BrewerFan

IIRC, Mahomes was in the low 20s at the time in the draft process when they traded for him. Trey Lance was not 3rd. Where a QB is ranked on the big board vs where they're actually drafted are usually two VERY different things. The top 3 players in this draft are not QBs. They'll likely be the top 3 picks. There's no way there should be 5 QBs taken in the top 12...yet ESPN has just that. You cite CBS Sports. I just gave you an example of them mocking McCarthy 5th to the Vikings(for 11 and 23). ESPN has Bo Nix 43rd...and going in the top half of the first rd. As for why the trade hasn't been done yet, it'd be a terrible idea to make the trade now. It doesn't ensure you're going to get the player you want. With more people speculating that Nabers may actually be better than MHJ(or go higher due anyway), you trade up to #5 months before the draft, now the Cards move down(knowing they can still get one of those top WRs) and another team slides in front of you and THEY take McCarthy. You might be right. The Vikings may try and trade into the top 3. And I'd bet that'll end up even more of an overpay relative to the charts that the proposed trade to #5. I think your rationale is sound here...I don't think QB needy teams in the NFL are very rational as exhibited by recent history.

And the Fed announced they expect 3 cuts to interest rates this year...sending the market soaring and...Gold...which is a bit strange. Gold generally goes up when the market is done. Have we seen Gold hitting All-Time Highs at the same time as the Markets? I don't know. I do know it was a great day for my portfolio. Raising the interest rates is just going to hurt those who are using their credit cards, paying higher interest rates on their credit cards, home loans, car loans. It seems like lowering the interest rate may help grow the economy even more than it currently is. More investment, particularly in real estate, more people buying homes. The Dollar is strong.

The one thing I've learned in my life...coming from one side of the family that was...not poor, but they didn't have much. No retirement, owned a modest home, lived on SS and most of the family members on that side were near the poverty line... On the other side in which my Grandfather was incredibly successful and started a business that became a huge corporation(when I say started, he was the 1st employee and owned about 3% in what became a billion dollar company(though when he got out it was worth...much-much less). In any event, one side was very wealthy, the other was not. It didn't matter. My Uncle who had a 500K salary in 1998 just out of pure nepotism, got so far over his head in debt, he had to have my Grandpa bail him out. On the other side, my Uncle was a Cop in a rural area...was injured in a bad accident, and his wife not once, not twice, but THRICE got them into over 100K in CC debt. One person can look at 500K and say 'I'd be able to live on that and save 350K a year,' and another is...hanging out with professional athletes and has expensive habits(and is an idiot). That's my whole take. Not gonna bury Ohtani when I don't really have reason to believe he did anything wrong here.

No way? We just saw it last year when the Panthers gave up #9, #61, a 2024 1st(#1 overall now) and, DJ Moore was at least worth a 1st. I don't think charts are particularly useful when a QB-needy team is trying to trade up for what it thinks is their franchise QB. SF traded the 12th pick+ a 3rd and 2 future 1sts to move from 12 to 3. I don't think that neither trade was good will have much impact. So I don't think 11+23 for 5...is that crazy or unlikely. I'd agree it's stupid to give all that up to get McCarthy...but they may believe he's a Herbert-type QB. I've seen that comp used. He wasn't asked to do much for Michigan, but he's got elite tools. Arm strength and accuracy look good, size and speed. If they want to move up to #3 to get Maye or Daniels....then the deal is going to look that much worse. I still think Minnesota would be smarter to build that roster up, deal some vets, suck it up and they'll be picking top ~5 next year and they can reset their cap, but I don't think they'll do that.

I'd have just kept him as their starter for a 6th. Have people seriously NOT learned it usually doesn't bode well throwing a QB into the first on day 1? Caleb Williams is an incredibly talented player, but listening to people with pretty good records evaluating his play and you can really see why they question him as a decision-maker. Mahomes, the guy he's most often compared to, what did KC do? They let him sit for a year. They put him in a system with two really good OTs(I think Wright is going to be elite, I don't think Braxton Jones is good...similar to my opinion on Walker). I think he can still be great, but the Bears are just not a good place to develop a young QB. .

Take the best offer? Yes, athletes have a very high level of confidence...but it seems like it's largely Boras' clients who are unemployed(or signing short deals well into camp.

