2022 Brewers Offense

[BruisedCrew]

4 hours ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

Last season people were legitimately arguing that Adames could be an MVP candidate if he hadn't been traded for mid-season, and now the argument is we don't have *any* guys who are top 10 at their position?

How is Adames both an MVP level talent, and not a top 10 shortstop?  I don't care about fantasy baseball, and I'm pretty sure Stearns doesn't either.  I hope he cares about getting wins on the actual field.  

I am only using fantasy rankings and projections to illustrate a point because they are presumably objective analyses of how players stack up against each other.

I also think they are relevant because we are talking about offense and most fantasy leagues only consider offense.

The talk about Adames as an MVP candidate was kind of ridiculous and was based on the Brewers as a team taking off after he joined. 
 

But, look at it this way. Ignoring salary considerations and focusing on the short term, how many of these SS would you rather have in your everyday lineup over Adames:

Trea Turner, Tatis (when healthy),  Bo Bichette, Bogaerts, Tim Anderson, Story (now playing 2B), Lindor, Seager, Wander Franco, Correa, Baez, Witt (now playing 3B).

All of these players were rated higher than Adames by Fantasy Pros.

Maybe Adames is actually a better offensive player than several of these players and is a top 10 MLB hitting SS. But the point would remain that, if Adames is the Brewers best offensive player, that isn’t real good for a championship contending team.

 

 

 

 

[Dragonbait]

21 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

if Adames is the Brewers best offensive player, that isn’t real good for a championship contending team.

Or it means he has had a career year and is carrying the team, and it would be a great thing for a championship seeking team.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm seeing 3 basic arguments made here:

1. This offense is terrible.

2. This offense could be good if some guys hit better.

3. This offense isn't that bad because some teams are worse.

 

Nothing too inspiring here.

[BruisedCrew]

20 minutes ago, Dragonbait said:

Or it means he has had a career year and is carrying the team, and it would be a great thing for a championship seeking team.

I think one of the question marks for the Brewers offense is whether Adames had a career 3 months last year and will not be able to carry an offense for an extended period.
 

Hopefully his time with the Brewers last year is a sign of a relatively young player who is coming into his own in a new environment.

[DuWayne Steurer]

44 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Trea Turner, Tatis (when healthy),  Bo Bichette, Bogaerts, Tim Anderson, Story (now playing 2B), Lindor, Seager, Wander Franco, Correa, Baez, Witt (now playing 3B).

so Adames isn't a top 10 shortstop in fantasy rankings, when you put a 2B and a 3B (who's got 28 mlb at bats) into the group, and make qualifiers for Turner, who's played more than 122 games 2 times in 8 seasons.

I don't think you'll find more than a handful of people who won't agree that the offense isn't struggling right now, but when you have to shift around the goal posts *this much* to make a point, it's getting almost silly.  

As has been pointed out many many times, by many people, the Brewers were 6th in MLB last year in runs scored after they acquired Adames.  People are free to digest that however they want.  Many seem to think the Brewers need a "superstar" bat.  The Braves went out and got Soler, Rosario, etc, and went all the way to the World Series.  If the guys they have hit, they'll be ok when the pitching performs. 

If not, they won't.  It's simple.  

[BruisedCrew]

38 minutes ago, RoCoBrewfan said:

so Adames isn't a top 10 shortstop in fantasy rankings, when you put a 2B and a 3B (who's got 28 mlb at bats) into the group, and make qualifiers for Turner, who's played more than 122 games 2 times in 8 seasons.

I don't think you'll find more than a handful of people who won't agree that the offense isn't struggling right now, but when you have to shift around the goal posts *this much* to make a point, it's getting almost silly.  

As has been pointed out many many times, by many people, the Brewers were 6th in MLB last year in runs scored after they acquired Adames.  People are free to digest that however they want.  Many seem to think the Brewers need a "superstar" bat.  The Braves went out and got Soler, Rosario, etc, and went all the way to the World Series.  If the guys they have hit, they'll be ok when the pitching performs. 

If not, they won't.  It's simple.  

I’m not shifting the goalposts.
 

Whether  Adames is number 6, or 8, or 10, or 12 offensively among MLB SS is beside the real point. My use of the fantasy rankings to evaluate the Brewers offense as a whole (not just Adames) was an attempt to put some objective measure on the subject that was completely removed from the first week of the season (where the Brewers offense has been undeniably bad).

