jay87shot

I do really like the idea of giving him a raise next season to extend him and make the contract more doable. However I still think that if you are the player and believe in yourself you wait. I am all onboard if he would be willing to take a contract like this.

Di Turi looks like he filled out a bunch, if he added some power to his game he could have a much higher ceiling than I have thought. Nicassia with 3 dingers already also could turn into an interesting prospect if the early season power is for real.

I didn't get to watch today but it looked like Priesters stuff was pretty good on highlight even if the command wasn't great. I agree it is time to worry about Rhys and 3B. I will give Yeli, Contreras, and Ortiz a little longer leash. I think Yoho has a day or 2 until we guarantee him the extra year. I would expect him in a week or so. I doubt it is for Payamps (he has earned a little longer leash over the past 2 years) but if he doesn't look great his next outing or two it could be.

JJ Watt may be available, would you trade 2 1st and like Jaire (and pay Watt like 4/160). I was against doing that for Myles Garrett but find myself wanting Watt. I know my Badger ties are clouding my judgement her but I would be willing to do that. On top of that I would then call JJ (only 36) and offer up a sweet 1 year deal. Watt brothers, Neal, and Clark would be scary. What type of value would Malik Willis have? Maybe a 3rd/4th round pick? I kind of think we should try and extend him like 2/12 and if he declines trade him and take a backup qb. I like Milroe, McCord, Shough, Ewers as 3-5 round picks and even Leonard, Rourke, and Gabriel as 6-7. If the couple top corners are gone I am kind of leaning towards Derrick Harmon, I think he will be a lot like Calais Campbell and DeForest Buckner as a guy who can play inside or outside and be a big help with the pass rush and run game.

Add in the starters and potential starters from Tuesdays games and it gets even more impressive. On Tuesday starters for the 4 affiliates when 15 ip, 7 h, 8 bb, 16 k's, 0 ER (0 unearned) and add in Timmerman, Fitzpatrick, and B Rivera as potential starters in relief and you get a total of 25 ip, 0 runs, 9 hits, 13 bb, 28 k's The two day totals Starters only= 31.2 ip, 0 earned runs (1 run), 11 hits, 17 bb, 33 k with potential starters in relief= 49.1 innings, 1 er (2 runs), 17 hits, 23 bb, 58 k's Wow-e-zowie, that needs to hit twitter/x or whatever socials pronto.

So starting pitching went 16.2 innings 0 ER (1 unearned) 4 hits 9 bb and 17 k's today. Pretty impressive, especially if you add the other starters, Corniel and Holobetz, who pitched in relief 24.1 innings 1 ER (2 total) 8 h 10bb 30 k. Is there any update on Made, is it still just a minor ankle twist/sprain/etc that the are being overly cautious with? Same with Quero and Boeve? I haven't tried yet, but making a top 30 or 20 prospect list is going to be impossible. After reading about some of the EMJ stuff put out it is getting really easy to say he is our opening day 1B next year. Come on he is a a 6'6" athletic beast with maybe 20/20 potential and gold glove potential defensively and he isn't a top 30 ranked prospect in 1 well regarded publication that I know of, If he can turn 111 and 116 mph singles into HR he probably has 30+ HR potential.

Did Collins play any 3B during preseason? Minus an opening day HR the Dunn/Capra platoon hasn't been great and Collins has looked great. I know Collins has been an OF/2B mostly but he might be worth a try (if he has any experience) until we give Durbin some run at 3B. It looks like he has only play 14 games at 3B in the minors, 118 innings.

