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I like our young starting pitching.......................BUT


rickh150

I like our young pitching...........................BUT:

 

1. Can we really count on any of them to fill the #2 and #3 spots in a playoff team's rotation?

2. Have any of them put up 2011 Greinke or Marcum numbers, even in their brief stints, to answer question #1.

3. I see Rogers and Estrada as middle relief upgrades. Estrada loses it in the 5th or definitely the 6th, and Rogers has too much baggage to pull 200 innings and not get hurt.

4. Do we remember what are staff was like without a Greinke, Marcum, Sutton or Sabathia on our staff? Proven pitching has gotten us to the playoffs

 

Short-term, the Brewers staff has been impressive the last month or so. Long-term, I tend not to believe...yet. I've just noticed more and more people on this site content with our pitching for next year because what they have been seeing this past month or so.

 

There are many who could be counted on to fill our #4 and #5 spots. Yes, they should be counted on for that. Yet, there are none who should be counted on to pitch 200 innings in the #2 or #3 spots next season. In a few years, I might like the idea of an all-Brewers, home-grown staff. However, with our offense producing like it has these past six or seven years, we have to strike (pardon the pun) this off-season. One of a Hellickson, Masterson, Shields, Felix (pipe dream) and a FA (Jackson ?) are needed to get to the playoffs and then COMPETE in the playoffs next year and 2014.

 

For all who are penciling Rogers as our #2 and Fiers as our #3, I beg to differ.

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"Proven pitching has got us to the playoffs."

 

You are too focused on us here. Take a look at Oakland. How much "proven pitching" did they have entering this season. What worked one year or another, isn't necessarily the right formula every year. Those teams lacked young major league pitching. This one doesn't. This Brewer team was 10 games under .500 with Greinke. They are 8 games over since he left.

 

Estrada and Fiers both have WHIPS under 1.2 in nearly 20 starts. They have experienced success at this level. You are completely forgetting Narveson who was 23-17 in 2010 and 2011, and who's already throwing and expected to be 100% in spring. Furthermore, they don't just have Rogers to fill a 5th spot. They have 4 or 5 guys behind him, Peralta, Thornburg, Burgos, Hellweg, Nelson, etc.

 

The great thing about a potential staff for next year is that only one guy will make enough that he can't be replaced if he struggles and that's the guy least likely to, Gallardo.

 

Finally you brought up Sabathia. Sabathia arrived in July. That team was in contention even after losing Gallardo on the first of May. The more young arms that continue to show promise between now and next July, the more ammunition you have to make a move for a veteran next July.

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Marcum was about as much of an albatross as a playoff starter as you'll ever see last year.

 

A veteran presence is overrated. I'd rather have a good pitcher than a veteran one. Not that Marcum is a bad pitcher, and not that he would bomb in the playoffs again, I just think that too much is made of having veteran starters in the playoffs. I doubt there's much correlation between experience and success as far as playoff starters go.

 

I would be okay with Marcum on a one year deal too, just not for the qualifying $13M offer -- I'd be okay with more like 1/$7M or $8M.

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Marcum looks more like Suppan everytime he pitches. His stuff is just getting to the point that he has to be perfect.

 

Just so I'm not being misunderstood.....I'm not saying Marcum has performed like Suppan only that he looks to be trending in that direction with his stuff.

 

I'll take my chances with one of our young arms before I'm paying him even 7 million.

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Marcum looks more like Suppan everytime he pitches. His stuff is just getting to the point that he has to be perfect.

 

Just so I'm not being misunderstood.....I'm not saying Marcum has performed like Suppan only that he looks to be trending in that direction with his stuff.

 

I'll take my chances with one of our young arms before I'm paying him even 7 million.

 

Marcum's stuff was fine all season until he got hurt. It was fine all last year until the very end of the season. The reason you don't resign Marcum is because he's too much of a health risk.

