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2013 Draft prospects discussion


A post somewhere else on BF (can't recall where, sorry) basically asked about the 2013 draft class, and in working on my own P50 list this afternoon, I got to wondering about it as well.

 

I wanted to link to a few sites' rankings of the '13 eligible players, but ... not surprisingly... most of that is subscriber-only content. However, John Sickels did a "very preliminary and just a rough ranking" in late June, and it's free content. So I hope that can get discussion started.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/26/3117536/2013-mlb-draft-just-getting-started

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As of right now there seems to be some nice talent that are projecting to be at the top half of the 1st round. Some college guys include Ryne Stanek, Karsten Whitson, Bobby Wahl, Mark Appel, Colin Moran, Austin Wilson, Sean Manaea, and Kris Bryant. Some HS guys include Clinton Hollon, Jeremy Martinez, Oscar Mercado, Stephen Gonsalves, Zach Collins, Justin Williams, and Clint Frazier.

 

The Brewers seem to be drafting based on minor league need, at least for the 1st round. For example, during the time of the 2011 draft, they were void in upper-level pitching, so they drafted advanced college arms in Jungmann and Bradley. During the time of the last draft, the Brewers were void in hitting in general, so they drafted Clint Coulter to provide a high-upside bat in the lower minors, and Victor Roache to provide a high-upside bat higher up in the minors.

 

At this point my best guess would be that they would pick a HS pitcher who could provide high-ceiling pitching in the lower minors, or a college hitter because they could use some more advanced bats despite Hunter Morris or Scooter Gennett.

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Rondon will likely be the 1st overall pick in 2014, that ship has already sailed.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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I like Trey Ball the best but I am not sure he will be available when the Brewers are picking next year. The second player that I would want the Brewers to look at would be Kevin Franklin but he is probably more of a late round pick and then see if he signs or not. I would love to get either Austin Wilson or Justin Williams. I don't think Wilson will be available where the Brewers will be picking but it is early and maybe his stock will fall a little and he falls in the Brewers lap. In the end I think the Brewers go with Colin Moran. He is a rather advanced hitter and could be somewhat like Braun and progress through the minors rather quickly. Moran is probably going to be a rather good defensive 3B and the Brewers currently lack a good 3B prospect in the minors. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers take Morlan with the 8th or 9th pick in the draft.
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I'm hoping for either Clint Frazier or Justin Williams as of right now. If the Brewers decide to go with a college pitcher, I'm hoping for Bobby Wahl, and maybe Karsten Whitson, but I doubt he falls to the Brewers. I wouldn't mind Colin Moran, though.
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The list linked above was interesting and exhaustive if a little bit skewed in accuracy. One of the players on the list, Alexander Bostic is a lefthander for Weddington High School in North Carolina, where I am an assistant coach. We won the state championship this past year as Bostic, then a junior, went 12-0 on the mound, with 90 innings pitched - 36 hits plus 46 walks and 143 k's against top competition (he went head to head vs. Ty Buttrey who got 1.3 million to sign with the Red Sox -neither gave up a run). Bostic also hit 9 home runs including 1 that hit the scoreboard at a minor league park (only 1 minor leaguer had ever hit scoreboard before) and had a 1.71 OPS in his last 20 games.

 

Can you tell I handled the stats for Weddington.....:) Bostic, who is committed to Clemson (the Clemson coach said in March that Bostic would be his Saturday starter if he could enroll him 2 years early) sat at 90 at the perfect game outing in Minneapolis this summer before leaving with a broken cheekbone from a foul ball. I think he should be picked in the first 40 picks or so as he is 6'4 205 and projectible and is a great, smart kid. Someone to think of for the Brewers in the 2nd round perhaps.

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I'm pretty sure Moran is Surhoff's nephew.

 

I didn't realize before checking in on this thread that if the draft was held tomorrow the Brewers would have the 8th overall pick. While I've been following from afar, they are not the 8th worst team in baseball, so I'll take a premium, top-10 pick.

 

That said, the Brewers can't mess it up.

