sveumrules

Carolina tallied eleven hits all singles with the aforementioned Miguel Briceno, Jose Acosta and Reidy Mercado collecting a pair each (Acosta & Mercado added a BB/SB each too) while Blayberg Diaz went for the hat trick. Filippo Di Turi also chipped in a walk and two sac flies.

A 9 to 5 lead was a big enough margin for the Mudcats to bring in Miguel Briceno to pitch the bottom of the ninth and he went ground out, HBP, double play to seal the deal in his fourth mound appearance of the season.

Pretty appropriate that what are ostensibly our 6th starter and 6th reliever would combine for the team’s 12th shutout of the year.

Manager won’t make much difference as long as Nutting and Castellini are signing the checks.

On July 3rd Turang still had a season line of 292/354/415 (116 wRC+) over 336 PAs. Since then he is at 173 PAs of 179/246/244 (39 wRC+). Pretty crazy the Brewers have still managed to go 26 W - 21 L since July 4th even with their leadoff guy hitting worse than Chris Narveson's 229/270/259 (44 wRC+) career line with the Brewers.

Brewers have played 134 games now. Here is Turang through the first 67 team games compared to last 67 so the samples are a little more even from a games standpoint... F67: 244 PA of 296/361/407 with 23 SB / 1 CS L67: 265 PA of 216/278/311 with 14 SB / 5 CS I'd guess Turang is running less of late due to a combination of being on base less, hitting at the top of the order, being thrown out with more frequency and probably just some good old fashioned fatigue in there.

Joe Ross with his eleven innings of 0.82 ERA | 2.53 FIP as a reliever.

Jackson has way more power than Lorenzo. Entering the game Chourio has a .171 Isolated Slugging as a 20 year old. Cain only reached a .171 Isolated Slugging once in his career and it wasn't until he was a grown man in his age 29 season with 1,369 PAs already under his belt.

How did Chourio look running to first on his single or pursuing the batted balls to left field since whatever happened at first base his last time up?

Ortiz has a 72 wRC+ in 138 PAs post-ASB entering the game. If we're using how players have performed since the break I'd say the closest to an ideal lineup would be something like... Chourio (153 PAs | 154 wRC+) Contreras (155 PAs | 153 wRC+) Mitchell (108 PAs | 110 wRC+) Adames (151 PAs | 139 wRC+) Sanchez (58 PAs | 160 wRC+) Perkins (58 PAs | 120 wRC+) Bauers (71 PAs | 89 wRC+) or Hoskins (129 PA | 85 wRC+) Ortiz (138 PAs | 72 wRC+) Turang (134 PAs | 44 wRC+) Bench Haase (24 PAs | 141 wRC+) Monasterio (29 PAs | 112 wRC+) Frelick (117 PAs | 69 wRC+)

With seven shutout innings from Civale last night the Brewers post-ASB rotation has a 78 ERA- (tied with HOU for best in MLB) and 4.2 rWAR (3rd). On the season as a whole they are at a 94 ERA- (8th) and 10.6 rWAR (13th), just fractions behind DET (10.8 rWAR) for the last spot in the Top Ten. The BAL rotation fronted by Corbin Burnes has a 98 ERA- and 10.0 rWAR.

Fifth game of the year that the Brewers have allowed two hits or fewer.

Civale (First Five Starts) 25 IP | 15 ER | 5.40 ERA Team went 1 W - 4 L Civale (Last Four Starts) 23.1 IP | 5 ER | 1.93 ERA Team is six outs from 4 W - 0 L

Brewers cashed in on their Vegas O/U with their 76th win last night...before the calendar flipped to September...with 30 games still left to play. On the season the rotation has posted a 95 ERA- (8th) and 10.2 rWAR (14th). In the second half they have picked it up to the tune of an 81 ERA- (3rd) and 3.7 rWAR (6th).

My guess is Boras will push for 8/250 and teams will be hesitant to go much over 7/200.

If it makes you feel any better about Avina he has tanked pretty hard after a fast start at A+ with his July numbers extra brutal. Monthly splits... Apr: 47 PA | 1011 OPS May: 120 PA | 880 OPS Jun: 104 PA | 746 OPS Jul: 79 PA | 274 OPS !! Aug: 47 PA | 719 OPS Altogether that is 167 PA of 157 wRC+ with a 10.8 BB% and 25.1 K% through May and then 230 PA of 66 wRC+ with a 6.1 BB% and 28.7 K% from June onward.

Not So Fun Facts Webb has owned the Brewers thus far in his career with 4 GS | 94 PA of 169/213/292 representing his lowest OPS allowed of any team faced. His two GS at AmFam have been even more dominant with 48 PA of 152/188/283 representing his lowest OPS allowed in any stadium he’s pitched in more than once.

Think he’s referring to their Pythagorean record derived from run differential. So far this year they are -1 win versus +2 wins last year, +1 win in 2022, +2 wins in 2021. They haven’t really deviated big time from their pythag since 2019 at +8 wins.

