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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    ERA is a team stat, there are many things outside of the pitcher's control which can either negatively or positively impact the results. People smarter than myself have opined that a less imperfect way to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher is via FIP, fielding independent pitching, since it measures things over which the pitcher exerts more direct control (K/BB/HR). In both 2017 & 2018 the Brewers pitchers had a FIP that was 3% better than league average (97 FIP-), so far this year it has been league average (100 FIP-). Assuming that holds or even somehow improves between now & the end of the season, I believe Hook will not get the hook, as it were.
  2. sveumrules
    Surprised the Nationals didn't just call up any random lefty from their farm to guarantee the victory.
  3. sveumrules
    I like what Williams has done to make his club more viable, but these kind of awards generally go to whoever is seen as overachieving expectations the most. Reds were expected to finish at best 4th in the Central & likely still do so. Assuming the Twins hold on for a postseason spot (& especially if they win the division) gotta imagine that Levine gets the hardware.
  4. sveumrules
    There is a really interesting comment thread with a few anecdotal bits about South Korean drinking & driving culture on this FG article from when Jung Ho got his third DUI a couple years back that makes it sound like SK used to makes Wisco look like Utah when it comes drinking & driving (though I also read they have allegedly cracked down hard since the start of 2019)... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jung-ho-kang-reportedly-denied-work-visa/ A buddy of mine in Daegu in the mid 00s got very drunk and drove home. The week before he had driven into a bongo truck and bashed the front of this car.. also drunk. When he was driving home, his hood flipped up unto his windscreen so he had to look out his window to drive to the side of the road… where there were several cops breathalyzing people. So he got caught, obviously. He blew over. They asked him if he drank beer or soju. He said beer. They put him in a cell for a few hours, gave him water and then made him blow again in the morning. He blew under. They let him go home without a charge. I also know a girl who drove into the front of a pizza shop while drunk and was found sleeping in her car. She lost her license but was not criminally charged to my knowledge. My point is.. if he got charged with DUIs in Korea as a pro baseball player, then he is out of control and probably got caught umpteen times before as well. Either that or Korea has massively improved on this issue in the last 5 years or so. Which IS possible cos that country moves fast.
  5. sveumrules
    Zavolas did also throw 70 IP at Harvard in 2018, so his workload increase isn't too extreme.
  6. sveumrules
    That was my first thought as well but the sweep of MIA was just a three game trip with no other games & the 4-1 vs ARI/SEA was a five game trip with no other games. Maybe its haven't won a road trip of six or more games all year?
  7. sveumrules
    Of that group Pina, Cain, Gamel, Arcia & Perez have all provided positive glovework, which mitigates the below average offense somewhat in the cases of Pina, Cain & Gamel, though Arcia & Perez have been so bad with the bat they've still been negative WAR guys to this point. Kind of mirrors the team as a whole somewhat, 12th in position player WAR (16.8) despite being only 15th in wRC+ (101, still around average even with all the bad seasons) on account of solid baserunning (+5.6, 11th) & defense (+13.5, 7th).
  8. sveumrules
    Not sure where you heard that, but the Cubs swept MIA 3-0 April 15-17, beat ARI 2-1 April 26-28, swept SEA 2-0 April 30-May 1 & beat WAS 2-1 May 17-19, so they have won four road series this year. Maybe they meant haven't won a road series in the last three months?
  9. sveumrules
    Kimbrel at 0-2, 5.68 ERA, -0.4 WAR, -0.59 WPA so far & is currently on the DL so some other relievers got to blow it for the Cubs tonight. Just because he has been really good in the past & cost a lot of money doesn't definitely make it a good thing for the Cubs. The Cubs may indeed have a superior lineup, rotation & pen, but their record is only one game better than our's at the moment.
  10. sveumrules
    This is a pretty good deep dive into how much (or how little) stock should be put into Catcher's ERA... https://tht.fangraphs.com/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/ Key takeaway is... Looking at catchers who had at least 2,000 matched plate appearances in both odd and even years, I have 70 catchers, and find a correlation of 0.21. This group has an average of 4,343 plate appearance in each year category, which implies that you would have a correlation of 0.50 (where half of the observed difference is skill and half is luck) when you have 16,300 matched plate appearances, about three years of fulltime catching. By comparison, Pina & Grandal have only 1,160 matched plate appearances in a single year, about 1/4 quarter of the sample needed to even get to the 0.21 correlation. If you look at Grandal with the Dodgers, where the samples were larger than we're working with this season, the results were... 2015: Yaz 3.35 | Ellis 3.37 2016: Yaz 3.72 | Ellis 3.28 2017: Yaz 3.22 | Barnes 3.74 2018: Yaz 3.37 | Barnes 3.35 Is Manny Pina a better game caller than Yasmani Grandal? I think that is a very real possibility. Is the 1.27 difference in their Catcher's ERA completely attributable to any edge Pina has as a game caller? I think that is a much less real possibility.