I don’t think the Brewers need a “superstar” bat, but I think they need more above average bats than they have. The Braves last year added bats to a lineup that already had Freeman and Albies (who are among the very best at their positions) and Riley, who had as good a year as Adames offensively last year. They had a potent offense even after losing Acuna and made the moves to pick up the slack after he got hurt.  
 

I obviously can’t disagree with the statement that the team will be OK if the guys they have hit when the pitching performs. But the question is whether the Brewers have enough guys who can realistically be expected to hit at the level needed to produce even a top half of the league offense.

As I described in an earlier post in this thread, I digested the fact that the Brewers were tied for 7th in MLB in runs scored after the Adames trade by mixing it in with how they performed for the first two months of the season, September, and the playoffs instead of just their best 3 months. And the net result was much more of an average offense than one that matches up well with the best teams in the league.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 4/13/2022 at 1:53 PM, SeaBass said:

Cutch vs. LHP

2018: .363 OBP & .819 OPS
2019: .429 OBP & .840 OPS
2020: .394 OBP & .944 OPS
2021: .405 OBP & 1.027 OPS

1st in batting order at bats per season

2018: 174 of a possible 569
2019: 219 of a possible 219
2020: 213 of a possible 217
2021: 161 of a possible 482

3 of the last 4 years he's had more at bats from the lead off spot than any other position in the batting order. That's total, not just against LHP.

I'll admit I didn't realize he's spent so much time leading off. I'll stand by what I said though. On this team as currently constructed I don't think that's a good spot for him.

[JackNicholson1974]

I’m pretty confident saying this team’s offense isn’t good. Further, that is isn’t good enough to win multiple playoff series.  That it is good enough to make the playoffs. Maybe even win the division. That it isn’t bottom 10.  That by my estimation it is about 7th in the NL.  
 

 NL teams offense better than Milwaukee in no particular order;

Atlanta, NYM, Philly, STL, Dodgers, Padres.

only 6 teams make playoffs so the pitchers have to stop walking so many batters - especially the starters - to make up the difference.

last nights lineup on paper was one of the worst I can remember in the past 5+ years.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, JackNicholson1974 said:

I’m pretty confident saying this team’s offense isn’t good. Further, that is isn’t good enough to win multiple playoff series.  That it is good enough to make the playoffs. Maybe even win the division. That it isn’t bottom 10.  That by my estimation it is about 7th in the NL.  
 

 NL teams offense better than Milwaukee in no particular order;

Atlanta, NYM, Philly, STL, Dodgers, Padres.

only 6 teams make playoffs so the pitchers have to stop walking so many batters - especially the starters - to make up the difference.

last nights lineup on paper was one of the worst I can remember in the past 5+ years.

Yeah. I think everyone here pretty much agrees that, unless there is marked internal improvement (i.e., Yelich, Hiura), Stearns is going to have to add in-season to make our offense World Series-caliber to match our pitching. I think the time may be ripe to sacrifice some of our improved farm talent to achieve this. Obviously, Conforto would be a much welcome addition, too.

[SeaBass]

19 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'll admit I didn't realize he's spent so much time leading off. I'll stand by what I said though. On this team as currently constructed I don't think that's a good spot for him.

You are absolutely entitled to your opinion, but his stats against LHP are right there in my post and MLB managers for 3 different teams during those seasons liked him leading off prior to him joining Milwaukee. I don't really care either way how Counsell chooses to use him but it feels like there's a logical basis for his current preference. That's the only point I'm trying to make.

[Robocaller]

On 4/16/2022 at 2:52 PM, BruisedCrew said:

I am only using fantasy rankings and projections to illustrate a point because they are presumably objective analyses of how players stack up against each other.

they are rankings for fantasy stats, not real world value.

[Eye Black]

Brewers offense after 10 games in 2021:

Brewers offense after 10 games in 2022:

Compared to a year ago the strike out rate is improved after 10 games, but the hitting for power has been reduced. 

[brewers888]

22 hours ago, JackNicholson1974 said:

I’m pretty confident saying this team’s offense isn’t good. Further, that is isn’t good enough to win multiple playoff series.  That it is good enough to make the playoffs. Maybe even win the division. That it isn’t bottom 10.  That by my estimation it is about 7th in the NL.  
 

 NL teams offense better than Milwaukee in no particular order;

Atlanta, NYM, Philly, STL, Dodgers, Padres.

only 6 teams make playoffs so the pitchers have to stop walking so many batters - especially the starters - to make up the difference.

last nights lineup on paper was one of the worst I can remember in the past 5+ years.