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I actually wouldn't mind a rotation of Gallaro, Fiers, Estrada, Rogers, and Peralta (screw lefties! they are weird and freakish) but I also wouldn't complain if the Brewer went and signed a guy via free agency as long as the deal was short term or front loaded. But it always seems like the Brewers have to add on an extra year to get anyone to sign with them.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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The pool of free agent starting pitchers this offseason is about as deep as that pool ever gets. There are at least a dozen guys who the Brewers would not be insane to sign for the right deal. Estrada and Rogers both have inside tracks on the rotation and you'd have to think that Fiers already has a spot to lose. They probably will end up signing at least one FA SP, maybe two, and have Peralta and Thornburg go back to AAA.
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
The pool of free agent starting pitchers this offseason is about as deep as that pool ever gets. There are at least a dozen guys who the Brewers would not be insane to sign for the right deal. Estrada and Rogers both have inside tracks on the rotation and you'd have to think that Fiers already has a spot to lose. They probably will end up signing at least one FA SP, maybe two, and have Peralta and Thornburg go back to AAA.

I agree with this. Here's a list of some guys (I'm not saying all of them are that good - just listing who's available). I've only listed guys who I think would have a chance in our rotation. I included guys who I think the team has a good chance of not picking up their option. And I didn't include anyone who's option was likely to be picked up. Some players are, no doubt, not realistic. But I included everyone.

 

I also would advocate adding a reclamation project - a guy we can get for cheap who is looking for a chance (example: someone like Erik Bedard).

 

Joe Blanton (32)

Ryan Dempster (36)

Zack Greinke (28)

Jeremy Guthrie (34)

Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout

Edwin Jackson (29)

Hiroki Kuroda (38)

Colby Lewis (33)

Francisco Liriano (29)

Kyle Lohse (34)

Shaun Marcum (31)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)

Brandon McCarthy (29)

Roy Oswalt (35)

Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout

Anibal Sanchez (29)

Jonathan Sanchez (30)

Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Joe Saunders (32)

Carlos Villanueva (29)

Carlos Zambrano (32)

 

I'd seriously consider adding guys like Thornburg and Peralta and Rogers to the bullpen - if they don't make the rotation.

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I would like to see Peralta as one of the top 5 guys. Considering everything he has done in the minors and his stuff, I think he just had a bad first couple months this year. I definitely don't want to see him in the pen.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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The pool of free agent starting pitchers this offseason is about as deep as that pool ever gets. There are at least a dozen guys who the Brewers would not be insane to sign for the right deal. Estrada and Rogers both have inside tracks on the rotation and you'd have to think that Fiers already has a spot to lose. They probably will end up signing at least one FA SP, maybe two, and have Peralta and Thornburg go back to AAA.[/quote}

 

No, insanity would be signing a guy who is the equivalent to say Wolf several years ago to a multi year deal when you have a half dozen young arms either ready or close to the big leagues. This team invested in college arms in the draft for a reason. Guys like Wolf, and before him Suppan were needed because they didn't have any young arms coming up. Now they do.

 

Now if a bargain presents itself for a guy with some versatility to also relieve, fine or if somehow they can get a true top of the rotation guy for a reasonable price, great. But I'd stay away from the rest.

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I'd seriously consider adding guys like Thornburg and Peralta and Rogers to the bullpen - if they don't make the rotation.

 

They will have to have Rogers on the 25 man or lose him, so the pen is the default if he doesn't do well in the spring.

 

The Brewers will want to keep at least one of the young guys who doesn't make the MLB starting staff in AAA stretched out as the injury replacement.

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Rogers almost has to end up in the bullpen at some point next year. He only threw 134 innings this year and that was a career high. I don't see how he can start for a full season, unless he's the #5 and they skip him whenever possible.
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Rogers almost has to end up in the bullpen at some point next year. He only threw 134 innings this year and that was a career high. I don't see how he can start for a full season, unless he's the #5 and they skip him whenever possible.

 

 

You forget next season Rogers will be 27 which is a physical peak age. He went from 44 last year to 134 this year. I think he'd be good to go from 134 to 175 or 180. Look at Fiers. He's also 27, and he threw 126 last year and he's now at 164 with no plans to shut him down certainly at least until they are officially eliminated.

 

The rules for innings generally apply to younger guys. They took it relatively easy on Rogers because he's missed a lot of time in his career, but I think if he is healthy and effective, that he'll make the entire season. All they'd have to do is to skip a couple starts in April when there are off days, and he'd be fine assuming he stays effective and healthy.

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No, insanity would be signing a guy who is the equivalent to say Wolf several years ago to a multi year deal when you have a half dozen young arms either ready or close to the big leagues.

