Braden Looper signed: 1 year w/mutual option, worth between $5.5 mil and $12.25 mil; Rottino DFA'd (replies #150/151), will report as long as he isn't claimed (reply #181)

[Patrick425]

The writer: "I hear you guys are going to Milwaukee."

Mrs. Looper: "That'll have to come from Braden."

So, if it weren't true, the wife would have just said no, right? She obviously wants that news to come from her husband, not her.

Ahhh..no Tom, maybe she's just smart enough not to get involved when it comes to answering reporter's questions about her husband's career.

[TheCrew07]

Looper is pretty similar to what we already have at 3-5 so he wouldn't really upgrade the rotation, just the depth.

 

Not a single person in our 3-5 threw 199 innings last year, and only one of them posted a sub 4.2 ERA in the innings that they did pitch. I fail to see how this is not an upgrade.

I don't believe Looper will be that good for the Brewers, I certainly could be wrong, but the CHONE projection for him is right about what I would expect from him. His career numbers are not that great. He had a nice season last year, but I'm not going to base my opinion of him on last year, especially with an entirely different infield defense behind him.

[PeaveyFury]

His career numbers are not that great.

 

I guess I don't see where you're getting that from. He's been above average as both a starter and reliever every year in his career since 1999.

[Ennder]

I don't believe Looper will be that good for the Brewers, I certainly could be wrong, but the CHONE projection for him is right about what I would expect from him. His career numbers are not that great. He had a nice season last year, but I'm not going to base my opinion of him on last year, especially with an entirely different infield defense behind him.

I would tend to agree.

 

Gallardo between 3.25 and 3.75.

Parra between 3.75 and 4.25.

Bush between 4.25 and 4.75

Looper between 4.35 and 4.85

Suppan between 4.65 and 5.15

McClung between 4.90 and 5.40

 

Those are probably the ranges I'd expect pitchers to end up in this year as a full time starter. If they all hit the wrong end we have a below average rotation but not massively below average. They all hit the top end and we have a good rotation. They all hit the middle and we are average to above average.

[Bernman23]

Looper's ERA away from pitcher friendly "New Busch" the last 2 seasons has been 6.81 and 4.52, or a raw average of 5.67.

 

According to ESPN, New Busch was only one ranking higher as a pitcher friendly park than Miller Park (22 for the Keg, 23 for Busch).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

19 vs. 12 the previous year.

 

And the Cardinals pitching staff has been worse than the Brewers', while their hitters have been better; which is going to skew those #'s in the favor of New Busch being a hitter's park in comparison to Miller.

 

Away the Cardinals have had a 4.755 ERA the last two seasons, and scored 4.72 runs per game. In contrast the Brewers had a 4.535 ERA away and scored 4.625 runs. We're talking about a .315 runs per game total difference, or 57 runs per year less at New Busch. Which would add .16 runs to Looper's ERA, all things equal projecting to a 4.71 in Milwaukee.

 

Also, in a small sample Looper himself has struggled transferring his success to Miller. He had a 10.80 ERA in 2 starts in '07 and a 6.00 in 1 start this season. Like I said, a small sample, but more evidence in the direction of him not being who he was in St. Louie.

 

Those past struggles in that particular environment my be in his head a little, at least in the interim.

 

I'm going to say his ERA is around 5.00 as a starter for the Crew.

[bklynbrewcrew]

This deal would add depth but Looper is far from special. If it means McClung is not in the rotation to start the season I consider it a good move but I was really hoping we would make a trade and acquire a top of the rotation starter not just another 4/5. Hopefully its for one yr and not a ton of money and it will be a decent if unspectacular signing.

[Invader3K]

Not the most exciting signing, but the depth this creates is quite huge, like everyone else has said. I was surprised when I heard about this this morning, as I figured if the Brewers did add any other pitchers, it would be of the scrap heap/reclamation variety. Looper is not that.

[endaround]

Looper is likely about a 1-1.5 win improvement over McClung. Better than what the Brewers had but given the available pitchers this offseason not really exciting.

 

But that's not the whole picture- how much better is McClung than who he replaces in the bullpen?

 

McClung isn't any better than Difelice and maybe slightly better than Wright. McClung in long relief doesn't do much of anything. He is replacement level and if the Brewers can find another pitcher I still wouldn't be surprised to see him cut.

[MessiahRp]

Looper is likely about a 1-1.5 win improvement over McClung. Better than what the Brewers had but given the available pitchers this offseason not really exciting.

 

But that's not the whole picture- how much better is McClung than who he replaces in the bullpen?

This assumes McClung will even pitch well in the pen at all. He has not been good in the bullpen which is precisely why he wants to be a starter. His performance as a starter lowered that ERA and made him statisically successful. In the bullpen he has not performed well and I wouldn't doubt he'll be a downgrade from whomever he replaces for that slot.

 

Rp

[TheCrew07]

His career numbers are not that great.

 

I guess I don't see where you're getting that from. He's been above average as both a starter and reliever every year in his career since 1999.

It's probably fair to say he's a mid 4 ERA type guy. He's had a nice career as a reliever, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and has only been a starter for 2 seasons.

[bklynbrewcrew]

McClung isn't any better than Difelice and maybe slightly better than Wright. McClung in long relief doesn't do much of anything. He is replacement level and if the Brewers can find another pitcher I still wouldn't be surprised to see him cut.

