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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, if we’re breaking into buckets I’d say they struggled to score once (2 R), scored an average number of runs five times (4 or 5 R), and followed with above average games (6 R+) three times.
  2. sveumrules
    Mitchell has the tools to be someone who runs a high BABIP for sure but his .396 mark over 78 PAs this year is still bound to regress some. Only Rob Refsnyder (.394) has come close to that over 200 PAs this year with a decent sized gap down to LaMonte Wade Jr (.375), Bobby Witt Jr (.374), Donovan Solano (.372), and Aaron Judge (.369). If we raise the floor to min. 1,000 PAs during the 2022-24 timeframe Brandon Marsh is atop the leaderboard at .370 with only Riley Greene (.356), Jarren Duran (.355) and Freddie Freeman (.352) clearing a .350 mark. Double that to min. 2,000 PAs during the 2019-24 timeframe and Tim Anderson (.358) is the BABIP king with Yoan Moncada (.344), Trea Turner (.343) and Freeman again (.340) the only guys at .340 or above.
  3. sveumrules
    Can kind of get there using date range feature on the FanGraphs game logs. Just splitting the season into rough two month chunks it looks like he’s at… 0405 thru 0604 (213 PAs) 243/343/400 (120 wRC+) 12.2 BB% | 29.1 K% 0605 thru 0806 (158 PAs) 289/373/459 (141 wRC+) 12.7 BB% | 20.3 K%
  4. sveumrules
    BRef also tracks “Blowouts” (which they define as games with a 5+ run margin) on their team schedule pages. Here’s how those same dozen teams stack up… MIL (20 W - 6 L) KCR (25 W - 10 L) NYY (27 W - 12 L) PHI (26 W - 12 L) BAL (22 W - 13 L) MIN (22 W - 13 L) CLE (19 W - 11 L) ATL (19 W - 12 L) LAD (16 W - 13 L) SDP (16 W - 15 L) BOS (23 W - 22 L) ARI (20 W - 19 L) Looking at it this way the Brewers clearly have the lowest number of total blowout games, but also the highest winning percentage in such games. Only six blowout losses over 112 total games is pretty nuts all things considered.
  5. sveumrules
    Quickest and dirtiest way to look at this is probably what percentage of wins required a save? Here are the rankings for the dozen teams that have won 60 games to this point… CLE (56.7%) 67 W | 38 SV MIL (55.6%) 63 W | 35 SV LAD (53.0%) 66 W | 35 SV BAL (50.7%) 67 W | 34 SV MIN (49.2%) 63 W | 31 SV ATL (46.7%) 60 W | 28 SV ARI (45.9%) 61 W | 28 SV BOS (45.9%) 61 W | 28 SV NYY (43.3%) 67 W | 29 SV KCR (42.3%) 63 W | 27 SV SDP (41.9%) 62 W | 26 SV PHI (40.3%) 67 W | 27 SV Looks like Milwaukee has definitely had fewer comfortable wins by that methodology. CLE (+10.19) and MIL (+8.96) are also the top two teams in bullpen Win Probability Added by a wide margin over ATL in 3rd at +5.14.
  6. sveumrules
    April 7th they scored a dozen, followed that up with 8, 9, 7, 11, 11, 4 runs in their next six games. April 20th/21st they went for 12 followed by 2. May 10th/11th was 11 then 5. May 15th/17th was 10 (day off) 4. May 29th to June 1st went 10, 6, 12, 4 over a four game stretch. June 7th/8th they had a 10 then 5. So they’ve scored ten or more runs nine times this year before last night and followed those games up with 8, 11, 4, 2, 5, 4, 6, 4, and 5 runs.
  7. sveumrules
    JB Bukauskas had another three up three down inning for Nashville, now up to four scoreless frames with 2 H | 0 BB | 3 K since coming off the IL.
  8. sveumrules
    Still have my doubts that the org sees Black as a viable MLB OF at this point. He got four starts in CF and two in LF (and three at 3B) during a 13 game stretch from 0710 to 0731. Obviously an even smaller sample, but he’s started two games each at 1B/3B so far in August.
  9. sveumrules
    Nugenix Total T as endorsed by Big Hurt Frank Thomas
  10. sveumrules
    Contreras workload has been scaled back over the last month plus. Thru June 30 he started 67 of 84 games at catcher, about 80%. Since then he is at 17 of 27 games at catcher, about 63%.
  11. sveumrules
    Not sure it really is. Contreras and Hoskins have DH’ed six of ten games since Yelich’s injury. I’d imagine they’ll get a similar percentage of DH starts from here on out.
  12. sveumrules
    The Brewers rarely play their 13th position player to any significant extent, so I don’t have a problem with them using it now to get Haase through to next year as the backup catcher. OF is pretty full with Chourio, Mitchell, Perkins and Frelick. 1B/DH has Contreras, Hoskins, Bauers and Sanchez. The only place we could really improve is a better IF to help out with the struggling Turang/Ortiz duo, but not sure that player is in the system at the moment. Black is better than Haase in a vacuum sure, but I’d just keep getting him consistent reps in AAA until September because their isn’t really a regular spot in the MLB lineup for him now.
  13. sveumrules
    Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder has gotta be one of the best examples of how much the depth has increased in the Brewers system. Coming into and out of the pandemic he was making the Top 20 based on the promise he showed on the complex and in A+. Now he’s delivering on that promise with a career year in AA and he’s probably outside the Top 30.
  14. sveumrules
    The Carloses Rodriguezes reunited in Nashville.
  15. sveumrules
    Josh Timmerman maybe next in line for the bump up? Has fifty pretty successful Carolina League innings under his belt as a college draftee. 13.7 BB% could use some trimming, and he's not gonna keep that 0.00 HR9 forever, but otherwise looks like a pretty good promotion candidate.
