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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Was looking at Colin Rea’s game log after last night’s first career save and obviously every player’s performance goes through peaks and valleys, but hopefully last night is the first step on an upswing going into the playoffs… 0331 to 0421 (21.2 IP) 2.08 ERA | 4.05 FIP 0426 to 0519 (27.0 IP) 5.67 ERA | 5.25 FIP 0525 to 0616 (28.0 IP) 1.93 ERA | 4.06 FIP 0621 to 0709 (22.2 IP) 5.56 ERA | 5.33 FIP 0714 to 0806 (23.0 IP) 1.57 ERA | 2.48 FIP 0813 to 0911 (31.2 IP) 7.39 ERA | 6.83 FIP If the pattern holds he should be in line for another twenty some innings of good Rea after last night’s 2.2 IP of 0.00 ERA | 2.42 FIP.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, Brewers 31 W - 15 L record against the AL is more or less tied with ATL (29 W- 14 L) for the best in MLB at the moment. Top four teams for inter-league record and eight of the top ten are NL clubs. The two AL teams in the Top Ten - SEA and TBR - are unlikely to make the playoffs.
  3. sveumrules
    I think it was more of a depth issue. Tyler Black and Wes Clarke played the lions's share of 1B (831 innings) in Nashville which left 396 innings to be split up among Owen Miller, Patrick Dorrian and Noah Campbell. Especially with Clarke catching zero innings this year and Black not seeing time at other spots until closer to the deadline its just too hard to have three more or less first base only guys. Martinez also hasn't been this version of Martinez all year long. Thru June 30th he was at 256 PAs of 236/305/397 (108 wRC+) with a 6.6 BB% and 19.1 K%. Since July 1st its 201 PAs of 349/443/558 (195 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 13.9 K%.
  4. sveumrules
    First tiebreaker after head to head is inter-division record. Phillies are currently 27 W - 18 L vs the NLE and Brewers are 30 W - 19 L vs the NLC to this point. If that ends up tied too it would go to intra-division records. Phillies are currently 37 W - 22 L vs the rest of the NL while the Brewers come in at 26 W - 29 L.
  5. sveumrules
    Thru July 31st, the Brewers rotation was at 513.2 IP (30th) | 100 ERA- (13th) | 7.1 rWAR (16th). Since trading for Montas at the deadline its 228.2 IP (8th) | 92 ERA- (8th) | 4.0 rWAR (9th). The early season bullpen that put up 445.2 IP (1st) | 80 ERA- (3rd) | +8.82 WPA (2nd) thru July 31st and was never going to be able to hold up under such a heavy workload has posted 151 IP (18th) | 69 ERA- (3rd) | +4.24 WPA (2nd) since August 1st.
  6. sveumrules
    Among 1,382 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 50 IP, Craig Yoho ranks 1st with a 1.34 FIP. Among 304 minor league pitchers across all levels with at least 100 IP, KC Hunt ranks 1st with 2.29 FIP.
  7. sveumrules
    BRef has Pee Wee with a .377 career SLG. .269 of that is his batting average though, which leaves him with an isolated slugging of .108. JJ does have a .408 career SLG with an average of .256 underneath leaving an isolated slugging of .152.
  8. sveumrules
    Wow, Nick Kahle much in the clutch with a two out two RBI double to put the Shuckers back on top 5 to 4 bottom seven. & Felix Valerio follows up with a two run BOMB.