  11. sveumrules
    For the month (0828-0928) prior to Game 163 last year, Hader finished the season allowing 11 ER in 14 IP. He then pitched 2 scoreless IP in Game 163 & followed that up with 10 scoreless innings in the playoffs. He started this year with 9 scoreless IP before giving up 6 ER over his next 5.2 IP. He followed up that two week rough patch with 36 IP/6 ER before his most recent 5 IP skid. I think that Hader will once again bounce back & be back to his old self to close out the season. I'll say under 5 ER the rest of the way.
  12. sveumrules
    Per the StatCast leaderboards Cain has been the 16th most "unlucky" hitter this year. He has an actual average/slugging of 248/358 when his "expected" results based on the quality of his batted balls is 283/401. If he hit to his expected results he would have around a 100 wRC+ instead of his current 76 mark. His defense is still top notch & his offense should be due for a rebound. Hold.
  13. sveumrules
    I was at work & missed the game. What happened?
  14. sveumrules
    How soon we forget Neftali Feliz.
  15. sveumrules
    The expectation at the beginning of the season was that the NL Central would be a three team race between CHI, MIL & STL with the two losers maybe being able to snag a wild card, & that is exactly where we are. The odds of us leading the division wire to wire & getting out to a comfy lead like ATL or LA have done were always extremely low.
  16. sveumrules
    The numbers aren't meant to communicate that the Brewers are no worse vs LHP, they are meant to demonstrate that the sentiment of "OMG a lefty, we have no chance" are overblown. Before tonight... wRC+ vs RHP: 104 wRC+ vs LHP: 96 The Brewers have hit about 8% worse vs LHP this year, maybe after tonight it's up to 9%.
  17. sveumrules
    He is throwing BP out there man. This is not about the ER. Right. He's been throwing BP for 5 innings. What I'm saying is his true talent level & likely future results will be much more in line with the first 179 innings of his career.
  18. sveumrules
    Hader 0328-0412: 9 IP, 0 ER Hader 0415-0430: 5.2 IP, 6 ER Hader 0503-0726: 36 IP, 6 ER Hader 0730-0816: 5 IP, 6 ER Josh had a rough patch similar to his current one early in the season & bounced back just fine. Some all time classic IGT overreactions here. Has Hader been terrible for his last 5 IP? Clearly. Does that mean the league figured him out, he will never recover & we should gave traded him at the deadline? Hardly.
  19. sveumrules
    The three really good relief appearances right before the trade. Stearns doesn’t believe in the whole small sample size thing. In 95 career relief innings Pomeranz has a 2.84 ERA. The sample is larger than three outings. Also, he was available for a player the organization seemed to view as expendable.
  20. sveumrules
    That's what the Twins get for bringing in a righty.
  21. sveumrules
  22. sveumrules
    Marisnick AA age 22 | 298 PAs | 294/358/502 | 150 wRC+ Grisham AA age 22 | 283 PAs | 254/371/504 | 151 wRC+ Marisnick was also ranked 28 (BPro) 58 (MLB) 67 (BA) pre-2012; 71 (BPro) 70 (MLB) 64 (BA) pre-2013 & 65 (MLB) 79 (BA) pre-2014 because he performed throughout the minors from day one (142 wRC+ in R, 152 in A, 127 in A+). Where Grisham came in at 99 (BPro) 83 (MLB) 49 (BA) pre-2016 & 99 (BPro) pre-2017, but fell off because he never put up elite numbers (outside of BB%) until this year.
  23. sveumrules
    Playoff odds currently at... 538: 34% BPro: 31.8% FanGraphs: 29.4% BRef: 28.1% Flip a coin twice, if you call it correctly both times you just did something with a 25% probability. If you call it wrong one of the two times we are definitely missing the postseason.
  24. sveumrules
    Since June 8 (first week of June) Grandal is at... 215/366/390 with six home runs. Now if you meant first week of July he is at... 233/367/311 with zero home runs. So above .200 & still with a good OBP. On the season Grandal has a 123 wRC+ vs lefties.
  25. sveumrules
    This will be the Brewers 39th game of 120 against LH starters, 32.5% of our games. Per BRef's league splits page, 1006 of 3560 games have bern started by LHP, 28.3% of all games. Which means to this point we've seen about 5 more LH starters than an average MLB team.
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