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Why is the board convinced Sheets is gone after this year?


uwisfan

I guess I feel a little disagreement over keeping Sheets than the sentiment thrown around here. I don't think Fielder is long-term, primarily because of the talent coming in behind him and the type of coin he will get this contract. But I do think there is reason to keep Braun and Sheets.

 

1) It isn't like the Crew has a sure-fire ace waiting in the wings. They have prospects that might become a #2 or a #3. Jeffress has #1 potential, but is far away and not inspiring confidence with his actions yet. Sheets stuff is still the best in the organization when he is on.

 

2) Getting a top-tier ace is very tough to do. The Crew should be eligible for a hometown discount, and Sheets was willing to stick around last time. We have already seen what the Crew is willing to pay for a mediocre innings-eater in Suppan, why not pay for an ace in Sheets?

 

3) Sheets injuries have not been of the career-threatening variety. At just 29, he still has a lot of tread on the tires. Yes, he had drastically reduced innings the last 3 years, but he was a HUGE innings-eater before that. Even with all these injuries, he has still put up great numbers and he even won 12 games last year. A lot of good pitchers have bad years where they win 12 games, and the Crew didn't have to suffer through that.

 

I guess I'm not sold on Sheets being gone yet. I don't think he'll be easily replaced and I think the Crew has spent more for much less.

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How much money do you think realistically will get thrown at him? Other teams see the same factors the Brewers see on health, so I don't think he will get outrageous money. He didn't get outrageous money last time and was a known commodity. The Crew showed a willingness to break the bank on good help with Cordero also.
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Ben Sheets is going to get a minimum of 15 mil per year. Even if he goes the entire year healthy with an ERA of 3, they are going to be very hesitant to pay 15 mil a year to a guy that has the injury plagued past that he has.

 

And when I say 15 mil a year, that is an absolute MINIMUM... even if he gets hurt again this year. It will probably be more than that if he DOESN'T get hurt this year.

 

Most of us don't WANT to see him go, but I really believe that you are fooling yourself or in denial if you think he's going to stay here and take 10 mil a year or something like that. That's a pretty hefty "hometown discount" and it's not going to happen.

 

The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc etc may be able to afford to make a 4 year 60 million dollar mistake, but the Brewers cannot.

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I'm sure DM will offer him an aggressive contract, but it really depends on what Sheets and his agent see. Lee was offered a contract, Coco was offered a contract, and they both left for more money. I don't think that everyone expects the Brewers to just let him walk, but I for one expect him to turn down whatever offer we give him.

If I had Braun's pee in my fridge I'd tell everybody.

~Nottso

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I guess I feel 15M/yr is doable after seeing the contract offer for Cordero, as long as the length isn't too far. I would snatch it for 3 years..4 years is a little more iffy. But would I take a chance on Ben straight up over Cordero? Yes, you can replace a closer like Coco more easily.
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I guess I feel 15M/yr is doable after seeing the contract offer for Cordero, as long as the length isn't too far. I would snatch it for 3 years..4 years is a little more iffy. But would I take a chance on Ben straight up over Cordero? Yes, you can replace a closer like Coco more easily.

 

Cordero isn't injury prone like Sheets. And yes I agree with you 100%... if I had to do a big contract like that I'd take Sheets over Cordero in a heartbeat just because an ace is much more valuable than a closer to me. But it's probably not a smart investment to put 60 mil into a guy with the injury history of Ben Sheets just because he has one full healthy year.

 

And once Sheets is gone the team can get over this "we can't win without a healthy Sheets" mentality that I think they have. That's the good thing about the situation. For the past 3 years every MLB preview article written says something along the lines of "if Sheets is healthy, the Brewers can contend/win the division". I think a lot of the team actually believes that themselves and doesn't think they can do it without him. And that's not good when he hasn't pitched a full season in 2 or 3 years.

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On thing that should be taken into account is that after the season is over that between Sheets and Gagne account for 21 million dollars this year. For those who think Sheets is gone for sure, there's no doubt that Gagne will be as well (same rational, does well brewers can't afford him; poorly or average brewers don't want him back at his price tage). Why not take the money Sheets is already making and Gagne's money and pay him 15 millionish a year?

 

That being said, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Hart are all up for arby next year. That's going to be less then cheap. I do expect another payroll bump next year though--even more so if the brewers make the playoffs.

 

One key could be finding a way to unload Jeff Suppan. I don't dislike him, but he's a luxury the brewers can't afford if they want to resign ben.

 

I'm still of the opinion that Sheets will not be back next year. The Yankees are thin in SP and could outbid the Brewers without a problem.