I agree, it's just a better draft at the top. CJ Stroud had an outstanding rookie season, but I don't think he was viewed as highly as the top 3 in this draft...and Bryce Young at his size, he certainly wasn't viewed as highly as Williams and Maye. Now there seems to be a lot of helium on Daniels with some arguing he's #2. It's just a better draft. Jayden Daniels is impressive. I've watched some videos where scouts break down his game and he looks like he's got a huge upside. The one knock is he doesn't like throwing it over the middle and lives outside the hashes. It's usually the other way around. When you say 3 1sts, you're talking about the 2 this year and then their '25 first, right? Or are you saying #11 and 3 first to move up? FWIW(and it's probably not much)...CBS has a mock with them trading their two firsts to get up to 5 for JJ McCarthy. That seems like an overpay, but as a Packers fan, I like it.

Yeah, I guess for a few teams, but the Dodgers just gave you the cheat code. Spent 700M on one player, 325 on another...and they're well under the luxury tax. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ Seattle though, the team that has been aggressive and where Snell wants to pitch(at least according to sources last week)...they have ~100M in room and a good team. The Yankees are up against the Cohen tax, but still in need of another TOR arm(they haven't been talking to Snell again recently). I believe if Arnold thought Snell could replicate last season or even close, Attanasio would sign off on it. It feels to me as though the Brewers FO operates with room to make moves should they arrive and Attanasio, if he's to be believed(and I find no reason not to)...he'd stretch the payroll to add a 2X CY pitcher who could have our rotation right back where it was last year(better if you believe Ashby, Ross, Gasser, Rodriguez contribute this year). And then a BP that is very deep with power arms even without Williams for a couple of months. That's not even accounting for DL Hall. The one guy I hope we don't see...at least until Sept, is Mis. He's so electric, he needs to build up that arm strength and be ready to step in next June every 5th day. But, if he dominates AA...who knows.

Wow...if that's true, he and Boras have REALLY overplayed their hand. I like Snell, I think that'd be worth it. I don't love the opt out and I'd still guess Seattle would be the destination. Clevinger seems like the best fit.

I really can't see any negative connotations in this video. He seems dejected. The Brewers seem like they send people for 2nd opinions pretty often. I'd guess he went to an orthopedic surgeon and then they send him to a specialist. I don't know if that's true, purely speculative. There seems like there's always going to be a little tension with players of Burnes, Hader, Williams caliber...when they're closing in on Free Agency and it's pretty clear they won't be with the Brewers long-term. You're at a point in your professional career where you're close to earning generational wealth so you want to protect yourself...and you're also still part of a team and you've probably been with the same franchise for 7-8 years at least. Anyway...I actually look forward to seeing how these guys step up and fill the void left by Devin. I look forward to getting the airbender back even more, but I like the pen, and the power arms, and as long as they can keep it in the zone, we've got plenty of talent in that group.

I literally just agreed with you. I simply said I didn't like how they did it.

They see all types of things I don't...when it comes to the draft or free agency. That doesn't mean I have to like HOW they went about it.

Ok, then when talking about injury history, the type of injuries also matter. He's never suffered any serious, long-term injuries. The point is, people want to talk about Jones going to the Vikings as though he was somehow...disloyal when I can't remember a Packer who's showed the "loyalty," that Jones has. It's also head-scratching that the Packers front office effectively guaranteed that Jones would be back this year saying "absolutely he'll be back," after saying he's the "heartbeat of this team," among other things...and then cut him immediately upon agreeing to terms with Jacobs.

Safety seems pretty weak. Again, why McKinney was so big. LBers...it's kinda wild how much it varies from one mock or one site to the other, but Wilson and Cooper seem to be the clear top two. I think once you start looking at big safeties, guys who probably can't stay at Safety in the NFL(or at least in a scheme the Packers are going to be using), there is a lot of value there. Especially on Day3. Guys who can help out immediately on STs, but can't really hold up in the slot. Oladapo(Or St), Dominique Hampton(Wash), Jaylon Carlies(Miss), Ryan Watts(Texas) are all guy who I think are probably more WLBs in the NFL than safeties. Carlies especially reminds me of Owusu-Koramoah from the scouting reports and a few clips. James Williams is listed as a LBer now as well. All big, athletic guys in that 6'2 210-225 range. IIRC, Ray Lewis was 6'1 220 when he came out. I wouldn't want to rely on one of those guys in year 1, but you have McDuffie and Walker. Assuming you target a LBer early, you can ask one of those guys to start transitioning to LB and see what you have.