Chourio has more or less replaced Yelich's impact by taking his game up a couple two tree levels. Offense has been virtually identical first half to second half... Brewers pre-ASB 106 wRC+ | 4.80 R/G Brewers post-ASB 107 wRC+ | 4.85 R/G Breaking it down a little more to Christian's specific injury timeline they put up a 104 wRC+ | 4.71 R/G from when Christian came back off the IL on May 8th through when he went back on July 23rd and have hit for a 109 wRC+ | 4.90 R/G over the last month without him in the lineup.

Natural inclination is Hicklen because a righty hitting OF makes more sense on paper than a lefty hitting DH/1B, but Brewer has pretty big reverse splits this year with an 898 OPS vs RHP compared to a 676 OPS vs LHP. He’s had more even splits in the past with a 787 rOPS vs 845 lOPS last year and an 853 rOPS vs 811 lOPS in 2022 so could just be some small lefty sample weirdness going on with this year’s flipped splits.

Yoho isn’t listed on the Depth Charts yet, but he does have a Steamer projection on his player page. 3.33 ERA is tied for 39th among relievers on the Rest of Season leaderboard. 3.39 FIP (37th) | 28.6 K% (35th) | .219 AVG (43rd) are some of his other ranks. Hasn’t pitched an inning in MLB and already projects as more or less a Top 40 reliever in Steamer’s estimation.

ZiPS projected Cruz at .245 AVG | 70 R | 67 RBI | 19 HR | 15 SB Oneil is currently at .265 AVG | 57 R | 63 RBI | 18 HR | 17 SB He’s essentially hit all his marks with 32 games left and an extra 20 points of batting average. Tough crowd.

Pretty crazy how this team keeps on just not regressing to the mean for any meaningful amount of time. Started 10 W - 3 L. Obviously nobody thought they'd win 125 games this year. Yelich got hurt and they went 11 W - 12 L from April 14th until May 8th. That's more like it. At that point they were 21 W - 15 L, still a 95 win pace. Nobody thought they'd win 95 coming into the year, so more regression had to be right around the corner, right? Nope, Brewers proceeded to go 31 W- 20 L over the next almost two months through July 3rd, which bumped them up to a 97 win pace at 52 W - 35 L. Then the annual pre-ASB swoon happened, 3 W - 7 L, dropping them to a 92 win pace at the break, still quite a bit ahead of pre-season expectations. No way they could possibly flip the script & keep up their first half pace after limping into the break and towards a deadline where all they did was add Nick Mears and Frankie Montas, right? Since the break they've gone 20 W - 13 L to where they stand today at 75 W - 55 L, nudging things up to about a 93 win pace.

Wow, thanks for the all the additional context, Spencer. Much appreciated.

I'm not sure any of these guys are under rated so much as under the radar, but a couple complex level bats with decent results that kind of get lost in the shuffle (not even including Juan Ortuno and his 159 wRC+)... Roderick Flores put up a 245/441/349 (132 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts in his second go around on the island at age 17 and a combined 23 SB / 5 CS in his two DSL summers. Played mostly 3B / RF / 2B in 2024. Tyler Rodriguez turned in a 277/455/361 (130 wRC+) as an 18 year old in his first season stateside. Also more walks than strikeouts and 18 SB / 5 CS in his two seasons. Played mostly SS / LF / 2B in 2024. A little higher up the ladder no prospect better demonstrates the increased depth in the system for me than Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder. Made the Top 20 in the lean years on the strength of promising bat to ball skills (with some speed and defense sprinkled in) at the lower levels, now is demonstrating those skills to the tune of 297/378/398 (129 wRC+) combined at AA/AAA again with more walks than strikeouts. Still only 23, looks like a pretty safe bet to be at least a 4th OF at some point. #13 overall pick in 2018 Connor Scott has had a resurgent 126 PAs as a Shucker with his 259/333/455 (133 wRC+) line representing the best production of his minor league career. On the pitching side a guy like 20yo RHP Jesus Broca has had a pretty rapid ascent going from the DSL to Carolina in one summer with 31 K vs 8 BB in his 23.1 combined IP amounting to a 2.52 FIP which is 7th in the system among pitchers with at least 20 IP. Believe there were some rare DSL clips of 19yo LHP Wande Torres posted recently by Brewers PD account and he put up 15.2 IP of 1.49 FIP | 1.72 ERA on the island. 18yo RHP Wenderlyn King had an impressive DSL debut with 37.2 IP of 3.07 FIP | 3.35 ERA work. Recent Indy League signing Tyler Bryant has been a fun box follow since joining the organization with 5 saves, a nice 1.69 ERA and 30 K through is first 21.1 professional IP. Obviously old for the Southern League but Sam Gardner just keeps getting outs and racking zeroes with 37 IP of 1.87 FIP | 2.19 ERA on the season. Dikember Sanchez has shoved in his first season stateside with 48.1 IP between the complex and Carolina totaling a 3.63 FIP | 2.23 ERA and 57 K vs 17 BB.