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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Lamar Sparks solo shot to lead off the sixth. Now 3 to 1 Shuckers.
  2. sveumrules
    Biloxi on the board first top of three with a pair of two out runs. A Zavier Warren solo shot started things off followed by a Casey Martin walk, and Darrien Miller & Brock Wilken HBPs to load the bases for a Connor Scott RBI single. Gave one back in the bottom half though with a Wilken error, double, and Nate Peterson wild pitch. Now 2 to 1 middle four.
  3. sveumrules
    Montas CIN vs MIL ERA 5.01 vs 2.57 FIP 4.93 vs 3.55 K% 19.0 vs 23.3 BB% 10.0 vs 8.9 HR9 1.35 vs 0.86 AVG .255 vs .219 WHIP 1.44 vs 1.19 He cut his ERA in half and improved across the board peripherally with the Brewers going 4 W - 0 L in his first four starts. They’d be tied 2 to 2 today if CB Bucknor knew a strike from a ball. Based on expectations after his acquisition, yeah, I’d say he’s been pretty great.
  4. sveumrules
    Casual nine up nine down for Montas, pumping gas. Wiemer hitting 146/255/146 (14 wRC+) for Louisville. Junis with a 5.84 ERA in a dozen mop up innings for the Reds.
  5. sveumrules
    Since Sanchez came back off the IL on 0724 he’s got 49 PA of 325/429/475 (154 wRC+) and that doesn’t include today’s bomb. VIVA EL GARY.
  6. sveumrules
    TRats hold on to win 5 to 2. Hedbert added a double to his ledger in the late innings while Tyler Bryant surrendered his first run in 10.2 Midwest League innings but notched his third save nonetheless. Mudcats also prevailed, 7 to 5. Harrison Durow went two scoreless (1 HBP | 3 K) with Dikember Sanchez picking up his third save throwing a scoreless ninth (1 HBP | 1 K). The combined exploits of Bitonti, Castillo and Guilarte accounted for most of the offense as noted up thread but Yophery Rodriguez and Marco Dinges both went 2 for 4 with a double each while Filippo Di Turi walked twice and stole a bag. Yophery also had an outfield assist.
  7. sveumrules
    Wisco leading 4 to 1 heading to top of eight. In addition to the aforementioned Hedbert homer, Jadher Areinamo is 3 for 4 with a double while Felix Valerio has an RBI double. Will Rudy was solid through four (1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 4 K) while Jeferson Figueroa has followed with three scoreless (2 each H, BB, K).
  8. sveumrules
    The Brewers are 14 W - 7 L since the trade deadline, with four of those wins coming in Montas starts. Cubs have mostly kept pace at 13 W - 7 L, but the Cardinals 8 W - 13 L is pretty ugly for a “clearly improved” club. The Brewers division lead has grown from five up on STL in 2nd place entering the month to 10.5 up on CHC in 2nd place currently.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, among 418 pitchers with at least 30 IP this year, Boyle’s 16.5% walk rate ranks 416th. Brewers batters’ 9.7% walk rate is 2nd in MLB (behind only the Judge Soto Show in the Bronx) so it should hopefully be a good match up for them.
  10. sveumrules
    21 Burnes (167 IP) 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ 84 AVG+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- 22 Burnes (202 IP) 135 K%+ | 77 BB%+ | 93 HR9+ 81 AVG+ | 72 ERA- | 78 FIP- 23 Burnes (193 IP) 115 K%+ | 97 BB%+ | 83 HR9+ 80 AVG+ | 77 ERA- | 86 FIP- 24 Burnes (159 IP) 100 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 87 HR9+ 97 AVG+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP- Obviously 2021 was never going to be any kind of multi season baseline, but the extent to which Corbin’s K rate has regressed to literal average would make me hesitant to dish out the 8/250 Boras will likely be shooting for this winter. The big jump in AVG+ really caught my eye too. Obviously pitching in front of the Brewers defense with +147 DRS (1st) from 2021-23 is a big difference from pitching in front of the Orioles with -1 DRS (21st) so far this year, but still pretty concerning either way.
  11. sveumrules
    The gap between AAA (especially the PCL where LAA has their affiliate) and the Majors is much wider than just a cusp. MLB Average 244/313/400 (4.41 R/G) IL Average 255/345/421 (5.14 R/G) PCL Average 268/357/446 (5.77 R/G)
  12. sveumrules
    Brewers and Athletics have matching 18 W - 12 L records since the All Star Break. Looks like Oakland’s hot streak has actually been going on since the beginning of July with their 25 W - 17 L record ranking 4th in MLB over that stretch.
  13. sveumrules
    ...and a 30.9% K rate. Nolan Schanuel is kind of locked into 1B as the Angels 1st Round Pick (11th overall) in 2023 and one of their only decent players. When Hiura was up with LAA for a spell in July he started 4 games at 2B and 3 at DH. The last week or so the Angels have been giving those reps to Brandon Drury (264 PAs | 27 OPS+), Michael Stefanic (82 PAs | 80 OPS+), Niko Kavadas (13 PAs | -51 OPS+), and Jack Lopez (13 PAs | -100 OPS+). Pretty stiff competition.
  14. sveumrules
    Todd Helton had 61.8 career WAR | 46.6 peak seven WAR over 9,453 PAs with a 131 OPS+. Votto comes in at 64.5 career WAR | 46.9 peak seven WAR over 8,746 PAs with a 144 OPS+. Took Helton six years to get in. Guessing Votto comes in around there, maybe a little shorter since he doesn't have Coors Field hanging over his head and as you note he has always been a writer & fan favorite.
