sveumrules

Not a perfect one for one, but I'd say Brewers equivalent package is something like... Teel = Quero (upper level C) Meidroth = Boeve (upper level hit tool 3B) Montgomery = Payne/Yophery (lil younger, but our highest rated OF prospects) Gonzalez = Wichrowski (big stuff at AA)

Meidroth should be an opening day guy for the White Sox, Teel should probably start back in AAA with a midseason call up, Gonzalez should open at AAA and will likely break MLB at some point this year if healthy so three of the guys are on the cusp. Montgomery was their first round pick this year out of Texas A&M. Looks like he didn't play after the draft so probably open at A+ and finish around AA/AAA depending how things shake out.

Small early season samples and all that, but Brook is at +0.8 pts/100 on defense so far this year after being -6.2 last year and -8.5 two years ago so stats prove you right. AJG is -4.2 pts/100 on defense so far this year and AJJ is at -6.4 so the young guys have been making a big impact on that end of the floor along with AJG rocking a nifty .697 TS% shooting the ball.

Jonathan Mayo reporting the White Sox will take Shane Smith with the 1st pick.

Cool for Shane to get a potential express lane to MLB. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP the last two years he has some pretty impressive rankings… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th)

ORL is #3 in the East so far and Paolo Banchero has only played five games. They entered the game with the best defense in the NBA allowing only 103.3 PPG. Granted they were without Franz Wagner tonight too so it would have been nice to have a little easier win, but the young hungry rookie contract team gave the old max contract guys a run for their money so the “these games matter” intention of the Emirates Cup was fulfilled.

The interesting comp for Eovaldi is Freddy. Stats are from 2021-24 with rankings in parentheses among 133 starting pitchers with at least 300 IP over that stretch... Eovaldi (606 IP | 26th) 104 K+ (54th) | 69 BB+ (18th) | 94 HR+ (49th) 88 ERA- (40th) | 86 FIP- (34th) | 111 GB+ (25th) 12.1 rWAR (28th) | 11.9 fWAR (20th) Freddy (558 IP | 37th) 132 K+ (7th) | 104 BB+ (111th) | 97 HR+ (59th) 82 ERA- (27th) | 86 FIP- (34th) | 119 FB+ (17th) 12.9 rWAR (21st) | 11.4 fWAR (21st) They get there a little different ways - Eovaldi with control and groundballs, Freddy with strikeouts and flyballs - but the FIPs are identical and the overall value is about as close as it gets. With Freddy being six years younger and $34M cheaper over the next two years that is some pretty nice surplus value. Here is how Max Fried stacks up among those same 133 starting pitchers with at least 300 IP from 2021-24... Fried (603 IP | 29th) 104 K+ (54th) | 72 BB+ (28th) | 60 HR+ (3rd) 68 ERA- (3rd) | 77 FIP- (12th) | 126 GB+ (6th) 17.8 rWAR (4th) | 13.9 fWAR (10th) The only two pitchers in the sample with a lower ERA- than Max are Woodruff (65) and Ohtani (67), so no healthy pitcher has been better at preventing runs over the last four years. He doesn't strike anybody out, but the combination of excellent control with elite home run suppression and ground ball induction has been a successful (and lucrative) one for him.

Cobb is just a way better pitcher than Rea. 22-24 Cobb (317 IP) 91 ERA- | 84 FIP- 4.8 rWAR | 5.8 fWAR 23-24 Rea (292 IP) 104 ERA- | 114 FIP- 3.3 rWAR | 1.7 fWAR 2025 Cobb Steamer 127 IP of 3.69 ERA 2025 Rea Steamer 135 IP of 4.72 ERA

Welcome to the board! The Hoskins being from Sacto angle definitely makes the idea a little more plausible, but the A's already having Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom for DH/1B probably means its still a pretty big longshot.

They definitely have the minor league depth to trade for him, but I'm not so sure the Ricketts would pony up to extend him beyond his one year of remaining team control.

