sveumrules

Looks like Jesus Made still managed a single, two walks and two stolen bags (and an error) in the losing effort. Carlos Carra (3.1 IP | 1 H | 3 BB | 1 HBP | 3 K) and Ayendy Bravo (4.0 IP | 2 H | 0 BB | 3 K) each registered multi inning scoreless appearances.

Hey now, he's hitting 400/476/727 in the Atlantic League. Who knew the fountain of youth was in Long Island?!?!?

Using the somewhat arbitrary start point of June 2nd (aka when Chourio got hot) the best lineup the Brewers could run out probably looks something like this... CF Perkins (99 PA) 99 wRC+ LF Chourio (137 PA) 137 wRC+ DH Yelich (173 PA) 143 wRC+ SS Adames (179 PA) 111 wRC+ 1B Bauers (70 PA) 123 wRC+ Ca Haase (22 PA) 265 wRC+ RF Mitchell (44 PA) 122 wRC+ 3B Ortiz (111 PA) 89 wRC+ 2B Turang (182 PA) 77 wRC+ BENCH Frelick (137 PA) 96 wRC+ Contreras (170 PA) 76 wRC+ Hoskins (143 PA) 75 wRC+ Monasterio (57 PA) 70 wRC+

Just thought I'd put together a quick reference list with some of the rumoured to be available starting pitchers... Tarik Skubal (123 IP) 58 ERA- | 61 FIP- 133 K+ | 55 BB+ | 64 HR+ Garrett Crochet (107 IP) 74 ERA- | 54 FIP- 156 K+ | 65 BB+ | 73 HR+ Jack Flaherty (100 IP) 78 ERA- | 77 FIP- 144 K+ | 52 BB+ | 117 HR+ Erick Fedde (117 IP) 73 ERA- | 86 FIP- 96 K+ | 80 BB+ | 87 HR+ [These are the likely the only guys worth starting in a playoff game. Would imagine Skubal and Crochet are out of our price range so one of Flaherty or Fedde is probably the best we can hope for.] Nathan Eovaldi (99 IP) 82 ERA- | 92 FIP- 105 K+ | 79 BB+ | 103 HR+ Andrew Heaney (100 IP) 87 ERA- | 94 FIP- 104 K+ | 82 BB+ | 110 HR+ [Not sure if the Rangers will sell or not, but either of these two would give the rotation a boost.] Chris Bassitt (114 IP) 94 ERA- | 92 FIP- 95 K+ | 112 BB+ | 69 HR+ Yusei Kikuchi (111 IP) 114 ERA- | 86 FIP- 117 K+ | 72 BB+ | 113 HR+ Tyler Anderson (123 IP) 71 ERA- | 106 FIP- 78 K+ | 115 BB+ | 89 HR+ Cal Quantrill (108 IP) 88 ERA- | 109 FIP- 82 K+ | 109 BB+ | 107 HR+ [Getting somebody from this tier would be more of an inning eater move than a move the needle move, though worth noting that Kikuchi has an even shinier 81 xFIP- indicating he's likely had some bad HR luck. Conversely Bassitt has a more pedestrian 103 xFIP- so he could be bound for an elevated HR rate down the stretch if things even out.]

I don't see the White Sox having much interest in Frelick as a headliner since he is already coming up on one year of service time under his belt and is more of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player. I'd guess the Brewers would need to offer two of Misio/Quero/Pratt to get the White Sox seriously listening on Robert.

26yo Bryse Wilson (one million dollars) 4.07 ERA / 5.06 FIP / 4.65 xFIP 35yo James Paxton (nine million dollars) 4.43 ERA / 4.97 FIP / 5.30 xFIP

Yeah, I think Black plus somebody in that 10-15 range is the likely ask for Fedde. It would hurt for sure, but if the Brewers view Black as being limited to 1B/DH that puts a lot more pressure on his bat to carry the profile. White Sox would also be better positioned to try him out at 3B/2B/OF. Would prefer something like a Boeve/Lara co-headliner, but that offer probably gets beaten pretty easily with how much competition there will be for SP at the deadline.

Pretty good breakdown at FanGraphs from when he originally signed with the White Sox after winning MVP and Cy Young in Korea last year. Long story short, "Fedde went to Push Athletic in Scottsdale and remade his body, mechanics, and the shape of his three most-used pitches." and "Perhaps the biggest leap in Fedde’s skill set is evident in his command. His 2023 walk rate with the Dinos (4.9%) was roughly half his MLB career walk rate with Washington."

DSL Dos is currently leading 5 to 2 over Cleveland Mendoza in a game that appears to be suspended bottom of four. Luis Corobo has doubled while Frandy LaFond has doubled and walked in the early going.

