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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    This seems like a rather large assumption about a guy who once punched a wall after clinching the division.
  2. sveumrules
    I love Adams and had him highest rated out of the third base prospects in the system, but there a couple things that give me pause. There’s a little of that Darrien Miller in there where his profile is so walk and HBP heavy (40 plunks, MLB leader was Arozarena with 22) so that will taper off on the way up. Adams is considerably younger with more power so his walk rate should hold up better, but even there he was at 18.7% this year which is Soto/Judge territory in MLB. Then it’s a gap to Schwarber (15.3%) before another gap down to guys like India/Lowe (12.6%), Winker (12.4%), Freeman (12.2%), Harper (12.0%), Mookie (11.8%), Contreras (11.5%), etc so realistically that’s still Iike a six seven percent drop in a best case scenario by the time he hits MLB. The other red flag for me in his offensive profile is he now has 858 PAs the last two years with a .289 BABIP. The pop ups Spencer mentioned are probably a big part of that.
  3. sveumrules
    During his seven year peak from 1981-87 Fernando threw 1,788 innings. Wade Miley has 1,745 IP over a 14 year career. Sonny Gray is at 1,737 IP over his 12 years in the bigs. The most innings anyone has over the last seven full seasons (plus the sixty game COVID year) is Aaron Nola with 1,432.
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah, Boston is clearly the class of the East and the whole Association. Philly and New York have gotten the offseason hype because of their big moves, but Embiid is still a fraud and New York certainly didn't look much improved on opening night. I'll take a healthy Giannis, Dame and Khris against anybody just a matter of crossing our fingers and praying for eighty two regular season games. The Bucks might not be the favorites, but they have superstars so they at least have a chance. Purgatory in the NBA was the Kohl years. Crazy how fast some forget.
  5. sveumrules
    I'd say DH/1B are more question marks than massive holes. The players who are going to take those PAs are likely already on the roster between Hoskins, Yelich and Contreras with Black as a candidate to fill the Bauers roll from last year. They might bring in some depth around the margins for the 1B/DH group, but the only real massive hole they are likely to devote offseason resources to is replacing Willy.
  6. sveumrules
    I wouldn't be too interested in Rafaela personally. 660 MLB PAs now with a 79 wRC+ and ugly 2.9 BB% versus 27.1 K%. Outfield defense has graded out really well (+12 DRS | +7 FRV in 751 innings), but I'm not sure he's really an infielder with -3 DRS and -6 FRV in his 692 innings at SS.
  7. sveumrules
    Looking at the Red Sox prospects I think a Devin return would be something like...Jedixson Paez (20yo RHP with 96.2 IP of 3.17 FIP with a 29.0 K% and 3.1 BB% between A/A+) and either David Sandlin (23yo Big Stuff development RHP) or Chase Meidroth (23 yo IF who put up a 132 wRC+ in AAA with an 18.8 BB% and 12.7 K%).
  8. sveumrules
    Darrien Miller is a catcher who can't throw anyone out and whose primary offensive skill is getting HBPs. That's like the 2009 Jason Kendall starter kit. He won't keep walking at a 15.9% clip with only a .078 ISO to back it up as he faces more advanced pitching.
  9. sveumrules
    Better than hiring Steve Lyons and dropping the pants, I guess??
  10. sveumrules
    Based on the tally RoMu put together in the voting thread it looks like Jadher just missed at #21 by around four points. Though I believe there might be author balloting in addition to the votes published in the thread?
  11. sveumrules
    Agreed. The Giants just signed a very similar player in Matt Chapman and I think Buster Posey will be similarly aggressive this winter. I'd maybe have them at 40%. Braves were in a lot stronger place organizationally when they let Dansby walk. The WS win was only one year ago instead of three. They also only got a 70 wRC+ (28th) and 0.7 WAR (26th) out of their shortstops last year so they have a little more desperation than the Dodgers. I'd say ATL (25%) and LAD (20%) which leaves 15% for the field or the always lurking mystery team. My favorite dark horse to sign Willy is the Pirates. They have the money, they don't have a SS, and what better way to tell your fans you are serious about competing during the Skenes years than by signing the "team leader" away from the team that has dominated the NLC for the last four years he's been here.
  12. sveumrules
    Think right now the hope would be he becomes something like Frelick at the plate with Perkins defense? That’d be a fine 3rd starting OF or a high end 4th OF kind of outcome. Problem is Frelick needs really good plate discipline (his 0.58 BB/K ranks 37th of 271 players min. 500 PA the last two years) and base running (+4.4 BsR | 42nd) to overcome his complete lack of power (.084 ISO | 268th). Lara hasn’t quite displayed either of those traits to the same levels Sal did in the minors… Lara MiLB 9.5 BB% | 14.9 K% 0.64 BB/K 82 SB / 31 CS Frelick MiLB 10.3 BB% | 11.8 K% 0.88 BB/K 44 SB / 14 CS Obviously the big difference is Sal was an older player farther up the ladder and Luis is still a teenager for another month so he has time on his side, but for now it looks like his offense will come down to how his hit tool shakes out which is a lot riskier without the plate discipline buttressing things.
