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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Well dang, the Brewers went and won themselves 93 games. How they do that? I thought it might be interesting to see how exactly they got there so I split the roster up into departing players, holdovers and new additions. Then split those groups into pitcher and position player groups. Here's what all that looks like...
  2. sveumrules
    Wenderlyn King was ROBBED. K% Wenderlyn (25.9%) Jaquez (23.6%) Aparicio (21.0%) Bravo (18.9%) BB% Wenderlyn (3.6%) Aparicio (5.6%) Bravo (8.9%) Jaquez (13.0%) HR/9 Wenderlyn (0.24) Jaquez (0.29) Bravo (0.40) Aparicio (0.94) FIP Wenderlyn (3.07) Bravo (4.24) Aparicio (4.37) Jaquez (4.65) I'd have King, Wande Torres and Hayden Robinson as the top three with a decent bit of separation between them and everyone else because their results were just on a whole different level. I'd probably have Melvin Hernandez ahead of everyone in the article too. Only 17 this season but already put up 46 IP with a 3.81 FIP in Arizona while everyone else was still on the island.
  3. sveumrules
    Narv Dawg could swing it too. 4th all time among Brewers pitchers (min. 50 PAs ) with a 44 wRC+, just fractions ahead of Sabathia (42 wRC+) and Gallardo (41 wRC+). He had as many RBI (12) as Sheets in 362 fewer PAs. Randy Wolf and Zack Greinke are the only Brewers pitchers to record a stolen base. Can't help but wonder if maybe they had some kind of contest going on similar to their gentlemanly rivalry over who could throw the slowest curveball.
  4. sveumrules
    They can proudly display their Week Four Champions trophy in the lobby.
  5. sveumrules
    Beating the always hated Cardinals and Counsell managed Cubs 8 W - 5 L each in the season series was pretty sweet. Rocking Stearns Mets and their $340M payroll 5 W - 0 L has been a whole other sensation.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, it’s small samples all around… 23 at 2B 197 inn | +2 DRS 24 at 2B 118 inn | +2 DRS 23 at 3B 456 inn | +6 DRS 24 at 3B 164 inn | -2 DRS …definitely better last year than this year at 3B, but like you said 2023 is also the largest of his individual samples by a considerable amount. Also did much better last year vs LHP with a 118 wRC+ over 93 PAs compared to only a 68 wRC+ over 67 PAs vs LHP this year.
  7. sveumrules
    +8 DRS the last two years in 935 innings at 2B/3B.
  8. sveumrules
    For whatever it is or isn't worth, Pythag says the Cubs had played five wins below their run differential entering today. Give the Cubs five extra wins and they are right in the thick of the Wild Card race.
  9. sveumrules
    So you exchange Patrick for one of the pitchers currently on the roster.
  10. sveumrules
    - 2 DRS this year at 2B is maybe live-with-able if the bat bounces back, but if the Brewers view his defense closer to the -8 FRV he has posted this year at 2B (-20 FRV for his career there) its probably a no go from the start.
  11. sveumrules
    Bregman is red flag central for me. 137 wRC+ in 2022, to 126 wRC+ in 2023, to 116 wRC+ this year. His power is almost entirely a product of the short LF porch in Houston. 7.0 BB% this year compared to 13.0% the last two years and 11.9% for his career. Will be 31 on Opening Day next year.
  12. sveumrules
    If Mother Nature is with us...who could possibly be against us?
  13. sveumrules
    Should have spent less on payroll and more on a roof.
  14. sveumrules
    Game of Runs, Season of Streaks Royals Highpoint 0827: 75 W - 58 L since: 8 W - 16 L Twins Highpoint 0817: 70 W - 53 L since: 11 W - 23 L Tigers Lowpoint 0704: 43 W - 49 L since: 44 W - 26 L DBacks Lowpoint 0531: 25 W - 32 L since: 62 W - 39 L Padres Midpoint 0719: 50 W - 50 L since: 41 W - 16 L Mets Lowpoint 0602: 24 W - 35 L since: 63 W - 35 L Orioles Highpoint 0707: 57 W - 33 L since: 30 W - 37 L Astros Lowpoint 0508: 12 W - 24 L since: 73 W - 49 L The Brewers have had a few bad weeks here and there no doubt, but looking at some of those splits it definitely seems like their season has been a lot less Jekyll & Hyde in nature compared to most of the other contenders.
  15. sveumrules
    Sanchez was at 38 PAs of 118/184/206 (9 wRC+) in September before tonight’s ohfer five four strikeout effort. Haase has done nothing but rake in his limited opportunities with a 138 wRC+ over 62 PAs on the year and a 152 wRC+ over 15 PAs this month. I’d give him a couple games each behind the dish and at DH over this last week to see if he can keep it up. Bauers had a couple big hits recently but outside of that he’s been pretty brutal this month too with 41 PAs of 162/244/162 (21 wRC+) so not like it’s a high bar to clear.