Looks like DSL Uno was called after five innings with a 4 to 1 victory over the Rojos. Luis Pena (2 for 3, two stolen bases), Engel Paulino (2 for 2, double) and Kevin Garcia (1 for 2, triple) had the big days at the plate. Gabriel Colmenarez limited the Rojos to one unearned runs over four frames (3 H | 2 BB | 1 HBP | 3 K) while Saul Sanchez worked a one two three fifth inning (1 K).

Luke Adams with a productive oh for oh game today - two walks, two HBP, one stolen bag, two runs scored.

Obviously lotsa good stuff amidst the carnage of the Biloxi box but extra nice to see Eric Brown Jr. (double, home run) and Dylan O’Rae (single, double, walk, stolen bag) contributing big.

Tyler Rodriguez was hit by pitch three times for the Zona Crew (came around to score the first times and stole two bags) before being lifted for a pinch runner after his third drilling.

Freddy was at a 107 ERA- | 104 FIP- at the break last year, a notch worse than his current 100 ERA- | 91 FIP-. He followed that up with a monster 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- in the second half last year, so I’ll hope he has something like that in him again this year.

Thanks for posting, really interesting stuff. The spread on team DRS went from +85 to -79 last year versus only +44 to -47 for StatCast’s FRV. Seems to me like the larger range of DRS outcomes is a better representation of the potential runs to be saved (or lost) than the narrower StatCast spread. Based on how much the Brewers FO has emphasized defense (& to great effect), I’d imagine their own internal metrics or models align more closely with DRS on the whole as well.

Wisco loses 2 to 1. Luis Lara and Jadher Areinamo both singled and stole a bag. Matthew Wood doubled. Eduarqui Fernandez had the sole RBI. Stiven Cruz (2 H | 1 HBP) and Tyler Wehrle (3 H | 2 HBP) each threw three scoreless frames without walking or striking anybody out.

Pretty fun Sounds box despite the outcome and Ross/White duds. Tyler Black: double, walk, made his third error in three games as a third baseman. Isaac Collins: two doubles and a single. Brewer Hicklen: tripled and singled. Joey Wiemer: singled thrice, gunned out a runner at the plate. Chris Roller: three run bomb and a single. Jared Koenig: one inning, one hit, one K.

Because nobody claimed him when he got DFA’d.

FanGraphs uses StatCast for their fielding input & for whatever reason Turang hasn’t graded out as highly by their methodology (+6 OAA | +5 FRV career) as he does by DRS with +27 career. Just spitballing, but my first guess would be that he is well positioned so StatCast doesn’t think the plays he makes are necessarily as difficult as they look?

FanGraphs Day Two and Three Draft Roundup had a blurb on the Brewers approach... "The Brewers followed up on their high school-heavy 2023 draft with an even younger group this year, and it reveals an interesting strategy. Their first round pick, Braylon Payne, was generally seen as a second-round prospect. His bonus is likely to be well below the $4.5 million slot value of his pick, with some amount of the excess pool space diverted to the high school pitching prospects they selected in the second and Comp B rounds, New Jersey high schoolers Bryce Meccage and Chris Levonas. They also popped high schoolers in rounds nine and 10, and then took several on Day Three. Not all of these guys are going to sign but several of them will. Recall last year that Brewers got Cooper Pratt’s deal done for $1.3 million in the sixth round and then also signed multiple high schoolers for between $250,000-$550,000 on Day Three of the draft. Day Three picks don’t have bonus slots that reduce your team’s pool if the player doesn’t sign, so aside from a little opportunity cost (the college guy they’d have otherwise taken in round 14 or whatever), the Brewers can now negotiate with a bunch of higher-upside high school players between now and the signing deadline and decide what combination of bonuses and players gives them the best overall class. Several teams do a version of this every year, but nobody does it to this degree. Whether it was precipitated by the nature of this particular draft class or just how the board fell in the first round (i.e. the Brewers didn’t like who was left on the board, so they pivoted to this strategy), we just don’t know."

Don't believe the Sox would sell Crochet for anything less than two Top 100 type guys, and with his years of control remaining and being the best SP on the market they might hold out for three. Any proposal without at least two of Misio, Quero, Black and Pratt for Crochet alone probably doesn't get anywhere with Chicago.

Hoskins had a 129 wRC+ before getting injured. Guessing they'll give him plenty of chances to regain that form down the stretch, especially since they are likely on the hook for him next year too at this point. Small sample, but he was starting to put it together before the break with 3 home runs and a 141 wRC+ over 29 PA since July 5th. Bauers hasn't been anything special either, but he is the best defensive 1B on the roster and has been the club's primary pinch hitter with 18 PAs of 273/556/455 which makes him the 5th best PHer in MLB with at least 10 PAs this year. Would imagine they would just roll with Black (assuming he isn't traded himself) before trading for someone at the deadline.

A player from Wichita State?

Chris Roller was already DFA’d on June 29th.

Welcome to the board and thanks for the nugget. Hopefully we’ll see them both in Milwaukee soon.