I completely agree about McClung. He will never have the control to be any better than replacement level. I definitely agree that if he doesnt have a good spring he may not make the team.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

We have to keep McClung as insurance for an injury. It would be silly to cut him out of Spring Training unless he stinks up the joint. I'd keep him on as a long reliever just for the sole fact that he's our emergency starter.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

So I guess this is the silver lining to the Brewers not having to save $$$ to pay for the 1st round draft picks that we would have gotten for Sheets and Sabathia.

[kramnoj]

I don't think it's reasonable to be unhappy with Melvin for not making a move that may not have been available. I'm sure he would have loved to have acquired a 1/2 pitcher, but he probably couldn't have acquired one without overpaying. I think Melvin played this offseason as well as could be expected, given what was available and the resources that he had. Melvin has built a team that should be in the running for a WC team. It won't be guaranteed to do so, and a couple of injuries could easily sink the season. But I think the Brewers are right around 85 wins or so, and that should be enough to keep them in the WC race.

[Bernman23]

(McClung) has not been good in the bullpen which is precisely why he wants to be a starter.

Huh?

 

2006:

Reliever- 4.43

Starter- 6.81

 

2007:

Reliever- 3.75

 

2008:

Reliever- 3.67

Starter- 4.24

[JohnBriggs12]

McClung not better than DeFelice? I won't bother to respond to that.

 

Anyway, here's what I don't like about Looper. He's gone 6 straight seasons allowing more than a hit per inning and 4 of those years he was a reliever. Good relievers usually allow well under a hit per inning so I'd say he was a mediocre reliever.

 

I'm not sure Looper is any better than McClung, but he adds depth they sorely need. I'm not even 100% sold that it's McClung who he replaces. The chances everyone is healthy on opening day is never better than 60-40 anyway and one of the starters (Parra) still has one option left. Frankly, if they paid more than the D-Backs paid for Garland, I will think they overpaid.

 

I will agree that "strengthening" the long relief role is meaningless. If you have to use a long reliever enough times that it makes a difference, well then, you're pitching is in trouble. I think if McClung goes to the pen, it means either Julio or Coffey will have trouble making the team.

[silversurferr]

Whatever. McClung has good stuff and good versatility; he can do everthing from spot-start games to occasionally close them. His control keeps him from being a good pitcher, so he will occasionally get blown up. So he could be a decent bullpen horse. Difelice is a one inning pitcher. If he goes long, he turns into a batting practice pitcher.

[Oldcity]

Cutting McClung would save a decent amount of cash and would probably be similar to cutting Vargas a couple years ago. Also I'd be open to keeping him in AAA starting since he's not really a clear improvement over any reliever anyway.

 

Difelice is a one inning pitcher. If he goes long, he turns into a batting practice pitcher.

What are you basing this statement on?

[strawbossisevil]

McClung is making no where near what Vargas would have made that offseason. That comparison is ridiculous.

 

McClung makes three times the minimum, hardly a "decent amount of cash". McClung is a solid bullpen arm, one who also is able to put up solid numbers as a fill in starter. There is no way that he isn't worth what we are paying him IMO. And I don't think any "savings" we'd get from cutting him, could go to a more valuable piece for our current team.

[Invader3K]

Well, at least there should be some real competition for the rotation now, instead of just having to basically stick to the 5 as laid out now, and panicking if someone gets hurt or just doesn't have it during spring training.

[And That]

McClung not better than DeFelice? I won't bother to respond to that.

DiFelice. DiFelice. DiFelice. Why do so many people have difficulty spelling the poor guy's name right?

 

As for "not bothering" to respond to something (when you've already tacitly responded to it by acknowledging it) - why bring it up if you're not going to respond? It smacks of condescension. If you think McClung is vastly superior to DiFelice, state your case. Or don't bring it up. Either way.

[Invader3K]

Well, how could you possibly say DiFelice is better than McClung when he has only appeared in a total of 15 MLB games? Maybe he'll end up being a better pitcher, but I think it's too early to tell. Anyway, McClung is only going to make about $1.6 million this year, so even if he's terrible, it's not the end of the world for the Brewers.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cutting McClung would save a decent amount of cash and would probably be similar to cutting Vargas a couple years ago.

 

McClung signed for $1.7M -- I think Vargas was around $3.5M -- so cutting Vargas saved a bit more coin -- I'd rather keep McClung around as a #6 starter when we need it.

[topper09er]

The depth is good, there is no way any team only uses 5 starters, its nice to have more than 5 decent starters on any team. Hopefully Macha won't just "go with my guys" like the Ned Yost approach and if Suppan struggles his first ~10 starts he might finally be removed from the rotation. I have a feeling they are going to tell McClung you are the 6th starter out of camp and as soon as anyone goes down/struggles you are in the rotation, which McClung wont want to hear but should keep him motivated in the pen and he will do a good job there.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Agreed. I would treat McClung like a starter in Spring Training as well by stretching his arm out accordingly. I'd hide Wright in the minors as well as a nice insurance policy. We sure are looking a lot better than we were 2 weeks ago in starting pitching. Having 7 available starting pitchers is a necessity in today's game.