Rotation Order

[rluzinski]

Projections, for reference :

 

Name Marcel ERA/Chone ERA

Gallardo: 3.59 / 3.50

Bush: 4.29 / 4.30

Parra: 4.44 / 4.21

Looper: 4.42 / 4.85

Suppan: 4.82 / 5.31

 

The Marcel ERA average is 4.30. Pretty average, assuming no one gets hurt (not a very good assumption).

 

Just don't skip any starts (at least early) and I'm fine with Gallardo pitching #1. Bush and Parra's projections are pretty similar, with Parra obviously having the higher upside.

[ILuvDaBush]

Yo

Bush

Looper

Parra

Soup Nazi

 

JohnBriggs had it right. Yo has to be at the top, if simply because he is by far the best starter. Bush and Looper are serviceable mid-rotation pitchers. By keeping Parra at #4 and the Soup Nazi at #5, you give yourself the ability to skip ANY Parra start and substitute the most dependable (health-wise) starter on our squad. Yo's IP don't need monitoring like Parra's do.

[Ennder]

Just to add one more reference, here are the PECOTA projections

 

Gallardo: 3.73

Bush: 4.27

Parra: 4.40

Looper: 4.62

Suppan: 4.91

[TooLiveBrew]

Yo's IP don't need monitoring like Parra's do.

 

I don't know about that. I mean, the kid has now blown out both knees. Sure, it's not his elbow or shoulder, but I think the Brewers need to be closely monitoring his workload in 2009.

[nate82]

Yo's IP don't need monitoring like Parra's do.

No Parra should be fine this year and he shouldn't break down like he did last year. Parra should be able to pitch 180-190 innings this year. Gallardo maybe limited more so than Parra's will be this year. I would expect Gallardo to be limited in innings in the early part of the season.

[crock921]

All I know is that I watched too many games last season where the 5th or 6th inning came around, Bush was in the 90 pitch range, and started falling apart. At this point Ned should have yanked him but didn't, and he ended up giving up multiple runs and blowing games.

[rluzinski]

"All I know is that I watched too many games last season where the 5th or 6th inning came around, Bush was in the 90 pitch range, and started falling apart. At this point Ned should have yanked him but didn't, and he ended up giving up multiple runs and blowing games."

 

This is a common criticism fans have of just about all mangers. It's true that starting pitchers generally lose effectiveness the deeper they get into games. And for a mediocre pitcher like Bush, there probably is no need to let him go 100+ pitches very often. But your memory seems to be failing you with regard to Bush being more susceptible to a late game collapse. In fact, it appears that the opposite was true in 2008:

 

http://www.baseball-refer...amp;year=2008#situa-innng

 

Bush basically dominated in the 6th and 7th last year. Some fans just have this notion that managers should immediately pull mediocre pitchers if even one base runner reaches after 5 innings. And any run given up by a mediocre starting pitcher after the 5th is a run that could have been saved, the theory seems to go. But if you effectively limit your 3-5 pitchers to 5 inning starts, you'll be giving up plenty of 6th inning runs because your bullpen is going to die.

[rousieboy]

With Gallardo as our top pitching prospect, missing all of last season, and never throwing over 190 innings in a season, I think it would be wise to have him on strict pitch counts and skip some starts by having him as the #5 man in the rotation. I think it decrease his injury risk and keep him fresh for the end of the year so he doesn't die in September like Parra did on us last season

Well said! I think that Bush should be the #4 and Yo be the #1 for the first week to get Bush a home start and Yo a chance to feel like the ace. After that, I would not be opposed to resting Yo early as a #5 starter is not really needed for a while.

 

Just my thoughts.

[Ennder]

Yo's IP don't need monitoring like Parra's do.

No Parra should be fine this year and he shouldn't break down like he did last year. Parra should be able to pitch 180-190 innings this year. Gallardo maybe limited more so than Parra's will be this year. I would expect Gallardo to be limited in innings in the early part of the season.

Will Carroll who studies this type of thing says Gallardo should be fine for 200 IP since it wasn't an arm injury. Parra is likely a 180 IP or so starter this year. Parra also throws higher stress innings in general, though hopefully he starts throwing more strikes and it evens out some.

