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Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Athletic recently cited unnamed "people briefed on (Milwaukee's) plans" that the Brewers are "fretting" over payroll. MLB Trade Rumors posted the story on Thanksgiving, too. As a result, national news outlets continue to advocate for Brewers' pitcher, Freddy Peralta, to be traded this offseason. It is no surprise when pundits openly wonder which veteran player a small-market team will trade next. Speculation is what makes baseball's offseason so much fun. At the same time, claims that the 2026 Brewers' payroll is a problem and that Milwaukee needs to trade Peralta this winter are both highly questionable. The Brewers' 2026 payroll is currently projected to be $136 million, according to FanGraphs. This would be an estimated $13 million increase over last season's final payroll numbers. However, Milwaukee's 2022 final payroll was $138 million. There is little evidence to believe the Brewers cannot support a payroll smaller than a few years ago, especially after an appearance in last season's National League Championship Series. If Milwaukee were worried about a $13 million payroll increase, it would not have extended a $22.025 million qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers already have plenty of cost-controlled pitchers to fill next year's rotation. On the other hand, it was clear from the postseason that Milwaukee lacked an additional top-of-the-rotation starter who could be relied upon in October. Woodruff's contract is a calculated risk for 2026 to make the team better. Brewers' principal owner, Mark Attanasio, and President of Baseball Operations, Matt Arnold, both told The Athletic in a November 18 article after signing Brandon Woodruff that Milwaukee is "excited about our rotation," and the future of Freddy Peralta was an "independent decision." A rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Quinn Priester, and Jacob Misiorowski would be among the best in the National League. The Brewers could conceivably do nothing else for the remainder of the offseason and be favored to win a third consecutive Central Division title. All that to say, Milwaukee does not need to trade Freddy Peralta. For three consecutive years, Peralta has made 30 or more starts with 200 or more strikeouts. Eight million dollars cannot buy that level of performance, especially on a one-year commitment. Dollar for dollar, Peralta could be the most valuable veteran starting pitcher in the league, especially for a small-market team. The best argument for trading Peralta is the promise of receiving multiple years of control from one or more prospects. It is worth noting that Milwaukee already has the best minor league system in the league, according to Baseball America's 2025 mid-season report. The Brewers' top three prospects are shortstops with Cooper Pratt and Jesus Made already appearing in Double-A last season. Jeferson Quero and Marco Dinges already have bright futures as catchers. The Brewers do lack high-end outfield talent, but Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick are entrenched in Milwaukee for several years. A high-end pitching prospect with five or six years of team control would be worth considering. The prospect would need to be "can't miss" because the Brewers already have Misiorowski, Priester, Patrick, Henderson, Ashby, and Gasser for multiple years, too. It is tempting to wonder about the unnamed sources that receive briefings on the Brewers' level of payroll comfort. Are the briefings in PowerPoint format, or are they simply conversations overheard at the water cooler? Do the briefings address the contradiction of expressing an urgent need to shed one-year financial commitments to add multi-year commitments, presumably in free agency? It is absurd to suggest the Brewers need to trade Freddy Peralta to sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa or another platoon player. Matt Arnold did not win his second consecutive Executive of the Year award by fretting about payroll or doubting the organization's long-term plans. Freddy Peralta understandably should be on every team's Christmas wish list. But what can a big market club offer a small market club that already has everything it needs to win 97 games and high-level prospects at most positions? View full article

I just realized Nick Castellanos has a total of 1.3 bWAR during four seasons and 2303 AB in Philadelphia. $80 million for less than a third of a win per season. Beware 30 year old free agents

Bites at the apple. Heartbreak in October is better than in April. 🙂

Tyler Black has 0.5 trade value according to BTV. That is nearly zero.

I’d expect Quintana to receive a similar contract in 2026. Quintana struck out hardly anyone over 131.2 IP (6.1 K/9) and had FIP of 4.81 - which is bad. Gray struck out 201 batters over 180 IP with a 3.39 FIP - which is good.

