ Article is from 2016, but the lede is... Since 1995, the first year the wild-card format was used in the playoffs, 77 pitchers have started 121 playoff games on three days or fewer of rest, resulting in a combined 35-40 record with a 4.35 ERA. Considering teams usually use their ace in this way during the postseason, those results are not very encouraging.

From 2012-17 Manny & Buck's Orioles won the 6th most games in MLB & made the postseason three times (lost the WC, DS & CS once each), so they've had some success together. Showalter is pretty well regarded around the league, too, so it's not like they'd just be hiring him on Machado's recommendation. Cool to see Loretta's name popping up on the Managerial Hot Stove this offseason, hopefully he gets a shot somewhere.

Would love it if they put a Chotchkie's in there. Now THAT place has some serious flair.

Being the worst pitching organization of the last 50 years. But hey, we're only 4th worst in the expansion era (1998-2019), making progress!!