If you want to argue that it made sense for the Packers to go with the younger back...ok. That makes sense. But just two things, again, Jones injury history is widely exaggerated. Played in more games than Dillon or Jacobs(using eithers 1st year in the league). He had some injuries last year, but had one other year in which he missed more than 2 games. I'd also disagree that his lack of carries is because he's "slight." 5'9 210 is pretty thick. He's had limited carries because the Packers have prioritized having a 2nd back and frankly, they haven't used him as much as they should have. One of the big complaints with McCarthy was that Jones wasn't given the ball enough when he was running well. He had a lot of 10-14 carry 60-90-yard games. Plus, Rodgers was pretty open about getting them out of run plays...for better or worse. The larger point I'm trying to make...I don't like how the Packers handled this. It reminds me of Nelson. Not Brett Goode or the whole whiny list of players Rodgers had, but there are some players you do have a bit more reverence for. The guys who have given up 10M once, then 5M another time to stay and play in the small town of GB. I think when you say he's "absolutely going to come back," and that you want to "do right by him," both quotes by Gutekunst, I think they fell short of that in cutting him immediately upon agreeing with Jacobs and after he refused to take an 8M pay cut. That is what I mean by being objective about it. Jones is getting crushed for playing for the Vikings. Well, the Packers kinda gave him a nice kick in the ass on the way out the door...and it's not like he wasn't at his best at least we saw.

It wasn't just last year, he has not been a good LBer in the NFL. They're in a really good place when it comes to the Cap. Love is going to get probably 5/250 added on. Hopefully, they can keep that at ~110 in GTD money...though I doubt it. I think...maybe Tom after that? What's the expression? Keep paying the Zach Tom types, letting the JRJ's walk(17GTD and 3/30 for him?) and the Packers will be in good shape. Still another ~50M in dead cap this year, ~25 next year and...that's the end of the "cap hell," they were in. They don't need to keep drafting like they have the last two years...but it'd sure help!

Yes. We have more than enough to sign if there was someone the Packers wanted. They're ~35M after you account for Campbell being cut. They have plenty of money if there was someone they wanted. I also really doubt they frontload Love's extension. There's really no reason to other than to limit what they can do.

No, he's talking about the population growth related to job growth. He broke down the growth of immigrants vs new births citing those just born won't be entering the job market. He says right in there, almost all those who immigrated are of working age.

That's probably right. He did seem to return the ball when it was kicked deep a lot less. He could have been pressing with the offense playing poorly and him in another FA year and then settled in. The Packers STs penalties didn't help either as he could take it out 5 deep, get it to the 23...not a big deal, but then there was a block in the back that put us at the 13 and that seemed to happen regularly early in the season. I hate gimmicky stuff and maybe that's what the new proposed KO rules are, but they seem really interesting. What is the proposal? The KO team starts at the 40, the return team starts at the 30, there is a ref who raises his hand and the KO team can't go until the ball is touched and the kicker has to get the ball in between the 20 and the endzone. Is that right? I saw it on a short McAfee clip. Didn't make total sense as he was talking about how just a regular kickback would come out to the 35. It also kinda punishes a kicker who can give you a lot of hangtime, but it doesn't sound like it's completely fleshed out yet.

You put almost any Center alone with Kenny Clark, he's gonna have a bad day. And I think you're...overstating the weakness of the OL and ignoring how big of an impact a veteran QB who gets the ball out on time+ play calling factor in. They were elite when Cousins was playing. When you put in bad QBs, they hold the ball and suddenly the OL ranking drops. I've said this with Billy Turner, Rasheed Walker, guys who benefited from Rodgers getting the ball out quickly and then the improvement in the OL play had as much to do with improvement in scheme and Love...IMO.

That is surprising, but I don't think it can be attributed to Nixon too much. He took the ball out from 5 yards deep and failed to get back to the 25 a lot. They're average field position after Kick Returns was 23rd. I think him being able to return kicks is more of a bonus than the reason they're paying him OR they think the new rule will go through and then Kick Returns are going to play a MUCH bigger role again. (Just a source for average starting position after KRs as I NEVER remember where I find/see these).

