Packers 2022 Discussion Thread

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, UpandIn said:

The cap ain't tightening any more than it did this past off-season. And we saw how they pushed ~75M down the road. 

With the cap going up, they'll be able to keep their key FAs...if they want to. But they've pretty much got to decide this off-season if they're keeping Rodgers for another TWO years or they have to move him this off-season. The '23 option guarantees the '25 salary. 

Sure the cap is going up...but so our our salary hits and numbers of FAs:

• Adrian Amos, Dean Lowry, Randall Cobb, Mason Crosby, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Allen Lazard, Jarren Reed, Elgton Jenkins, Yosh Nijman, Keisean Nixon,  Johnathan Ford, Krys Barnes (plus less important: Abram, Watkins, Leavitt, Wilson) are all FAs.
• Aaron Jones has a cap hit of $20M (looks like $15M savings if cut), Savage has a cap hit of $7.9M (all base salary, so 100% possible savings there) 

For current projections, we are $1.6M over

So for devil's advocate, let's cut Savage and Jones for the cap.  So we would have around $21M in space (rough calculations - but should be ballpark correct).  

Certainly there are other things that could be done to reduce other cap hits - Bakh at $29M, Clark at $24M, Jaire at $20M.

But you still need to fill:

• Starting RB (who is our best playmaker)
• Two starting safety positions (zero depth)
• Kicker
• Both of our best TEs (with zero depth)
• Starting RT (Tom could step in here, but Yosh has been very valuable the last two years)
• Starting WR (Lazard hasn't been great and injured often, but Rodger's comfort zone.
• WR depth - Cobb has actually been good when not injured. 
• Starting G - Depth there, but Jenkins was one of the best before being injured
• Two Starting DEs - Lowry probably won't be back. Reed has been good. Have some depth here, but not for 2 starters.
• And sign our draft picks

in that $21M cap space.  Even trying to tread water and keep the talent level of this current team is going to be a challenge.  Upgrading seems impossible.

 

[MrTPlush]

Hill was released because he was a locker room cancer according to MLF.

[Sixtolezcano]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

From a poster who wanted to cut Watson this past week, there are a WHOLE lot of flaws here. 

1-Aaron Jones has never been an All-Pro, he's been a 1X Pro-Bowl RB. Also nobody WANTS to replace Aaron Jones next year. He's obviously our best offensive player. But you gonna pay him like a #1 WRer? A 28 year old RB who has a cap hit over 20M next year, what do YOU propose they do? Another extension?
2-You can just say my name. And I was hardly the only one who thought Hill would take over Jones role next year, again given...it's very unlikely Jones is brought back with a 20+M cap hit.
https://www.packers.com/video/aj-dillon-on-kylin-hill-he-s-like-a-young-aaron-jones
3-How would he have been a 1st year RB? He's literally playing on the team THIS year and you know he got hurt LAST year. That's 3 years. So a 3rd year RB. 
4-Obviously I didn't know he was being a dick. Just that Aaron Jones is likely gone and Kylin Hill is a very good runner and we needed someone to replace him.
5-Even if he WAS a 1st year player...we're still most likely going to replace Aaron Jones with a 1st year player next year unless they go deeper into the future and extend Jones for 2-3 more years. Generally not a good idea for RBs. 

1. I suggested that they trade Watson, not cut him. He had a very good game, but he did drop 2 or 3 passes, as well. One game does not make him great or even a good WR. He’ll need to build on that game and get some consistency with his hands. He looked like a possible bust before Sunday and I wasn’t the only Packer fan with that opinion.

2. you can renegotiate  Jones’s contract and move that cap hit out several more years, which is now commonly done with many NFL teams.

3. If there were more than one poster that thought Hill would replace Jones in 2023, why would you think that I was specifically referring to you? I would never call anyone out like that, especially something as unimportant as sports

4. You’re right Jones was a pro- bowler and not an all-pro. I can admit to my mistake, BTW, Hill was drafted in 2021 his rookie year and this would be his second year on the team. At the beginning of this year he had 1 year of experience.

5. If Jones is not on the team next year he most likely will be replaced by A.J. Dillon or maybe a 2023 draft pick.

6. Let there be peace.

 

[HarryDoyle]

Rodgers was picked up off waivers by Houston. I thought the Jacksonville would take a flyer on him to reunite him with Lawrence from their college days. Anyway, good luck to the Texans.

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

in that $21M cap space.  Even trying to tread water and keep the talent level of this current team is going to be a challenge.  Upgrading seems impossible.

Well, we were headed into last year about 40M over the salary cap, so coming to a figure on how much cap space we've got before the cap is even set...

[LouisEly]

They exercised Savage's 5th year option so that is fully guaranteed. 

More likely, they extend Clark as he already has two void years on his deal, turn his salary + roster bonus into signing bonus.  Save about $9M.  Add two void years on Bakh's deal and turn his salary + roster bonus into a signing bonus.  Save another $9M.  Extend Jones two years, turn his salary + roster bonus into signing bonus, save another $9M.  Extending Gary can save another $7M.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

1. I suggested that they trade Watson, not cut him. He had a very good game, but he did drop 2 or 3 passes, as well. One game does not make him great or even a good WR. He’ll need to build on that game and get some consistency with his hands. He looked like a possible bust before Sunday and I wasn’t the only Packer fan with that opinion.

