College Basketball 2011-2012

[Baldkin]

The worst part is: No Gus Johnson.

 

Also, the Badgers get Spero Dedes and Bob Wenzel doing their game. Hopefully iheartradio is streaming and I can listen to Lepay.

[Glennron]

I'm pretty sure Marquette gets Lundquist and Raftery which isn't any better. I don't mind Raftery if he's speaking normally, but unfortunately that doesn't happen very often. Lundquist is somehow only 71 but you'd think he'd approaching 90 with the way he calls games sometimes.

[patrickgpe]

on yahoo

 

name:brewerfan.net

group id 125591

password: brauny

 

please use your brewerfan.net handle so we know who each other is.

[bjkrautk]

Actually UW doesn't defend the 3 very well - look at their performances against Butler, Cornell, Davidson, etc., in the tourney the last few years.

 

The 2011-2012 Badgers led the nation in 3pt FG defense (27.6% allowed) during the regular season.

 

I'm not going to dissuade you from looking to previous seasons, since I fully expect the Badgers to lose when they don't hit their 3's and they run into someone who does hit theirs. That's pretty much applies across-the-board when facing double-digit seeds, it just seems to happen to the Badgers more often than to most.

 

On the other hand, this year's team swung the pendulum quite a bit from being one of the most efficient offensive teams to being one of the most efficient on defense. (It's also part of swapping Leuer, Jarmusz, and Nankevil with Ryan Evans, Mike Bruesewitz and Jared Berggren.) The Badgers gave up surprisingly few 3pt attempts for a good defensive team, which shouldn't get lost in the analysis either.

[Oldcity]

Michael Hunt wrote a column saying Marquette and Wisconsin should both reach the Sweet 16.

 

Then I see his picks: Vanderbilt in the Final Four.

[M Skjellyfetti]

Ken Pomeroy recently took a look at 3 point defense on his blog (kenpom.com/blog). The conclusion was that 3pt% is not something defense really controls. What a good 3pt defensive team will do is limit 3 pt attempts, as a previous poster alluded to.

While it is nice that UW led the nation in 3pt % defense, that doesn't mean a whole lot. Likewise, pointing to UW's past tourney experiences means absolutely nothing--a) those are different players than this year and b) it likely wasn't something those teams could have controlled anyway.

[trwi7]

I had ESPN on last night because there was nothing else on and their experts were doing one region of the bracket each. Each bracket ended up with the 1 and 2 seed in the Elite 8 except for one that had 1 and 3 and Dick Vitale had the 3 and 5 (Florida State and Vandy) in his Elite 8 matchup. None had more than one upset in their side. People actually take these guys as experts? How often is there not at least one upset in a region? Even if it's a 10 beating a 7.

[M Skjellyfetti]

I hear what you're saying, trwi, but I get just as annoyed when they go crazy the other way. It seems like so many experts just pick a random upset or several to use for their picks. They offer a generic explanation for why Team X can beat Team Y (veteran leadership, some good player that will be a "tough matchup", etc.); doing a pretty good job of sounding like they know what they are talking about. Then, when their crazy upsets don't happen, no one hears about it again. But if somehow they get one right (by sheer dumb luck), then they become heralded as a college hoops expert.

[craigharmann]

Almost every year at least 1 or 2 4/5 seeds lose to the 12/13 seed. A 7/10 goes to the 10. At least 1-2 8/9 games go to the 9. That said, I've made a few upset picks this year that I'm hoping I'm right on.

 

VCU over Wichita State. VCU was in the Final 4 last year. Experience.

 

Xavier over Notre Dame. 7/10 to the 10

 

Harvard over Vandy. 5/12. Everybody is high on Vandy. I like smart people.

 

We'll see how horrible or great my picks are. I didn't watch much college hoops this year. And I have a feeling this tourney is going to have a load of close games!

[TooLiveBrew]

Last season's NCAA Men's hoops tourney was the busted-iest my brackets have ever been. I sure hope I fare better this season.

[owbc]

This year's bracket is just screaming upsets all over the place. The major conferences are weak. Don't get fooled by the seedings. The matchups are much more even than most years.

 

Syracuse should lose quickly, either to K-State/Southern Miss or certainly to Wisconsin/Vandy. That is if Vandy can survive Harvard, they are due to get knocked out quickly after having an emotional run in the SEC tourney. Cincinnati over Florida State perhaps? Path looks most favorable for Ohio State.

 

Creighton over UNC seemed like a worthwhile pick. Michigan will get knocked out by the Temple/South Florida winner. Belmont over Georgetown is possible for 14/3, otherwise SDSU will get them. I think Kansas will beat Purdue but it will be close. Creighton is my wildcard to get out of the Midwest.

 

In the West, I like Long Beach State as an unlikely Sweet 16 team. Memphis over Michigan State is a popular pick--should be a close game. Murry State should give Marquette a good fight. Mizzou probably has the easiest path to the elite 8, but Florida has been hot and Donovan is a good tournament coach. Gotta go with Izzo in this region though.

