Todd Coffey close to an extension

[Madtown Bomber]

Just got this email from a good source. I'll let the email tell the story:

I'd fully expect Todd Coffey to be signed up before the start of free agency. The organization has been talking to Coffey's people since returning from Cincinnati. I wouldn't be surprised if something isn't already worked out. Something around 2 years at about 3.5-4 mil plus incentives.

Nice to see since he was arguably the best relief option in September.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

He did do well in his small sample and maybe a change of scenery is what he needed, but I wouldn't rely on Coffey to be one of our top relievers throughout the year. He'll be a nice 7th inning guy though to mix and match with a LHP.

[MillerParkSouth]

doesn't that seem like a lot of dough for a guy who was in the minors for Cincinnati? I mean, he pitched great down the stretch, but it's a very small sample size. Do we really want to go 2 years on him?

[dadofandrew]

He's arby eligible, so he's going to get paid. He was unhittable in September, and scouts were all over those games...I was hoping he'd sign a minor league deal, but he simply outperformed that.

[endaround]

Strange how someone unhittable gave up 6 hits in 7 innings. He had a good 7 innings, hardly the first time Coffey has done that.

[fallingleaves]

Coffey may have been great for us, but looking at his track record I am quite skeptical.

[zzzmanwitz]

Coffey close to closing a deal to become closer? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm all go Coffey coming back, but not as closer and not sure he is worth that much. But he as rather good for us.

[TheCrew07]

If he's extended this will typical Melvin, overpaying for the bullpen... my one complaint against him.

[BrewCrewForever]

I suppose if he has a year close to the September he had for us it would almost be a bargain. He has the stuff to be a good late inning guy. Not sure what his problem was in Cincy.

[RightFieldCoder]

I thought that once we got rid of Yost we wouldn't need any more Coffey in the clubhouse.

[GB12]

Coffey close to closing a deal to become closer? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I used to make so many jokes about the Reds having Todd Coffey as their closer. If that happens for us I will be very sad.

[LouisEly]

$3.5-4M per year, or total? Total? Yeah, I could buy that. Per year? No flippin' way. Not for 7 innings from a guy picked up off the street in September.

[sbrylski]

Look at Coffey's HR/FB rate:

 

2005, 58 IP - 8.8%

2006, 68 IP - 10.4%

2007, 51 IP - 26.1%

2008, 26.2 IP - 20.0%

 

That has to go down, regressing to the mean. Coffey will be a good guy to keep around, possibly performing better than Riske.

 

Is the rumored contract $4 million total, or per year? The former I'm okay with, I would be surprised if it would take the latter for him to ink.

[Madtown Bomber]

The contract was total not per season.

[pitchleague]

If he's extended this will typical Melvin, overpaying for the bullpen... my one complaint against him.

I understand exactly what you mean, but at the same time you have to look at our farm system and see that we really are not producing big-time arms for the major league bullpen, so what's Melvin supposed to do then?

 

I really hope that sometime our minor league pitchers will just go bananas and give the Brewers 2-3 quality arms for the bullpen that will be on the team a good 5 or 6 years.

 

The Orioles tried the bullpen FA signing thing a few years ago and it REALLY tanked. We were lucky this year that our starting pitching and, except for September (and all year when RISP w/2 out), our hitters kept the team around the top of the division.

 

Todd Coffey as a reliever for the Crew? I thought it was hard to believe last month--especially with some of those career numbers in Cincinnati. But, perhaps, he does need that change of scenery. He's always had a very live arm so maybe the Crew "stole" one, for once, off the waiver wire. I'd give him one year but I'd be iffy on a 2-year deal or more.

[JJHardy7]

He's always had a very live arm so maybe the Crew "stole" one, for once, off the waiver wire.

 

Dan Kolb, Turnbow, Wise, etc.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

He's always had a very live arm so maybe the Crew "stole" one, for once, off the waiver wire.

 

Dan Kolb, Turnbow, Wise, etc.

The problem with those guys was that none of them was good for more than 2 years max. Every team gets a decent player off waivers.

[JJHardy7]

The problem with those guys was that none of them was good for more than 2 years max. Every team gets a decent player off waivers.

 

Those are pretty good players for the short-term though. Those three players played a huge role in their time in Milwaukee. The sad thing is that Kolb and Turnbow were both fan favorites and turned into goats. As far as waiver wires go, I'd like to see in the past few years how many teams have had waiver wire closers with the success that Kolb and Turnbow had. I'm going to guess that list is small and maybe only includes the Brewers.

 

My comment was that pitch said 'stole one for once' and that's not right IMO. They've been there and done that. I don't think it will happen often though in the next few years because the Brewers simply won't have the spots for waiver type players on the 25-man roster.

[fleehaw]

He may be their only example, but as long as Jenks is closing for the White Sox, they're probably on that list with the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Wasn't Doug Davis a waiver wire guy and Podsednik and Brian Shouse.

 

As for Coffey it depends on which one shows up. If it is the guy who had over 7 K/9 in 2006/2007 I'd want him for sure. Regardless a guy like Coffey is useful in the bullpen since he usually has over a 50% GB rate. One interesting thing I see in his stats is he didn't throw change ups this year for some reason. In the past around 7-8% of his pitches were change ups but this year it was only 1.4%. He went slider happy and it doesn't look like the results were good.

[zurch1818]

Wasn't Doug Davis a waiver wire guy and Podsednik and Brian Shouse.

Doug Davis and Scott Podsednik were waiver wires, but we traded Enrique Cruz for Shouse. There is a name from the past -- good move by the Brewers.

 

I think 4 million dollars total for the contract is too much. It should be an incentive based contract due to the fact that he was awful last year (referring to 08) before he was with the Brewers. I think there was a reason why he was in AAA to begin with. I have nothing against him, he pitched well for the Brewers in September, but I need to see more from him before we throw 4 million dollars at someone that could very well turn into a Matt Wise.

[Fatter than Joey]

That has to go down, regressing to the mean.

 

Why?

[sbrylski]

That has to go down, regressing to the mean.

 

Why?

 

Its just not a sustainable number. That's a decent round at the home run derby. It may not come down to league average, but I'll put $100 down that it'll be lower next year in the same amount of innings or more.

[Fatter than Joey]

Two things....

 

1.) If I flipped a coin 100 times and got 100 heads -- I understand that is an unsustainable rate -- but flip 101 is independent event, and so is Coffey's tendency to give up jacks.

 

2.) I think we are conditioned to think of "Regression to the Mean" as something that is going to happen from one season to the next -- Just because Coffey has a HR rate X in season A -- it does not ensure that Coffey will be at 1/X for season A+1 -- It may even out, but it may do so over 3-4 seasons.

 

The reality is -- is (much like Turnbow), if he gives up as many hits/HRs/BBs as he did in Cincy (or Turnbow did in Milw) -- he probably won't be given the chance to "regress to the mean"

 

I certainly do not believe that Coffey is going to give up a jack on every 4th FB, but that could be said about any MLB pitcher, and has no predictive value IMO.

 

In short -- I think signing Coffey is a gamble much like Gagne was -- you end up betting on what pitcher you are going to get -- based on stats alone, it's really a crapshoot IMO.