The O's got 3.5 WAR from Corbin last year, Ortiz was 2.7. If Ortiz ends up not improving and just stays the same we win that trade in 2 years. Don't forget about Blake Burke's upside and the money we saved that was likely used in part to get Hoskins (not that he has done much). Devin is going to be worth 2-3 WAR if he pitches like he has. Nestor will likely be worth somewhere in that neighborhood if healthy. My guess is that we see Durbin up in a month or so, if he shows anything solid we win that trade. If he hits some this year at 3B, I kind of like trying Ortiz at 3B, Turang at SS, and Durbin at 2B for 2026 (depending on Pratt timetable). For now the if's of Durbin aren't quite worth moving Turang off 2B. Sure this one can be iffy but Devin has his own health concerns and last year our pen should that it can be elite without him. Look at what we did with Hader, his 2.5 WAR with SDP was turned into Contreras, Gasser, and Payamps. Payamps alone has been worth 2.7 WAR the past 2 years. I Freddy pitches well I would think we should get more of a Corbin than Devin return. If the offers are poor keep him and take the comp. pick. If Quero plays well this year I would listen to offers next offseason for him but unless someone gives us a near Soto-like return (nats to SDP) I would probably wait a year on him as well.

It would be really nice to get some more high upside arms in the draft early. I kind of think going in reverse of what we have done the past couple years might make sense this year. By that I mean, instead of saving money on the 1st 2-3 picks and then getting 2-3 upside HS prospect to fill that money in, it might be nice to get 2-3 really high end arms. And then go under slot in the 3-4 (maybe 2nd) to save some money if we go over slot early. My thought is that with the teenage talent we have in A ball, it would be nice to get some high end arms that can move with them. We have lots of pitching talent in the upper minors that projects as mid to back of the rotation pitchers, we should look to add some top of the rotation upside. After Misi we don't have much 1-2 style pitcher projections, unless Letson, Meccage, or Knoth (when healthy) take off. Since we have been so good on the int. market and later in the draft process, it seems like a great draft to go quality over quantity. Honestly if we were to take 2 college pitchers early we probably wouldn't really go over slot much anyway. For example 1 P Liam Doyle (Tennesse)- Has been on of the better college arms early in the season, throws up to mid 90's as lefty 1(comp) P Chase Shores (LSU)- At 6'8" there is Misi like stuff, he missed most of 2023 and all of 2024 and has been ok this year but not great. 2) OF Nolan Schubart (OkSt)- If a good college OF falls through the cracks this would be a great spot to snag one, obviously Schubert is higher ranked now. If he fell (or another higher ranked college bat, preferably OF) he would fit into the organization well, even though he isn't really the type of athlete we usually go after. Honestly something like that probably isn't a whole lot over slot, so we could still be frugil day 2, and then go after HS upside day 3. The couple HS arms that are ranked higher I doubt fall to us so I went with college arms, undoubtedly there will be 2-3 HS arms and a few more college pitchers that jump up in the rankings. I think this could be some of the front office thinking in the Priester trade as well, the system has gotten deep enough that we can take a couple swings for the fences and then get back to the save money and get 6-7 upside picks in a draft.

Yesterday was a beautiful game, Yeli, Contreras, and Rhys hopefully all got going, the pitching minus 1 pitch was masterful and we are getting better and more healthy day by day. It is incredible to be 6-5 with what I would have said were our 2-8 starters hurt or unavailable (not to mention Gasser and now Thomas if you really believe he is hurt). The bullpen is really coming together and Uribe looks like most of envisioned at the beginning of last year. With a decent start in the minors we can really be aggressive and go after a 3B or top of the rotation starter if the budget isn't to tight. Boy if we can get those 3 vets going and Sal, Brice, and Chourio keep at it, like they have been we are going to be a force.

Great day in the minors. It would be nice to kind of keep that highlighted portion (plus Made) of Carolina together promotion wise it could be amazing come say 2027 when they might be all ready to break into the big show. Who would you say are some of the top guys that could be due for an early season May-ish promotion? My thoughts would be Burke, Wood, Bitonti, Arienamo, Hedbert, maybe some of the 2024 pitching draft picks (UDFA) from college last year, I am I forgetting anyone else?

I am all for trying to extend Freddy, but I think as we see contracts go up and up he will be worth more than your estimates. Kikuchi, Severino, Manaea, and Eovaldi each got 20-25 million per year. Freddy hasn't had the injury history of most of those guys and his k rate makes him potentially more desirable. With 2 offseason until he is on the market my guess is that he is likely worth closer to 4/120 or 5/135 range. If he takes like a 20 million a year extension thay would be great, but I doubt he takes that.