 

While what you mean by "the equivalent of Wolf" is debatable, I think you missed my point. If the Randy Wolf of 2009 were hitting free agency this offseason, I don't think there's much of a chance that he'd get the deal the Brewers gave him. I'm not saying sign a guy to sign a guy, but the Brewers should be interested in exploiting the rare opportunity of getting value out of a deep free agent pitching class.

 

The offense is set. If you can get a decent deal on a free agent starter that fits in the budget, they would be crazy not to consider it.

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The offense is set. If you can get a decent deal on a free agent starter that fits in the budget, they would be crazy not to consider it.

 

At some point isn't that spending money just to spend money though? Maybe use that money to extend someone like Hart or Weeks. Maybe just don't spend it and use it in the future when we don't have so many internal options. right now it just seems like we have so many starting pitching options that it is likely enough will pan out to put up a representable rotation. IF we can find a top tier guy maybe go for it. Other than that I really don't think a solid #3 is worth the money we would have to pay in FA. If we are going to spend money to get to a certain level of spending then I think spending more on short term deals with good proven relievers makes more sense. I'd rather slightly overpay for something we don't have than get a good deal on something we have a lot of. We have enough options that the starting pitching should be fine. We don't have quality relief.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.
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At some point isn't that spending money just to spend money though?

 

If you're getting value on a starting pitcher capable of improving your rotation, no I don't think that's spending money to spend money as long as the Brewers can afford to spend it, especially when the pitching pool is rarely this deep. Any decision obviously has to have a baseball side and a financial side to it.

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I like our young pitching...........................BUT:

 

1. Can we really count on any of them to fill the #2 and #3 spots in a playoff team's rotation?

2. Have any of them put up 2011 Greinke or Marcum numbers, even in their brief stints, to answer question #1.

3. I see Rogers and Estrada as middle relief upgrades. Estrada loses it in the 5th or definitely the 6th, and Rogers has too much baggage to pull 200 innings and not get hurt.

4. Do we remember what are staff was like without a Greinke, Marcum, Sutton or Sabathia on our staff? Proven pitching has gotten us to the playoffs

 

Short-term, the Brewers staff has been impressive the last month or so. Long-term, I tend not to believe...yet. I've just noticed more and more people on this site content with our pitching for next year because what they have been seeing this past month or so.

 

There are many who could be counted on to fill our #4 and #5 spots. Yes, they should be counted on for that. Yet, there are none who should be counted on to pitch 200 innings in the #2 or #3 spots next season. In a few years, I might like the idea of an all-Brewers, home-grown staff. However, with our offense producing like it has these past six or seven years, we have to strike (pardon the pun) this off-season. One of a Hellickson, Masterson, Shields, Felix (pipe dream) and a FA (Jackson ?) are needed to get to the playoffs and then COMPETE in the playoffs next year and 2014.

 

For all who are penciling Rogers as our #2 and Fiers as our #3, I beg to differ.

 

 

First of all, how you become a "proven pitcher?" By PITCHING. I fail to see why Rogers can't become a good pitcher for us, what Fiers has shown that suggests he can't become a good pitcher for us, why you leave Peralta off the list, or Thornburg, or Nelson, Jungman, Burgos(moving forward, not to start the year necessarily, but the guys who are next in line.

 

And all I hear is how we've gutted our farm system for this guy or that guy and that's stopped us from developing their own starting pitching, but you suggest trading for a guy like Hellickson, a guy with 4 years of service time left I believe who's a very-very good pitcher on a contender in the AL East, or Shields who has a couple years left, much less Felix who you're right, is a pipe dream. He's going to cost a LOT more than Greinke, but if you put so little stock into our starting pitching, the strength of our farm system and our young guys, then how could we possibly pull off a trade for...well...really any of them?

 

There are two pitchers I see being worth pursuing, either Edwin Jackson if he is once again undervalued on the Free Agent Market, and to me it's baffling how he's bounced around from team to team and then signed a 1 year deal for 11 million dollars. If he's available for 3 years and 33 million, I'd sure as hell pay for 200 innings a year at a 4.00-ish ERA in a power pitcher.

 

The other of course being...Grienke who I haven't given up on. I really don't see a lot of teams that are going to be bidding on him, or at least be willing bid enough to price him out of our market. Remember, teams are building their teams with that luxury tax in the back of their mind.