  16. sveumrules
    @homer not sure if this is exactly what you were after with the second part of your comment, but here is a look at how the Brewers have performed with different leadoff hitters along with their individual numbers while batting leadoff. First, for some context, league average out of the leadoff spot is currently at 255/326/412 (108 wRC+) with about 97 runs, 21 HR, and 21 SB. Brewers leadoff hitters have struggled to the tune of 243/309/379 for a 92 wRC+ (25th) with 91 runs (20th), 14 HR (26th), and 40 SB (2nd). As to the individual results… Andruw Monasterio (1 W - 2 L | 2.33 R/G) 18 PA | 58 wRC+ Oliver Dunn (3 W - 1 L | 10.0 R/G) 20 PA | 44 wRC+ William Contreras (4 W - 4 L | 4.63 R/G) 36 PA | 163 wRC+ Joey Ortiz (6 W - 3 L | 3.89 R/G) 45 PA | 76 wRC+ Sal Frelick (12 W - 7 L | 4.26 R/G) 81 PA | 38 wRC+ Jackson Chourio (16 W - 15 L | 4.65 R/G) 143 PA | 108 wRC+ Brice Turang (47 W - 35 L | 4.95 R/G) 370 PA | 95 wRC+
  17. sveumrules
    Jackson’s minor league splits were… 2023 .818 OPS vsR (407 PAs) .772 OPS vsL (176 PAs) 2022 .924 OPS vsR (357 PAs) .677 OPS vsL (82 PAs) …so he might just be a reverse split guy, though I’d still guess that he will improve on the 88 wRC+ vs LHP that he has posted this year as he gets older / better / more experienced. Kinda hard to put together a good lineup vs LHP based on this years performances, especially with Yelich (153 wRC+ vs LHP) dunzo. Maybe something like… Chourio (88) Perkins (105) Ortiz (122) Contreras (151) Hoskins (101) Adames (69) Sanchez (99) Sal (85) / Mitch (80) Turang (61)
  18. sveumrules
    There are only three pitchers on the MLB Top 50 for 2025 at #38, 39 and 45. Looking at their 2024 Top 50 there were just two at #25 and 35. 2023 had Luis Morales at #5 but he was a 22 year old Cuban, then 20yo Jun-Seok Shim who skipped the KBO draft at #10, Janero Miller was #16 as a two way player, then there were four pitchers at #36, 41, 42 and 49. 2022 had two pitchers at #31 and 37. Top ranked international pitching prospects just aren’t really a thing.
  19. sveumrules
    Think it was a little bit of that mixed with no real pressing need after the rotation solidified at the deadline with the addition of Montas. Brewers also like to slow roll their SP prospects a little bit of late with Gasser spending all of last year at AAA and Myers spending most all of 2023 at AA despite both of them leading their respective leagues in strikeouts.
  20. sveumrules
    Not sure. Believe either BA or BPro does minor league park factors, but I’m not a subscribe to either.
  21. sveumrules
    Ryan McMahon has 3yrs/$44M left on his deal and definitely would fit the run prevention formula with his +48 DRS and +27 FRV both ranking 2nd among all 3B since 2021. Bat is consistently blah though with a 92 wRC+ this year, and a 90 wRC+ for his career, and a seasonal best of 97 wRC+. Rockies are always tricky to line up with, but we just dealt with them at the deadline so who knows. A guy that’s kind of the opposite is Brandon Lowe who TBR could be looking to deal with two team options totaling $22M on tap. Lowe has a 123 wRC+ this year, and a 126 wRC+ for his career and a seasonal worst of 103 wRC+. Problems have been staying healthy, mediocre production vs LHP (97 wRC+ since 2021), and being kind of a 2B/1B/DH defensive nomad.
  22. sveumrules
    Maybe Murph’s nickname should be The Sherpa.
  23. sveumrules
    Cots says the Reds have $50M in guarantees on the books for next year with no big ticket Arby’s guys lined up. FanGraphs has their DH production bottom two in MLB, their 1B bottom four, and their OF bottom five. If they were serious about surrounding EDLC & their young core with talent they could go out and sign two of Santander, Alonso, Teoscar or Walker and get payroll back to 2019/21 levels after two years of reduced spending running bottom five and three payrolls in 2023/24. Same logic applies to the Pirates with Skenes. You wanna announce to your fans and the baseball world that you’re trying to win the NLC? Sign Adames plus one of those guys above.
  24. sveumrules
    Dysfunction junction what’s your function? Amazing how much flak Attanasio catches from some Brewers fans when the NLC has two legit bottom half dozen or so owners in the entire sport (Castellini & Nutting) showing them how bad things could easily be round these parts.
  25. sveumrules
    Mitchell was at 1.7 WAR on FanGraphs over 207 PAs entering today, that is a 5 WAR per 600 PAs pace. Of the 169 players with at least 1.5 WAR so far this year his 207 PAs are the fewest with Jose Trevino (227 PAs) next lowest and only 14 of those 169 players coming in under 300 PAs. He’s already a small sample star, at this point it’s just a matter of keeping it up and staying healthy.
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