sveumrules

Major League wRC+ is yes, but minor league wRC+ is just league adjusted. International League OPS has ranged from .750 to .794 the last three years versus .804 to .822 for the PCL.

Darrien Miller? Has he leapfrogged Wes Clarke in the catcher rankings?

With Hiura back in MLB and taking over the Misc News thread, I thought now might be as good a time as any to see how Keston's success in AAA over the last few years might translate (or not) to the MLB level. Methodology is pretty straight forward. I took the 466 AAA batters with at least 500 PAs since 2021 on the FanGraphs leaderboard, sorted them by wRC+, and then clicked over to see what their MLB results were over the same 2021-24 time period. Turns out Keston is one of 34 hitters with at least a 130 wRC+ in AAA over that stretch... Jake Cave AAA (684 PAs) 149 wRC+ MLB (732 PAs) 66 wRC+ Brent Rooker AAA (632 PAs) 149 wRC+ MLB (1,092 PAs) 124 wRC+ Henry Ramos AAA (621 PAs) 147 wRC+ MLB (141 PAs) 70 wRC+ Matt Davidson AAA (738 PAs) 146 wRC+ MLB (37 PAs) 54 wRC+ Abraham Almonte AAA (602 PAs) 145 wRC+ MLB (228 PAs) 88 wRC+ Jonathan Aranda AAA (1,015 PAs) 144 wRC+ MLB (242 PAs) 87 wRC+ Josh Lowe AAA (876 PAs) 143 wRC+ MLB (845 PAs) 114 wRC+ Luke Raley AAA (586 PAs) 142 wRC+ MLB (795 PAs) 112 wRC+ Franchy Cordero AAA (821 PAs) 140 wRC+ MLB (482 PAs) 73 wRC+ Jonah Bride AAA (731 PAs) 139 wRC+ MLB (312 PAs) 58 wRC+ Spencer Horwitz AAA (945 PAs) 138 wRC+ MLB (142 PAs) 149 wRC+ Coby Mayo AAA (536 PAs) 138 wRC+ MLB (yet to debut) Elehuris Montero AAA (596 PAs) 136 wRC+ MLB (739 PAs) 67 wRC+ Vaughn Grissom AAA (504 PAs) 135 wRC+ MLB (323 PAs) 78 wRC+ Mark Vientos AAA (872 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (448 PAs) 102 wRC+ Jake McCarthy AAA (598 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (971 PAs) 103 wRC+ Aderlin Rodriguez AAA (682 PAs) 134 wRC+ MLB (never got called up) JJ Bleday AAA (500 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (906 PAs) 94 wRC+ Taylor Motter AAA (888 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (117 PAs) 28 wRC+ Keston Hiura AAA (915 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (475 PAs) 89 wRC+ Zach Reks AAA (519 PAs) 133 wRC+ MLB (44 PAs) 19 wRC+ Cooper Hummel AAA (1,187 PAs) 132 wRC+ MLB (235 PAs) 53 wRC+ Ben Gamel AAA (562 PAs) 132 wRC+ MLB (846 PAs) 96 wRC+ Ivan Herrera AAA (667 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (258 PAs) 101 wRC+ Nick Gonzales AAA (580 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (335 PAs) 87 wRC+ Michael Stefanic AAA (1,373 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (175 PAs) 74 wRC+ Heston Kjerstad AAA (595 PAs) 131 wRC+ MLB (84 PAs) 140 wRC+ Joshua Palacios AAA (578 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (370 PAs) 78 wRC+ Justyn-Henry Malloy AAA (839 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (89 PAs) 91 wRC+ Miguel Vargas AAA (996 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (407 PAs) 89 wRC+ Yonathan Perlaza AAA (543 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (currently in KBO) Eddy Alvarez AAA (882 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (142 PAs) 45 wRC+ Miguel Andujar AAA (844 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (552 PAs) 89 wRC+ Jordan Westburg AAA (714 PAs) 130 wRC+ MLB (573 PAs) 120 wRC+ So of the 34 I am counting three legit Orioles prospects, five around average-ish bats (Herrera, Gamel, Bleday, McCarthy, Vientos), two above average bats (Lowe, Raley), one good bat (Rooker) and one star level bat (Horwitz). That leaves 22 of the 34 very best AAA hitters over the last four years who haven't been able to clear even a lowly 94 wRC+ when called up to MLB.

I think the Brewers will add an infielder to upgrade the Monasterio spot too. Somebody like Paul DeJong or Amed Rosario comes to mind.

Among 114 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2022, Skubal comes in 2nd with a 63 FIP-. The only guy better than him is an injured Spencer Strider (60 FIP-) with a big gap down to Kevin Gausman in 3rd with a 70 FIP-. You can’t trade for players of that calibre by clearing 40 man space, think the Corbin Burnes package then double it and you might pique the Tigers interest.