This feels like the opposite of objective concerning Jones. 1-Saying he might as well not have been there in the games he didn't get 10 carries is ignoring quite a bit(though you mention the 86 yards receiving vs. Chicago, including the game-breaking 52-yard TD reception, you still count that as a game that he "might as well not have been there." 2-I was talking about the contract and hard feelings on Jones side being offered...a slightly insulting pay cut and going to the Vikings. After all 3-His Cap hit of 17M is almost irrelevant. ~1/3rd of that is from restructures, voids, and SB. He wasn't being paid 17M next year. The only thing relevant here is money saved vs dead money. Asking him to go from 11M to 4M and why Jones would have turned that down given ALL he did for the Packers. 4-If you're going to go after his season and performance, or perceived lack thereof last year, then...being objective would be doing the same with Jacobs. You said 11 of 17 games early on. It's not. It's 11 of 19 games(and I reject the idea he might as well not have been there for the other 5). BUT, just going on his 2023 performance. He was 8th in expected yards per carry added among all NFL backs. Jacobs was near the bottom(6th worst). That accounts for a poor passing game, OL, etc...and that's per Next Gen stats. Then there are the intangibles. Jones loyalty to the Packers. What did Jordan Love say the key to beating the Cowboys was? Aaron Jones going off-script, helping chip on Parsons to give Love time to throw. Jayden Reed talking about how the receivers block harder for #33. Also, in this down year for Jones where he may as well have not been there 11 of the 17(but really 19) games, he still out-paced Jacobs in yards and he averaged 4.9 YPC. That's what Jacobs averaged in his HUGE breakout season in 2022. Finally, Jones is 7th all-time in yards per carry at just over 5 yards per carry....that's in the HISTORY of the NFL. I like Josh Jacobs...and the fact that they can go year to year with Jacobs, but the way you're downplaying Aaron Jones career in Green Bay? It's a bit insulting. His lack of back-to-back 100-yard games? How many times have we complained the Jones running well and not getting the ball? Also...Jacobs has done it 3 times for a total of 8 games. Jones did it 6 straight last year, including two of the best defenses in the league in the playoffs in what SHOULD have been at least an NFCCG run. As for him not having a 100-yard game in the playoffs. 99 as you said, 170 yards vs the 49ers when they lost 13-10. In total, in 5 of the last 6 playoff games, he's had 100 yards from scrimmage. That's pretty productive. This is what Jacobs did last year. So objectively they are giving up more money for a worse back for the 2024 season. When you factor in age, it's probably a risk worth taking, but if I'm Aaron Jones, I've done more than enough to be expected to get my Base cut by nearly 66%. I trust the Packers...but while you talk about Jones worst year of his career, this was Jacobs last year. Worse than Jones in every regard. So objectively speaking...it's pretty easy to see things from Jones perspective and why he felt like he was worth yet another pay cut. Jones also had a success rate on 62% of his carries despite what was a VERY poor OL early on. Jacobs 57.4...in his best year, just under 46% last year. I

David Green perhaps? Compared to many of the all-time greats by some pretty widely respected scouts and managers...but some maturity issues(as with Sheff) and being separated from family while his country was at Civil War had to have exacerbated that.

Fine...then let's just stop bringing up the one case and we can move on. And I agree...Bauer's not without blame.

If I'm Jones...I'm pretty pissed to be honest. We should try and look at this subjectively. 1-Jones takes less from Packers to stay here. 2-The Packers, in a year they're up against the cap and rebuilding, he takes a significant pay cut. 3-Following a 6 game stretch that had them arguably the hottest team in the NFL...led in large part by his play and coming into an off-season in which the Packers DO have cap space, they ask him to take another 6M pay cut? And then they sign a player who didn't perform as well as he did last year? None of this is to suggest that the Packers didn't make the right decision...that they shouldn't have signed Jacobs and moved on from Jones(I'm a little torn). Just that it's not hard to see Jones side of it. If I'm there when he comes back to have his # honored, I'll be there cheering. This doesn't diminish what he did(not the case for all those who donned the Vikings Purple).