jay87shot

I agree, I meant to put put an additional mid-tier prospect to the Sox (since fixed) but since writing that think it would need to be someone in our top 10ish, say Brock Wilken or Luke Adams.

It wasn't until late January into February last year until we signed Rhys and Burnes was traded setting up a couple FA signings. Here are some ideas for a big shake up. 1)Brewers get Triston Casas Red Sox get Nolan Arenado, Ryan Pressley, and (midtier Brewer prospect), Cards get Lucas Giolito and Elvis Peguero Astros get Joel Payamps, Blake Perkins We get a long term 1st baseman, the Red Sox upgrade defense and get a closer. The Cards get out from Arenado and get 2 useful arms. The Stros shed some money to maneuver and get an upside OF and depth pen arm for Pressley. Casas for Perkins, Payamps, Peguero, and prospect doesn't seem obscene for Cases 2) Brewers get Luis Arraez, Mets get Rhys Hoskins, Padres get Starling Marte (Mets eat like 5million) and Carlos Rodriguez This ends up a 3 way deal to send out contracts teams are trying to move for similar pieces of need. We send out CarRod to make up for Arraez having a little bit of value. 3)Sign reliever like Sewald/ LeClerc/Jansen/Kimbrel 1/5-6 ish I don't know if Jansen or Kimbrel sign that cheap buy maybe. I like the idea of picking up Sewald and our staff re-invigarating him.

I would be fine with Iglesias, he has a pretty high floor so as long as he isn't to expensive that would be fine. Kim would be better but with the injury and a likely higher price it is more of a risk. I think it is likely Kim will take a 1/10-15 million dollar deal which we could probably swing but I worry about there being a Rhys style player option(s) that would really only hurt us. Iglesias for 6-8 with a reasonable team option and buyout may be better than 1/10-15 with a player option for Kim. However as a fan, I would go big and try for Kim. Kim could have 25 HR potential at AFF instead of Petco.

Rodgers interesting with some past strong seasons, prospect pedigree, and gold glove 2022. However has as many warnings as positives hits way better in Coors, injuries, and defensive regression. I would be ok with him on a cheap (3-4 million) deal as a utility/LHP platoon but I would have a ton of faith in him.

Those rankings are a dynasty view, I think that is kind of for a specific fantasy baseball. If I understand right basically a dynasty view only really looks at the players ceiling.

1)Fast riser= Jason Woodward (A-AA), Cooper Pratt(A+-AAA), Blake Burke A+ to AAA Obviously placement at the beginning of the year will make some difference here. Woodward and Pratt are both borderline up to the next level so a couple good weeks could mean early promotions. Burke seems like a guy who could have a huge year if healthy. 2)Out of no where= Yerlin Rodriguez, Juan Ortuno Probably not out of no where for our site but nationally neither get love. Hopefully Yerlin fills out a bit and adds another mph or 2 and that helps his control becoming a legit relief prospect. Ortuno is a guy who got lost with Made and Ortiz getting attention. With the need for A ball OF depth he could get an opportunity to skip rookie ball and take advantage. 3)Eric Bitonti, Yophery Rodriguez Bitonti is going to hit a ton of HR as a 19 year in Aball/A+ball, Yophery takes a step on becomes a 15/15 player and at his age moves into the top 100. I hope am going to guess someone like Braylon Payne or Josh Knoth will be borderline top 100 prospects as well. 4)Dylan O' Rae He was pushed to AA to early last year, I think if he can spend all year at AA without being pushed we will see numbers like early in 2024. 5)pass 6)All teams above .500 again. Eric Bitonti hits like 34 HR, Mike Boeve hits above .300 again and gets some big league time after the all star break. All the super young higher end prospects play well but not at the highest level. A bunch of starters have great years and the over crowded upper levels staffs gets more congested,

I thought this might be a fun discussion with the big league ZIP's coming out. What would be you personal predictions in some categories. Feel free to add some categories if anyone has better ideas 1)Fast riser(s) (ie more than 2 levels)(IE Pratt, Yoho, Hunt 2024 (Pratt playoffs in AA), Chourio 2023 2)Out of no where (Hunt, Yoho) 3)Rise into consensus top 100 prospect 4)Comeback Player (re-establish lost prospect status or return from injury) 5)Struggles/Disappointment (feel free to skip if you worry about jinxing anyone) 6)Individual/team predictions

If Bregman where to end up taking a 1/2 year deal there will likely be a few big market teams to sign him for more than we would.