One year actually. Projected for $16M in Arby's then hitting free agency. If he hits around his projections this year (148 wRC+ | 5.5 WAR) he'll be entering free agency at age 29 with a wRC+ north of 140 for his career and something like 26-27 WAR. Should be the next $300M man.

There definitely is. Jack Flaherty, Ian Happ and Lucas Giolito all allegedly were pushing for Harry Marino (who helped minor leaguers into the union) to replace Bruce Meyer (who led talks for the 2022 CBA). Some even characterized it as an "attempted coup" or "mutiny attempt". All three were replaced as player reps on the 2024 MLBPA subcommittee. Apparently Tony Clark's contract runs through 2027.

Yup. MLBPA believes the market system gets their players the most money.

Yeah, Ortiz should pass Burnes in on-field value provided sometime this year with team control running through 2029… Ortiz 2024 2.7 bWAR | 3.1 fWAR Burnes 2024 3.4 bWAR | 3.7 fWAR | 4.4 rWAR Anything Hall turns in is essentially gravy at this point

Was curious how Soto's production compared with some of his predecessors leading up to their respective MegaDeals, so here they are in reverse chronological order. Age in parentheses is for the first year of the contract... 2025 Soto (Age 26: 15/765) 4,088 PAs | 158 wRC+ | 36.3 WAR 216 BB+ | 77 K+ | 115 AVG+ | 149 ISO+ 2024 Devers (Age 27: 10/313.5) 3,614 PAs | 123 wRC+ | 21.4 WAR 96 BB+ | 92 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 136 ISO+ 2023 Judge (Age 31: 9/360) 3,161 PAs | 163 wRC+ | 35.4 WAR 180 BB+ | 130 K+ | 114 AVG+ | 180 ISO+ 2023 Turner (Age 30: 11/300) 3,737 PAs | 124 wRC+ | 32.9 WAR 81 BB+ | 83 K+ | 120 AVG+ | 110 ISO+ 2022 Lindor (Age 28: 10/341) 4,034 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 34.6 WAR 101 BB+ | 68 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 116 ISO+ 2022 Seager (Age 28: 10/325) 2,710 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 21.9 WAR 106 BB+ | 87 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 120 ISO+ 2021 Mookie (Age 28: 12/365) 3,875 PAs | 136 wRC+ | 37.6 WAR 123 BB+ | 61 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 131 ISO+ 2020 Yelich (Age 28: 9/215) 4,043 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 31.7 WAR 130 BB+ | 100 K+ | 117 AVG+ | 115 ISO+ 2019 Trout (Age 27: 12/426.5) 4,673 PAs | 171 wRC+ | 63.4 WAR 184 BB+ | 106 K+ | 120 AVG+ | 170 ISO+ 2019 Harper (Age 26: 13/330) 3,957 PAs | 140 wRC+ | 28.6 WAR 175 BB+ | 104 K+ | 108 AVG+ | 149 ISO+ 2019 Machado (Age 26: 10/300) 4,074 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 29.8 WAR 90 BB+ | 80 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 127 ISO+ 2015 Giancarlo (Age 25: 13/325) 2,640 PAs | 145 wRC+ | 21.7 WAR 148 BB+ | 148 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 185 ISO+ 2001 A-ROD (Age 25: 10/252) 3,515 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 35.0 WAR 94 BB+ | 110 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 154 ISO+

Yeah, depending how things shake out a potential Devin trade could be a two birds one stone kind of thing too if it brings back an MLB ready infielder or starting pitcher. I think the easiest fill is Tyler Black into the vacated Bauers role. Would also be fine dealing for a guy like Brandon Lowe from TBR to fill that spot. Would like to see someone brought in to improve on Monasterio. Nothing fancy, Brandon Rodgers is a proven lefty crusher and shouldn’t cost too much as a Turang platoon partner. Have to imagine they’ll sign some random SP they like on a one year deal for depth/competition. Replacing Adames is definitely the hard one. I don’t really like any of the options that have been floated. Josh Smith from TEX would probably be my first choice since he’s younger, has a nice DRS at 3B and showed some signs of life with the bat last year. Depending on the medicals Kim could be an option too on a one plus one Hoskins kind of deal.