  13. sveumrules
    Agreed. With one more year of team control over Edman at $9.5M, plus a $5M team option on Rojas coming off a 111 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR season, I’d probably put the Dodgers behind both the Giants and Braves among the potential Adames destinations.
  14. sveumrules
    There are 46 players with at least 600 innings playing third base the last two years. Monasterio has graded out at +4 DRS (17th) and -1 FRV (31st). I’d guess the Brewers internal evaluations are closer to the DRS number otherwise they wouldn’t have kept him around as the primary backup IF last year and given him 142 PAs with a 68 wRC+. McMahon has come in at +27 DRS (3rd) and +14 FRV (2nd). He’s right up there with Ke’Bryan Hayes and Matt Chapman among the games best hot corner defenders.
  15. sveumrules
    They should change it so you get points for doinks. It’s a lot harder to hit one of those skinny little poles than it is to kick it into the big empty space in between them. I’d do two points for a doink that doesn’t go through on a field goal try, and four points for doinked field goal that does go through. It would inject a fun chaos element, introduce additional gambling line items and most importantly allow for this scenario… …two seconds on the clock down three points the trailing team lines up for the game tying kick, it’s up…and it’s off the upright…but goes through for a four point doink off win.
  16. sveumrules
    League average wRC+ at 3B has gone from 100 in 2021 to 105 in 2022 to 96 in 2023 to 97 last year. McMahon has a 101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021 so he has essentially been average as long as he doesn't face lefties (only a 71 wRC+ against southpaws).
  17. sveumrules
    At the deadline seemed like a lot of people thought the Cardinals stole Fedde giving up only Edman, but here we are now and STL went 3 W - 7 L in Fedde's 10 starts and Edman just won NLCS MVP.
  18. sveumrules
    Everyone has struggles (except John Rocker and Joe Niekro apparently). Whatever struggle Rivera experienced in the postseason was exponentially less than any player ever. Any Yankee fan still clinging to his tiny percentage of unawesome games over the five World Series titles is probably pretty miserable to be around anyway.
  19. sveumrules
    Two pitchers in postseason history have thrown at least 20 innings with a 0.00 ERA. John Rocker and Joe Niekro.
  20. sveumrules
    People complain when a couple wild cards that don’t deserve it get there like last year. People complain when the two dominant historic franchises that were both number one seeds get there. People complain.
  21. sveumrules
    141 innings with a 0.70 ERA in the postseason. Put up a zero eighty six times, allowed one earned nine times. Only gave up two earned once. Was credited with one single solitary loss versus eight wins and forty two saves (twenty nine of which were four outs or more) in ninety six appearances. His +11.38 Win Probability Added in the postseason is more than Schilling (+4.07), Smoltz (+3.35) and Pettite (+3.20) have combined in second through fourth place. Hard for me to classify that as struggles plural.
  22. sveumrules
    There are 275 relievers with at least 100 IP in the 2020's. Devin's at... 222 IP (45th) | 179 K%+ (2nd) | 139 BB%+ (244th) | 44 HR9+ (11th) | 59 AVG+ (1st) | 41 ERA- (2nd) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 59 xFIP- (3rd) | 2.55 SIERA (6th) | 9.4 rWAR (2nd) | 7.6 fWAR (2nd) | +14.40 WPA (1st) The only real blemish to his regular season record has been missing time this year and walking too many guys. Other than that it's pretty elite across the board. Edwin Diaz has him beat in K%+ (182), FIP- (51) and xFIP- (57). Clase has him beat in ERA- (39), rWAR (9.5), and fWAR (8.5). But their combined WPA (+9.24 for Clase and +4.74 for Diaz) is still less than Devin has by himself.
  23. sveumrules
    It's kind of funny looking at Adames, Turang and Ortiz specifically... DRS says Adames (-16), Turang (+21), and Ortiz (+7) for a combined total of +12. FRV says Adames (0), Turang (+4), and Ortiz (+8) also summing up to +12. Both systems are getting to the same end result, just in drastically different ways (at least with regards to Adames and Turang).
  24. sveumrules
    Position Player Locks next year... C (2): Contreras, Haase...Quero in waiting IF (3): Hoskins, Turang, Ortiz OF (5) : Yelich, Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Perkins I would guess Black takes over the Bauers role, that's eleven. I'd prefer an upgrade over Monasterio, but he's lined up for twelve. Only spot I really see them devoting resources to is Adames replacement.
  25. sveumrules
    Last two years the Brewers +58 DRS and +43 FRV from their outfielders are both 2nd best in MLB. I think they prefer having multiple CFers out there for run prevention purposes. Perkins and Frelick derive most of their value from being plus OF defenders, but Mitchell hit for a 126 wRC+ last year and is at a 123 wRC+ for his career so he has plenty of bat for the other corner spot opposite Chourio when Yelich is DHing.
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