So basically if we make the playoffs we will have the worst offense and I don't think its particularly close.

[brewers888]

I think we have to face the reality that Yelich is a big drag to this offense instead of being the star we need him to be. If that indeed holds true this offense is probably going to be flat out terrible and not just below average as projected preseason.

[BruisedCrew]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

they are rankings for fantasy stats, not real world value.

I fully understand that, but they are an objective measure of hitting ability. Players who produce good fantasy numbers in categories like OBP, XBH, HR, etc, are going to be valuable real world offensive players too.

If there is a better way to judge players as hitters relative to others I’m open to it. I see a lot of references on this site to projections used to evaluate what to expect from players and teams. Are those any better or different?

The broader point, which I haven’t seen anyone disputing, is that the Brewers do not have any hitters who are among the best at their positions, whereas most championship contenders do have at least one, if not several. 
 

The Brewers offensive deficiencies become even more apparent when you look at the traditionally strong offensive positions: OF, 3B, and 1B. Just seeing the Cardinals with Goldschmidt, Arenado, and O’Neill highlights the disadvantage the Brewers are at when looking at just offense.
 

At some point, it requires extremely good pitching and defense to overcome the offensive advantage that some of these other teams have, especially the ones that also have solid pitching. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Eye Black said:

Brewers offense after 10 games in 2021:

Brewers offense after 10 games in 2022:

Compared to a year ago the strike out rate is improved after 10 games, but the hitting for power has been reduced. 

The lack of HRs has maybe been the biggest problem the Brewers have had so far. 

They don’t have a lineup that is likely to produce strings of hits so, like many teams these days, they are going to score a lot of their runs on HRs.

I think everyone would agree that if the Brewers only hit 81 HRs as a team this year they are in big trouble. 
There is always a lot of attention on batting average with RISP and failure to get the “big hit”. The Brewers biggest problem in this area is more not getting enough opportunities with RISP than failing to convert them. But an occasional 2 or 3 run HR can quickly make up for that. 

[MVP2110]

There has been a ton of talk about Yelich, and admittedly he hasn't been great but he's been far from awful too. 

Below are the OPS+ for our current hitters

Caritini 187

Tellez 151

Narvaez 110

Yelich/McCutchen 91

Adames 80

Hiura 78

Brosseau 68

Renfroe 59

Wong 55

Taylor 50

Jace 19

Cain 2

So far we have 3 above average hitters and 2 of them have been catchers. Yelich & McCutchen have been slightly below average and it gets worse from there. Especially guys like Renfroe, Wong,  Taylor, Cain, and our 3b platoon are really dragging us down. I do expect all of those to improve(Caritini and Rowdy will likely regress) but I think we are focusing on the wrong guys so far

 

[brewers888]

10 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

There has been a ton of talk about Yelich, and admittedly he hasn't been great but he's been far from awful too. 

Below are the OPS+ for our current hitters

Caritini 187

Tellez 151

Narvaez 110

Yelich/McCutchen 91

Adames 80

Hiura 78

Brosseau 68

Renfroe 59

Wong 55

Taylor 50

Jace 19

Cain 2

So far we have 3 above average hitters and 2 of them have been catchers. Yelich & McCutchen have been slightly below average and it gets worse from there. Especially guys like Renfroe, Wong,  Taylor, Cain, and our 3b platoon are really dragging us down. I do expect all of those to improve(Caritini and Rowdy will likely regress) but I think we are focusing on the wrong guys so far

 

If Jace Peterson was hitting like Yelich we wouldn't even be discussing it but when it seems like the best case scenario for the number three hitter is drawing a walk you know the offense is in big trouble.

I question how this team can possibly overcome the real possibility that this is Yelich going forward. He really is our only potential offensive star and if this is it going forward we would certainly be no threat should we make the playoffs.

Attanasio should have just owned his mistake with the Yelich extension and it was his doing and expanded payroll in a meaningful way while we have this pitching. Castellanos was the perfect guy for this team but we went cheap with McCutchen and Renfroe. Lets face it in a couple of years we will be trading Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff and most likely in a rebuild so we should be going for it now.

[brewers888]

Yes I am going off topic but what exactly did the lockout accomplish. The big money teams still spend wildly and our big acquisition was McCutchen.

[MVP2110]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

If Jace Peterson was hitting like Yelich we wouldn't even be discussing it but when it seems like the best case scenario for the number three hitter is drawing a walk you know the offense is in big trouble.