I'd argue that no player could possibly look like a bust 8 games into their rookie year ... especially a guy who has missed a bunch of time with multiple injuries. I think it's prudent to have a bit more patience with these guys before breaking out the B word, personally. I agree that Watson has plenty to work on, but last week was possibly a pretty good preview of what he could be if things click. I personally don't think smarts or ability is going to be his issue. Staying on the field is. 

[homer]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd argue that no player could possibly look like a bust 8 games into their rookie year ... especially a guy who has missed a bunch of time with multiple injuries. I think it's prudent to have a bit more patience with these guys before breaking out the B word, personally. I agree that Watson has plenty to work on, but last week was possibly a pretty good preview of what he could be if things click. I personally don't think smarts or ability is going to be his issue. Staying on the field is. 

yeah no kidding. the guy has barely been on the field. 

[UpandIn]

17 hours ago, LouisEly said:

They exercised Savage's 5th year option so that is fully guaranteed. 

More likely, they extend Clark as he already has two void years on his deal, turn his salary + roster bonus into signing bonus.  Save about $9M.  Add two void years on Bakh's deal and turn his salary + roster bonus into a signing bonus.  Save another $9M.  Extend Jones two years, turn his salary + roster bonus into signing bonus, save another $9M.  Extending Gary can save another $7M.

They could also trade Savage as it's all base salary, no cap hit. As for depth, it appears as Ford is providing quite a bit right now.

Amos has an 8M cap hit, they'd need to extend him before the league year starts and the 6M wouldn't accelerate on next years cap.

Jones will be interesting. Cutting him creates 11M cap space, extending him can create cap space. He looks as good this year as he has. RB is also a position that you can find really valuable players as FAs or late in the draft. 

Like I said, the final 7 games is going to answer a LOT of questions, particularly with the young players. Bakh is a candidate to take a pay cut IMO. He can cut his base salary next year. But that's kinda tough to figure out right now. If he finishes out the season playing regularly and not missing any more time...while playing at the level he's been playing at, then a pay cut seems unlikely. 

Yosh is still an ERFA. 


Gary is going to be really interesting. I could see an extension. 5/125 would be in the range, but given the injury, I'd guess the SB and GTD money would be significantly lower that could have a large roster bonus in '24?

I don't know what they will do...or really have an opinion on what they should do right now, but if they want to think the OL/Skill positions will bounce back and they can compete next year, the salary cap won't stop them from being a competitive team.

[LouisEly]

35 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Yosh is still an ERFA.

Spotrac has Yosh as an unrestricted free agent.

[UpandIn]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Spotrac has Yosh as an unrestricted free agent.

They had him as one last year as well, but he's still going to be at 3 seasons, so he's still a RFA. 

2019-PS until December-Inactive for 3 games and then on IR. 5 Games
You need 6 for it to count as a fully accrued year. 
2020-1st
2021-2nd
2022-3rd

They'll need to put a tender on him, so he'll be a RFA, not an ERFA like I said, but still, cheap enough and a no-brainer to bring back. 

[bjkrautk]

Last night's loss was disappointing...but I'm genuinely curious how many weeks go by before we talk about sitting Rodgers so the organization can make a determination on Jordan Love's option year.  Father Time is still undefeated....and 2022 Aaron is showing a resemblance to the 2019 version, the one which prompted the organization to pull the trigger on #10.

 

With 7 losses, and still games to play against Philadelphia (8-1), Minnesota (8-1), and Miami (7-3)....this team is on the outside looking in.  If they lose to Philly after the mini-bye - and I still hope that doesn't happen - it's a conversation which needs to start.

[GAME05]

Unless Rodgers whispers to Gute that he'll be retiring after this year I don't see any reason to give Love any time. Just no point in it. However Rodgers plays he's going to be the starter and you're not going to pay him $50M and pick up an expensive 5th year option on Love also. Plus it's more than just Love who needs to see work, but all the young WRs who need time working with Rodgers, too.

[HarryDoyle]

Crazy ending to the Jets-Pats game.

[HarryDoyle]

It's week 11 and the Detroit Lions are ahead of us in the standings.

[yourout]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

It's week 11 and the Detroit Lions are ahead of us in the standings.

And they are the more talented team.

[UpandIn]

On 11/18/2022 at 4:41 PM, GAME05 said:

Unless Rodgers whispers to Gute that he'll be retiring after this year I don't see any reason to give Love any time. Just no point in it. However Rodgers plays he's going to be the starter and you're not going to pay him $50M and pick up an expensive 5th year option on Love also. Plus it's more than just Love who needs to see work, but all the young WRs who need time working with Rodgers, too.

