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J.J. Hardy: How far has he fallen?


adambr2

How far has he fallen?

 

Is Hardy one of those guys that we expect to suddenly come around, or is what you see with Hardy right now what we get? It's not just a sudden slump. He hasn't looked good since the early-middle part of last year after his strange MVP-like first two months of 2007.

 

He doesn't hit for a good average and he's never going to be on base a ton. He's not fast. His slugging percentage is absolutely abysmal, he's got 4 extra basehits on the year. At this point, there's really not a single offensive category that he's even average at. Is he just not a starting caliber player?

 

 

(clarified thread title --1992)

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I believe he's starting caliber, but just average.

 

I don't think he excels at any one part of the game. I really have no reason to believe he'll ever match his homerun total of last year again. Whatn really scares me is he just flat out isn't get the barrel on the ball. He's had so many "texas leaguers" up the middle this year. IMO it could be a lot uglier stats wise for him.

 

I'm not sure I'm ready to trade him yet. So many on here are raving about Escobar, but man are his offense numbers ugly. Out of all the struggling players, he's the most I'm unsure about.

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The good thing -- imo, just mo -- is that he's been BBing while his bat isn't hot (14 BB with 108 AB). I think that's a very encouraging sign. Ennder basically predicted this improved BB rate from Hardy over the offseason.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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If you mean, should we expect Hardy to continue hitting like he is right now, don't think so. Did you expect Hardy to keep on hitting like he did at the start of last year? I sure hope not.

 

Before the season started, he was projected by ZiPS to hit .262/.318/.421. He's currently hitting .231/.317/.287. There's no way he keeps up an ISO (SLG-BA) of .056. His slow start probably knocks that projected SLG down a few points but I don't see how I should expect him to ISO less than .100. No way.

 

Hardy looks more and more like a guy who's not going to walk ort hit for much average but has a little power. For a decent fielding SS (which I think Hardy is), that isn't exciting but it's acceptable.

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The good thing -- imo, just mo -- is that he's been BBing while his bat isn't hot (14 BB with 108 AB). I think that's a very encouraging sign. Ennder basically predicted this improved BB rate from Hardy over the offseason.

 

Of course he is going to walk...He is batting in front of the pitcher. Why would you pitch to Hardy when you can just pitch to the opposing teams pitcher.
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That's an old myth. I can't recall which thread, but someone debunked it pretty well. The study they cited (done by a 'legit' baseball analyst) looked at #8 hitters all across the NL for the full 2007 season, IIRC, and actually found that notion to be not only incorrect, but that guys actually BB'd less batting in front of the P.

 

Don't get caught up believing stuff just because it's been repeated a bunch of times.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Of course he is going to walk...He is batting in front of the pitcher. Why would you pitch to Hardy when you can just pitch to the opposing teams pitcher.

 

I would have thought that was a fair assumption until I read this from fellow Brewer fan, Sackmann:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/

 

Quite surprisingly, the walk rate didn't improve, at least in 2007. I wouldn't call the findings conclusive by any means, however. It's more of a quick look that a study.

 

Of course, when we are only talking about 100 or so AB, the particular situations in which Hardy walked is most important. If the majority came with 2 outs and runners on, I would think those walks tell us little about Hardy's supposed new found ability to walk. Since the sample size is so small, I don't think it tells us much, anyway.

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Hardy has been all over the place so it is hard to tell what he is going to be. Here are his month by month OPS's since he started hitting decently in the 2nd half of his rookie year.

 

 

 

.801

.680

.949

.772

.515 (only 9 games)

.869

.961

.685

.558

.821

.744

.603

.603 (only 4 games)

 

He has been an above average offensive SS for most of those months but he has had some stinkers in there as well. To complicate things he had that really nasty virus in spring training and they said he lost 10+ lbs. As soon as I heard that I traded him from my fantasy team, every time I hear that kind of thing happen to a player it seems to hurt them for a month+.

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Hall and Hardy are a big reason why the team stinks right now,But The other half of the Infield are not exactly lighting the world on fire.

 

Hall is on pace for 35 HR and 95 RBI.

 

Hardy is on pace for 5 HR and 45 RBI.

 

Don't see how the two compare. Hall is struggling too but his swing looks fine to me wheras Hardy looks a bit lost up there.

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Hall and Hardy are a big reason why the team stinks right now,But The other half of the Infield are not exactly lighting the world on fire.
Hall is on pace for 35 HR and 95 RBI.

 

Hardy is on pace for 5 HR and 45 RBI.

 

Don't see how the two compare. Hall is struggling too but his swing looks fine to me wheras Hardy looks a bit lost up there.

 

Bill Hall is batting .210 with an OBP of .279. I'm not sure how his swing looks fine.
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Hall

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2008 Mil 33 124 11 26 6 0 7 19 12 35 1 2 .210 .279 .427 .706

Hardy

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2008 Mil 31 108 8 25 3 0 1 9 14 14 0 0 .231 .317 .287 .604

 

Hall

SEASON TEAM TPA #PIT #P/PA TB SF SH HBP IBB GIDP GB FB G/F
2008 Mil 137 544 3.97 53 0 1 0 2 3 42 36 1.17

Hardy

SEASON TEAM TPA #PIT #P/PA TB SF SH HBP IBB GIDP GB FB G/F
2008 Mil 124 482 3.89 31 1 1 0 3 4 48 37 1.30

Also Hall has a lot more extra base hits than Hardy does. Hardy is struggling at the plate more so than Hall is. Hardy's average and OBP are deceiving. Half of Hall's hits have been for extra base hits. Hall is fine he will never hit over .260 unless it is a career year. He will hit 25-30 HR's a year though. Hardy will be lucky to hit 20 ever again in his career.