 

Overall the South is probably the most predictable region, which means it will probably be a disaster. Xavier has been inconsistent but they could be the ones to take down Duke. Otherwise maybe Baylor will do the job. Wichita St. is also getting some hype for potentially creating havoc. Can't go against Kentucky here.

 

I'm going to invoke my B1G bias and pick MSU over Ohio State in a gritty 57-55 dogfight.

[homer]

If they meet, I think Virginia could knock off Missouri.

 

Missouri runs and guns and doesn't play a whole lot defense. Virginia is the complete opposite.

[Schlitz001]

I'm going to school at the University of Montana right now, so go Griz?

 

I agree wholly that this years bracket is going to resemble last years and maybe even be worse. The highest seeds just aren't dominant enough.

 

As far as the "experts" go, they might as well pick the top seeds because their brackets are getting busted either way. You have a greater chance of picking correctly if you pick chalk and besides that you have the masses on your side when you look a fool.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that there may be unprecedented upsets in the first round this year. I've got two 14 seeds in my Sweet 16. St. Bonnie's and Iona (sorry Marquette fans). I think that this may also be the year a #1 seed goes down (I looked at the Syracuse/UNC-Asheville game long and hard). I could see Wichita State or St. Mary's in the Final Four as well.

.

[Glennron]

I'm kind of surprised by the two of you thinking Syracuse will lose before the second weekend. Out of curiosity, what's the basis for that? And Creighton would be able to score on UNC, but they play little to no defense.

[Baldkin]

I found this article pretty fascinating about the history of upsets

[RockCoCougars]

I'm kind of surprised by the two of you thinking Syracuse will lose before the second weekend. Out of curiosity, what's the basis for that? And Creighton would be able to score on UNC, but they play little to no defense.

 

I would never say that a #16 will beat a #1 because it's never happened, but I'm thinking that Asheville has a small chance. I think that the Big East is down in general this year, and Syracuse was not impressive- to say the least- in theconference tourney. Ashville can put up some points and shoots a good FG pct. The key is if they can beat Boeheim's zone. The fact that they have five guys who average in double figures may help with that. Syracuse is a poor FT shooting team as well. All told, I'd say that they maybe have a 5-10% chance of winning as opposed to the <1% chance that most 16 seeds have.

[berniebrewer4life]

I think i have developed a foolproof system for picking a national champion. I drink a few beers(enough for a light buzz, but not sloppy drunk), and look at each matchup. The first team that pops into my heads advances. Before you laugh(or stop if you already started), i've picked the last two national champs this way. So my pick? Marquette(and for the record, i'm not a MU fan). Take it for what it's worth.

[rwa12]

While the power conferences are down, there aren't exactly dominant mid-majors either. Creighton is pretty inconsistent. I don't think Syracuse loses too early, as they are incredibly tough with Fab Melo playing. I put little to no stock in conference tourneys. Most teams just don't care about them if they are already locked up. My early upsets are Belmont, South Dakota St, and Long Beach St. I'm not much of an expert, but I'll be in Vegas all weekend. Hope I at least know enough to make some money (or break even). My Final Four is Kentucky, MSU, OSU, and Kansas. Kentucky beating Kansas for the title.

 

The team that scares me is Duke. It seems every year I don't think they have a chance, they blow through the tourney. They aren't very strong, but if they get hot, they could win it all.

[thebruce44]

I think i have developed a foolproof system for picking a national champion. I drink a few beers(enough for a light buzz, but not sloppy drunk), and look at each matchup. The first team that pops into my heads advances. Before you laugh(or stop if you already started), i've picked the last two national champs this way. So my pick? Marquette(and for the record, i'm not a MU fan). Take it for what it's worth.

 

Your method intrigues me, especially as an MU fan. You need to start a blog.

[homer]

Fab Melo ruled ineligible. Syracuse cries in the night.

[fondybrewfan]

Melo being out significantly improves UW's chance of making it out of the bracket. Obviously they need to win 2 this weekend to get to Syracuse but Cuse is a lot less daunting without Melo in there.

 

It also helps me favorite 3 seed; Florida State. I had FSU beating Cuse anyways.

[homer]

Melo being out significantly improves UW's chance of making it out of the bracket. Obviously they need to win 2 this weekend to get to Syracuse but Cuse is a lot less daunting without Melo in there.

 

It also helps me favorite 3 seed; Florida State. I had FSU beating Cuse anyways.

 

Agreed. Of course, I got all excited last year when Butler advanced.

[Oldcity]

I was strongly considering picking UW to reach the Elite 8 anyway. I think I will now.

[Baldkin]

Nostalgia moment: I can't believe it has been 12 years. Time flies... I still haven't forgiven Dick Bennett for quitting midway through the next season.

 

 

Also- I really think the Badgers have a shot at the final 4. The more I look at the draw, the better I like their matchups. It will all come down to if someone (Rob Wilson) can be that extra shooter they've needed all season.