sveumrules

BuT tHe PrE dRaFt RaNkInGs

Eventful bottom of the first for Carolina as Yophery walked (wild pitch), Marco Dinges was hit by a pitch and subbed out for Miguel Briceno, Bitonti walked, Braylon Payne walked (1-0), David Garcia walked (2-0), Daniel Guilarte sac fly (3-0), wild pitch (4-0), Reece Walling home run (6-0), Yhoswar single and stolen base. Hopefully Marco Dinges is alright and one of our MiLB viewers can fill in the details.

Nice proposal. A lot would probably depend on how the Brewers view Miranda’s glove at 3B. DRS has him at an even zero over his 1,173 career innings, but OAA is a little harsher at -12 which ranks 29th of 32 third basemen from 2022-24 with at least 1,000 innings. Could also see the Brewers holding onto their OF depth given Mitchell’s injury history and some uncertainty about how Yelich will bounce back.

Still kind of crazy to look at how the Brewers have performed around their three game losing streaks this year… start 10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 8-2 (0-3) 2-1 (0-3) 13-7 (0-3) 14-5 (0-3) ??? Can they not only stave off a four gamer for the ninth time this year, but also answer back with a nice extended run like they did in six of the previous eight instances? Stay tuned, I guess.

He’s mostly been a level per year in his progression. 2017 was the island with a taste of AZ at the end. 2018 was AZ, 2019 was Pioneer League, 2020 was 2020, 2021 low A, 2022 hurt most of the year but reached A+, 2023 mostly A+ with a promotion to AA. Main thing holding him back from being promoted more aggressively was probably his 28% K rate from 2017-22. Last two years he has trimmed that considerably down to 18.6%.

Adames is on pace to finish around five WAR on FanGraphs. Even with his slow start Chourio is on pace for four WAR this year. But he’s been playing at a seven WAR pace since June. If he did tally seven WAR in 2025 that would make up for three of Willy’s lost WAR. Yelich put up three WAR in a little under half a season, 73 games. If (BIG IF) he comes back and doubles his playing time at the same level of production that would cover the rest with an extra win to spare. Hoskins bouncing back to his career norms from prior to this year would be another way to get a couple wins back.

Skenes should be fine on IP. Had 129.1 last year between LSU and post-draft minor league appearances. Is at 147.1 so far this year between AAA and MLB with four scheduled starts remaining. Maybe they skip or abbreviate the very last one (currently lined up to be in Yankee Stadium) but getting him up into the 160's in IP is a reasonable jump from last season and sets him up to throw a full compliment next year.

The primary factor driving the difference between the Brewers World Series Odds derived from the projections on FanGraphs (3.4% currently) versus their WS Odds derived from season to date stats (11.6% currently) is that the projections don't believe the Brewers MLB best FIP beating capabilities (3.60 ERA vs 4.27 FIP) will continue moving forward with their depth charts projecting a 4.11 ERA vs 4.13 FIP rest of season.

The only pitcher to throw a scoreless frame in the Mudcats 12 to 6 loss was third baseman Miguel Briceno, who worked around a walk and strikeout to earn the zero while also registering his first ever strikeout from the mound in 7.1 career innings. Also went 3 for 4 at the plate with a stolen bag, not too shabby. Not much fun in the TRats box as they trail 5 to 1 top seven with their lone tally coming on Jadher Areinamo's 10th home run of the season.

Looks like Pablo Guerrero (DOB: 7/31/2006) is the youngest position player in the Carolina League to this point. Braylon (DOB: 8/14/2006) will have him beat by a couple weeks when he makes his debut.

Final math for the Mudcats first ends up seven walks + three wild pitches + two singles + two errors + one stolen base + one balk + two strikeouts + one flyout =‘seven Carolina runs.

My preseason math was along the lines of... Offense (+6 Wins): 92 wRC+ | -62.2 batting runs in 2023 up to average 100 wRC+ | 0.00 batting runs. Rotation (-6 Wins) 15.8 rWAR in 2023 down to around 2018 (11.2 rWAR) or 2019 (9.9 rWAR) levels. Bullpen (-6 Wins): +11.73 WPA in 2023 down to around 2021 (+5.90 WPA), 2018 (+5.65 WPA) or 2019 (+5.22 WPA) levels. That essentially would have brought them in around 86 Wins which would make it their seventh straight full season winning at least that many games, one of only four teams over .500 every year of that stretch. What we've gotten so far instead... Offense: 107 wRC+ | 44.4 batting runs & counting. Rotation: 11.0 rWAR with 4.5 of that coming in the 2nd half, the third highest post-ASB total in MLB. Bullpen: +11.92 WPA, just no words. I've never been more happy to be so wrong.

Pat Hoberg called a “perfect game” in the 2022 WS.

He had a 126 wRC+ over his first 156 PAs before getting injured. From July 4th through August 10th he put up a 144 wRC+ over 104 PAs.

If Adames was willing to sign for 4/100 it would have happened already. He’s gonna be shooting for double that while hoping to settle for a something north of Dansby money, 7/177.

From April 26th to May 15th the White Sox went 11 W - 8 L. They had a couple mediocre weeks from June 7th to 18th at 5 W - 6 L. Even put together another winning stretch at 5 W - 3 L from June 27 to July 5th. They are 10 W - 90 L in their other 100 games.

Yeah, was just looking at the last time a non-Brewers team had a share of first in the NLC and it was the Cubs at 22 W - 16 L on May 8th. Then they went 17 W - 32 L through July 3rd while the Brewers went 31 W - 20 L over that same stretch. That thirteen game swing is the division at the moment. Since then the Cubs are 32 W - 18 L, making up a couple two tree games on the Mets at 31 W - 22 L and half a bakers dozen on the Braves at 27 W - 26 L for the third WC. Also looks like the Cubs lost the head to head with both NLE teams so they’ll have to clear them outright.

