2022 Brewers Offense

[sveumrules]

Something else to consider when trying to contextualize the offense's performance, via Mike Petriello...

On pulled fly balls & line drives (typically the most valuable batted ball types), in the stadiums that already had humidors installed, offense in those parks is barely down: .003 of OBP and .005 of SLG. In the parks where they put in humidors, OBP is down .035 points and SLG is down .107.

[brewers888]

Surely I will be criticized but how is this team a real threat to win the World Series when the lineup is this bad.

[nate82]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

Surely I will be criticized but how is this team a real threat to win the World Series when the lineup is this bad.

The 2006 Cardinals say hello.  

[Brewcrew82]

David Dahl has a career .826 OPS against righties and provides you another left-handed hitting option in the outfield and at DH. He's still fairly young and has been an all-star hitter as recently as 2019. It's time to bring him up and see what he can do. 

[nate82]

I would rather bring up Singleton as I am not all that sold on Tellez.  

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, nate82 said:

I would rather bring up Singleton as I am not all that sold on Tellez.  

How about both? I've seen just about enough of Cain and McCutchen in the same lineup against righties. 

[Simba2020]

The biggest reason I had no interest in McCutchen is because he really hasn't done much against righties since 2019 yet it was obvious he was going to be the every day DH against RHP and now batting clean up no less. Just wasn't worth $8.5 million when he can only hit lefties and is no longer a good OFer.   

[BruisedCrew]

One of the problems with the popgun offense is the stress it puts on the top relievers. 
 

To win the 85-90 games it will probably take to win the division, they’re going to have to win some games without using Boxberger, Williams, and Hader in almost every one.  A 1-0 win like last night is fine once in a while, but occasionally a team has to take a larger lead into the late innings and get the win without using its top relievers. 

The Brewers only lost 4 games last year when they had a lead after 7 innings. This year they already have lost 2 when they had to rely on the second tier of the bullpen to try to hold a 1 run lead after the offense failed to provide a cushion to support an outstanding start.

[trwi7]

I see this topic is hot.  Something we haven't seen from a Brewers offense in nearly 5 years.

[djoctagone]

keston hiura currently has the club's highest batting average at .240.

the man can hit.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm going to avoid the criticism and just point to baseball as a whole. The Cardinals have the 15th best batting average in baseball at .234, 15th best OBP at .311, and 15th best slugging at .361. Currently a middle of the pack offense is .672 OPS. Offense across baseball is currently very very down. The Cardinals were also the 15th best OPS in 2021 at .725. I'm sure I could get more detailed, but it's very clear that offense is down pretty much across the board in MLB.

[brewerfan82]

12 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Surely I will be criticized but how is this team a real threat to win the World Series when the lineup is this bad.

I'm just not sure what you're trying to accomplish at this point. We all know a better offense would help tremendously. Repeating it over and over without any suggestions or ideas on how to improve it, and only dwelling on what you wish they would have done instead, doesn't really provide anything for the other posters to discuss.

Without magically going back in time and having a bottomless payroll, the realistic thing to do at this point is hope Urias' return combined with 1.) players off to slow starts bouncing back to numbers closer to their projections, and 2.) some nice in-season pickups by MA/DS will help propel the offense to something more respectable and then hope they get hot at the right time at the end of the season.

I am at the point that I would not mind headlining a trade or two with some higher end prospects and/or starting pitching depth to shore up the offense. That said, as long as we're still hovering around the top of the division and winning against teams we should win against, I wouldn't rush anything. Let's see who's still struggling in the next month or two or three so we're targeting the right positions. It'll be interesting to see how the trade market opens up as the season goes on.

[sveumrules]

12 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Surely I will be criticized but how is this team a real threat to win the World Series when the lineup is this bad.

Every team that makes the postseason is a threat to win the WS. Some are bigger threats than others.

Even with the offense as currently constituted 538, FanGraphs & BPro have the Brewers between the 4th-8th highest WS odds in all of MLB.

The only two teams with better WS odds than the Brewers in all three systems are LAD & NYY.

If your satisfaction baseline for the Brewers is “real threat to win the WS” you’ll likely never be satisfied because the economic structure of MLB ensures that teams like MIL & TB will always be underdogs. 

Embrace that mindset & maybe you’ll hear the angels trumpets blaring from heaven above instead of a wet fart noise.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, trwi7 said:

I see this topic is hot.  Something we haven't seen from a Brewers offense in nearly 5 years.

I mean sure, the offense has been brutal to start the year & your schtick is being snide on the internet, but the Brewers scored the 2nd most runs in MLB over a three month stretch just last year.

That might not be surface of the sun or Hansel level hot, but it was a pretty enjoyable burn nonetheless.

[NBBrewFan]

6 hours ago, djoctagone said:

keston hiura currently has the club's highest batting average at .240.

the man can hit.

Well they could be using a new strategy.  Most MLB teams try to improve the worst hitter, while it appears the Brewers are making all of their other hitters worse so the previously worst batter is now the best.  Interesting strategy.

[Brewcrew82]

For those of you in constant panic mode about our offense, here's a nice reassuring chart showing just how much we're underperforming with respect to our expected stats and how much room for growth there is before taking into account potential internal (Urias) and external improvements. As you can see, we are dramatically underperforming our expected stats, while our main rival for the division is among the teams that is overperforming the most. With our elite pitching, which has also underperformed somewhat in the early going, and last year's 95 win campaign the clearest evidence of this team's capabilities, there is absolutely no reason to believe that we are anything but solid favorites to win the division and among the handful of lead contenders in the NL. Does that mean we shouldn't continue to seek avenues to improve the offense?  Of course not, and indeed, it might prove to be the key to finally getting over the hump in the postseason. But it nevertheless shows that we should probably temper our frustrations as the season remains but in its mere infancy. 