I think there's a lot of value to giving Love some playing time this year. You have to have SOME idea what he looks like with this group before you make a decision next year in the draft. Given ALL the possible directions this team could go...one of them is moving on from Rodgers and trying to determine who their next QB is. 

NOW you start hearing scouts talking about how the class after this year is looking good at QB(I have no idea, but when I see a North Carolina QB atop the list, I'm a little skeptical). 

I think the best for the Packers chances to win in '23 would be to get Rodgers more reps with Watson and Toure right now and then hopefully Doubs at some point. But Rodgers may not be back. 

 

 

[UpandIn]

On 11/18/2022 at 1:08 PM, bjkrautk said:

Last night's loss was disappointing...but I'm genuinely curious how many weeks go by before we talk about sitting Rodgers so the organization can make a determination on Jordan Love's option year.  Father Time is still undefeated....and 2022 Aaron is showing a resemblance to the 2019 version, the one which prompted the organization to pull the trigger on #10.

 

With 7 losses, and still games to play against Philadelphia (8-1), Minnesota (8-1), and Miami (7-3)....this team is on the outside looking in.  If they lose to Philly after the mini-bye - and I still hope that doesn't happen - it's a conversation which needs to start.

This is a team without Gary, Stokes, Campbell hasn't been playing, Doubs, a whole lot of young players who are VERY talented, but not the type of players we can rely on with all the other injuries to suddenly get it together down the stretch and go on a run like they have in the past. 

They may technically still control their own destiny, but this team is just not good enough. 

I don't think the problems are that huge and I think the nature of the NFL allows for quick turnarounds, but I'm chalking this season as a lost season. 

Honestly, one Gary suffered that non-contact injury, that was it. We were one of the best teams at pressuring the QB this year. You take a guy like Gary out of your front 7, it's almost like taking out a guy like Adams from your WRer core. 

 

Incidentally, Adams is not happy in LV and there are rumors the Raiders may look to move off Carr and Adams next year and go for a full rebuild. How funny would it be to turn around and re-aquire Adams?

It's obviously a ridiculous scenario, but one that's been seriously suggested. Given the low price(Salary cap wise) and the fact that you could make Watson/Doubs/Toure or whomever else you pick up down...that'd be fun. 

To be clear, I don't think it's going to happen...but if the Raiders are rebuilding, I also think a top 10-14 pick would be MORE than enough. 

 

[CheezWizHed]

A #10-14 first round pick is more than we got for Adams (#22+#53) and now he is a year older.  I wouldn't do this.  Not sure how that would work on our cap anyway unless Rodgers suddenly reduced his base salary to do it.

[JosephC]

On 11/17/2022 at 8:00 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd argue that no player could possibly look like a bust 8 games into their rookie year 

In 1995 the Packers drafted an offensive guard out of Mississippi named Jeff Miller.  When Ron Wolf had his retirement press conference, he was asked what the worst draft pick he ever made was.  He immediately said Jeff Miller and said it took him one practice to know that he had made a mistake.

[UpandIn]

On 11/23/2022 at 10:28 AM, CheezWizHed said:

A #10-14 first round pick is more than we got for Adams (#22+#53) and now he is a year older.  I wouldn't do this.  Not sure how that would work on our cap anyway unless Rodgers suddenly reduced his base salary to do it.

His cap hit would be no problem. I think it'd be like 6M next year and then it'd jump up to 16M or so, but not guaranteed...and you're right, that's a big overpay. It'd have to be a 2nd+.

It definitely wouldn't make sense to turn around and trade a top ~15 pick for him. Though...again, you would be getting him without having to pay the big signing bonus and you'd have a fraction of the cap hit you would otherwise. 

Rodgers also can't take less money next year. The only thing I think he can do is change the roster bonuses so that they don't handcuff the Packers down the road. 

It's also WILDLY unlikely and stems from one of those bad articles I get on my phone that always have these unlikely transactions. 

[CheezWizHed]

All Rodgers has to do is sign an amendement to his contract that reduces his yearly salaries.  Now, I really doubt he would do that... but if he really wants the team to win, it surely would help.

[HarryDoyle]

 

[UpandIn]

19 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

All Rodgers has to do is sign an amendement to his contract that reduces his yearly salaries.  Now, I really doubt he would do that... but if he really wants the team to win, it surely would help.

His base salary next year is 1.165M, 2.25 in '24. 

He really can't cut his cap hit next year. He's still got a lot of money from his last contract that's driving his cap hit and his signing bonus on this new contract. 

They could add another void year, but that's about the only way to cut Rodgers cap hit for next year or the following year. 

 

[UpandIn]

13 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

 

Well, that's the season. What are we gonna do without Sean Rhyan!

The 3rd round strikes again. Just use this years 3rd to trade up into the 2nd or to add a couple 4th round picks again. 

I don't even know what the problem with him is. I know he was getting abused by Wyatt's quickness at family night, but he also looked like he was a big, physical run blocker who could move people. And instead, he hasn't even been able to crack this lineup when Royce Newman was leaking like the Exxon Valdez...and I don't think it was because he wasn't strong enough.