Pretty remarkable that the Brewers have gone 20 W - 9 L in the 29 games with Turang and his 53 wRC+ in the leadoff spot post-ASB. I’d probably be trying a lineup something like this (with post-ASB numbers)… Perkins (75 PA | 121 wRC+) Chourio (168 PA | 162 wRC+) Contreras (175 PA | 150 wRC+) Adames (170 PA | 154 wRC+) Mitchell (120 PA | 128 wRC+) Sanchez (66 PA | 134 wRC+) Hoskins (144 PA | 82 wRC+) Ortiz (149 PA | 71 wRC+) Turang (149 PA | 53 wRC+) I’d be playing Monasterio (39 PA | 107 wRC+) a little more frequently to get Ortiz and Turang some extra rest. Give Bauers (79 PA | 76 wRC+) every third game or so at 1B in favorable match ups vs RHP. Get Hicklen in the OF vs LHP to see what he’s got and Frelick (128 PA | 74 wRC+) can sub in every fourth game or so vs RHP for Mitchell and Perkins. Start Haase (29 PA | 118 wRC+) once a week behind the plate so Gary can DH more.

Welcome to the forum & good luck on your recovery.

The Cubs are 32 W - 18 L since July 4th. That’s the 2nd best record in MLB over an almost two month stretch.

Biloxi up 5 to 0 heading to bottom of the sixth with a two RBI Connor Scott double followed by a two run Ernesto Martinez Jr. bomb accounting for most of the scoring. Nate Peterson has six scoreless frames with 5 H | 1 BB | 6 K.

Small samples like Mitchell in CF and Frelick in LF are prone to more outlier results with DRS, but even zooming out to their whole careers, the Brewers have a pretty sick collection of defensive outfielders... Perkins (1175 inn.) +20 DRS | +16 FRV Frelick (1404 inn.) +16 DRS | +11 FRV Chourio (989 inn.) +12 DRS | +6 FRV Mitchell (660 inn.) +11 DRS | +4 FRV Going back to 2022 when Mitchell debuted there are 196 outfielders with at least 600 innings played. Only 29 of them have +11 DRS or more and four of those are Brewers, a fifth (Tyrone Taylor at +17) put up most of his numbers in Milwaukee too. Also aways fun to compare the results of DRS which BRef uses for their WAR calculations and FRV, which is the StatCast defensive metric used by FanGraphs for their WAR. Most of the Brewers totals are pretty close, but there are a couple of interesting divergences at the top... Adames SS (1179 inn.) -12 DRS | +1 FRV Turang 2B (1054 inn.) +22 DRS | +4 FRV Contreras C (894 inn.) +1 DRS | -3 FRV Ortiz 3B (871 inn.) +6 DRS | +6 FRV Perkins CF (775 inn.) +9 DRS | +9 FRV Frelick RF (634 inn.) +12 DRS | +7 FRV Hoskins 1B (618 inn.) -3 DRS | -4 FRV Chourio LF (536 inn.) +4 DRS | -1 FRV Bauers 1B (467 inn.) -2 DRS | -1 FRV Chourio RF (453 inn.) +8 DRS | +7 FRV Yelich LF (402 inn.) -4 DRS | -2 FRV Mitchell CF (245 inn.) +6 DRS | +2 FRV Sanchez C (207 inn.) -1 DRS | -2 FRV Frelick CF (168 inn.) +3 DRS | +1 FRV Frelick LF (155 inn.) -5 DRS | -3 FRV With the emphasis the Brewers put on defense all around the diamond I would guess their internal models spit out results closer to DRS (which values defense around +/- half a run a game on a team level at the far ends of the spectrum) than they are to FRV (which is closer to +/- a quarter run a game at the far ends of the spectrum).

It was really only two years (2018 at +5 and 2019 at +8) that the Brewers went crazy on their pythag, otherwise it was 2016 (-1), 2017 (+1), 2021 (+2), 2022 (+1) and 2023 (+2). But yeah, six straight years on the right side of the ledger (even if only by a win or two) is still a pretty impressive run either way. This year's model has definitely gotten the lion's share of their positive run differential from blowout games. BRef defines a blowout as a game with a margin of five or more runs. The Brewers are 25 W - 7 L in such games with a +128 run differential. That means for the other 103 games the Brewers have a +5 run differential and are 54 W - 49 L. For comparison here are the other eleven current playoff teams with their blowout records and run differentials in those games... KCR (31 W - 14 L) +112 NYY (32 W - 17 L) +98 PHI (31 W - 17 L) +79 MIN (26 W - 15 L) +72 ARI (24 W - 21 L) +59 BAL (22 W - 15 L) +51 HOU (25 W - 19 L) +48 CLE (21 W - 15 L) +46 LAD (17 W - 14 L) +45 ATL (22 W - 14 L ) +42 SDP (20 W - 18 L ) +37 Pretty nuts that the Brewers have seven fewer blowout losses and almost 100 points of W% (.781 to .689) over the next best blowout team. Obviously not a perfect one to one comparison, but the minimal number of blowout losses and not having a losing streak longer than three games as of yet kind of gives me 2010 Packer vibes where they never trailed by more than a touchdown the whole season or whatever it was.

Wisco getting steamrolled 7 to 0 top eight. Hoby Milner worked around a two out Jac Caglianone double to put up a zero in his rehab frame.

KC Hunt finished up at 6.1 scoreless walkless innings with 5 H | 6 K. Shuckers picked up three runs bottom six on back to back Eric Brown Jr and Connor Scott doubles followed by an Ernesto Martinez bomb, but the Biscuits put up a four spot top of eight to take the lead. Warren - Kahle - Martin due up bottom nine to hopefully spark the comeback.