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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Also remember that these are sample statistics, not an estimate of true skill. They tell you the average run value would expect from the offensive and defensive performance of the player. If this was an estimate of true skill, it would use multiple years and be regressed. And the regression would be larger for the defensive side of the metric, since a season of defensive stats is roughly equal to a half season of offensive stats. Dial's is like a poor man's play-by-play defensive metric, correct? He starts with zone rating and estimates chances? I think it works reasonably well but I'd like to see Hardy's UZR or (Dewan) numbers. Someone should bother Michael Lichtman(sp) (MGL) to give us his UZR for 2008 and his projected UZR for 2009. I want to say that I remember it being good in 06 and not so good in 07. If it's bad in 08, I might start getting nervous. Defensive metrics are just another tool. They should not be dismissed nor taken as fact.
  2. rluzinski
    As a general rule, when a SS plays at 2B, his defense improves. When a 2B plays SS, his defense suffers. Playing SS requires more skill overall, so let's keep that in mind for this discussion. Hardy's defense my have been overhyped when he was brought up but everything I've seen points to him being at least an average SS. And while Weeks is not the worst defender ever, I think it's fair to say that he's still a below average 2B. Average SS vs. Below Average 2B = Big Difference
  3. rluzinski
    Trying to time the market is somewhat analogous to trying to try to gauge the "hottness" of a batter when filling out your lineup card. Their might be some things to consider but a significant portion of he equation is unpredictable over the short term.
  4. rluzinski
    This one time, something really bad happened in Milwaukee, so it's probably better if you just stayed out of the city limits altogether.
  5. rluzinski
    I think it's funny that we all like The Office in general but can never even agree on whether a particular episode was great or terrible.
  6. rluzinski
    The Brewers are past the point of making an offer "just to make an offer" These are not the Brewers of 2000 but we are talking about the most coveted free agent in the league. I don't think the Brewers' offer to CC will be embarrassing by any stretch (4/$90?) but I doubt it will be even close to what he eventually gets. You just know that he's going to end up with a something silly like 6/$150 and it won't be coming from the Brewers.
  7. rluzinski
    I'd say in game management and pitching management is far and away the most important. As long as the team doesn't hate the manager, it's not going to be a big deal. They are going to play hard on their own because that's how they make money. Public relations? To me that's basically irrelevant. If the team wins a lot of games, I don't care which throw away comments he chooses for his next post game conference.
  8. rluzinski
    it 6/150. I'd love to put money on the Brewers' offer being less than that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I think it will be a token offer that Melvin knows will have no chance of being accepted. They have to make some kind of offer for PR reasons, obviously.
  9. rluzinski
    It's fair to assume that any franchise like the Brewers won't be able to outbit everyone else on the open market. Free agents give home town discounts but it's not dramatically large on average.
  10. rluzinski
    In case anyone is scared off thinking he pitched only well in Petco. 2007 Home: 2.51 Away: 2.57 Cherry pick much? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Let's try and be objective about this: Year: home/away 2006: 3.75/4.57 2007: 2.51/2.57 2008: 1.75/4.28 Over the last 3 years, he's had a FIPs of 3.51, 2.84! and 3.6. What's a fair projection... 3.5 ERA? His contract is certainly reasonable ($16.2 mil/year for 5 years). What is his likely production really worth? $18 mil/year? $20 mil/year? What kind of prospects is that difference worth? That's the way we need to look at this. Projected worth - current contract = value in trade.
  11. rluzinski
    since he's more of a first-pitch guy What makes you say that? I think the complete opposite is true.