 

Next year should be a good year to get a quality college arm with plenty to choose from. If they go with a prep bat, I want Dominic Smith. Incredibly smooth hitter that reminds me a ton of Adrian Gonzalez. Reese McGuire is another one of my faves. Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows are also studs from the prep level, but at this point in time I wouldn't expect them to fall to the 8th pick.

 

If I were the Astros I would take Frazier No. 1. My money is on the Cubs taking Appel with the 2nd pick, assuming Appel has a similar season. The Astros already passed on Appel once, and I would expect them to do so again no matter how good he is next spring.

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Rondon will likely be the 1st overall pick in 2014, that ship has already sailed.

 

My point was at the moment, next year looks extremely bleak. And Rodon may be the #1 pick right now, but by then he could slip. My guess is he'll be somewhere 1-5 and the Brewers might be there too.

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I understood/understand exactly where you are coming from, but I just can't see the Brewers being the worst team in Baseball next season.

 

The only thing that will push Rondon down in the draft is an injury, and I hope for his sake that doesn't happen. His stats won't regress, even without his best stuff he was dominant over the summer for Team USA. The BA link is a subscription piece so I won't share it, but in case you have subscription:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/summer-scene/summer-league-top-prospects/2012/2613899.html

 

He's certainly not a finished product, he has plenty of work to do like all young pitchers, but there isn't another LHP in college baseball who has more upside.

 

According the article I linked right now he'd be right there with Appel going 1-2 in next years draft if he were eligible.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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If he's a free agent I'm pretty sure the Brewers won't sign him, as 99% of the time they do not pay much attention to Japanese players (or so it seems). If he's entering the draft then he won't even get to the Brewers because there's very little chance 16 teams are going to pass on an 18 year old throwing 100 mph.
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Going with the 99 theme (which may not be very credible considering one of the Brewers best players is Japanese), I'm 99% positive Otani would be a free agent, but this is truly unprecedented. The draft is only for players in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico.

 

I've also been told that it is 99% likely he signs with the Dodgers. They have the most people that have seen him and the most resources invested into making that happen.

 

Speaking of the draft, I'm pretty pumped for this week as I'm going to be seeing a ton of the top HS prospects at this WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, FL. I've already saw a ton of guys earlier in the summer, but let me know if you want any thoughts on any players.

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I'm expecting high-school lefty Keegan Thompson to go right around where the Brewers select in the first round. While he's not listed quite that high on most mocks HS pitchers sometimes take a bump when their season gets going (Henry Owens, Addison Russell, etc).

 

He may be a guy to go after.

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Thompson's a righty, and he's not a particularly projectable righty either. He tops out at 93/94 currently, but typically sits around 88-91. He's also a Boras guy from what I've heard, and is likely to take the college route. He is a very good competitor though, and can swing the bat as well.
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Thanks. Here is some info that there are some good 3b prospects in the college ranks. We just need to snag the right one. http://baseballdraftreport.com/2012/12/

 

Relevant excerpt:

 

3B: San Diego 3B Kris Bryant and North Carolina 3B Colin Moran (2)

 

Third base is the one position so far that an argument could be made has more star power at the top in the college ranks than it does at the high school level. This isn’t meant to disparage the above-average group of prospects that make up the cream of the prep crop, but is instead designed to shed some much needed positive light on what looks to be an all-around lackluster year for college position players. The outlook is bleak for teams looking for a quick fix bat at catcher, first, second, or short, but third base could provide up to a half-dozen regular big league third basemen from the college game alone. The two names that jump out as likely first round talents are Bryant and Moran. I no longer doubt Bryant’s future as a big league power hitter, but his defense at third remains a work in progress. He’s more athletic than often given credit, so, if nothing else, he should have a home in RF if his drafting team deems his glove at the hot corner unplayable. In many ways I feel like Moran has been put on the draft landscape just for me. That’s mostly because I’m an unrepentant egotist, but also because I a) love guys who consistently play above their tools, b) am a complete sucker for a pretty lefthanded swing, and c) have the importance of plate discipline, having a plan prior to every at bat, and generally taking a measured yet violent approach to hitting ingrained deep into my pitch black soul. Moran offers up a resounding check mark for each of those qualifications. I think he’s a better version of last draft’s Matt Reynolds with the upside of San Diego 3B Chase Headley.