With the Braves starting 1-8, what are the odds that they would trade away a guy like Matt Olson at the deadline? That team is in all likelihood to talented not to come back but they don't have much of a farm system and have constant injury issues. Matt Olsen would be a great fit into our team, he has 4 years of control after this year at 21 per with a 2030 option. What would a trade package look like? I would guess we would give them Rhys for the year to level out contracts and then the Braves would insist on Pratt and try and get Misi as well. The Braves do have a ton of needs maybe we could sell them on a big package with a bit more of our extra depth Rhys, Pratt, Perkins, Hunt. I would love to see the Guardians fall and make JRam available as well but I still don't think they could trade him and not have a fan mutiny even for like 5/6 good pieces.

With the Priester trade what do we think our pitching looks like next year? I still think we end up trading Peralta next offseason (it has been the front office way to get something more back with 1 year). Keeping Peralta would go a long way towards have a strong rotation but for sake of the question I am going to assume we trade him. Obviously we have tons of potential arms with Myers, Patrick, Misi, Priester, Henderson, Ashby, Gasser, CarRod, Hall, Hunt, Wichrowski, and other who could be options. I really wouldn't mind going into the season with all those young guys duking it out but with our offense full of guys in their primes I really think we should find a couple solid veterans to add some stability. I would think maybe we can keep one of Woody, Nestor, Civale, or Quintana if they fit in well and don't end up being to expensive (or get us a comp pick). My hope is that Woody is solid and we can extend/re-work his deal, we owe him $10 million next year even if he leaves in FA so maybe we can work that into a deal mid season if he looks good. I doubt we sign a quality free agent so the other part would be to trade for a established pitcher with a favorable contract/control. I do think we could trade some of our pitching depth at the deadline potentially for a long term 1B/3B.

It's nice to see him throwing 95 average. If he can throw 95 over last year's 93 this becomes a better trade. There is no doubt we overplayed just based on the early season. Last year at the deadline his value was Nick Yorke who is the Pirates 5th prospect. Value wise he probably has more than Yophery but likely not as much as the 33rd pick. Looking at it I initially said it was a D grade, looking a bit more at Priester and some extra mph I will say C. Clearly it could go either way, especially with both the pieces being at least a couple years away from ready.

As mentioned he will start, he is a 5 pitch mix, the sinker and 4 seam averaged 93 mph last year. Sinker/Slider 30%-ish each, 4 seam, curve, change 13-15% each, 1% cutter (could be misreads or is developing). My guess is that we add that cutter and refine the breaking pitches to 1 more consistent pitch. The changeup could use some tweaking as it is 88 and only 5 mph behind the heater. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/quinn-priester-682990?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb He was a very promising prospect picked 18th in 2019, generally 60 grade fastball, 60 grade breaking ball as a prospect (top 50-100, most publications 21 and 22 seasons and start of 23 ). He averaged over a k per inning in the minors, but last year in the bigs 6.0 k/9 (better in AAA). My guess is that if our staff gets him right there is a quality #3 starter potential. Having control through at least 2030 (maybe more if more time spend in minors) and experience in the bigs he probably isn't to far away from realizing that potential. However there is a lot of DL Hall feel to him when I read about him, in that I read up to 96/97 and see some nice minor league stuff but when I look at his big league tape it is 92-94 and a contact orientated stats. My guess is he is Adrian Houser on the floor and maybe like Chris Bassitt on the higher end. If we can get an mph or 2 on the fastball(s), make small tweaks to the breaking pitches and change they stuff is good enough to get that to that prospect ceiling quickly. If that happens this is a decent trade, if he follows the DL Hall inconsistency path it could be real bad.

No, the 3 million for a comp A pick is some real world saving but I would assume the prospect cost of that pick is way more valuable.