I am going to predict that the Mets don't make the playoffs. Even with getting Soto that team isn't better and getting old-ish fast. They don't have a lot of high end player after Lindor and Soto (maybe Senga if healthy).

I have never been a huge fan of zips, basically they have every player on our team regressing except Hoskins. It just seems like they don't predict anything other than average unless you are a superstar.

I would make no sense this year to trade William, if Quero has a solid year the question can be brought up next offseason but at no point does trading Contreras this year make much sense.

Turang had a 4.7 WAR last year with like 2 months of rough hitting, definitely not a stretch. Sal will likely need to hit .300 to have a 5 WAR type season but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibilities. Turang, Frelick, and Mitchell are all elite baserunners and defenders if they can just be slightly above average with the bat (and healthy) a 5 WAR season isn't crazy. Look at Dalton Varsho (5 WAR, 98 ops), Andres Gimenez (4 WAR, 82 OPS), Turang (4.7 war, 85 ops), baserunning and defense add up quick. Joey Ortiz could also be an eventual 5 WAR player if they bat improves and metrics like his SS, his first month or so at 3rd was great but he was on of the best defenders the 2nd half of the year. He probably won't steal a ton of bases but I could see him getting to 20 at some point in his career.

103 wins it is. I am sure I probably would have had 7-8 bullpen WAR as well. I admit I am overly optimistic. I don't think any of my individual hopes/predictions are crazy but I agree they all won't happen. I definitely put i positive spin for everyone with a few injuries sprinkled in. I will say I do think Mitchell, Turang, Contreras, and Chourio do all have 5-6 WAR potential, but I would expect 2-3 of them to be 2-4 WAR instead.