  12. rluzinski
    Is it me, or is this talk of trading Hardy a lingering bit of Milwaukee's non-competitive attitude bred by 26 years of failure? I don't think the Brewers should trade Hardy but I think it's terribly unfair to characterize any suggestion to trade established players as a "loser mentality". As for Hardy changing positions, he'd be a fool not to do everything in his power to keep from being moved. Hall being moved from SS to 2B and 3B was a very different situation, IMO. Hall had a reputation for being a poor defensive SS in the minors. Furthermore, he was just happy to get a chance to start ANYWHERE in the majors at that point in his very young career. And I don't believe moving from 3B to CF would not have cost Hall money, provided that he could have handled it defensively. In comparison, Hardy is an established player who has a reputation for being a solid defender and will be a free agent in two years. It will cost him money to be moved (even if he's moved back to SS by whatever team ends up with him) and it's very difficult to argue otherwise. I can not see how his team would hold it against him to not want to be moved, either. But I'm almost certain that there will be little or no overlap of Hardy and Escobar anyway, so Hardy isn't going anywhere, anyway.
  13. rluzinski
    Bush lucks himself to a nice ERA for a season and now people want to lock him up? His walk and strikeout rate has regressed for two years in a row. The Brewers still have him for 2 years. Good enough for me.
  14. rluzinski
    If you have access to excel just use the Lahman database: http://baseball1.com/statistics/lahman54_xls.zip I looked at this exact thing, when someone questions TGJ's lack of power. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  15. rluzinski
    B- isn't bad by the way, and I've always loved Sheets. My point was, had Sheets played but actually hurt the team, you would have still given him a higher grade. That makes no sense at all. I'm not claiming some Sheets bias or anything. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Just questioning the logic.
  16. rluzinski
    The Packers have a huge head start but the Greater Milwaukee Area is far from being apathetic towards baseball. These last few years have proven that. If the Brewers could remain above average for an extended period of time, I think you'd see that huge gap shrink considerably. A few years ago, the Brewers were one of the worst professional sports franchises in the United States. Cultivating a large fanbase takes time.
  17. rluzinski
    I was just trying to explain who he was talking about. Fair enough. Everyone already knew, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    You mean, like over a 2 week period?
  19. rluzinski
    i also agree with thatsfreakinsweet that the largest obstacle to overcome is the bat waggle. It's just like every other gimmicky batting stance. In the end, it probably has no effect, either way.
  20. rluzinski
    That said, the Beasties are putting on the show specifically with political intentions, so anyone going knows this beforehand. Yeh, it would annoy me to no end to pay to be entertained with music, only to have to endure a stump speech. In this case, it's the point, though. It's like getting your free room but getting mad that you have to listen to the guy trying to sell you a condo for an hour.
  21. rluzinski
    Gamel had a nice year in AA but I don't think he projects as being very good in the majors for 2009. The offensive bar at 1B is set very high. I'd give him at least a half a year at AAA.
  22. rluzinski
    What was Sveum's reasoning for it? When was Kendal or Counsell leading off?
  23. rluzinski
    I was being conservative, since people have this misconception that Weeks is a bad offensive 2B. Even a conservative projection sets the bar relatively high, offensively. His defense is the major concern, however, and it generally doesn't develop in the same way offense does. A player's defensive skills do not generally peak in their late 20's. Weeks is probably is what he is defensively at 2B. Well below average, IMO.
  24. rluzinski
    Sheets was 26 when the Brewers got their insurance on him. And if you remember, it was still a pain for them to collect, as he had to miss a certain amount of days. So it really was catastrophic insurance for major injuries at resulted in substantial time lost. CC will be 29 and will be signing something like a 6 year deal. Even if it will be possible to have those 6 years insured, the premiums will most likely be very high. It's not like insurance is a get-out-of-jail-free card. The higher the risk, the more the insurance will cost you.
  25. rluzinski
    I'd say Orlando Hudson fits that line very well. .282/.346/.433/.779 for his career. I guess I was setting my sights a little lower for a replacement. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Hudson might be a .295/.360/.450 guy next year. And the fans loved his defense in 2007: http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2007_2B.html He's worlds better overall than Weeks will ever be. He's too good and will be too sought after this off season to get him at a reasonable cost. And he'll be 31 next year, so I'd be uncomfortable signing him to a long term deal. He'll get, what, 4 years, $10+ mil per, easy?
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