[nate82]

I think the Brewers need to give Hiura some more PA's though he is still striking out way too much.  Hiura is currently sitting at a 40% k rate.  I think that is the main reason he is probably not getting more PA's though he is one of the better hitters on the team right now.  

[BuckyBrewer61]

At this moment, Victor Caratini is the only Brewer that can say that his OPS is higher than Jazz Chisolm's slugging percentage alone.

[BallFour]

37 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think the Brewers need to give Hiura some more PA's though he is still striking out way too much.  Hiura is currently sitting at a 40% k rate.  I think that is the main reason he is probably not getting more PA's though he is one of the better hitters on the team right now.  

I keep shaking my head when they decide to use BOTH Renfroe and McCutchen vs. right handed pitching. Hiura has a career OPS+ of 116 vs. righties and a career OPS+ of 56 vs. lefties. Having his 30 plate appearances basically split evenly between righty and lefty doesn't make sense. I know we are probably hurt by Urias being out meaning Brosseau will probably the right handed option at 1B when Urias comes back.

[BallFour]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

For those of you in constant panic mode about our offense, here's a nice reassuring chart showing just how much we're underperforming with respect to our expected stats and how much room for growth there is before taking into account potential internal (Urias) and external improvements. As you can see, we are dramatically underperforming our expected stats, while our main rival for the division is among the teams that is overperforming the most. With our elite pitching, which has also underperformed somewhat in the early going, and last year's 95 win campaign the clearest evidence of this team's capabilities, there is absolutely no reason to believe that we are anything but solid favorites to win the division and among the handful of lead contenders in the NL. Does that mean we shouldn't continue to seek avenues to improve the offense?  Of course not, and indeed, it might prove to be the key to finally getting over the hump in the postseason. But it nevertheless shows that we should probably temper our frustrations as the season remains but in its mere infancy. 

If I were a Reds fan I would find this chart completely depressing considering they are basement dwelling with a 56 wrC+. You would think that wrC+ would be a complete outlier compared to their expected stats and it is not.

[brewers888]

I'm all for giving someone like David Dahl a chance. He surely can't be worse offensively than Cain. Something has to be done or we will once again waste sensational pitching.

[BruisedCrew]

35 minutes ago, BallFour said:

If I were a Reds fan I would find this chart completely depressing considering they are basement dwelling with a 56 wrC+. You would think that wrC+ would be a complete outlier compared to their expected stats and it is not.

Considering that the Reds no longer have several of the players that gave them a potent offense last year (especially Castellanos and Winker), and have also parted ways with a couple of their top pitchers, there is no reason to expect them to challenge .500 this year. Throw in an injury to India and Votto off to a terible start and this is a really bad team that doesn’t figure to improve significantly over the course of the season. 

[BallFour]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

Considering that the Reds no longer have several of the players that gave them a potent offense last year (especially Castellanos and Winker), and have also parted ways with a couple of their top pitchers, there is no reason to expect them to challenge .500 this year. Throw in an injury to India and Votto off to a terible start and this is a really bad team that doesn’t figure to improve significantly over the course of the season. 

Ya not disputing any of that. Just pointing out a 56 wrC+ would have to be the worst of all time and for them not to be the unluckiest team is crazy to me. For comparison sake we are at a 75 wrC+ and we are unluckier than the Reds. 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, BallFour said:

If I were a Reds fan I would find this chart completely depressing considering they are basement dwelling with a 56 wrC+. You would think that wrC+ would be a complete outlier compared to their expected stats and it is not.

If we were in the Reds position we would know the team is in a total teardown and rebuild so it wouldn't matter how bad the offense is since they are looking to draft as high as possible. With our pitching we can win the World Series and that's what makes this pitiful offense so frustrating. 

[BruisedCrew]

Recognizing that the season is still in its infancy, and that offense is down across the league, the Brewers offense has been brutal relative to the rest of the league.

Before this year I only compared the Brewers to teams in the NL because the DH resulted in slightly higher scoring in AL games. Last year with their 3 months of excellent scoring and 3 months of dreary offense, the Brewers scored 4.56 runs per game. That was slightly above the league average of 4.46 runs and placed them 6th in the NL. That was lower than all of the other NL playoff teams except for the Cardinals, who needed their red hot September to rise to 4.36 RPG.

This year with the universal DH I am looking at MLB as a whole, and the overall average RPG has fallen to 4.00 RPG, a drop of about a half a run a game. But, the Brewers scoring so far is just 3.29 RPG (1.27 lower than last season). That places them 26th in MLB and 13th in the NL, ahead of only the DBacks and Reds. Of the teams considered the likely playoff contenders in the NL (Braves, Mets, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers, Giants and Padres), only the Padres at 3.96 RPG are below that MLB average of 4.00.

As I have watched portions of games on MLB TV, I have seen announcers for several contending teams talking about how their offenses have struggled in the early going. Just last weekend that included the Braves, Yankees, Phillies, and Rays, all of which are scoring more than the Brewers.

So, while it is reasonable to expect the Brewers offense to pick up as players heat up and Urias returns to the lineup, the question might be whether they will improve as much as or more than the other contenders,  including teams that will be welcoming back players like Acuna and Tatis.

FanGraphs projected the Brewers to be 20th in MLB in runs scored before the season started. It's going to take more than just players returning to their projected performance for them to have even an average offense, much less one that isn't significantly less potent than the top teams in the NL.

I'm still expecting a trade of one of the top 7 starting pitchers (including Small) to acquire a quality bat. Without it I think the Brewers are destined for a below average offense and at best a placement in the first round of the playoffs as either a wild card team or the lowest seeded division winner.