I just don’t see the Tigers dealing Skubal. They’ve been trying to convince their fans they are serious about returning to relevance since hiring Hinch in 2021, then signing Baez/Rodriguez for $200M+ in 2022. Trade Tarik now and that’s admitting the last four years were a failure and you don’t see things getting better for at least two more, probably longer.

Hiura posted an 82 wRC+ over 199 PAs with Toledo - that is pretty terrible.

Hiura hit for a 139 wRC+ with a .402 BABIP and 30.7 K% his rookie year (348 PAs). Since then he has hit for an 88 wRC+ with a .302 BABIP and 38.2 K% (717 PAs). Keston's subsequent performance has rendered his rookie year performance of minimal predictive value, especially when considering how juiced the ball was in 2019 (.769 league OPS) versus now in 2024 (.707 league OPS).

If it were really that simple Hiura wouldn't have a .207 batting average and 38.2 K% in the 717 major league plate appearances he has taken since his rookie season.

In addition to the huge Jesus Made game for DSL Uno, 17yo pitcher Manuel Moreno finished off the final four innings scoreless with only one hit allowed and five strikeouts to pick up his third win of the season and lower his ERA to 2.04.

On August 22nd of 2022 Hiura's OPS was .867. He closed out the season hitting 191/258/321 (.579 OPS) with 37 K in 93 PA. I hope that Hiura can figure it out with the Angels, but as long as pitchers can consistently execute up in the zone I think he'll come in a lot closer to the 88 wRC+ and 38.5 K% he posted from 2020-22 than the 139 wRC+ and 30.7 K% he posted in 2019.

Angels, A’s and White Sox bottom three is pretty hilarious. At least the Rockies & Marlins affiliates can win some games.

Brewers in the midst of their sixth three game losing streak of the season. In each of the previous five instances they have won the fourth game. Here is how the Brewers season has played out so far around those three game losing streaks… 10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 8-2 (0-3) ???

& a Lara single walks it off for Wisco !!

Jheremy stole second and has now moved to third on a wild pitch that also scored Tayden from third to tie things up.

Eduarqui struck out, but Jheremy has singled to put runners on the corners one down.

Hall lead off single, that’s a start.

Manfredi bounces back and strikes out the next two batters to end the inning. Will be up to Tayden Hall, Eduarqui Fernandez and Jheremy Vargas (combined 4 for 9 with a 2B and HR today) to get things started with Luis Lara (2 for 4, 3B, HR) waiting if somebody can get on.

Mark Manfredi gets the call to try and lock down the 4 to 3 TRats victory, but has walked a pair around a strikeout to start things off. A wild pitch & double later Wisco trails 5 to 4.

Aaron Rund gave up the game tying run in the top of the eighth, but Luis Lara picked him up by leading off the bottom half with his first round tripper of the year. Now 4 to 3 Wisco with Luke Adams on second after walking for the second time then stealing a bag, and a Matthew Wood walk has just backfilled first base with Felix Valerio on to pinch run, one out.

Garrett Stallings finished up with 3.1 IP of scoreless relief (2 H | 1 BB | 2 K) before giving way to Mitch White who gets the last two outs of the 4 to 1 Sounds win.

Craig Yoho on to try and nail down the 2 to 1 Biloxi victory bottom of nine. First batter fouls off six straight oh two pitches, takes three balls to work the count full, and fouls off another pitch for good measure before finally grounding out 5-3. Yoho gets the second batter looking and the third man up has just reached on an Ernesto Martinez Jr. error. No matter, Craig comes back and gets a popout to end the game and pick up his second Shuckers save.

TRats leading 3 to 2 through six. A Luis Lara triple and Matthew Wood sac fly got the first run home with the other two coming via a Tayden Hall double and Eduarqui Fernandez homer. Joe Ross went 2.2 IP with 1 UER | 3 H | 0 BB | 1 K in his rehab start. Yujanyer Herrera has followed with 3.0 IP of 1 R | 4 H | 1 BB | 4 K work.

Nashville up 4 to 1 through six. A Tyler Black single and Brewer Hicklen blast accounted for two in the first with a bases loaded Black double driving home two more in the sixth. Evan McKendry went five strong with 1 ER | 3 H | 3 BB | 3 K with Garrett Stallings on for a second inning of work after putting up a zero in the sixth.

A Nick Kahle walk followed by a bomb from newcomer Connor Scott has given Biloxi a 2 to 1 lead top of eight. Final line for Misio was 6.1 IP | 1 ER | 2 H | 2 BB | 10 K with a lead off walk bottom of seven that came around to score once Nate Peterson took over accounting for the lone run.