Angelos sold the team last year. New owners traded for Burnes and bumped OD payroll by $32M in their first season so they’ve shown some signs of being a bit more aggressive.

Just for fun, since they all came up, here is a quick comparison between Taylor, Siri, and Perkins. Age in parentheses is for the 2025 season. 2021-24 Taylor (Age 31) 1,264 PA | 2,794 inn. 63 BB+ | 104 K+ | 99 wRC+ 97 AVG+ | 121 ISO+ +27 DRS | +14 FRV +8.0 BsR | 5.6 WAR 1.55 WAR / 350 PA +7.25 DRS / 750 inn. 2022-24 Siri (Age 29) 1,137 PA | 2,669 inn. 77 BB+ | 158 K+ | 86 wRC+ 85 AVG+ | 123 ISO+ +19 DRS | +41 FRV +7.4 BsR | 6.3 WAR 1.94 WAR / 350 PA +11.52 FRV / 750 inn. 2023-24 Perkins (Age 28) 602 PA | 1,357 inn. 128 BB+ | 114 K+ | 85 wRC+ 94 AVG+ | 64 ISO+ +19 DRS | +17 FRV +3.2 BsR | 2.6 WAR 1.51 WAR / 350 PA +10.50 DRS / 750 inn. Obviously what they all have in common is they can go and get it on the grass and they're all plus baserunners too. Tyrone isn't quite as elite afield as the other two, but he makes up for it by being the best hitter of the bunch with a minuscule walk rate his only real performance flaw. Perkins and Siri are more comparable as GG calibre center fielders, with Blake bringing walks and some singles to the plate (but no pop) while Jose is a 1.5TO guy with the massive K rate and power that is more plus than truly top end (but no hits or walks to back it up). Anyway, back on topic, with Montas and Holmes joining Senga and Peterson as holdovers in the Mets rotation they should have room for one more addition. Have to imagine they splurge towards the top of the market for one of Burnes, Fried or Flaherty to round things out, though Stearns loves his flexibility so another calculated dice roll can't be entirely ruled out. Apparently Sasaki has the same agent as Senga too, so they might have the best shot of landing him among East Coast clubs.

Congrats to Willy, well deserved. Ended up getting $5M more than Dansby.

Why would signing a free agent RP who the Mets envision as an SP make trading an IF for an OF more realistic?

Baty has -9 DRS | -3 OAA | -1 FRV at 3B over 1,281 innings in MLB, not sure he is a natural there.

That 085/317/106 career triple slash is amazing. Out of 1,438 players with at least 50 PAs since 2016, Juan Soto is 2nd with an 18.8 BB% trailing only Colin Walsh and his 23.8 BB%. Colin's 33.2 Swing% is also the lowest in the sample among position players (seven pitchers swung less often) just fractions below Danny Vogelbach at 33.8%.

Baty has -9 DRS career at 3B. His OAA of -3 and FRV of -1 are a little closer to neutral, but I'm guessing the Brewers wouldn't view fielding metrics like those as an easy fit at 3B with the emphasis they place on run prevention.

Based on Polanco’s metrics at 2B/SS I doubt the Brewers would consider him a viable 3B. His K rate has gone from 15.5 in 2020, to 18.3 in 2021, to 21.3 in 2022, to 25.7 in 2023 to 29.2 in 2024. That’s more than just one bad year at Safeco.

BRef has him down for 0.0 WAR with us, but FanGraphs had him at 0.3 rWAR | 0.5 fWAR. His first nine starts with the Brewers he put up a 3.55 ERA over 50 IP before blowing up for 7 ER in 2.2 IP in his tenth start. He really only had one terrible start as a Brewer that torpedoed his numbers. His steamer projection is for 1.8 WAR over 155 IP. so something like 3.0 to 3.5 WAR over the next two years, which is right in line with his contract. Stearns and the Mets likely believe they can coax even more than that out of him similar to what they did with Severino and Manaea last year.