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The good thing -- imo, just mo -- is that he's been BBing while his bat isn't hot (14 BB with 108 AB). I think that's a very encouraging sign. Ennder basically predicted this improved BB rate from Hardy over the offseason.
Of course he is going to walk...He is batting in front of the pitcher. Why would you pitch to Hardy when you can just pitch to the opposing teams pitcher.

 

Of course there are situations were the 8th batter does get pitched around or intentionally walked from time to time. Having said that most number 8 batters bat 8th because they are not good hitters and Hardy has not proven consistently to be a good hitter. Unfortunately for the Brewers, Weeks and Kendall are also probably best suited for batting 8th as well and as for Hall well thats another story.
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Also Hall has a lot more extra base hits than Hardy does. Hardy is struggling at the plate more so than Hall is. Hardy's average and OBP are deceiving. Half of Hall's hits have been for extra base hits. Hall is fine he will never hit over .260 unless it is a career year. He will hit 25-30 HR's a year though. Hardy will be lucky to hit 20 ever again in his career.

Hall may have home runs but he has also struck out 21 more times. They are both struggling mightily.

 

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nate82 wrote:

Also Hall has a lot more extra base hits than Hardy does. Hardy is struggling at the plate more so than Hall is. Hardy's average and OBP are deceiving. Half of Hall's hits have been for extra base hits. Hall is fine he will never hit over .260 unless it is a career year. He will hit 25-30 HR's a year though. Hardy will be lucky to hit 20 ever again in his career.

Bill Hall's career average is .261 in nearly 2,200 at bats. By your standards I guess he's having a "career career". As far as J.J. Hardy, I just hope he can reach double-digit home runs by the end of the year. He clearly isn't a guy that will regularly hit 25 a year, but to have a .287 SLG through 1/5 of the season is just pathetic. His range isn't all that spectacular, so really all he is bringing to the table right now is above-average arm strength.

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That's an old myth. I can't recall which thread, but someone debunked it pretty well. The study they cited (done by a 'legit' baseball analyst) looked at #8 hitters all across the NL for the full 2007 season, IIRC, and actually found that notion to be not only incorrect, but that guys actually BB'd less batting in front of the P.
You forgot to include the part where the research also showed the hitters hit for a higher average, OBA, and slugging % in front of the pitcher. So we should be very disappointed in what Hardy has done in 2007. He's still a terrible OBA guy, just as I stated before the season.

 

I would like to add that I should really cut Hardy some slack, as I think he's one of the players thats been hurt the most by Yost's abbrasive personality, as suggested last season by Tony Graffinino. Hardy will likely show some improvement when Yost gets fired.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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I would be shocked if Hardy never hits 20 HR again as he hit at a 20+ HR pace the 2nd half of his rookie year, the first month of his 2nd year and all of his 3rd year. It might be just 20 or 21 HR but he has that type of power.
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Bill Hall's career average is .261 in nearly 2,200 at bats. By your standards I guess he's having a "career career". As far as J.J. Hardy, I just hope he can reach double-digit home runs by the end of the year. He clearly isn't a guy that will regularly hit 25 a year, but to have a .287 SLG through 1/5 of the season is just pathetic. His range isn't all that spectacular, so really all he is bringing to the table right now is above-average arm strength.

IMHO I believe Hall is not a player who will hit over .260 every year. He will be around the .240-.250 area. Which is fine as a #6 hitter as long as he is getting his extra base hits.

 

I don't see how a strike out is worse than a pop out or a ground out. They are both equal 1 out, one is not worth more or less they are both equal.

 

A strike out can actually be better than a ground out. Example if you have a player at 1st and 1 out do you want the player to strike out or hit into the double play ending the inning. I would rather take my chances with the next hitter. Strike outs have become an overrated stat when looking at players who strike out. There are times when a pop out is beneficial, a ground out is beneficial, and a strike out is beneficial to a team.
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I don't see how a strike out is worse than a pop out or a ground out. They are both equal 1 out, one is not worth more or less they are both equal.
1. Popups and groundouts are capable of advancing runners.

2. Popups and groundouts force the defense to actually make a play. Those plays sometimes result in errors.

3. Popups and groundouts mean that the player is making contact, and that contact should eventually allow hits to drop in. Weak singles are still singles. Sometimes a popout is line-drive straight at the Left Fielder, and sometimes it drops in the Left-Center gap.

 

If a player is striking out a lot, that probably means that they just strike out a lot. You can't look at a lot of strikeouts and think that the player will probably get better with them. If they're hitting lots of popups and groundouts, those hits should eventually start falling.

If I had Braun's pee in my fridge I'd tell everybody.

~Nottso

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A strikeout isn't any worse than a ground out. It is worse than a groundball though. There is a difference in there that people seem to fail to understand. If you are looking at AVG/OBP/SLG already then the number of strike outs is 99% useless, it is just giving you information about what kind of outs he made. Striking out is bad in general because it leads to a lower AVG but if you are already looking at AVG then it just doesn't hold much value.

 

A strike out with runners on 2nd or 3rd stinks, a groundout with runners on 1st stinks, it mostly evens out.

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