Is this speculative? I think Yelich really likes California in spite of his desire to win a World Series. Angels might want Yelich. I agree that being traded to a winner certainly helps the case for waiving a no trade clause.

I assume injuries will make roster decisions more clear at some point. I also wonder about Gasser, Henderson and Myers. Each are probably better than AAA depth.

I would not have expected Jake Bauers to be a meaningful middle of the order presence for the Brewers in 2026 after Milwaukee acquired him in November 2023.

Can the Brewers make qualifying offer to Peralta after 2026? *pending new CBA

Brewers signed Eddys Leonard to minor league deal.. He used to play SS? 🤷‍♂️ 186 innings at SS in 2024. I assume there is a reason he moved to being a utility player.

Woodruff is the best starting pitcher in Brewers history at keeping runners off the bases (according to career WHIP with Milwaukee). Only Sabathia’s half season in 2008 was a touch better. If you can retain CC Sabathia levels of performance on a one year deal, that seems like a win to me.

Since Joey Ortiz is not a needle mover then his needle should not move. We need a stat for moving the needle.

Seems rich for a leverage reliever that barely throws 90 mph. At the same time, Maton has been quite good for a few years now. Will be 33 years old on opening day. Milwaukee hasn't had any success against Maton over his last 8 appearances against us, including five appearances in 2025. 15 K, 5 H, 1 BB and 0 ER.

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman / Imagn Images Milwaukee had many amazing moments during an improbably good 2025 season. In this article, we take a look back at the top five greatest moments in terms of Win Probability Added (WPA). Win Probability Added calculates the likelihood a team will win a game from one plate appearance to the next. For example, if the Brewers are tied 0-0 in the bottom of the fourth inning, Milwaukee's chances of winning might be 50%. If Christian Yelich grounds out weakly to second base to lead off the inning, the Brewers' odds of winning might reduce by 1%. In other words, the Yelich at-bat had a negative 1% WPA. 1. William Contreras’ two-run home run off Emilo Pagán, Top 9 with 1 out, trailing 1-0 on August 17 Win Probability, before: 18% Win Probability, after: 81% WPA: +63% The Brewers entered this contest on a franchise-record, 14-game winning streak. The league was beginning to believe that Milwaukee’s probability of winning was 100% for every game, no matter what. Jose Quintana pitched six scoreless innings before allowing a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 7th inning. It seemed like that run would be the difference until the 9th inning. Anthony Siegler drew a leadoff walk. Caleb Durbin popped out. William Contreras then hit the opening pitch into the left-center field bleachers. Just like that, 2-1 Brewers. The most pivotal play during a season of unlikely moments. Unfortunately, this game was not over. Cincinnati ultimately won 3-2 in ten innings. 2. Andrew Vaughn’s RBI single off Tanner Scott, Bottom 9 with 1 out, trailing 2-1 on July 9 Win Probability, before: 33% Win Probability, after: 82% WPA: +49% Andrew Vaughn was recalled from Triple-A Nashville on July 7. Vaughn immediately made his presence felt, recording 4 RBI in his first two games with Milwaukee. The Brewers were going for a three-game sweep against the Dodgers when they trailed 2-1, heading into the bottom of the 9th inning. Vaughn pinch hit for Jake Bauers with runners on first and second and one out. Vaughn then hit a broken bat flair over the shortstop to tie the game on the very first pitch. The game was now tied at 2-2. Milwaukee went on to win 3-2 in ten innings. The legend of Andrew Vaughn was born. 3. Andrew Vaughn’s two RBI double off Kyle Finnegan, Bottom 9 with 0 outs, trailing 5-3 on July 12 Win Probability, before: 33% Win Probability, after: 81% WPA: +48% The Brewers were riding a six-game winning streak as play began on July 12. However, it looked like things would slip away after Abner Uribe allowed a two-run home run to Brady House in the top of the 8th inning to give Washington a 4-3 lead. Andrew Vaughn stepped to the plate with two runners on and nobody out in the bottom of the 9th inning. He ripped a first-pitch fastball to the right-center field gap, scoring Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich. Vaughn’s heroics tied the game at 5-5, allowing Caleb Durbin to win it with a walk-off single, three batters later. 4. William Contreras’ walk-off home run off Randy Rodriguez, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, tied 4-4 on August 22 Win Probability, before: 54% Win Probability, after: 100% WPA: +46% Milwaukee was glad to be home after losing three out of five games in Chicago. It seemed like Willy Adames was excited to be back at his old ballpark, too. Adames hit two home runs on the evening. Trevor Megill started the ninth inning with a one-run lead. Megill retired the first two batters before allowing a double, an infield single, and a wild pitch. San Francisco tied the game at 4-4. After two quick outs, William Contreras hammered his first career walk-off home run, barely clearing the wall in left field. The Brewers won 5-4. 5. Caleb Durbin’s RBI single off Félix Bautista, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, trailing 3-2 on May 21 Win Probability, before: 17% Win Probability, after: 61% WPA: +44% No one expected much from Milwaukee in May. The Brewers were below .500, even as they looked to sweep Baltimore on May 21. Caleb Durbin had also done little to inspire optimism since being called up on April 18; he had produced a .501 OPS until this point. Milwaukee was down to its final out, trailing by a run. Durbin came to the plate with runners on first and second. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, Durbin was able to punch a hanging slider to the opposite field to tie the game at 3-3. In a disappointing turn of events, Milwaukee later lost 8-4 in 11 innings. Tyler Alexander took the loss, allowing four runs in relief. Bonus: Paul Molitor’s walk-off three-run home run off Tom Henke, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, trailing 4-2 on August 13, 1991 Win Probability, before: 9% Win Probability, after: 100% WPA: +91% For context, the greatest play in franchise history (in terms of WPA) came at County Stadium in 1991. The Brewers faced the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of a three-game series. Bill Wegman pitched well through eight innings but allowed a go-ahead home run to Joe Carter in the ninth. Chuck Crim allowed another run in relief, extending the Blue Jays' lead to 4-2. B.J. Surhoff and Franklin Stubbs were quickly retired to start the bottom of the 9th inning. A two-out double from Jim Gantner, followed by a walk by Bill Spiers, brought Paul Molitor to the plate. Molitor drove a deep flyball to left field, clearing the fences, creating the most sudden change in win probability in Brewers' history. View full article