 

 

As for Marcum, I hated that deal, last year he was obviously productive, but what does he really do for us? I hate soft tossers like him in the post-season just as a general rule as hitters tend to chase less and hit guys who nibble as they're more focused and more zoned in. That's an opinion that isn't backed by any quantifiable stat, just a personal preference.

 

Plus, I don't know any good pitcher on the market with more glaring-screaming alarms than Marcum. Terrible mechanics. Average FB-86.6 MPH, TJ surgery already, constant elbow tightness. Lucky for us last year it was before the season started, this year it was during the season. And right now, he's the worst pitcher we're throwing out there. Obviously I don't believe he would be over a full season when healthy, but that was a deal that set the franchise back significantly, and one that I think should be rectified. If he doesn't accept a 1 year 8 million dollar deal, I'd move on.

 

Not to mention, while our offense has been great, you're starting to get into that range where injuries are cropping up more and more. Aram has been healthy, but it should be a concern, Hart's had three injuries in the last two years, Braun's always got something, and Weeks has been healthier, but his past isn't exactly injury free. So we're in a stretch where everyone's been healthy and we've been on fire on offense. That's not including seasons that may be outliers in Lucroy's BA(though I think he's very good), Gomez who I believe is more than capable of repeating this past season and even improving, but this has been much better than in the past, and Maldonado who's never really shown this type of offense. We've gotten more production out of C than anyone likely would have projected. Just off the top of my head, about 15 or so HR's, somewhere around a .300 offense and what, 70-ish RBI's?

 

So the only way I think hitting the FA market is worth it and spending a lot of money is if A-Greinke looks at how we finished, looks at our young pitching and we're competitive in our offer and he comes back, B-Jackson is on the market and still a good value or C-Either Lee or Haren is dumped because of the Hamels deal or because LAA signs Grienke and they don't want to pick up Haren's 15.5 million dollar option.

 

 

I also think it's foolish to write Rogers off after everything he's come back from, nor do I think anyone expects 200 innings from him. But he's out there still throwing 98 MPH and has shown flashes of great secondary stuff, Peralta obviously has great stuff and you could say the exact same things about him. Fiers has been outstanding. Not sure how you're not seeing a potential #3 in him next year(also not sure where Rogers being a legit #2 has come from).

And you still have Narveson who's been throwing already, Estrada, Thornburg and then obviously Gallardo.

 

Why wouldn't we be excited about our starting pitching going into next year? We're developing power arms with legit putout secondary pitches, and we have a couple more that are within a year away potentially we haven't even seen.

 

 

We FINALLY have the makings of is largely a homegrown rotation and now we're saying, "but we don't have any of these future HOF'ers or Cy Young winners?" Yeah, those guys take time to develop and are pretty hard to come by.

 

Again, I'm still holding out hope Greinke can be re-signed after he hits the market, but if not, I think we've got a really nice foundation. And as I said, I'm not going to throw Rogers out the door just simply because of his injury history. If a guy can work through all that and come back, hell, you have to give him credit for everything he's done and say he's earned a spot in the rotation.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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Here's the way I see it:

 

Estrada, Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta are going to cost us about $500,000 each next year.

 

They have all been pretty fantastic and deserving of rotation spots, albeit small sample size with Peralta and Rogers. So if you're going to replace them at potentially 20 to 25 times the cost, it had better be for someone who is a pretty guaranteed upgrade. There won't be a Randy Wolf type signing this offseason.

 

And on Greinke, which is a change of my previous stance, I disagree on bringing him back. I don't think that the $23M a year that he will probably cost is going to produce a good return on investment. I would rather not even get involved. I would rather look at what we need to do internally. I even would be okay with going with a $70M payroll and keeping the extra revenue in the coffers for future use.

 

There is one free agent that I would be willing to spend big money on in the offseason -- Josh Hamilton. I can't imagine any other signing making us more of an instant contender than him.

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How has Peralta earned a spot? By walking a ton of guys?

 

Counting on Rogers to stay healthy for an entire season is a heartbreak waiting to happen.

 

The FA pitching pool is really deep, the Brewers have a ton of money to spend, and they have no place else to spend it. I'd rather sign Greinke to $23m a year than 4 relievers to $6m a year contracts.

 

There is no saving revenue for future use. If there was the Brewers would have a $150m payroll right now.

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