 

*****

 

Definite Maybes

 

Virginia Tech 3B Chad Pinder, Arkansas 3B Dominic Ficociello, Texas 3B Erich Weiss, Stephen F. Austin State 3B Hunter Dozier, College of the Canyons 3B Trey Williams, 3B Cavan Biggio, 3B Travis Demeritte, 3B Wesley Jones, 3B Jan Hernandez (9)

 

The next tier down includes guys like Pinder, Ficociello, Weiss, Dozier, and Williams. It’s a fairly tight bunch, so my advice is to pick your favorite and run with it. I wouldn’t rule out any of those names making a run at the first round, but I also wouldn’t count on it either. Analysis! Pinder’s tools and I think he could grow into a plus defensive player, but he’s got plenty to prove at the plate, especially with respect to his approach. I’ve always personally viewed Weiss as a poor man’s Moran, but a few friends in the game I’ve spoken to actually prefer the junior from Texas. Dozier reminds me of a less heralded version of Pinder. I currently prefer Dozier – more physical, better approach, similar athleticism, maybe a touch less defense but not far off — over the Virginia Tech third baseman, but the two are fairly close in my mind. Ficociello has a really intriguing hit tool, but offers less overall upside than the rest of the bunch for me.

 

Finally, we come to Williams. Williams, for the 99.9% of the readership unfamiliar of anything written here before this precise point in time, was a huge favorite last year. Like, highest rated third baseman in the entire 2012 MLB Draft huge. I preferred him over Richie Shaffer, Joey Gallo, and Addison Russell, among hundreds of others. Nothing has changed since last June and now, so here’s a reprint of my notes on him then:

 

1. 3B Trey Williams (Valencia HS, California): big hit tool; potential plus to plus-plus raw power; advanced idea of how to hit, e.g. big opposite field power threat; strong arm often categorized as plus; potential star defensively at third base; great reactions and instincts; outstanding athlete; plus bat speed; plus hit tool; slightly above-average speed; very strong; has that special sound; pitch recognition to be monitored; super quick bat, solid approach: very patient, lightning in wrists; swing needs some work, but what is there is a fine building block; strong arm, steady defender; below-average speed, but quick feet and reactions at third; should be an average defender at worst with much more upside than that; big-time raw power, personally I’m a believer; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R

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I'd actually like to see the Brewers draft some pitchers. Sure they have good depth with pitching in the minors, but not much in terms of guys with eye-popping stuff, especially in the lower minors. Peralta's gonna be graduating into the majors soon and Hellweg and Nelson could be following in a short time.

 

I'm quite intrigued by Jordan Sheffield, but his commitment to Vanderbilt could cause him to come with a high price tag, and possibly more than the Brewers are willing to pay for.

Ryan Eades also sounds nice but his stuff hasn't translated to results and from the videos I've seen from him the arm action seems a little concerning.

Jonathan Crawford probably will be taken before the Brewers pick

Clinton Hollon sounds nice as well.

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A.J. Puk looks to be a good bat to pick up he can pitch also but I am not all that impressed with his pitching. Puk has Dunn like power and Dunn like speed probably will be a 1B but he has a really good arm which he could play RF though his speed is not all that great but he does have a strong enough arm to play 3B though I believe he would look more like Cabrera over there than Braun. Clinton Hollon is someone who I am intrigued by but he maybe injured right now? Possibly something with his elbow so that may make his stock tumble. Dustin Driver is another High School arm to watch for. Ryan Boldt looks to be a great CF prospect though I am not sure that is a fit right now for the Brewers. Trey Ball is still someone I like rather well and who I believe should be available when the Brewers are picking. Ball could either be an OF or a starter though unlike Puk I think Ball is more of a pitcher than he is a positional player. Ball is rather athletic and I would really wish the Brewers would go down this route of trying more athletic pitchers than what they have been selecting.
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