  9. sveumrules
    Checking the standings post-trade deadline there are seven teams bunched together at the top. Here's a quick look at how they each got there... ARI (24 W - 14 L) 134 wRC+ (1st) | 6.45 R/G (1st) +3.1 BsR (6th) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.2 rWAR (24th) | RP: +0.72 WPA (20th) (Best Offense, Worst Pitching) LAD (24 W - 14 L) 115 wRC+ (4th) | 5.21 R/G (3rd) +5.5 BsR (2nd) | +0.6 FLD (12th) SP: 1.6 rWAR (22nd) | RP: +2.47 WPA (7th) (Rotation Only Weakness) SDP (24 W - 14 L) 117 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.08 R/G (4th) +4.2 BsR (5th) | -3.6 FLD (22nd) SP: 2.0 rWAR (19th) | RP: +1.10 WPA (14th) (Top End Offense, Middling Pitching, Bad Defense) CHI (23 W - 14 L) 116 wRC+ (3rd) | 5.81 R/G (2nd) +4.5 BsR (4th) | +6.6 FLD (7th) SP: 3.4 rWAR (12th) | RP: +1.16 WPA (12th) (Top End Position Players, Above Average Pitching) DET (24 W - 15 L) 100 wRC+ (16th) | 4.36 R/G (17th) +2.2 BsR (13th) | +7.2 FLD (6th) SP: 3.9 rWAR (9th) | RP: +2.77 WPA (4th) (Middling Offense, Above Average Rotation, Top End Bullpen / Defense) NYM (24 W - 15 L) 105 wRC+ (10th) | 4.54 R/G (8th) -2.3 BsR (23rd) | +1.3 FLD (10th) SP: 5.0 rWAR (4th) | RP: +1.01 WPA (16th) (Top End Rotation, Top Ten Offense, Middling Bullpen) MIL (24 W- 15 L) 104 wRC+ (11th) | 4.92 R/G (5th) +2.9 BsR (9th) | +8.1 FLD (3rd) SP: 4.2 rWAR (8th) | RP: +4.84 WPA (1st) (Most Complete Team Since The Deadline ??)
  10. sveumrules
    Brewers have scored 5 or 6 runs in 32 of their 147 games so far this year, so about a 21.77% chance.
  11. sveumrules
    This is one of those situations that WAR was more or less invented for... Ohtani BREF (7.2 WAR) +54 BAT | +9 RUN | 0 FLD | -12 POS | +20 REP Lindor BREF (6.5 WAR) +28 BAT | +5 RUN | +3 FLD | +9 POS | +21 REP Ohtani FanGraphs (6.8 WAR) +52.6 BAT | +7.1 RUN | 0.0 FLD | -15.3 POS | +19.8 REP Lindor FanGraphs (7.2 WAR) +26.6 BAT | +4.2 RUN | +10.8 FLD | +6.5 POS | +20.0 REP Depending how much one values position and defensive performance Lindor either comes in about 0.7 WAR behind by BRef's calculations versus 0.4 WAR ahead by FanGraph's computations.
  12. sveumrules
    Any and every ex-Brewer.
  13. sveumrules
    Hoskins has underwhelmed, no doubt, but prior to this season he averaged 26 HR | 70 RBI per 500 PAs and this year he is at 23 HR | 71 RBI in 460 PAs. He’s delivered to reasonable expectations in the old school run producing categories, at least, and his .199 ISO and 23 HR are both 2nd on a team with plenty of speed (+14.8 BSR | 2nd), defense (+69 DRS | 3rd), walks (9.8 BB% | 2nd), and singles (808 | 7th), but not a whole lot of power (.156 ISO | 15th and 161 HR | 16th). From 2017-22 with the Phillies, Hoskins posted… 152 BB+ | 109 K+ | 96 AVG+ | 148 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ Over his first 156 pre-injury PAs with the Brewers he came in at… 140 BB+ | 94 K+ | 95 AVG+ | 154 ISO+ | 127 wRC+ Not an exact match to his career norms, but pretty darn close trading a few walks and strikeouts for a little more power. He also had one hot stretch since returning from injury covering 112 PAs from 0705 to 0813 where his production took a way different shape… 87 BB+ | 131 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 197 ISO+ | 137 wRC+ Ideally he’s got a few more big hits left in him this year, then with a full offseason and that FA carrot dangling he can bounce back and put up a full healthy season in 2025 (for the defending WS Champions).
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, probably have another vote after the postseason or the AFL is over to have a fresh list for the offseason. Looks like Braylon was mostly slotted in the teens this go round, but he did get a #8 and #10 for his two highest placements. For me personally I’ve got Misio & Pratt in the top tier, then Black/Quero/Gasser in their own little holding pattern tier. After that I’d have Braylon somewhere in the next grouping with Henderson, Yophery, Made, Peña, Adams, Yoho and Knoth for spots six to thirteen. I’d have the third basemen - Bitonti, Wilken, Boeve - after that. Lotsa viable options for the final four spots but I’d probably lean Lara, Hunt, Carlos Rodriguez the pitcher and Jose Anderson at the moment.