I question how this team can possibly overcome the real possibility that this is Yelich going forward. He really is our only potential offensive star and if this is it going forward we would certainly be no threat should we make the playoffs.

Attanasio should have just owned his mistake with the Yelich extension and it was his doing and expanded payroll in a meaningful way while we have this pitching. Castellanos was the perfect guy for this team but we went cheap with McCutchen and Renfroe. Lets face it in a couple of years we will be trading Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff and most likely in a rebuild so we should be going for it now.

We get it, you think the Brewers should have signed Castellanos. But let's talk about the offense we have right now. Yelich hasn't been great, but he also isn't the reason they are struggling. He's tied for our 4th best hitter but everyone only wants to talk about him. He should probably get moved to leadoff but guys like Renfroe, Wong, Taylor, the 3b platoon, and especially Cain are much bigger reasons why our offense is struggling so far

[brewers888]

9 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

We get it, you think the Brewers should have signed Castellanos. But let's talk about the offense we have right now. Yelich hasn't been great, but he also isn't the reason they are struggling. He's tied for our 4th best hitter but everyone only wants to talk about him. He should probably get moved to leadoff but guys like Renfroe, Wong, Taylor, the 3b platoon, and especially Cain are much bigger reasons why our offense is struggling so far

Of course everyone is going to focus on Yelich when he hits third and is our highest paid player. Yes Cain has been worse but I don't think anyone is expecting much from him at this point.

 

[MVP2110]

9 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Of course everyone is going to focus on Yelich when he hits third and is our highest paid player. Yes Cain has been worse but I don't think anyone is expecting much from him at this point.

 

But that is my point, instead of focusing on what was expected we should focus on actual production. We have had 3 above average hitters so far, a few slightly below average guys, and a whole bunch of duds early on. All this talk of Yelich because of what was "expected" and he's tied for our 4th best hitter. The problem with our lineup has been the lack of production from Renfroe, Wong, Taylor, Cain, and the 3b platoon. Now I do believe they will turn it around, but those guys have been a much bigger reason for why we aren't scoring runs then Yelich has been

[Baldkin]

On 4/17/2022 at 8:27 AM, JackNicholson1974 said:

I’m pretty confident saying this team’s offense isn’t good. Further, that is isn’t good enough to win multiple playoff series.  That it is good enough to make the playoffs. Maybe even win the division. That it isn’t bottom 10.  That by my estimation it is about 7th in the NL.  
 

 NL teams offense better than Milwaukee in no particular order;

Atlanta, NYM, Philly, STL, Dodgers, Padres.

only 6 teams make playoffs so the pitchers have to stop walking so many batters - especially the starters - to make up the difference.

last nights lineup on paper was one of the worst I can remember in the past 5+ years.

Just because you don't remember them doesn't mean they don't exist. 

Just last year they were running out lineups with JBJ, Pablo Reyes, Hiura and Travis Shaw. 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, MVP2110 said:

But that is my point, instead of focusing on what was expected we should focus on actual production. We have had 3 above average hitters so far, a few slightly below average guys, and a whole bunch of duds early on. All this talk of Yelich because of what was "expected" and he's tied for our 4th best hitter. The problem with our lineup has been the lack of production from Renfroe, Wong, Taylor, Cain, and the 3b platoon. Now I do believe they will turn it around, but those guys have been a much bigger reason for why we aren't scoring runs then Yelich has been

The problem with this lineup is that we don’t have one hitter that we know is going to end up being well above average. If Yelich and Adames don’t hit well you have to wonder how this team can score on a consistent basis. Hopefully Urias will be back soon but even then the lineup is full of question marks.

At some point Stearns is going to have to make a major acquisition for this lineup. If Conforto is healthy we should just bite the bullet and give up the draft pick to sign him for one year. 

[MVP2110]

7 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The problem with this lineup is that we don’t have one hitter that we know is going to end up being well above average. If Yelich and Adames don’t hit well you have to wonder how this team can score on a consistent basis. Hopefully Urias will be back soon but even then the lineup is full of question marks.

At some point Stearns is going to have to make a major acquisition for this lineup. If Conforto is healthy we should just bite the bullet and give up the draft pick to sign him for one year. 

Sure, I understand that point, you've made it plenty of times. What I'm saying is if we are talking about what has happened so far this season then we should focus more on the guys who have been outright bad like Renfroe, Wong, Taylor, Cain, and the 3b platoon instead of focusing on Yelich