  15. sveumrules
    Bernie's been roasting the Cardinals all year... Despite A Huge Payroll Advantage, Cardinals Are Inferior To The Brewers. There’s No Excuse For That.
  16. sveumrules
    Over the last two years, covering 287 games and 2,553 innings, the Brewers have posted a 3.69 ERA | 4.25 FIP. That -0.56 margin is the best in MLB with Houston second all the way down at a -0.34 margin. The gap between the Brewers in 1st and Astros in 2nd is the same as the gap between the Astros in 2nd and the Cubs in 10th. Over those same last two years, the Rockies have posted a 5.61 ERA | 5.06 FIP. That +0.55 margin is the worst in MLB over that stretch by an even larger extent with the Cardinals second to worst with a +0.30 margin. Now obviously more goes into beating (or not beating) one's FIP than just defense and home ballpark, but the Brewers defense over the last two years has essentially been so good that their pitchers have gotten to pitch their games in the opposite of Coors Field.
  17. sveumrules
    Yup. Have to imagine that pitching in front of the Brewers defense (+64 DRS | 3rd) instead of Cincy’s (-34 DRS | 27th) has made some difference for Frankie too.
  18. sveumrules
    Timmerman has some pretty impressive numbers for an under the radar guy. Think he definitely would be getting more attention if there weren’t so many other arms from last years draft just going completely nuts. At a just turned 22 he is still about half a year younger than the average pitcher in the Carolina League. His 3.35 FIP ranks 10th among Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 50 IP. The only pitcher younger than him with a lower FIP was the recently traded Yujanyer Herrera. 9.91 K9 is good, but that 5.11 BB9 will probably need to come down as he moves up because he won’t keep on giving up 0.00 HR9 forever.
  19. sveumrules
    Looking at pitch usage, they’ve de-emphasized his splitter and slider in favor of more four seamers, cutters and sinkers… CIN: FA (33.8%) FC (17.2%) SP (21.2%) SI (16.4%) SL (11.4%) MIL: FA (41.0%) FC (20.5%) SP (10.8%) SI (23.2%) SL (4.6%) Run Values on the four seam and cutter have gone from -1.3 and -7.0 with the Reds to +2.1 each with the Brewers. It’s hard to measure command, but that’s what Location+ tries to do and Montas has improved slightly there too from 100 to 102. In terms of results it’s almost a complete script flip. His 85 K+ | 123 BB+ | 121 HR+ with the Reds were all on the wrong side of average. With the Brewers it’s been 105 K+ | 109 BB+ | 77 HR+
  20. sveumrules
    Eflin (35 ERA- | 72 FIP-) was shoving for the Orioles but just landed on the IL. Kikuchi (61 ERA- | 75 FIP-) has been a scooch better peripherally than Montas (62 ERA- | 86 FIP-). Lorenzen (67 ERA- | 115 FIP-) & Martin Perez (69 ERA- | 115 FIP-) have been in the neighborhood by run prevention but with ugly secondaries. Only two starts, but gotta throw one Bradley Blalock (68 ERA- | 69 FIP-) in there too.
  21. sveumrules
    Montas has posted a 2.57 ERA and the Brewers have won all four of his starts. Junis has a 5.40 ERA in 10 innings of low leverage relief work. Wiemer has hit 075/140/075 (-47 wRC+) in 43 AAA PAs with the Reds.
  22. sveumrules
    Brewers reliever depth is insane. Enoli Paredes, Rob Zastryzny and Kevin Herget have put up pretty ridiculous numbers in AAA and their brief MLB looks and still might not even make the cut for September and beyond... AAA combined 90.0 IP | 23 ER | 60 H | 32 BB+HBP | 125 K 2.30 ERA | 2.38 FIP | 1.02 WHIP MLB combined 33.0 IP | 5 ER | 17 H | 15 BB+HBP | 24 K 1.36 ERA | 3.43 FIP | 0.97 WHIP | +0.92 WPA
  23. sveumrules
    Obviously only four innings, but Yoho has a 0.01 FIP in Nashville. If he had one more strikeout it would be negative.
  24. sveumrules
    Hey, whaddya know, Brewers 17 W - 10 L record so far in the second half is tied for the 3rd best in all of MLB. In the 2nd half of 2018 they went 41 W - 24 L In the 2nd half of 2019 they went 42 W - 29 L In the 2nd half of 2021 they went 42 W - 28 L In the 2nd half of 2022 they went 36 W - 33 L In the 2nd half of 2023 they went 43 W - 28 L Guess it really shouldn't be that much of a surprise anymore. In the first half Brewers batters put up a 106 wRC+ (9th) | 4.80 R/G (8th) and 17.4 WAR (5th) so far in the second half they are at a 107 wRC+ (12th) | 4.74 R/G (9th) and 4.8 WAR (8th). In the first half Brewers SP posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 6.5 rWAR (15th) so far in the second half they are at an 82 ERA- (5th) and 2.6 rWAR (9th). In the first half Brewers RP posted an 81 ERA- (4th) and +7.76 WPA (2nd) so far in the second half they are at a 67 ERA- (3rd) and +2.75 WPA (3rd).
  25. sveumrules
    The hyperbole was so over the top. My favorite was Heyman at the NY Post… Mets Landing Craig Counsell As Next Manager An Absolute Necessity
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