I am in the same place as most of you, Yoph, a comp A, and PTBNL seems like to much, Priester has some upside and as others have mentioned young controllable pitching is hard to come by. For me that comp A pick (3 million slot) is a borderline top 100 prospect, maybe not right away but at some point I expect someone drafted 32 or so to be a top 100 prospect. I give this like a D, if the ptbnl isn't anyone noteworthy (my guess is since it is a ptbnl or cash it isn't a valuable prospect option). My biggest issue is that I don't see him being notably better than Misi, Henderson, CarRod, Patrick, Gasser, Ashby, or Hall and we gave up to big upside pieces. On Priester, the groundball rate is impressive but taking a deep look at the rest it is kind of meh. It really looks similar to Carlos Rodriguez repitiore with 5 pitches, 93 mpg average fastball (maybe developing a 6th/cutter). It is weird to me that he gets a decent chase rate (72nd percentile) but only strikes out 14.9% (2nd percentile), probably getting a lot of grounders out of the zone. I can see him being a guy our organization can improve a bunch if we can add a mph or 2 and tweak small parts of his pitch repertoire there is good upside but it seems like a panic move for a guy who like likely be back in the minors in a month when our rotation is back to near full strength.

He walks to many sure but no body in AAA can hit him, 26.1 ip 8 hits (1 hit in 8.2 this year). For a 2-3 start stint he is the best option with his results, especially like I said in my last post I would piggyback him with CarRod or Henderson and probably max innings at 4ish. He isn't ready to be up all year and just be a guy to hand the ball to every 5th day and pitch 6 innings, but he can be ready if used right.

As much as our pitching is hurting look on the bright side we have absolutely amazing depth. Quintana and Mears should be back in a week, Myers maybe Civale the week or two after that then Woody and Ashby around May. If anything this let's out front office take a look at some depth and figure out somethings for the young guys next year. We should dump Connor Thomas now for Misi and bring up Henderson and CarRod for ERod and Anderson. I like the way they did it the other night and had Misi and Henderson piggyback. Freddy, CarRod, Alexander, Patrick, Misi/Henderson... That isn't perfect but better than 5-6 other rotations around the league. Quintana takes CarRods spot then, Myers and Civale replace there worse performing of the rest. Followed by Woody and Nestor. The young guy should be fine to keep us at/around .500 and the vets will kind of be rested a little better than the rest of the league late in the season (baring no re-injuries).

He has been a bit shaky with command but I have faith. I am going a lot on last year on him being ahead of others. His stuff has looked relatively good, really after Peralta and Megill it is kind of up in the air. I could see anyone on my list up to Yoho at 12 being the 3rd most valuable.

I am going to say the qualification I'd best current pitcher in value of the big league team for this year. I am including everyone who will potentially pitch this year. 1. Freddy 2. Megill 3. Hudson 4. Woody 5. Myers 6. Nestor 7. Quintana 8. Civale 9. Uribe 10. Koenig 11. Ashby 12. Yoho 13. Payamps 14. Peguero 15. Mears 16. Alexander 17. Misi 18. Patrick 19. Hall 20. Elvin Rodriguez 21. Henderson 22. Carlos Rodriguez 23. Gasser 24. G Anderson 25. Wolfram 26. C Thomas (returned soon) 27. Middendorf 28. Liranzo 29. Jay 30. McWilliams I find it difficult to rank the starters after Freddy and the relievers after Megill and Hudson so I kind of lumped the tiers together for now. Just something fun to think about how great our depth is once we get healthy. Also it shows how much pitching we could trade if we are healthy and our prospects pitch well.

Are we ready to let Conner Thomas go? I know at this point we probably wait for Yoho to get to his extra year.

How worried should we be that our middle of the order bats have all been disappointing. Hoskins .158/.360/.158. 3 hits (0 xbh) Yeli .083/.267/.208 2 hits (1 xbh) Contreras .074/.242/.074 2 hits (0 xbh) I am sure they are pressing but having all 3 of our vet leaders starting out so poorly is worrisome. However to be 4-4 after that Yankees series is probably more impressive especially when those 3 guys start to hit.

Interesting to see Hall starting to get going, with him on the 60 Day, I thought he would have a couple more weeks until getting going. Woody threw a 51 pitch simulated game a couple days ago. The team said they hope he is back by May. I would think throwing 51 pitches and he could be back after 1 or 2 rehab starts which would seem to be a couple weeks. Are they just going to be extra cautious and give him more starts or is my math off.