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Biloxi went blue dot city top of five with a Mike Boeve single, Darrien Miller HBP and Connor Scott walk loading em up for the Lamar Sparks grand slam. 5 to 0 Shuckers through five with Kuehner up to 10 K now.

Rob Z with a 27 pitch rehab inning. Worked around a single and two walks to put up a zero (1 K).

Filippo Di Turi leadoff walk, perfect game averted. Now for that hit…

If I mention the Mudcats have gone twenty one up twenty one down on the internet they’ll stop doing that, right? Anthony Flores has thrown two more scoreless hitless frames with 1 BB | 2 K while Brailin Rodriguez also went 1.1 scoreless hitless with 1 BB | 3 K.

Wisco leading 6 to 4 bottom of four with Will Rudy trying to work out of a two on one out jam. Cooper Pratt with a single, double and run scored so far while Felix Valerio has walked twice, stolen a bag, and both scored & “driven” in a run. Jesus Chirinos also has one each in the hit, walk, run scored and RBI columns.

Shuckers picked up the lone run of the game so far top of two on a Lamar Sparks double, Ethan Murray HBP, Casey Martin single sequence. Tate Kuehner has gone four scoreless with 1 H | 3 BB | 8 K so far.

Lotsa similarities (dominant defense, bullpen and RISP), but also a couple decent sized differences between the Brewers and Guardians this year. For as bad as many think the Brewers rotation might be with a 101 ERA- (14th) and 7.6 rWAR (16th), the Guardians rotation actually has been that bad and then some with a 114 ERA- (27th) and 4.4 rWAR (27th). Brewers offense has also been a scooch better with a 109 wRC+ (9th) and 4.89 R/G (7th) versus a 102 wRC+ (13th) and 4.65 R/G (12th) for the Guardians. Royals & Twins both went 12 W - 1 L against the White Sox, but Guardians are only 5 W - 5 L so far. Not cashing in on all those free wins could be a huge swing if Cleveland ends up losing the division. Twins kind of control their own destiny with eight games left against the Guardians, but are O W - 5 L against CLE in their first five meetings so are gonna need to close it out strong. The Royals have fared better against CLE at 4 W - 2 L, but have come up short head to head against MIN at 2 W - 5 L.

If you go through his game log from the start of the season there have been four pretty distinct periods for Jackson so far this year... Solid Start (0329 to 0410) 43 PA | 7.0 BB% | 30.2 K% 282/326/462 (117 wRC+) The Learning Curve (0411 to 0601) 133 PA | 5.3 BB% | 26.3 K% 184/227/280 (41 wRC+) Figuring It Out (0602 to 0714) 124 PA | 8.9 BB% | 17.7 K% 295/355/473 (129 wRC+) HE'S ON FIRE !! (0720 to 0808) 74 PA | 2.7 BB% | 13.5 K% 408/432/662 (206 wRC+)

William Contreras (3.2 WAR), Jackson Chourio (2.5 WAR), Joey Ortiz (2.3 WAR), Brice Turang (1.9 WAR), Blake Perkins (1.8 WAR), Sal Frelick (1.6 WAR), Garrett Mitcell (0.7 WAR). That's seven Brewers position players age twenty seven or younger under long term team control who have produced 14.0 WAR combined this year. That 14.0 WAR is more than half the teams in baseball (including all four in the NLC) have gotten from their entire position player group. Only the Orioles with their redonkulous young core and the Yankees (buoyed by Juan Soto and his 6.8 WAR) have gotten more WAR from position players 27 or younger this year.

Pretty impressive rookie crop in the NL this year... Skenes (3.7 rWAR), Imanaga (3.0 rWAR), some dude named Tobias Myers (2.5 rWAR), some other dude named Bryan Hudson (+2.39 WPA) Merrill (3.0 WAR), Fitzgerald (2.9 WAR), Winn (2.8 WAR), some dude named Chourio (2.5 WAR), Busch (2.4 WAR), some other dude named Joey Ortiz (2.3 WAR). That's essentially ten wins (& counting) the Brewers have gotten from rookies so far with an eleventh win tacked on from Bob Gas (0.9 rWAR) in his five starts.