  15. sveumrules
    That split was posted before the game on 0802, over 149 PA since then Chourio is at... 106 BB+ | 80 K+ | 125 AVG+ | 168 ISO+ | 160 wRC+ Insane how kid just keeps getting better and better, upping his walk rate and power production substantially with a minimal tradeoff on batting average and strikeouts over the last five weeks.
  16. sveumrules
    Obviously a tiny sample, but Braylon Payne has five singles, five RBI, four stolen bags, three runs scored, two walks, a double and a triple over his first three games as the youngest player in the Carolina League. His 583/643/833 triple slash shakes out to a 315 wRC+.
  17. sveumrules
    1 W - 0 L
  18. sveumrules
    BuT tHe PrE dRaFt RaNkInGs
  19. sveumrules
    Eventful bottom of the first for Carolina as Yophery walked (wild pitch), Marco Dinges was hit by a pitch and subbed out for Miguel Briceno, Bitonti walked, Braylon Payne walked (1-0), David Garcia walked (2-0), Daniel Guilarte sac fly (3-0), wild pitch (4-0), Reece Walling home run (6-0), Yhoswar single and stolen base. Hopefully Marco Dinges is alright and one of our MiLB viewers can fill in the details.
  20. sveumrules
    Nice proposal. A lot would probably depend on how the Brewers view Miranda’s glove at 3B. DRS has him at an even zero over his 1,173 career innings, but OAA is a little harsher at -12 which ranks 29th of 32 third basemen from 2022-24 with at least 1,000 innings. Could also see the Brewers holding onto their OF depth given Mitchell’s injury history and some uncertainty about how Yelich will bounce back.
  21. sveumrules
    Still kind of crazy to look at how the Brewers have performed around their three game losing streaks this year… start 10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 8-2 (0-3) 2-1 (0-3) 13-7 (0-3) 14-5 (0-3) ??? Can they not only stave off a four gamer for the ninth time this year, but also answer back with a nice extended run like they did in six of the previous eight instances? Stay tuned, I guess.
  22. sveumrules
    He’s mostly been a level per year in his progression. 2017 was the island with a taste of AZ at the end. 2018 was AZ, 2019 was Pioneer League, 2020 was 2020, 2021 low A, 2022 hurt most of the year but reached A+, 2023 mostly A+ with a promotion to AA. Main thing holding him back from being promoted more aggressively was probably his 28% K rate from 2017-22. Last two years he has trimmed that considerably down to 18.6%.
  23. sveumrules
    Adames is on pace to finish around five WAR on FanGraphs. Even with his slow start Chourio is on pace for four WAR this year. But he’s been playing at a seven WAR pace since June. If he did tally seven WAR in 2025 that would make up for three of Willy’s lost WAR. Yelich put up three WAR in a little under half a season, 73 games. If (BIG IF) he comes back and doubles his playing time at the same level of production that would cover the rest with an extra win to spare. Hoskins bouncing back to his career norms from prior to this year would be another way to get a couple wins back.
  24. sveumrules
    Skenes should be fine on IP. Had 129.1 last year between LSU and post-draft minor league appearances. Is at 147.1 so far this year between AAA and MLB with four scheduled starts remaining. Maybe they skip or abbreviate the very last one (currently lined up to be in Yankee Stadium) but getting him up into the 160's in IP is a reasonable jump from last season and sets him up to throw a full compliment next year.
  25. sveumrules
    The primary factor driving the difference between the Brewers World Series Odds derived from the projections on FanGraphs (3.4% currently) versus their WS Odds derived from season to date stats (11.6% currently) is that the projections don't believe the Brewers MLB best FIP beating capabilities (3.60 ERA vs 4.27 FIP) will continue moving forward with their depth charts projecting a 4.11 ERA vs 4.13 FIP rest of season.
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