That’s not to say Ortiz is better than Burnes. It is probably accurate to say that Burnes was never going to help Milwaukee after his final year of arbitration. In that sense, we traded one excellent year of Burnes to Baltimore for several years of above average Joey Ortiz and DL Hall.

Wiemer is younger than Ortiz and Mitchell. Wiemer was quietly above replacement level in 61 PA for Miami last year. He was also solid for Triple-A Jacksonville in ten games.

Good call on this one. @edfunderburk

That’s fair. And I’m on #TeamJoey We all agree Ortiz’s defense is immensely valuable. We all hope his offense improves toward what we (modesty) expect in 2026. As it were, Ortiz had third lowest OPS+ of all hitters with 400+ PA in 2025. Milwaukee should aspire to not giving someone 500 PA with such a low OPS+. Ke’Bryan Hayes’ bat was a whisper worse. Nick Allen got 416 PA for a bad Braves team. Both players also very good with the glove, as one would hope. Astros traded for Nick Allen, yesterday.

A different look: There were 11 players with 500 PA that had less bWAR than Joey Ortiz in 2025.

This so clearly makes the most sense to me. A sub-3 ERA starting pitcher with 200 K for three straight seasons for only $8 million is a valuable piece for tjr 2026 Brewers. At the same time, ownership would never say ‘we are trading Freddy.’ We should want more than just one veteran starting pitcher in 2026. We clearly didn’t trust our regular season # 5 starter (Quintana) in the playoffs.

We probably need another reliable veteran to pair with Peralta. It would be peak Brewers to turn Soroka into a something special.

I appreciate Naylor is younger and less injured. Naylor hits for higher average and less power. Lower career OPS than Hoskins.

By extension, are you suggesting Attanasio for ‘owner of the year?’ 🙂