Here are my personal predictions Contreras .295/.375/.850 28 HR 100 rbi WAR 6, Contreras gets more days at DH and stays fresh longer, somewhere around a 5th in MVP. Haase .230/.290/.700 0 War Haase has a couple big moments but is generally just a solid backup Rhys .250/340/.850 15 HR 50 rbi's, 1 WAR Rhys starts of solid, has a huge week in May and then gets hurt for the last 80 games Black .240/360/.725 12 HR 18 SB 2 WAR Black gets lots of run at 1B with the Rhys injury, he is streaky but solid offensively, he ends up playing alot of OF based on later described events. Defense at 1st isn't great but passible, shows more potential in OF. Boeve/EMJ One these guys has a really solid year in the minors and takes over for Black the last month of the year. .250/.320/.700 .5 WAR Turang .270/.350/.675 10 HR 45 SB 5 WAR, Turang improves on consistency, but defensive metrics aren't as great but overall still really good Ortiz .260/.345/.750 17 HR 65 RBI 12 SB 4 WAR, Ortiz misses a month in the middle of the year but has a huge impact and makes up a ton for Adames being gone when healthy. 3rd- Dunn/Durbin/Mone/Scrapheap .200/.275/.550 -.5 WAR 3rd base is a black hole the 1st 3 months of the year and nothing works offensively. Midseason trade Perkins to Rays for Curtis Mead (blocked no PT in Tampa). Mead .260/.310/.675 0.5 WAR Mead brings stability to the position but by no means shows any major potential other than average across the board. Yeli .300/.390/.850 25 HR 20 SB 90 RBI, 4 WAR Yeli picks up where he left of, he is healthy for the 1st 130 games or so and only ends up on the DL for one shorter stretch later in the year. Chourio .290/.350/.875 34 HR 90 RBI 28 SB 6 WAR Chourio takes the next step, he has a weak August but other wise puts up top 5-10 mvp season. Mitchell .250/.333/.800 17 HR 23 SB 4 WAR Mitchell is healthy the 1st half but soon after we trade Perkins to the Rays he gets hurt (not major like 15 games, forcing Yeli to the OF and eventual short DL stint) but comes back the last 3-4 weeks solid. Perkins .230/.315 Perkins doesn't get much PT early in the year and gets traded. Frelick .285/.350/.700 9 HR 38 SB, 5 WAR, Frelick starts of the season hot like Turang last year but cools off the last month or two. Bench=overall the bench is solid defensively but struggles offensively. The Brewers sweep the OF Gold Gloves SP 1) Freddy 3.4 ERA 175 innings 215 k's 4.5 WAR Freddy is an All-Star but 2 bad outings in the 2nd half ruin a potentially great year. 2) Woody 2.8 ERA 120 innings 135 k 3 WAR Woody comes back strong but misses 6 starts in the middle of the year (overused) and Murph babies him down the stretch. 3/4) Cortez/Civale 3.5 era 200 innings 4 WAR One of these pitchers gets hurt early in the year and misses extended time the other is very dependable and solid. 5)Myers 4.25 era 140 innings 1.5 WAR Myers is solid but gets into trouble to often. At one point loses roation spot but gets it back. 6)Patrick/CarRod/Henderson 10 starts 4.5 ERA, Patrick and CarRod each get 3-4 game stretches early (Civale/Cortez) and are ok but not great then Henderson gets a couple starts later in the year 7) Gasser 12 starts 3.75 era Gasser comes back and is solid and ends up being the 6th starter at the end of the year. 8) Misi 10-15 appearances (maybe a couple starts) 30 innings 2.5 era 48 ks/16 bb Misi is solid in AAA and effectively piggybacks with Woody the last 2 months of the year. 9) Ashby 8 starts, 3.00 era, 100 total innings. Ashby is great to start the year as a multi inning reliever, he picks up a few starts but isn't as impressive as when working 2 innings. Pen Megill= 2.5 ERA 28 sv Megill misses a month like last year but otherwise is relatively solid. Hudson/Koenig= 2.2 ERA both pickup where they left of and are solid all year. Hall/Mears= 5 era, both have some good outing early in the year but stuggle come June and get sent down Uribe/Yoho= 3 era, come July both guys are up to the bigs for Hall/Mears and are very good expect each have 1 blowup that balloon the ERA for each. Payamps/Peguero= 3.5 era, both kind of keep on the path from last year, Murph uses Peguero better with less runners on. Thomas/Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson = 4 era to start, 2 era 2nd half Thomas makes opening day but srtuggles (we trade a minor league arm to keep him but he doesn't make an impact) Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson taxi style pitch for a couple months until 1 of them breaks through and becomes a solid reliever ala Koenig last year. We start off hot cool down around game 100 but end strong the last 30 games. 94-68. Cubs 91-71, Reds 86-76, Cards 80-82, Pirates 71-91 (couple big pitching injuries)

If we can get Cartaya without a 40 man roster spot I would be all for this. He would be a great backup at AAA or maybe a lead AA catcher.

If we have any money to spend I would go for Ha-Seong Kim. I like our current rotation especially if we add Miley on the cheap. The bullpen is deep and has lots of high potential options. 3rd (or second) is the only position I worry about and we do some high potential options. It would be nice to add someone with middle of the order potential but that might be out of our price range.

I don't mind this at all, he has some Darren O'Day style funk. A youtube video I watched showed he is all over the rubber and starts with his back to the batter. Molina was lucky to throw 90 so I won't toss and turn and Jay was just a AAAA style guy at best.