With a three gamer against the Reds coming up and the season 70% done, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of where everybody stands coming down the stretch... OVERVIEW BREWERS 65 W - 49 L | +101 Run Differential PECOTA: 88.7% Win Division FanGraphs: 88.1% Win Division Division Record: 23 W - 13 L Division Games Remaining (16) vsCIN (3), atSTL (3), atCIN (4), vsSTL (3), atPIT (3) CARDINALS 59 W - 57 L | -46 Run Differential PECOTA: 7.0% Win Division FanGraphs: 5.9% Win Division Division Record: 17 W - 19 L Division Games Remaining (16) atCIN (3), vsMIL (3), atMIL (3), vsCIN (3), vsPIT (4) PIRATES 56 W - 58 L | -13 Run Differential PECOTA: 0.4% Win Division FanGraphs: 1.9% Win Division Division Record: 17 W - 15 L Division Games Remaining (20) vsCIN (4), vsCHI (3), atCHI (3), atSTL (4), atCHI (3), vsMIL (3) REDS 56 W - 59 L | +45 Run Differential PECOTA: 1.2% Win Division FanGraphs: 1.8% Win Division Division Record: 14 W - 15 L Division Games Remaining (23) atMIL (3), vsSTL (3), atPIT (4), vsMIL (4), atSTL (3), vsPIT (3), vsCHI (3) CUBS 57 W - 60 L | +7 Run Differential PECOTA: 2.7% Win Division FanGraphs: 2.3% Win Division Division Record: 17 W - 26 L Division Games Remaining (9) atPIT (3), vsPIT (3), vsCIN (3) FULL SEASON LEAGUE RANKS BREWERS 109 wRC+ (9th) | 4.89 R/G (7th) +13.2 BsR (2nd) | +42 DRS (4th) | 21.9 WAR (4th) SP: 101 ERA- (14th) | 7.6 rWAR (16th) RP: 80 ERA- (3rd) | +9.18 WPA (2nd) CARDINALS 97 wRC+ (18th) | 4.15 R/G (24th) +1.4 BsR (14th) | +29 DRS (9th) | 11.9 WAR (18th) SP: 110 ERA- (23rd) | 5.0 rWAR (26th) RP: 91 ERA- (9th) | +4.10 WPA (7th) PIRATES 87 wRC+ (27th) | 4.23 R/G (17th) +2.9 BsR (10th) | -7 DRS (24th) | 5.0 WAR (27th) SP: 85 ERA- (4th) | 12.8 rWAR (4th) RP: 106 ERA- (26th) | +0.38 WPA (22nd) REDS 91 wRC+ (24th) | 4.50 R/G (13th) +15.7 BsR (1st) | -29 DRS (28th) | 9.0 WAR (24th) SP: 94 ERA- (8th) | 10.9 rWAR (6th) RP: 83 ERA- (4th) | +3.25 WPA (9th) CUBS 95 wRC+ (20th) | 4.21 R/G (19th) +8.1 BsR (4th) | +12 DRS (15th) | 11.9 WAR (17th) SP: 93 ERA- (7th) | 9.9 rWAR (9th) RP: 90 ERA- (6th) | -0.93 WPA (26th) POST ALL STAR BREAK LEAGUE RANKS BREWERS (10 W - 7 L) 123 wRC+ (6th) | 5.41 R/G (7th) | 4.4 WAR (7th) SP: 98 ERA- (13th) | 1.3 rWAR (18th) RP: 74 ERA- (6th) | +1.41 WPA (6th) CARDINALS (9 W - 11 L) 98 wRC+ (20th) | 4.15 R/G (23rd) | 2.1 WAR (18th) SP: 108 ERA- (17th) | 1.8 rWAR (10th) RP: 114 ERA- (21st) | -0.89 WPA (23rd) PIRATES (8 W - 10 L) 94 wRC+ (23rd) | 4.44 R/G (17th) | 1.6 WAR (22nd) SP: 89 ERA- (7th) | 1.8 rWAR (11th) RP: 110 ERA- (18th) | -1.49 WPA (29th) REDS (9 W - 9 L) 92 wRC+ (24th) | 4.72 R/G (11th) | 1.5 WAR (23rd) SP: 97 ERA- (12th) | 2.1 rWAR (7th) RP: 101 ERA- (16th) | +0.28 WPA (15th) CUBS (10 W - 9 L) 89 wRC+ (26th) | 4.11 R/G (24th) | 2.1 WAR (19th) SP: 110 ERA- (18th) | 1.4 rWAR (17th) RP: 44 ERA- (1st) | +0.57 WPA (11th)

I'd guess Black or Hicklen is the call when rosters expand. Capra is on the 40 Man too, but I'd have him a notch behind the other two since he is pretty redundant with Monasterio. Would guess Collins is a more of longshot by virtue of not being on the 40 Man and going ice cold over the last few weeks... thru 0719 (348 PA) 286/397/510 (134 wRC+) 13.5 BB% | 19.3 K% since 0719 (64 PA) 161/250/161 (7 wRC+) 10.9 BB% | 21.9 K%

Extra impressive with offense down in the DSL this summer at a .699 league average OPS so far versus a .720 last year.

EXTRA !! EXTRA !! READ ALL ABOUT IT !! Team On Verge Of Complete Collapse Goes 4 W - 2 L The Following Week !!

