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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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If it's probable, it shouldn't be in blue... We are .500 against all lefty starters this season, so it's not probable. Against crappy leftties (worse than league average FIP) we are 7-4. Perez, however, is right in the sweet spot of mediocrity (99 FIP- / 102 ERA-) this year. I guess they'll just have to play the actual game & see what transpires. -
Baseball America's best tools survey
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Totally agree with this take. His pitch framing and decent arm doesn’t make up for his dropped balls and passed balls, Pina is a superior C, although imo, he’s had an off year, at least compared to his previous years. Elite pitch framing compensates for all other measurable aspects of catcher defense simply because there are thousands more opportunities throughout the course of a season to frame a pitch than there are to add/lose value via blocking or throwing. Per BPro... Grandal +14.7 framing +1.0 blocking +0.2 throwing Manny +5.3 framing +0.2 blocking -0.0 throwing Now of course these are all counting stats & Yaz has three times as many innings behind the plate as Pina, so he should be higher. If you scale Manny's stats for Grandal's playing time they come out pretty even defensively, but Yaz is still 37% better with the bat, so it kind of doesn't really matter. -
Call me crazy, but I don't see Counsell firing the guy who was his head coach in college (& someone he considers a mentor) so he can bring in Clint Hurdle to tell him he needs to order his pitchers to throw at more people's heads.
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Lefties we've beat... Quintana (twice), Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Ryu, Freeland, Matz, Vargas, Caleb Smith, Brault (four times!), MadBum, Keuchel, Alex Young, Lester, Brett Anderson, Kolby Allard. Lefties who beat us... Hamels (thrice), Urias, Kershaw, Matz, Lester, Max Fried (twice), Devin Smetzler, Pomeranz (do we get this one back? hafta call the league office), MadBum, Luchessi, Logan Allen, Matt Strahm, Marco Gonzalez, Quintana (twice), Minor. By my count we are 12-15 vs "good" lefties (better than league average FIP) & 7-4 vs "bad" lefties (worse than league average FIP), for whatever that is or isn't worth.
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Of Hader's 25 appearances of 1 IP or less, 19 were 9th inning only or in extras. Going through the game logs for the other 6 games it looks like the only other time he was likely intended to go multiple innings, but didn't because he gave up runs during his first inning (besides the Dodger game mentioned) was July 1 at Cincinnati.
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Hader has 18 multi inning appearances this season, 14 of which have been clean. He has allowed a total of 5 ER over 33.1 IP for a 1.35 ERA in these appearances. Hader has 25 one inning or less appearances this season, 17 of which have been clean. He has allowed a total of 12 ER over 22 IP for a 4.91 ERA in these appearances. I think Hader's recent problems have more to do with shaky command of one pitch that maybe the league is finally figuring out after two years than it does his usage pattern.
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According to BRef the Brewers have used 98 different lineups this season (not including the pitcher) Other NL contenders at 99 (LAD), 60 (ATL), 80 (WAS), 70 (PHI), 97 (NYM), 105 (CHI), 74 (STL) & 87 (ARI), so its kinda all over the place. As for the Dead, the played a number of legendary shows at Alpine Valley...& some of their fans ever remeber some of them.
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We are 35-28 vs winning teams (compared to 26-28 against losing teams) this year, so these next 25 games could be just what they need.
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Haha, yeah, LOL might not be severe enough. But hey, their farm systems are really something!! Maybe in 3-5 years they'll merely be bad or mediocre.
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My personal breakdown would be... Juggernaut (3): LAD, HOU, NYY Good (5): ATL, TB, CLE, MIN, OAK Mediocre (8): WAS, PHI, NYM, CHC, STL, MIL, ARI, BOS Bad (7): COL, SD, SF, CIN, PIT, TEX, LAA Really Bad (5): MIA, SEA, CHW, KC, TOR LOL (2): BAL, DET
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But what did Freitas do?
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Phew, good thing this Payano guy is a righty. Might be able to maybe win this one.
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We are Lloyd Christmas. The NL Central crown is Mary Swanson. What I'm saying is...there is a chance.
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Right now WAS, NYM, PHI, CHI, STL, MIL & ARI are all between 59-63 wins, the dream scenario is they all end up with identical win totals. You would need two tiebreaker games each to determine the East/Central Champs. Then of the remaining five teams there would need to be three tiebreaker games to determine the two Wild Cards, then you could have the actual Wild Card game...like a week after the season. Give me the most baseball.
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We've had two games versus Washington's aces so far... Scherzer vs Jhoulys Strasburger vs Houser ...granted we were at home, but we won 5-3 & 6-0. Our two games against the Mets aces, both on the road, we faced DeGrom with Chase on the bump, won 10-2. Beat Thor 8-6 with Woody pitching. In one game, anything can happen. Sure if we're on the road & whoever we're playing has an ace on the hill while we have post-injury Woodruff or Chase/Gio or Lyles who we maybe never should have let go in the first place & probably isn't a splashy enough acquisition to help us get a postseason berth anyways so why are we even talking about it or a bullpen game or whatever, we'll be the underdogs... ...but we're Milwaukee Brewers fans. We're always the underdogs. Even in 2011/2018, when we won thee most games in the NL, we were the underdogs. Even after we finally win a World Series at some indeterminate point in the future, we'll still be the underdogs.