What about the idea of sending an OF to the Astros, I feel like the Astros still have a bunch of work to after trading Tucker, signing Walker, and probably losing Bregman. They don't have a great farm but do have some interesting talent. I doubt we could get someone like Framber Valdez but maybe we could jump in as a 3rd team. Here are some ideas 1) Sal/Perk and Boeve for Cam Smith Smith was my favorite draft prospect last year, had a great debut, and doesn't have any ties to the org yet. Add in Peguero or Payamps if not enough 2) Valdez to Toronto, Sal/Perk, 2 toronto prospects to Astros and we get Orelvis Martinez 3) Peguero, Payamps, and Perk/Sal to Houston, Pressley to Dodgers, we get Sheehan/Frasso/Ryan etc (one of the injuried upside Dodgers starters) and Brice Matthews 4) Sal/Perk and Peguero for 3B Zack Denzenzo and UTL Shay Whitcomb

I feel like Sal for Vierling is an overpay, Vierling only has 91 games at 3rd base and overall is below average defensively (close to average last year in 50 games). He isn't a great athlete (decent) and has a 3/1 k to bb, the only thing he has is a bit more power but it's not like he is going to be a middle of the order bat. I know Vierling was worth 3 WAR but I just don't like the fit. On top of that he is a good defense OF and the Tigers probably will have an everyday OF spot for him in the OF. I would say Sal and CarRod for Jace Jung would be more appealing and likely if they sign Bregman. Even then I know they are pretty happy with Vierling, Greene, Meadows in the OF with Kerry Capenter as a 4th when not DHing. My guess is that the Tigers would want more pitching than bats if they get Bregman.

Sorry, I meant there would be a lot of turnover if we traded Yeli and Contreras if Quero had a good year.

https://www.si.com/mlb/brewers/news-feed/brewers-predicted-to-cut-ties-with-188-million-all-star-in-2025-pat3 This article is mostly speculation but does make a good point that Yelich might not be happy primarily DH'ing. We've talked about the possibility of trading Yeli for 2 or 3 years, I don't think it happens this year but I could see next offseason making sense. I foresee him DHing like 75% of the games he is healthy (at least until a Mitchell injury). I believe he has 4/88 without counting differals, if he stays healthy and has the same athleticism he would have decent value next offseason (big if on healthy). Although there could be massive roster turnover next year if we trade Yeli and Quero make a Contreras deal possibly as well.

Vierling has really been an outfielder but wouldnt be the worst add at 3B. Jace Jung would be nice if not to expensive. Does Colt Keith play 1B since they signed Gleybar and Tork mostly DH.

My guess is that we would add someone like Trevor Williams, Spencer Turnbull, or Ryan Yarbourgh later (start of spring training) on a cheaper deal (4-5) if we want some more starter depth.

I feel like the amount given up for Josh Naylor, Luzardo, and now Nate Lowe has been surprisingly low. Naylor has only 1 year of control and isn't good defensively so that one isn't to surprising. For Luzardo Caba and Bryd seems like a light return. Both guys are athletic and Caba was a big int. signing but he basically had a year like Flippo di Turri (more steals). I get that he is a near top 100 prospect but outside of speed meh (same for Bryd). Lowe just went to Washington for Robert Garcia an average lefty reliever (era 2 runs higher than FIP). I would have been all over Lowe for essentially Elvis Peguero. I bet that means there is little chance we can move Rhys.

LBetter revenue sharing would be huge. Maybe instead of just fully equal sharing you say like 50% any money over $45 million from a local deal gets split to the lower markets (or what ever amount makes most sense.. If you went full equal sharing I think what they could do is almost swap the competitive balance rules and the bigger teams get an extra pick for giving up money. I like the idea of putting in a salary floor in, I can't imagine how frustrating it is to be a Pirates, A's, or Ray's fan (among others) who refuse to spend money even when it would seem like they could spend more. I don't care as much about a salary cap if the smaller markets can spend a bit more. If Cohen or the Dodgers want to spend $400 million a year that is fine as long as teams like us can afford to keep more than 1 superstar at a time. Just keep in the extra taxs for going over a soft cap and distribute it out. Change the path to free agency is a good idea. I like 2 years pre-arby (expand perfermance awards), 2 years arby, then a restricted FA with like a 3 year max and nba style max salary (say like 30 million) and then unrestricted free agency, length and money after that. It gets good players more monet quickly but always the smaller teams ways to keep stars