  16. sveumrules
    Some DSL pitching performances of note... Carlos Carra 4.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 2 BB | 6 K Idalberto Santiesteban 2.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 1 BB | 2 K Ayendy Bravo 4.0 IP | 1 ER | 2 H | 2 BB | 3 K Ranwell Smith 1.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 2 BB | 1 K Josue "Holy" Toledo 4.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 3 BB | 3 K Lonell Downs 4.0 IP | 1 ER | 1 H | 3 BB | 6 K
  17. sveumrules
    Is this a DSL GameDay mirage I'm seeing, or is this real life?? A 4 W - 0 L day on the island?
  18. sveumrules
    Someone posted a graphic recently with whole organization win percentage from the rookie leagues on up to MLB this year and they were in the bottom couple few spots on that too. I was looking at the team leaders for position players 26 and under this year and the White Sox are 30th with -1.9 WAR. They are also capped at the #10 pick in the draft next year with the new Draft Lottery stipulations.
  19. sveumrules
    THRU 30 Trout (6159 PA) 176 OPS+ | 82.3 WAR Mantle (7202 PA) 176 OPS+ | 90.7 WAR Mays (5961 PA) 159 OPS+ | 76.9 WAR Griffey (7319 PA) 148 OPS+ | 76.2 WAR Aaron (7216 PA) 157 OPS+ | 80.7 WAR AFTER 30 Mays (6536 PA) 153 OPS+ | 79.3 WAR Aaron (6725 PA) 152 OPS+ | 62.4 WAR Mantle (2708 PA) 159 OPS+ | 19.6 WAR Griffey (3985 PA) 114 OPS+ | 7.6 WAR Trout (488 PA) 132 OPS+ | 3.7 WAR (6 years | $223M left) Had to put Hank in there too even though he was a RF, pretty insane that he and Willie each had two separate HOF careers. I’d already have Trout ahead of Griffey because his peak was higher, but hopefully he can find a few years of health over the next half decade to at least finish in the realm of Mantle’s regular season career totals.
  20. sveumrules
    Here is the MLB team leaderboard this year for position players in their age 26 or younger season. Brewers are at 2,200 PA (4th) | 9.0 BB% (5th) | 20.1 K% (8th) | 0.44 BB/K (3rd) | .262 AVG (6th) | .121 ISO (30th) | +8.1 BsR (4th) | +13.7 DEF (4th) | 10.6 WAR (3rd) That’s a bunch of fast, plus defending, good plate discipline having, base hit getting youngsters providing a whole lot of value for a first place team . Only thing missing is power production, but that’s got nowhere to go but up.
  21. sveumrules
    Nice dive. Overall I think the system is pretty flush with young positional talent across all the levels… MLB: Contreras, Chourio, Mitchell, Turang, Perkins. Frelick, Ortiz (obviously not all drafted but part of having a strong farm and developing good MLB players is you can trade them or just identify an overlooked guy like Perkins and get him for free) AA/AAA: Black, Quero, Wilken, Boeve A/A+: Adams, Pratt, Yophery, Areinamo, Baez, Lara Rook: Bitonti, Adamczewski, Made, Peña, Anderson, Ortuno And even after that there’s still a bunch of intriguing guys like O’Rae and Fillipo who have been aggressively promoted, EBJ who has struggled and dealt with injury. Hicklen and Carlos Rodriguez and EMJ who have been hitting at the upper levels, Payne and Burke from the most recent draft.
  22. sveumrules
    Good breakdown. Brice has struggled extra hard the last month with a 153/207/165 (6 wRC+) line over 93 PA since July 4th. I’d start by putting him back at the bottom of the order so at least he isn’t killing us out of the leadoff spot. Ortiz should be down there with him too at 148/242/197 (25 wRC+) over 69 not so nice PAs during that same stretch. I’d probably try a lineup like this (with PAs and wRC+ since July 4th)… Contreras (99 PA | 99 wRC+) Chourio (95 PA | 139 wRC+) Mitchell (60 PA | 146 wRC+) Adames (103 PA | 132 wRC+) Hoskins (86 PA | 128 wRC+) Bauers (42 PA | 106 wRC+) Perkins (49 PA | 116 wRC+) Ortiz (69 PA | 25 wRC+) Turang (93 PA | 6 wRC+) I’d try to play Monasterio (30 PA | 72 wRC+) every fourth game or so for each of Ortiz/Turang until they start to show some life. Rotate Frelick (78 PA | 94 wRC+) in with Perkins every three and Mitchell every four games to keep everyone fresh. Get Haase (27 PAs | 189 wRC+) and Sanchez (17 PAs | 139 wRC+) in at catcher to rest Contreras every third game and the DH mix as needed based on matchups.
  23. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board. Think there are a couple things holding Patrick back from getting the MLB call right now. First is that he isn’t on the 40 Man roster yet. Believe the Brewers will have to add him in the offseason or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. Second is that while his 2.68 ERA is no doubt impressive in the crazy offensive environs of the International League, his 4.14 FIP and 4.59 xFIP suggest he’s probably been somewhat lucky with regards to run prevention. Definitely an intriguing rotation option & one the Brewers obviously targeted in trade, but we likely won’t find out what they really think of him until the Rule 5 protection deadline.
  24. sveumrules
    Yoho's already had two TJs and still has pretty limited experience pitching as a recently converted position player. If they were to try and move him into a starting role I'd guess it would still be at least a couple two tree years down the road to give him a chance to build up his inning counts as he only had 40 IP last year and is at 43 IP so far this year.
  25. sveumrules
    Big difference between 2022 and this year is that after 111 games in 2022 the Brewers were already 1.5 games back of STL. This year they will be 4.5 or 5.5 games ahead depending how tonight goes.
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