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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    My guess is that when Ashby starts they keep him to like 3/4 innings and piggyback Wilson with him. Ashby was good for 3/4 innings in AAA and then fell apart a bit (if memory serves). I really don't mind Ashby getting some chances, I just wouldn't give him a very long rope and make sure Wilson and Hudson are ready for 3+ innings each if Ashby is bad. Maybe Gutierrez gets a chance somewhere but just isn't on the right time line?
  2. jay87shot
    He looks really smooth, not as much hesitation. If he can man down the 3 hole all year with some real protection our lineup is going to be fun. Especially if Dunn, Chourio, and Turang continue to contribute and Ortiz and Frelick find a groove.
  3. jay87shot
    I really like what the M's did this offseason, Garver, Raley, and Polanco (even Haniger) should lengthen that lineup alot. I am sure at 1 point I heavy advocated for us to add each of Garver, Raley, and/or Polanco. They even added some nice bullpen pieces, but injuries have hurt there bullpen.
  4. jay87shot
    I really wish I lived closer to Carolina to go to some of these games, almost no chance I can convince my wife to take a baseball vacation near there.
  5. jay87shot
    I usually read most of my league wide baseball on mlbtraderumors and it links to baseball reference, I will have to try to use fangraphs more. Thanks for the help.
  6. jay87shot
    I don't know where to put this but thought maybe more people might have questions about some advanced stats. Over the years I have liked using the statistic WAR as a good reference on how strong a players overall season has gone. However I have seen some funny things recently, here is an example. I usually use baseball-reference for stats, I know there are a few different versions like fangraphs use FIP for pitchers and other differenes. Freddy Peralta 6 innings 1 run 1 hit 8 k's 1 bb = 0.2 WAR Joe Ross 3.2 innings 0 runs 2 hits 3 k's 5 bb= 0.2 WAR I am sure the ERA plays a bigger part and WAR really judges a longer part of the season. It just seems like Freddy was amazing and Ross wasn't great. Does anyone have an easy explanation on WAR. I get it is based on a bell curve and has like 6 categories that are used to determine the wins above replacement.
  7. jay87shot
    He wasn't great last year but in 2022 he had a 3.68 ERA. Last year we had to go to Julio Teheran who had a era over 5 in AAA and hadn't been good for like 4 years. I wouldn't think Greinke would be a full time all year answer, just as a vet bridge for 5-8 starts and he could get his 3k k's. There isn't much left at this point on the free agent market and anyone we could get in a trade would be a fringe roster player anyway.
  8. jay87shot
    Agree, it is early and with 3 days off early, I get letting the bullpen soak up some but it is worrisome. I wonder if we are going to be strict on Junis only going through the lineup 2 times. The Giants did that at some point last year and he was better but if he only goes 4 innings every time it will eat into the pen quickly. Being cautious with Ross and Hall early makes sense but hopefully can get pitch count up in a start or two.
  9. jay87shot
    I keep forgetting we should have Miley back soon. I guess he would be the 6th starter when he is back. I wouldnt mind Grienke if someone gets injured, I wouldn't think it would take more than 2 million after Clevinger signed for 3. He is also close to 3k k's so that adds a bit to getting him.
  10. jay87shot
    I am not saying he is hitting 20 bombS this year or next, just that it's in him. He is 6'3", if he fills out to say 210 there will be plenty of power. He did hit like 12 HR the 2nd half of 2022 in AAA.
  11. jay87shot
    I am sure Wilson or Hudson could also make a spot start here or there and go 50-60 pitches if need be. Eventually with this 39 games in 41 days stretch we will need a 6th starter, hopefully that can be Gasser. Murph was talking him up a bunch in camp and it gave me the impression he would be the 6th man when needed.