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The more I think about it, if/when MLB ever does go to an automated strike zone of some sort, the advantage will shift to hitters BIG time. Once guys know, with certainty, where their zone really is & don't have to worry about umps missing all those close pitches around the edges, especially high/low...watch out. I think swing % will fall off pretty dramatically, especially at the outset, & foul balls will increase even more (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/foul-balls-are-the-pace-of-play-problem-nobodys-talking-about) as batters hone in on their one, true zone.
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Lefties we've beat... Quintana (twice), Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Ryu, Freeland, Matz, Vargas, Caleb Smith, Brault (four times!), MadBum, Keuchel, Alex Young, Lester, Brett Anderson. Lefties who beat us... Hamels (thrice), Urias, Kershaw, Matz, Lester, Max Fried (twice), Devin Smetzler, Pomeranz (do we get this one back? hafta call the league office), MadBum, Luchessi, Logan Allen, Matt Strahm, Marco Gonzalez, Quintana (twice). By my count we are 12-14 vs "good" lefties (better than league average FIP) & 6-4 vs "bad" lefties (worse than league average FIP), for whatever that is or isn't worth. Thanks for Steven Brault, I guess.
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The guy I'm most interested to see is Emmanuel Clase, who essentially throws a 99 MPH cutter... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/emmanuel-clase-is-wondrous/
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Overrated? He's objectively the best catcher in franchise history. I don't see anyone saying he's HOF.
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If Im not mistaken the Brewers % chances have gone down like 32% from July 1. July was a killer month for us I had noted our %s a few times earlier in the thread, I think they peaked somewhere around June 3... FG: 61% 538: 73% BRef: 85% ...so like a 40-60% drop since then, depending on the source. -
2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Current Playoff Odds per... 538: 32% (15% division/17% WC) BPro: 29.5% (12.5% division/17% WC) FanGraphs: 28.6% (10.1% division/18.5% WC) BRef: 24.3% (6.6% division/17.7% WC) I'm still predicting some sort of tie that will require extra baseball to be played & am still hoping the Brewers are somehow involved in it. -
If you want to see some crazy deferrals check out the Strasburg/Scherzer contracts. Max is 7/210, but the payout structure comes out to essentially 15 million a year for 14 years. The main benefit to the team, from my limited financial understanding, is that a dollar today is theoretically worth more than a dollar in five years. So while technically 7/210, Scherzer's deal was only "worth" about 190 million with the deferrals. From the player's perspective, they're already set for life by the time they're signing a contract with any kind of deferrals, so the idea of taking less today to keep getting paid after the contract ends probably isn't that big of a deal to them.
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I know this the second game now with Grisham leading off & Hiura cleaning up, gotta figure they're the first Brewers rookies in those lineup spots since Weeks/Fielder, er no?
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Keston is currently at 51 games/208 PAs, so about one third of a season. He has hit 298/365/553 (134 wRC+) so far. I think if he hits at that level throughout his Brewer career that would be pretty cool. For reference Braun is at 297/359/532 (135 wRC+) career. His defense has come in around -3 (DRS) or -4.4 (UZR). Now obviously defense stats in a sample this small are noisy, but Keston being a -10 to -15 fielder over the course of a season was always a possibility. Add it all up & bWAR has him at 1.1 vs 1.4 over at FanGraphs (with the difference coming in the base running numbers). Over a full season that's a 3-4 WAR guy. In the future I would guess Hiura settles in slightly below his current level of offense (more of a 125-130 wRC+ guy) & slightly above his current level of defense (more of a -5 to -10 guy), which still gets him to the same spot 3-4 WAR range. Now if he somehow manages to exceed his current offensive output & get his defense to even average, you're looking at a 5+ WAR guy.
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That is a really interesting stat. I think most would agree with FIP which has Benny 19% better than league average as a Brewer compared to 8% worse than league average for Chase. At the same time... From 2016 through now there have been 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings, chase is 46th with 550 IP. Over that time Chase's FIP- of 108 ranks 85th (in the same neighborhood as Clayton Richard, Anibal Sanchez, Dylan Bundy), while his ERA- of 87 ranks 27th (in the same neighborhood as Patrick Corbin, James Paxton, Jake Arrieta). His ERA of 3.71 has outpaced his FIP of 4.60 by 0.89 runs, the largest margin in the sample (Ervin Santana -0.77 & Kyle Hendricks -0.71 are next closest). For whatever reasons certain pitchers are able to consistently outperform their peripherals & I think the sample is large enough that Chase has shown he is one of those guys. Most of this appears to be the result of him allowing a .297 wOBA with runners on base (in the same neighborhood as Gerritt Cole, MadBum, Carlos Carrasco) compared to a .325 wOBA with the bases empty (in the same neighborhood as Jason Vargas, Trevor Cahill, Dan Straily). Add it all up & by FIP based WAR Chase is 81st in MLB since becoming a Brewer (about where I think most would expect, still a solid #3), but by runs allowed based WAR he comes in 31st (a healthy #2).