Obviously more goes into it than strictly WAR, but Skenes is at 3.7 rWAR currently versus Jackson at 2.2 WAR before today. Over the last 15 games / 68 PA coming into today Jackson put up a 177 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR. Continuing that pace over the rest of the year (highly unlikely but how cool would that be?) would get him over 5.0 WAR, maybe even approaching 5.5 WAR. Skenes probably has six or seven starts left if he isn't shut down early, at his current pace that would put him somewhere around 5.5 rWAR too.

Now up to 12 RBI combined for the trio here bottom of eight in a 17 to 10 ballgame. In addition to the offensive explosion, Wande Torres walked the first two batters he faced in the first inning but then retired eight in a row, five via strikeout.

Mejia has an 85 wRC+ as a bat first catcher in AAA. He’s thrown out 6 of 46 attempted base stealers. Haase was at a 123 wRC+ and threw out 5 of 21 attempted base stealers in Nashville.

Yup. His -58 DRS ranks 133rd out of 139 outfielders with at least 3,000 innings since his debut in 2014. He’s ten twenty runs worse than comically bad guys like Schwarber (-48 DRS) and Winker (-38 DRS).

Yeah, if we’re breaking into buckets I’d say they struggled to score once (2 R), scored an average number of runs five times (4 or 5 R), and followed with above average games (6 R+) three times.

Mitchell has the tools to be someone who runs a high BABIP for sure but his .396 mark over 78 PAs this year is still bound to regress some. Only Rob Refsnyder (.394) has come close to that over 200 PAs this year with a decent sized gap down to LaMonte Wade Jr (.375), Bobby Witt Jr (.374), Donovan Solano (.372), and Aaron Judge (.369). If we raise the floor to min. 1,000 PAs during the 2022-24 timeframe Brandon Marsh is atop the leaderboard at .370 with only Riley Greene (.356), Jarren Duran (.355) and Freddie Freeman (.352) clearing a .350 mark. Double that to min. 2,000 PAs during the 2019-24 timeframe and Tim Anderson (.358) is the BABIP king with Yoan Moncada (.344), Trea Turner (.343) and Freeman again (.340) the only guys at .340 or above.

Can kind of get there using date range feature on the FanGraphs game logs. Just splitting the season into rough two month chunks it looks like he’s at… 0405 thru 0604 (213 PAs) 243/343/400 (120 wRC+) 12.2 BB% | 29.1 K% 0605 thru 0806 (158 PAs) 289/373/459 (141 wRC+) 12.7 BB% | 20.3 K%

BRef also tracks “Blowouts” (which they define as games with a 5+ run margin) on their team schedule pages. Here’s how those same dozen teams stack up… MIL (20 W - 6 L) KCR (25 W - 10 L) NYY (27 W - 12 L) PHI (26 W - 12 L) BAL (22 W - 13 L) MIN (22 W - 13 L) CLE (19 W - 11 L) ATL (19 W - 12 L) LAD (16 W - 13 L) SDP (16 W - 15 L) BOS (23 W - 22 L) ARI (20 W - 19 L) Looking at it this way the Brewers clearly have the lowest number of total blowout games, but also the highest winning percentage in such games. Only six blowout losses over 112 total games is pretty nuts all things considered.

Quickest and dirtiest way to look at this is probably what percentage of wins required a save? Here are the rankings for the dozen teams that have won 60 games to this point… CLE (56.7%) 67 W | 38 SV MIL (55.6%) 63 W | 35 SV LAD (53.0%) 66 W | 35 SV BAL (50.7%) 67 W | 34 SV MIN (49.2%) 63 W | 31 SV ATL (46.7%) 60 W | 28 SV ARI (45.9%) 61 W | 28 SV BOS (45.9%) 61 W | 28 SV NYY (43.3%) 67 W | 29 SV KCR (42.3%) 63 W | 27 SV SDP (41.9%) 62 W | 26 SV PHI (40.3%) 67 W | 27 SV Looks like Milwaukee has definitely had fewer comfortable wins by that methodology. CLE (+10.19) and MIL (+8.96) are also the top two teams in bullpen Win Probability Added by a wide margin over ATL in 3rd at +5.14.

April 7th they scored a dozen, followed that up with 8, 9, 7, 11, 11, 4 runs in their next six games. April 20th/21st they went for 12 followed by 2. May 10th/11th was 11 then 5. May 15th/17th was 10 (day off) 4. May 29th to June 1st went 10, 6, 12, 4 over a four game stretch. June 7th/8th they had a 10 then 5. So they’ve scored ten or more runs nine times this year before last night and followed those games up with 8, 11, 4, 2, 5, 4, 6, 4, and 5 runs.

JB Bukauskas had another three up three down inning for Nashville, now up to four scoreless frames with 2 H | 0 BB | 3 K since coming off the IL.