  12. jay87shot
    He quite clearly can be an average offense player. I have brought this up over the years with Turang but it seemed like every place he stopped in the minors it took him 30-50 games to adjust and then ended the season extremely well. It is just is going to take longer adjusting to big league pitching, it looked like he had done that last year after the all-star break until a wretched last month or so. I have always expected him to be a .260-.280 hitter with maybe 20 HR potential when his body fills out (i think he added 10-15 pounds of muscle this offseason).
  13. jay87shot
    Agree, imagine if he hits .275 or better we have a bunch of guys who play superb defense, run the bases, and have the potential to hit. Basically our entire lineup has the potential to be 5 WAR players other than Hoskins.
  14. jay87shot
    This helpful thanks for the in depth analysis, hopefully by the end the week we have good news.
  15. jay87shot
    Maybe having Ashby throwing 91-92 hitting 94 can be a blessing in disguise. If he learns to mix up his pitches and can hone done his accuracy when that 95-98 comes back he could greatly benefit from learning to battle with lesser stuff. Black playing a good 1st is awesome to hear, I doubt Bauers is going to last long this year. If Black comes up say in June he can play 1st a couple times a week (Rhys DH), essentially be a utility guy at 2B, 3B, and a 5th
  16. jay87shot
    That's a tough one, if I had a billion dollars and was the owner and gm of the Brewers yes no doubt. However we do have budgets and rationality of staff to take into effect. With Chourio and Yeli long term and will likely have some other young guys to pay as well it makes it tough. I think the worry for me would be the 10 years part, if we could make it like 7/98 I would think that would be a much easier decision. I still say we let this season play out until we have a clearer vision into what Quero is going to be. If Quero is a stud all year (cross my fingers on the injury) I would be swayed towards trading Contreras if Quero is ok-good but not great with the bat I would trade Quero in the offseason.
  17. jay87shot
    I think it says a lot that he can go 5-12 only hitting 1 ball hard. He will definitely have some rough stretches and hot streaks but the sheer talent is just so amazing.
  18. jay87shot
    Awesome stuff, any chance he becomes a starter? He seems a lot like Hader minus a few mph in his first year. Obviously it is super early but he has the funky lefty going for him.
  19. jay87shot
    Depends on Quero injury for me. Naverretto and Quero (and Kahle) we don't need more catching at AAA. If Quero is out a longer stretch I'd pick someone up. I am really hoping Cleveland stinks and Jose Rameriz is OK with a trade. He would be a perfect fit for us with a cheaper star contract. I would happily give up 4 good young pieces for him.
  20. jay87shot
    We probably won't get much more than cash considerations or a low end ptbnl for Haase. I doubt there would be more than 1 or 2 teams interested in giving anything up.
  21. jay87shot
    We are loaded with upside relievers, maybe not much in the way of late innings mlb talent but there are 10ish guys that I could easily see as long term mlb relievers in our system. I would add Tobias Myers to this list, I know he has been a starter and will be to start the year but I feel like his path to a productive career is in the bullpen. Maybe a young guy like Quinton Low will fit into a reliever mold after he recovers from his injury as well.
  22. jay87shot
    Great point, no Winker, Voit, Anderson, young guys struggling. 9 hits, 6 walks, a catcher int. Everything looks solid, rotation, lineup, pen, depth, coaching. NICE, VERY NICE
  23. jay87shot
    I'll give Stearns a break, he took over a dumpster fire. They are paying Schezer. Verlander and McCain like 65 million. That being said he had a iffy offseason in my book.
  24. jay87shot
    I get Muph likes to go left right left right and Dunn played well enough to DH. At 6 Rhys is a bit low but with a high obp usually that isn't a bad spot.
  25. jay87shot
    I would say Yeli is our best leadoff hitter, the problem is that he is also our best 2, 3, and 4 hitter as well. Since the young guys (Frelick, Ortiz, Chourio, Turang) all profile better as leadoff (or #2) hitters l, Yeli is best served as a non leadoff. Maybe in a few weeks if no one takes hold of leadoff you put yeli back.
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