[Darnell Junior]

I would go with:

 

1) Gallardo

2) Bush

3) Parra

4) Looper

5) Suppan

 

Seems to be a pretty popular 5... By the 2nd or 3rd week it's usually irrelevant anyways due to skipped starts or an injury, but that's what I would go with.

 

Side Note: I'm VERY excited to see that all five of our projected starters can swing the stick a little bit. It's a nice little bonus.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

McClung has been pegged as the 6th starter as we all expected.

[ILuvDaBush]

Yovani

Bush

Villy

Looper

Parra

 

Your best five starters. :-)

[Ennder]

I don't know that CV has shown he is capable of being a productive starter. Pretty much all of his success has been in the bullpen so far.

[BrewCrewForever]

Villanueva to me is best in the pen and that is where he has the best value.

[BrewCrewForever]

Bill James Projections:

 

Gallardo: 13-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 196 innings

 

Parra: 9-8, 3.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 154 innings

 

Looper: 11-10, 4.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 187 innings

 

Bush: 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 192 innings

 

Suppan: 9-11, 4.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 184 innings

[valpocrewsader]

Bill James Projections:

 

Gallardo: 13-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 196 innings

 

Parra: 9-8, 3.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 154 innings

 

Looper: 11-10, 4.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 187 innings

 

Bush: 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 192 innings

 

Suppan: 9-11, 4.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 184 innings

How does this compare to the rest of the NL central? (Or can you provide a link so I can look it up myself?)

[BrewCrewForever]

valpocrewsader, I just went to www.fangraphs.com and typed in each players name.

[ILuvDaBush]

I was joking about Villy, though, to be honest, he hasn't been given the longest of leashes when he was a starter. I think he is better deployed as a reliever if last year's numbers are any barometer, but I could also see him having a Ryan Dempster-type resurgence later in his career, hopefully in Milwaukee.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm VERY excited to see that all five of our projected starters can swing the stick a little bit. It's a nice little bonus.

That is a nice bonus. This group is easily the best hitting group we've had since joining the NL. Big difference from the year we had Sheets, Doug Davis, and Victor Santos in the same rotation.

 

 

 

I think its cool we have 6 starters available who had ERAs under 5 last year. Thats rare. Now we just need 1 or 2 to dominate to drag the team ERA down.

[ILuvDaBush]

Ned Yost was a year early with the idea of batting the pitcher eighth.

[Yeti73]

To start the season, I'd love for them to go Bush, Manny, Soup, Yo, Looper. You can't walk Soup out there on opening day after the playoffs and the offseason; the fans have unfairly dogged the heck out of him and they'd turn on him quickly when he gives off a leadoff shot to Soriano. I think it'd be best for the fans and Soup's confidence to get his first start on the road and not in an opening day atmosphere. If you give Yo a few more days after the WBC and then you put out your big off-season signing, I think that is a good first two days in Milwaukee.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well it sounds like Gallardo will not be our Opening Day starter. I don't agree with that at all. All I have to say is, it better not be Jeff Suppan.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/39717602.html

[OOOverbay]

If it is Suppan I am going to go nuts. I know it is only one game, but it will be deja vue. Suppan starting instead of Yo. Now where have I seen that before?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

"I'd much rather have this guy go out and start in the middle (of the rotation) somewhere," said Macha. "I don't know where it's going to be. Who knows? He might be the second starter.

"When you get to the all-star break and have three days off and have a chance to rejuggle your guys, that's probably when you need to get whoever's pitching best in that slot.

'I don't think we can do that (put the pressure of being No. 1 at the outset). That's my opinion."

 

Based on that logic, Parra also wouldn't be the opening day starter. That leaves us between Bush, Suppan or Looper. Yuck. Why not use your best starter on Opening Day?

[bklynbrewcrew]

This makes no sense. Just start your guys in the order of quality. That means Yo starts game one and Suppan is the 5th starter. Saying that Gallardo would be under too much pressure as the number one guy is nonsense. I remember starting Suppan in the deciding playoff game instead of Gallardo and how did that work out.