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If Sheets repeats his 2004-2006 K rates and performance, he's going to get $20 million a season. I think he's going to pitch that well. He's probably going to rack up a lot of wins, too, and as long as he has some good luck health-wise (the caveat for any pitcher, of course), he'll be gone. He's certainly going to get more than three years. I'd guess along the lines of five years is more likely.
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With the Yankees history of getting veteran starters in their 3rd contracts backfiring, I wonder if they will stick with that strategy. Obviously the Yankees name will get thrown around for every free agent, but they can't have them all. If anyone can't afford an injury-risk, veteran starter in his 3rd contract, I'd put the Yankees up there. They have had too many injury risks on their roster already.
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If Sheets repeats his 2004-2006 K rates and performance, he's going to get $20 million a season. I think he's going to pitch that well. He's probably going to rack up a lot of wins, too, and as long as he has some good luck health-wise (the caveat for any pitcher, of course), he'll be gone. He's certainly going to get more than three years. I'd guess along the lines of five years is more likely.

Santana is making like 23 million a year with a much cleaner injury history and past success. I would be really surprised if Sheets cracked 20 million a year. I think 18 a year is about as much as he'll get unless there's a big bidding war.

 

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With the Yankees history of getting veteran starters in their 3rd contracts backfiring, I wonder if they will stick with that strategy. Obviously the Yankees name will get thrown around for every free agent, but they can't have them all. If anyone can't afford an injury-risk, veteran starter in his 3rd contract, I'd put the Yankees up there. They have had too many injury risks on their roster already.

I think what is going to cost the Yankees this year is starting pitching. They'll pay any price next offseason to make sure that doesn't happen again.

 

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

The Brewers are pursuing deals with many of their young players right now, guys who are making less than a million each are about to jump to several million each after this season. Ben is going to get a huge contract, just look at his mound opponent today - Barry Zito got a horrible contract out of the Giants - if Ben tops 200 IP this year, I'll bet someone offers him an insane contract.

 

It really depends on what Ben wants, the only way I see him here next year is if he flat out wants to be, and decides not to take top dollar.

 

Not only do I think he's gone, I also think Houston will aggressively pursue him, they have lousy pitching right now, and they're the closest MLB team to Ben's family.

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If Sheets has a good year, the team likely has a good year, he gets a bunch of publicity, and high win totals. All of this leads to a ton of interest. One downfall of finally having a great team is that other teams will pay more attention to our players and will overvalue them because they're "winners". See: Suppan, Jeff.

 

When you combine his recent injury history with the Brewers budget, it just won't be likely that we retain Sheets. The upside is that, as mentioned, a bit of salary comes off the books from Sheets and Gagne, and we can hope both will be type A, getting us 4 draft picks. The money will have to go to retaining current young players, but will hopefully also allow us to pick up 1 solid FA.\

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"1) It isn't like the Crew has a sure-fire ace waiting in the wings. They have prospects that might become a #2 or a #3. Jeffress has #1 potential, but is far away and not inspiring confidence with his actions yet. Sheets stuff is still the best in the organization when he is on. "

 

You forget about Gallardo. The pitcher who dominated last season...

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I most certainly didn't forget about Gallardo. I've followed him closely in the minors and he will be a great #2 and probably a poor #1 for a playoff team. I don't think Soup is a respectable #2.. maybe if they can dump his salary, they can pay for Sheets. How many SPs has this organization had with the kind of stuff Sheets throws?
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The sound of:

 

Gallardo

Suppan

Parra

Villy

Bush

 

is a significant downgrade to the rotation next year unless we get huge improvement from the young guys. It looks like the Brewers are going to have to go out and overpay a mediocre pitcher again this off season if Sheets leaves just as the Twins did with Livan Hernandez when Santana bolted.

 

Dear Mark Rogers,

 

Please have a breakout year and be ready for the rotation by 2010. (same with Jeffress)

 

Sincerely, Rillo

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This is a list of the highest paid starters this year.

 

Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)

Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)

Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)

Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2008)

Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)

Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)

Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)

Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)

John Smoltz, $14,000,000 (2008)

Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)

Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)

Randy Johnson, $13,000,000 (2007-08)

Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)

Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)

Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

 

I would think the market for him if he has a great year could be in the 14-18 million range.

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Well we lose Cameron (replace him from within) at 5M

we lose Gagne (replace him from within) at 10M

we lose Counsell (replace him from within) at 3 M

 

We won't really need any other free agents and will have pieces we can trade to upgrade any deficient positions.

 

I think we can make Sheets a strong offer and expect we will.

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The Crew should be eligible for a hometown discount, and Sheets was willing to stick around last time.

The problem with this is the Brewers just bought out his arby years. He was never going to be a free agent.

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Well we lose Cameron (replace him from within) at 5M

we lose Gagne (replace him from within) at 10M

we lose Counsell (replace him from within) at 3 M

But then you have to consider Hardy will get a raise, Weeks will get a raise, Fielder will get a big raise, Suppan gets a big raise, Bush gets a raise, Hart gets a raise, if Cameron's option is picked up he gets a big raise, if Torres' option gets picked up he gets a slight raise. So while we are shedding some player salary it's not going to make up for all the raises we're going to be paying.

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Ok his own contract will be off the books. Plus as said earlier Cameron, Gagne, Mota and Counsell are gone. Money should not be a reason to let him walk, he's too good for that. The Brewers don't have much of a chance at his level of free agent very often so keeping him around is huge.
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